Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition

This paper reviews the political economy of economic growth in post-communist economies making the transition to free markets, focusing on the role of economic policy and institutions. We test the hypothesis that better institutions, measured in terms of economic freedom, contribute to growth. To begin with, the empirical results from the cross-section of transition economies confirm this hypothesis. Yet the question is deeper than that since there is an interactive effect between economic freedom and investment. The paper concludes that non-linearities are present in the growth model.     

How I learned to stop worrying and love the crisis

We investigate the effects of economic crises on the subsequent economic, performance, economic reform, democratization and institutional change. Our analysis is based on a sample of post-communist countries, most of which experienced severe economic, crises during the 1990s. We find that the severity of crisis has a positive impact on the subsequent pace of economic reform, economic growth and, with a delay, on investment and institutional change. Episodes of high inflation, moreover, translate into lower subsequent inflation. Crises thus serve as catalysts of reform and institutional change and lead to better long-term economic performance.     

A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics

Parameter estimation under model uncertainty is a difficult and fundamental issue in econometrics. This paper compares the performance of various model averaging techniques. In particular, it contrasts Bayesian model averaging (BMA) — currently one of the standard methods used in growth empirics — with a new method called weighted-average least squares (WALS). The new method has two major advantages over BMA: its computational burden is trivial and it is based on a transparent definition of prior ignorance. The theory is applied to and sheds new light on growth empirics where a high degree of model uncertainty is typically present.     

Estimating the effects of democratization in African countries: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper analyzes impacts of democratization in Africa, including effects of improved, property rights on economic growth and of greater political participation on civil violence. Democracy is endogenous to economic growth and other outcomes, which hampers most, empirical analysis. This paper uses a minimum distance simultaneous equations estimation to, account for all endogenous variables while including time and country fixed effects. The method yields a test of fit of the model, which is strong. Results indicate a positive significant effect of property rights institutions on economic growth in the presence of time and country fixed effects. Estimates also show a negative significant effect of political participation on civil violence and, strong effects of aid per capita on both economic growth and civil violence.     

Can Institutional Change Impact High-technology Firm Growth?: Evidence from Germany’s Neuer Markt

To facilitate the transformation of the German economy from the traditional manufacturing industries towards emerging new technologies, a new segment of the Frankfurt exchange was introduced in 1997 — the Neuer Markt. To examine whether the Neuer Markt was successful, we compare the relationship between firm size and growth for firms listed on the Neuer Markt and contrast the results with two benchmarks: (1) for German firms prior to the 1990s (to reflect the older traditional manufacturing sector) and (2) for the stylized results for the US. This study provides evidence that not only did many new firms obtain funding from the Neuer Markt; but that for the first time in recent history, Germany succeeded in enabling smaller firms to grow faster than larger firms. This suggests that the new policies were not only successful in promoting a new type of firm that otherwise might not exist, but in transforming the sources of growth and innovation within the German economy.     

中国1978～2002年的财政制度、经济增长与转轨:理论与事实

本文在回顾中国经济转轨的历史上,运用动态最优化和博弈论研究了财政制度对中国经济增长和经济转轨的影响,并结合1978～2002年的数据进行描述性分析和统计检验。本文结论认为：中央政府的经济改革从国有企业开始源于经济增长和财政两个方面的原因;在1986-1993年中央政府长期背负财政赤字是1990-1993年通货膨胀的根本原因;“分税制”改革最直接的结果是中央政府宏观调控能力的提高,也影响着货币政策和国有银行改革。     

交通又好又快发展诊断研究

从“又好又快”与“又快又好”关系、又好又快发展特征和发展要求三方面研究了区域交通“又好又快”发展的内涵;基于又好又快内涵分别从“好”的方面与“快”的方面提出了诊断指标体系;基于双层模糊综合评价研究了交通“又好又快”诊断方法与过程。以江苏省2006年综合交通状况为例对其“又快又好”所处状态进行诊断。文中对区域交通“又好又快”发展健康状态提供了一种诊断思路与方法。     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

制度内生化均衡过程和我国经济增长制度有效性检验

本文在制度内生化均衡分析的基础上,构建出经济增长制度内生化决定机制。研究认为当事人资源禀赋和控制权结构决定制度安排和制度结构;一国初始资源禀赋和控制权结构决定宏观政治经济制度,制度内生于经济发展并决定经济增长;当事人拥有资源越多和价值越大,控制权结构和资源禀赋越不平衡,制度和经济将越无法获得有效增长。利用我国1978~2005年时序数据进行Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,结果显示,控制权结构、制度安排与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,控制权结构决定制度并进而决定经济增长效率。     

政府规模、政府支出增长与经济增长关系的非线性研究

本文运用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),在非线性的框架下对政府规模与经济增长关系的渐进演变展开深入研究,并对可能引发两者关系结构性转变的警戒政府规模进行有效估算。研究结果表明,政府规模与经济增长之间存在着非线性关系,即随着政府规模的逐步增大,由于税负增加等因素的影响,使得政府支出增加所产生的负效应影响逐步凸显,而政府规模进一步扩大并超过警戒水平时,过度拥挤的政府支出对经济增长将由促进作用转变为阻碍作用。研究还发现,尽管我国政府支出增长与经济增长的关系参数值有所下降,但由于基础设施落后,公共物品与公共服务供给仍然相对不足,政府支出的增加仍有助于促进经济的进一步发展。     

Firm-level determinants of tax evasion in transition economies

Business tax evasion is an important issue for governments. Yet the factors that determine business tax evasion have not been sufficiently examined in the literature in general, and in transition contexts in particular. To address this gap, this study uses the WB/EBRD Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) database with a sample of over 12,692 firms from 26 transition economies. Applying various modelling strategies, we argue that tax evasion is a function of firm-level and institutional-level variables. We contribute to the literature by providing robust evidence showing that the perceived tax burden has a positive impact on tax evasion. We also find that the tax evasive behaviour of firms is positively influenced by low trust in government and in the judicial system as well as by higher perceptions of corruption and higher compliance costs. We find that smaller firms, individual businesses and firms in sectors that are less visible to the tax administration are more likely to get involved in evasive behaviour. Overall, institutional factors play an important role in determining firms’ tax evasion behaviour in transition economies. This finding has important policy implications.     

Diverging trends in health care use between 2010 and 2016: Evidence from three groups of transition countries

This paper investigates changes in health care use in 28 transition countries using data on more than 60,000 households from the “Life in Transition” surveys II and III conducted in 2010 and 2016. Following the literature, the transition countries are divided into three groups – Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and the non-Baltic states of the former Soviet Union with Mongolia – based on the speed of their transformation. Regressions based on Andersen’s conceptual framework show no difference in public health care use between the three groups in 2010. By 2016, however, the share of households using the public health care system dropped by remarkable 17.1–22.2% points in Southern Europe and 13.5–27.1% points in the former Soviet Union with Mongolia compared to Eastern Europe. Moreover, by 2016, the probability of a household using the private health care system (with no use of public health care) in Southern Europe and the former Soviet Union was 7.5–18.7% points higher than in Eastern Europe, whereas it was 2.9–6.8% points lower than in Eastern Europe back in 2010. The analyses indicate that differences in household characteristics, as well as perceived corruption and quality of public health care, help to understand these diverging trends in health care use in the three groups of transition countries between 2010 and 2016.     

Determinants of bank interest margins in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparison with the West

We investigate the determinants of bank interest margins in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). We assess to what extent the relatively high bank margins in CEEC can be attributed to low efficiency or non-competitive market conditions, controlling for the macroeconomic environment and the influence of foreign and state-owned banks. We systematically compare CEEC banks with Western European banks. Our results indicate that banking in the CEEC is on a virtuous path, at least in the EU accession countries: Increased efficiency benefits customers, while capital adequacy supports systemic stability. In the non-accession countries, important policy actions are required.     

Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI in transition economies. We make an attempt to overcome some problems associated with previous studies; the aggregation problem, inadequate measures of volatility, short-run focus and the endogeneity problem. Using a GARCH specification, we focus on long-run volatility, while we control for the endogeneity problem by applying SYS-GMM estimation. The obtained results show that the impact of the unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI differs among economic activities since 2000. As part of the re-estimation exercise, we use two alternative measures of volatility to avoid arbitrariness. The obtained results are to a large extent in accordance with the first one.     

Some models and measures for evaluating performances with DEA: past accomplishments and future prospects

This paper covers some of the past accomplishments of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and some of its future prospects. It starts with the “engineering-science” definitions of efficiency and uses the duality theory of linear programming to show how, in DEA, they can be related to the Pareto–Koopmans definitions used in “welfare economics” as well as in the economic theory of production. Some of the models that have now been developed for implementing these concepts are then described and properties of these models and the associated measures of efficiency are examined for weaknesses and strengths along with measures of distance that may be used to determine their optimal values. Relations between the models are also demonstrated en route to delineating paths for future developments. These include extensions to different objectives such as “satisfactory” versus “full” (or “strong”) efficiency. They also include extensions from “efficiency” to “effectiveness” evaluations of performances as well as extensions to evaluate social-economic performances of countries and other entities where “inputs” and “outputs” give way to other categories in which increases and decreases are located in the numerator or denominator of the ratio (=engineering-science) definition of efficiency in a manner analogous to the way output (in the numerator) and input (in the denominator) are usually positioned in the fractional programming form of DEA. Beginnings in each of these extensions are noted and the role of applications in bringing further possibilities to the fore is highlighted.

发达国家城市流浪乞讨救助政策及其对我国的启示

本文总结概括了美国、英国、法国、日本等国家救助社会流浪乞讨人员的政策经验.在结合国情的基础上,从完善救助政策、发挥非政府组织的作用、健全社会保障制度、加强技能培训、强化部门合作等方面提出了我国救助社会流浪乞讨人员的建议.     

Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

规模报酬递增的增长模型——李约瑟之谜解释

本文建立了一个规模报酬递增的增长模型,用以解释李约瑟之谜,即“为什么工业革命没有发生在中国,而是发生在西欧”。模型结果显示,在农业社会,人口增长率越高,技术进步速率越快。不过,到工业革命前夕,技术进步内在机制发生变化,人口增长率与技术进步速率呈负相关关系,却与人口存量呈正相关关系。这一改变是李约瑟之谜的症结所在。     

快速城市化地区跨行政边界的城市增长模式探析

近年来,随着社会经济的发展,快速城市化地区面临的土地资源稀缺问题日益突出,在一些行政单元之间的边界区,正逐渐形成新的增长极,产生新的增长模式.将跨行政边界的土地开发和利用等新增长模式划分为市场主导、政府主导和市场与政府互动等类型,并选择相应的典型案例,分析不同动力机制下的参与主体、开发特征和效果等.认为市场与政府互动,解决各利益群体之间的协调问题是促进边界区资源合理配置和协调发展的重要方式.     

市场经济条件下城市空间增长的多方案比较研究--以珠海市为例

市场经济条件下,城市增长中不确定性因素增多,随之而来的是城市发展前景的不确定性大大增加,对城市总体规划编制办法提出了新要求.作者以珠海为例,探索适应新形势需要的方法和手段:假设方案比较与测试等,以期强化规划对城市未来发展的适应性和成果的可操作性.