Merger Activity and Employment: Evidence from the UK Mutual Sector

This paper approaches the performance consequences of mergers from a new direction; namely by analysing their impact on the acquiring firm's demand for labour. It employs a dynamic labour demand model, with an unbalanced panel of UK financial mutuals over the period 1981–1993. The data relate strictly to core financial intermediation activity and are thus particularly appropriate for the paper's purposes. The results are strongly supportive of an efficiency-enhancing interpretation of merger activity. A significant positive initial impact on the acquirer's demand for labour is followed by three years of significant negative effects, a result consistent with the acquisition and subsequent digestion of less efficient targets.     

Asymmetric Adjustment Costs, Asymmetric Pricing and Employment: Evidence from the UK

This paper uses an asymmetric multivariate model to investigate asymmetries in employment and pricing behaviour by firms. This generalises the approach of Granger and Lee (1989) and also exploits the cross equation restrictions on the equations for prices and employment implied by a restricted cost function—the dual to a Cobb‐Douglas production function. Our results suggest that both prices and employment respond asymmetrically to shocks to costs and demand.     

A Major Environmental Tax Reform for the UK: Results for the Economy,Employment and the Environment

This paper reports the results of a major modelling exercise to gain insights into the possible economic and environmental effects of a large-scale environmental tax reform (ETR) in the UK. ETR involves a shift in the target of taxation away from labour or firms towards pollution or the use of natural resources, in such a way that overall tax revenues are unchanged. It is hoped that such a tax shift will deliver environmental improvements while having a neutral or positive effect on the economy. The modelling was set up to explore the extent to which this would be the case. The paper starts with a brief literature review identifying the theoretical hypotheses relating to ETR and summarising the results of some of the evaluations of ETRs that have been implemented. It then briefly describes the model used for the analysis in this paper. The main body of the paper then describes the scenarios set up to explore the main impacts and the results of modelling these scenarios. These results suggest that substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be achieved with minimal impacts on output and an overall increase in employment, such that ETR emerges as a very attractive policy for GHG emission reduction.     

Real Wages,Demand and Employment in the UK 1921–1938: A Disaggregated Analysis

This paper uses the Layard and Nickell model of the labour market to examine the determinants of employment at a sectoral level for the interwar UK economy. Sectoral level data permits examination of the differing responses to changes in the determinants of employment. Estimation of employment functions indicates significant elasticities with respect to aggregate demand variables across a wide range of sectors but less support for a negative real wage effect, particularly in those industries responsible for major losses in employment. The evidence is therefore more consistent with the low-aggregate-demand explanation of labour market behaviour than it is with the high-real-wage hypothesis.     

Structural Features of Female Employment Status and Earnings Mobility: The Experience in Germany

Structural changes in basic economic indicators, changes in traditional role patterns, and in female employment behavior shed light on the performance of the European labor markets in the 90s. This paper focuses on the cyclical sensitivity of women's employment status and earnings position in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we test the hypothesis that labor market adjustments are not gender-neutral but affect women's employment status and women's relative earnings position to a greater extent than those of men. Cross-sectional as well as longitudinal analysis indicate positive effects on female employment status and earnings position during a period with worsening economic indicators. Logistic regression analysis confirms an increasing likelihood of an upward earnings mobility for women in the 90s. Notwithstanding these positive trends the results show that - due to social norms and attitudes - women are still discriminated against in the labor market and in terms of their relative earnings position. Thus social policy is called upon to improve women's social and employment conditions.     

The Demand for Private Medical Insurance in the UK: A Cohort Analysis

This paper examines the determinants of the demand for private health insurance in the United Kingdom from 1978 to 1996 using a pseudo-cohort panel. The focus is on the impact of public and private sector quality, generational change, and past purchase on demand. The results indicate that there has been generational change in buying behaviour, that the number of senior doctors employed in the public sector impacts upon demand for the private alternative, and that there is limited impact of habit in purchase. Changes to the structure of labour contracts in the NHS may affect demand for the private alternative.     

The Effects of Market Liberalization on the Relative Earnings of Chinese Women

In this paper, we explore the effects of differences in labor market institutions and the degree of market liberalization on the size and composition of gender wages gaps in China's urban labor markets. We use enterprise-ownership type, enterprise age, and workers' methods of finding employment as proxies for the extent of market liberalization. We find both the size of the wage gaps and the proportion of the gap left unexplained by differences in observed characteristics largest in the most liberalized joint-venture sector and smallest in the least liberalized state sector. We next investigate the effects of differences in the wage structure on the gender wage gaps. We find that differences in the wage structure, in general, and the degree of wage dispersion, in particular, are extremely important in accounting for the larger wage gaps in the joint-venture and collective sectors relative to the state-owned sector. J. Comp. Econ., June 2002 30(4), pp. 709–731. Department of Economics, Bates College, Lewiston, Maine 04240. © 2002 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: Numbers: J16, J31, J71, O15, O53, P23.     

可持续增长等式应用中应注意的有关问题

可持续增长等式应用中应注意的有关问题@葛文雷$东华大学旭日工商管理学院@宗欢$东华大学旭日工商管理学院     

Employment polarisation and inequality in the UK and Hungary

This paper uses household budget survey microdata to explorethe growth in household income inequality in Hungary in theperiod 1987–1995, and compares it with inequality in theUK in 1995–96. Decomposition of inequality according toboth household characteristics and income sources shows that,while inequality did grow rapidly in Hungary over the earlyTransition period, several factors prevented its growth to higherlevels. One of these factors, the distribution of employmentand earnings between households, is explored in some detail.While there was considerable polarisation between householdswith and without employed members in the UK in 1995–96,this was less of a feature in Hungary, in spite of a massivewithdrawal of men and women from the labour market between 1987and 1995. Rather, a narrowing of the gender pay gap and a continuedhigh level of female participation in employment appears tohave ensured that, even as earnings inequality in Hungary increasedto the extent that it surpassed earnings inequality in the UK,the distribution of household earnings, and the distributionof household incomes, remained more equal in Hungary.     

Pricing Personal Services: An Empirical Study of Earnings in the UK Prostitution Industry

The hedonic pricing method is used to investigate the way in which the prices of prostitutes' services are determined. The data used in the analysis are extracted from an internet site, each observation being based on a report submitted by a client. The factors affecting price are identified in a regression framework, and combined with other information to provide estimates of the earnings, both aggregate and individual, for a sub‐sector of this underground service industry in the United Kingdom. Comparison of these earnings' estimates with data on earnings from alternative employment then allows us to estimate the compensating wage differential, and also to verify the theoretical prediction that prostitutes' earnings are positively related to earnings from alternative employment.     

The Motives for Joint Ventures: A Transaction Costs Analysis of Japanese MNES in the UK

What factors determine the choice of Japanese companies between part and full ownership of their UK subsidiaries? In seeking to answer this question, this study employs data of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI), through joint ventures, in the UK, not previously used. The main findings of the econometric work presented is that transaction costs are the principal consideration when Japanese firms choose between part and full ownership of their UK subsidiaries{softhyphen}. Variables that have featured prominently in studies relating to either US parents or for subsidiaries in the US do not appear to play a significant role. The European Union (EU) market appears to be the target of Japanese foreign direct investment in the UK.     

Long-run sectoral development: Time-series evidence for the German economy

In economic development, long-run structural change among the three main sectors of an economy follows a typical pattern with the primary sector (agriculture, mining) first dominating, followed by the secondary sector (manufacturing) and finally by the tertiary sector (services) in terms of employment and value added. We reconsider the verbal theoretical work of Fourastié and build a simple model encompassing its main features, most notably the macroeconomic influences on the sectoral development. Estimation and analysis with German data for the period 1850–2001 show that this model is quite capable of replicating the empirical facts.     

Casual Employment in Australia: A Further Analysis

Casual employment is steadily increasing its share of total employment in Australia. This paper analyses some of the factors that have led to this situation by extending the work of Simpson, Dawkins and Madden (1997). The results, while confirming some of their research and clarifying the role of union membership in limiting the spread of casual employment, also show that the determinants of casual employment in Australia are sensitive to the period of estimation and the form of model used.     

Smooth and Sticky Adjustment: A Comparative Analysis of the US and UK

This paper adopts the methodology of the microeconometric labor literature to analyze a common assertion from trade economists that reallocation within sectors is less costly than between sectors. Findings are compared across two countries (the UK and US) which have experienced very different recent aggregate unemployment experiences. Workers previously employed in "declining" sectors are more mobile than those employed in 'expanding' sectors in both countries, and individuals are more likely to switch sector the longer they are unemployed. A plausible explanation for this is that individuals initially attempt to find jobs that complement their general and specific skills in order to accrue the associated rewards, and move sector only as this prospect diminishes. This would seem to accord with the 'smooth adjustment hypothesis' which proposes that intraindustry adjustments are less costly than interindustry ones.     

The frequency and magnitude of earnings management: Time-series and multi-threshold comparisons

We measure the frequency and magnitude of earnings management assuming earnings follow a mixed-normal distribution. We show that the frequency of earnings management is the highest when firms try to meet analysts' forecasted earnings and furthermore the trend is magnified in recent years. Additionally, more firms manage earnings to avoid earnings decreases rather than to avoid negative earnings. Furthermore, the magnitude of earnings management is the greatest when firms try to avoid earnings decreases. Earnings managements to avoid negative and decreased earnings are lower in recent years, and the magnitude of earnings management to meet forecasted earnings became dominant after 2001.     

性别工资差异中的企业效应

现有对性别工资差异的研究大多是基于个人样本的分析而忽略了企业的作用。本文运用企业和工人匹配的调查数据研究性别工资差异中的企业效应。研究发现,在工资决定方程中加入企业效应后工人的教育回报显著下降,且在性别工资差异的分解中加入企业效应后禀赋效应和价格效应所占的比例也显著下降,企业在性别工资差异中有着非常重要的作用。进一步研究发现,企业的外部市场环境和内部制度特征是决定企业性别工资差异程度的重要因素,市场竞争激烈的企业、经常采用计件工资制的企业以及内部职工收入差距较大的企业性别工资差异较大,小规模企业和私有产权比重较大的企业也呈现较大的性别工资差异,但工人的谈判能力有缩小性别工资差异的作用。     

Wages and Employment: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Three Policy Issues*

This paper surveys recent developments in the theory of employment and wages and describes a framework for policy analysis which recognizes the existence of monopolistic elements in labour markets. Wages are determined by firm-union bargains, firms choose the number of jobs, and workers influence the fraction of jobs that is filled through search. The framework is applied to the analysis of the wage and employment effects of indexation, tax-based incomes policies and profit-sharing.     

Time-series model forecasts and structural breaks: evidence from Spanish pre-EMU interest rates

Analysis of the future behaviour of economic variables can be biased if structural breaks are not considered. When these structural breaks are present, the in-sample fit of a model gives us a poor guide to ex ante forecast performance. This problem is true for both univariate and multivariate analysis and can be extremely important when co-integration relationships are analysed. The main goal of this article is to analyse the impact of structural breaks on forecast accuracy evaluation. We focus on forecasting several interest rates from the Spanish interbank money market. In order to carry out the analysis, we perform two forecasting exercises: (a) without structural breaks and (b) when structural breaks are explicitly considered. We use new sequential methods in order to estimate change-points in an endogenous way. This method allows us to detect structural breaks in all four rates in May 1993. However, the effects of these breaks are not very strong, since we found scarce gains in forecasting accuracy when the structural breaks are included in the models.     

出口退税与我国贸易出口增长——基于时间序列数据的协整分析和政策效应检验

2008年金融危机以来,我国连续七次调高出口退税率。论文以1985-2009年的年度和月度数据为基础,出口退税与贸易出口的协整分析表明二者存在长期均衡关系,脉冲响应分析表明出口退税的变动短期内对出口会形成明显的冲击,引起出口的短期波动。均值T检验结果表明,2004年1月-2008年10月的出口退税政策效果显著,但由于受金融危机冲击、外部需求减少、政策效应滞后等因素的影响,2008年11月-2009年4月的政策效果不显著。