More on tariffs and non-traded goods

The general equilibrium effects of a small tariff on relative prices are analysed within a demand and supply model which provides further insights into Dornbusch's (1974) results. It is shown that the elasticity of the price of non-traded goods with respect to the tariff is a weighted average of the degree of substitutability between non-traded goods and importables on the supply side and that on the demand side. When complementarity is ruled out, the price of non-traded goods increases with the tariff, but less than proportionally.     

Financial repression and the relative price of non-traded goods

The financial structure of LDCs affects differences in relative prices among nations. We show empirically that financial repression depresses the relative price of non-traded goods.     

The sources of the U.S. money demand instability

The structural stability of money demand relations has been the issue of a substantial number of empirical studies. In most studies for the U.S. structural breaks were found in the 1970s and the 1980s. In the present study a money demand function is specified in error-correction-form which involves realM1, realGNP, the deflator and a short-term interest rate. Using flexible least squares it is shown for the U.S. that the long-run coefficients ofM1, GNP and the interest rate are relatively stable over a period of more than 30 years while the deflator does not enter the relation. The instability of the relation is mainly due to changes in the short-term dynamics.The author thanks Martin Moryson for outstanding research assistance. The computations were performed with a GAUSS program written by the late Wolfgang Schneider.     

The changing structure of cost and demand for the U.S. telecommunications industry

This paper formulates a multiproduct structural model to examine the evolution of the structures of production and demand and their dynamic interaction, over an extended period, 1935–1987, in the U.S. telecommunications industry. We estimate the degree of scale economies, cost elasticities, input price elasticities and the determinants of demand for outputs and for various factors of production. The contributions of the quasi-fixed inputs, such as R&D and physical capital, in the evolution of this industry are evaluated. A number of important issues like the changing characteristics of demand for and cost of local and toll services and the variation of price–cost margin over time are examined under different economic conditions, market structures and regulatory environments. We also analyze the effects of the 1984 divestiture of the Bell System on the cost structure, employment and capital formation of the U.S. telecommunications industry.     

Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S.

This paper examines the effect of changes in the level and volatility of exchange rates on the demand for money. It hypothesizes that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative influence on money demand separate from the effect of the level of exchange rates. Using U.S. data covering the period from 1974.1 to 1990.4, it is found that, regardless of whether the adjustment process is modeled as an error-correction or a partial-adjustment model, exchange rate volatility is negatively related to the demand for real M2 balances. This relationship is found to be more pronounced when exchange rates are expressed in real terms. The results imply that money demand responds to both the volatility of domestic prices relative to foreign prices and to the volatility of nominal exchange rates. Little evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that the level of exchange rates exerts a significant influence on money demand.     

Development policies in the presence of unemployment and non-traded intermediate goods

The role of non-traded intermediate goods has not been satisfactorily studied in the context of a developing economy with involuntary unemployment. In this paper we examine this phenomenon within the framework of a Harris-Todaro-type migration model. We show that the presence of the intermediate good creates a strong linkage between the rural and urban regions. Under certain reasonable assumptions on factor intensities, this linkage causes an increase in the price of the urban good to benefit the intermediate good as well, and an expansion in the urban output to drive an expansion in the production of the intermediate good. Finally, wage subsidies to urban firms increase the unemployment rate, despite the ameliorating effect of the inter-sectoral linkage.We would like to thank M. Ali Khan, Bela Balassa, Will Carrington, and the members of the J. H. U. Trade and Development and Summer Seminars for advice and comments. We would also like to thank two anonymous referees for pointing out several errors in an earlier draft. Any remaining errors are, of course, ours.     

International migration,non-traded goods and economic welfare in the source country

"This paper examines the economic effects of emigration in a source country producing both traded and non-traded commodities. It is shown that, even if the economy faces fixed terms of trade, emigration can still affect the welfare of the non-migrants, and the direction of the effect in this context will always be negative." The focus is on migration from developing countries.     

Factor movements with three factors and two goods in the U.S. economy

Ruffin's (1981) theoretical finding that extreme factors must be enemies and the middle factor must be a friend of both extreme factors, with constant product prices, in a three-factor, two-good general equilibrium model, is confirmed empirically for the United States. Results are used to explain the positions factor owners take on issues of factor movement policies.     

Real exchange rate dynamics in the presence of non-traded goods and transaction costs

This paper studies the role of non-traded goods and transaction costs in accounting for the puzzling behavior of real exchange rates. We show that introducing the transaction costs and non-traded goods in an otherwise standard competitive model dramatically improves its ability to rationalize observed real exchange rate dynamics.     

Debt and capital accumulation in a two-sector model with non-traded goods

The paper examines optimal debt and capital accumulation for an open economy which faces an imperfect international capital market. The major finding is that the optimal pattern of debt and capital accumulation is affected by relative factor intensities. Factor intensities determine whether substitution or complementary relationships exist between debt and capital. The relationship between the country's net wealth and its two components financial and productive are also determined by factor intensities.     

Bounds on the willingness to pay for non-traded goods: A possibility theorem

This note contains a proof of the following theorem. If an agent's preferences for traded goods are known, and if the quantity of a non-traded good provided him alters his demand for traded goods, then it is possible to place bounds on his willingness to pay for increments in this quantity.     

Price and quality effects on the demand for U.S. graduate business programs

This study identifies the factors that influence the demand for U.S. graduate business programs, using the entire population of schools as the basis for analysis. The study found that higher education institutions, at least graduate business programs, are not immune to the market forces of cost, quality, and trend. Schools that provide better value enjoy success, and those that do not, endure setbacks. Program demand was most sensitive to the tuition change and was moderately elastic. Schools that increased their tuition faster than others suffered significant enrollment declines. In addition, programs that were either accredited by the International Association for Management Education, publicly funded schools, or located in regions with generally rising enrollments enjoyed increased enrollments. Those that were either not accredited, private schools, or less favorably located suffered declines.     

Traded and non-traded goods: An empirical test with Nigerian data

An income expenditure model is used to describe the relationship between the balance of payments and price inflation of non-traded goods. Real and monetary approaches to the balance of payments suggest different relationships among these variables, and compatible elements of the monetary approach are incorporated into the income-expenditure model. The model is then tested with Nigerian data for the period 1960–1979. The pattern of economic growth and conduct of monetary policy make the Nigerian economy a convenient test of the empirical significance of these macroeconomic relationships.     

A differential approach to U.S. import demand

We apply the differential production theory approach to U.S. import data (1921-70) without imposing restrictions on Divisia elasticities. The estimates of these elasticities are 0.58 for the imports of foods, 0.95 for those of crude materials, 1.34 for semi-manufactures, and 1.16 for finished manufactures.     

Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods

We analyze a relation between interest rate controls and equilibrium determinacy using a two-country model featuring traded and non-traded goods. In addition, parameters of preference and production may differ between the two countries. We find that macroeconomic stability strongly depends on such heterogeneity including monetary policy, and that it is easier to generate determinate equilibrium under perfect liberalization of the economy, but to operate monetary policy in the economy with non-traded goods.     

Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

Aid,non‐traded goods,and growth

Abstract We examine the effects of foreign aid in a small recipient country with two traded goods, one non‐traded good, and two factors. Learning by doing and intersectoral knowledge spillovers contribute to endogenous growth. We obtain two main results. First, a permanent increase in untied aid raises (or lowers) the growth rate if and only if the non‐traded good is more capital intensive (or effective labour intensive) than the operating traded good. Second, a permanent increase in untied aid raises welfare if the non‐traded good is more capital intensive than the operating traded good; otherwise, it may raise or lower welfare.     

International migration,non-traded goods and economic welfare in the source country: a comment

"Labor emigration redistributes income in a two factor, two good economy where one good is internationally non-traded. Labor's nominal wage rises as nominal capital payments fall. Recent research has shown that the prices of non-traded goods rise, causing society's welfare to decline. Here the induced change in the real income of each factor is considered separately. There is an ambiguity with regard to the real income of non-emigrating labor. If labor spends a relatively small fraction of income on the non-traded goods, its real income may rise, even though society suffers the loss of welfare."