经济政策不确定性对中国农产品贸易的影响研究

文章基于2005—2020年中国与23个国家相关数据,运用扩展的引力模型,分析了经济政策不确定性对中国农产品贸易的影响。结果表明：国内经济政策不确定性对中国农产品出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,尤其是在中国对新兴市场和发展中经济体农产品出口贸易中的抑制作用更大;贸易对象国经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口贸易具有显著促进作用;贸易对象国经济政策不确定性在中国与新兴市场和发展中经济体的农产品贸易中所起的促进作用大于中国与发达经济体农产品贸易。在此基础上,提出减少国内经济政策的短期调整频率、密切关注主要贸易对象国经济政策的变动情况、鼓励农产品出口企业技术创新、深化区域经贸合作、加快培育和发展农产品贸易新业态新模式等政策建议,以促进中国农产品贸易持续健康发展。     

中国文化产品出口贸易成本的测度与影响因素分析——基于中国文化贸易出口面板数据的实证检验

在Anderson和Wincoop(2003)模型基础上推导得出比目前常用的Novy(2006)模型更具微观应用基础的用以测度一国进出口贸易成本的一般均衡模型。基于推导模型对1998-2013年中国文化产品的出口贸易成本水平进行测度,并对影响其出口贸易成本的因素进行检验。研究结果表明:中国文化产品出口贸易成本总体呈下降趋势,向发展中经济体出口的贸易成本和贸易难度相对于发达经济体更低;贸易伙伴与中国的实际人均收入差额、地理距离、文化差异水平、平均名义关税水平、贸易对外开放度及净贸易条件等因素与中国文化产品出口贸易成本正相关,人民币实际有效汇率水平、陆地相邻和优惠的贸易安排等因素与其负相关,传统的地理距离因素对中国文化产品出口贸易成本的影响尤为明显。     

中国对美国出口贸易影响因素的计量分析

随着经济全球化的到来,中美贸易规模发生了巨大的变化,尤其是2001年中国加入WTO以来,中美贸易关系在总体发展的同时,不断上演变奏插曲=除了反倾销等惯用的贸易救济措施和迫使人民币升值的策略,美国开始采用不同以往的方式和手段,以对中国造成更大的压力,实现自身的经济和政治目的。由于中国对美的对外贸易依存度很高,因此,有必要深入研究影响中国向美国出口的因素。根据传统国际贸易理论,影响一国出口的因素有：进口国GDP规模、出口商品价格、进出口国之间的汇率。结合到中美两国的实际情况,影响中国向美国出口的因素还有：中国劳动力工资水平、美国内部平均失业率、通过建立中国对美国出口贸易的计量模型,运用多元回归分析方法对影响中国对美国出口贸易的因素进行分析,得出影响中国对美出口的主要因素有：美国GDP规模、中国零售价格指数、中国劳动力平均工资指数、美元对人民币汇率。并试图据此结论找到发展中美贸易的对策。     

当前贸易摩擦呈现四大特点

一是摩擦数量居高不下且呈增长之势,强度也在增大。从数量上看,根据WTO统计,在WTO成员发起的反倾销调查中,约每7起就有1起涉及中国出口产品。在2003年国外对中国实施贸易救济措施的59起案件中,有15起涉案金额超过千万美元,占整个涉案金额的95．6％,其中涉案金额过亿美元的就有4起之多,占整个涉案金额的81．18％,单是美国针对中国出口家具的反倾销案,其涉案金额就高达9．6亿美元。同时,解决摩擦的方式已由双边转向了多边。     

全球运用贸易救济措施的新动态及对我国的启示

在全球经贸交往日益紧密的今天,合理运用贸易救济措施早已取代大规模你来我往的原始贸易战,成为各成员方保护国内相关产业、应付贸易摩擦的主要工具.而我国作为全球主要贸易大国和贸易救济措施涉案最多的国家,合理分析和准确把握当今全球运用贸易救济措施新动向,借鉴国际经验,无论是对国内产业的保护还是规避贸易救济措施对我国出口贸易的损伤无疑都具有十分重要的意义.     

全球运用贸易救济措施的新动态及对我国的启示

在全球经贸交往日益紧密的今天,合理运用贸易救济措施早已取代大规模你来我往的原始贸易战,成为各成员方保护国内相关产业、应付贸易摩擦的主要工具。而我国作为全球主要贸易大国和贸易救济措施涉案最多的国家,合理分析和准确把握当今全球运用贸易救济措施新动向,借鉴国际经验,无论是对国内产业的保护还是规避贸易救济措施对我国出口贸易的损伤无疑都具有十分重要的意义。     

我国渔业国际竞争力分析及提升策略研究

我国是世界渔业大国,水产品一直在我国农产品出口贸易中占有重要的地位。文章分析了我国水产品出口贸易的现状,并用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数和贸易竞争优势指数评价了我国水产品出口的竞争力,研究表明我国水产品出口贸易总体上具有一定比较优势,但我国的水产品贸易的国际化程度很低,且表现出比较优势不断下降的趋势。最后,针对影响我国水产品出口贸易的因素提出相应对策。     

主要贸易伙伴国对华实施贸易救济措施的比较分析与应对策略

近年来,特别是全球金融危机以来,中国已成为各国发起贸易救济措施的众矢之的。在众多对华实行贸易救济措施的经济体中,欧盟、美国、日本作为我国的三大贸易伙伴,且作为在世界上有较强影响力的经济体,对我国出口的直接影响以及由于示范效应带来的间接影响都十分显著。因此,文章将基于相关数据对欧盟、美国、日本对华贸易救济措施的实施进行比较分析并提出相应的建议措施。     

中国金融服务业产业内贸易的影响因素与发展对策

在分析中国金融服务贸易状况的基础上,采用G-L指数和S指数对中国金融服务产业内贸易水平进行静态和动态测算,并基于2000—2011年中国大陆与香港、美国、日本、德国、新加坡、法国、俄罗斯7个国家和地区的双边贸易数据,将静态面板数据分析和动态面板数据分析相结合,对影响中国金融服务产业内贸易发展的因素进行考察。结果表明:人力资本投入是影响中国金融服务产业内贸易的首要因素,且长期来看其重要性不断加大;其次是人均收入水平差异和外商直接投资,且外商直接投资对于中国金融服务的促进作用需要长时间才逐渐显现。而市场规模差异、货物贸易密集度和贸易不平衡程度等对中国金融服务产业内贸易的影响则不明显。最后针对实证分析结果从加大外商直接投资、人力资本投入等方面提出中国金融服务业产业内贸易的发展对策。     

收入多样性影响我国对RCEP伙伴国出口贸易的分析

在当前贸易保护主义盛行的大背景下,RCEP的签署对我国出口贸易具有举足轻重的意义。本文基于引力模型,利用2010-2019年RCEP成员GDP总量、人均GDP、国家间距离及出口贸易的面板数据,分析收入多样性对我国对其他RCEP成员出口贸易的影响。研究结果显示:RCEP各类型收入经济体的GDP总量对我国对其出口贸易有显著促进作用;RCEP各类收入经济体的人均GDP对我国对其出口贸易的影响并不一致;RCEP各类型成员与我国的距离对出口贸易的影响为负,但只有对中等偏下收入经济体的作用显著。为实现区域经济一体化的最终目标,我国应有针对性地参与国际市场竞争,提升资源在国际和国内市场的配置能力,为经济的高质量发展提供强劲支撑。     

Do state trading exporters distort trade?

In this paper, we analyse the trade-distorting effects of state trading enterprises (STEs) which exist in some exporting countries. Because of these potential effects, several countries have raised the issue of state enterprises in the Doha Round negotiations in the WTO. The belief is that STEs in certain developed countries have trade effects which are equivalent to an export subsidy. STEs also exist in developing countries, though since the aim of government policy may differ from the developed country case, the trade distortion may be equivalent to an export tax. We present a theoretical model that is sufficiently general to allow us to consider the case of exporting STEs in developed and developing economies. The model is calibrated with data on two examples of STEs, one typical of an STE in a developed country, the other typical of an STE in a developing economy. In each case, we allow for differences in the nature of the STE's pay-off function. The overall conclusion is that STEs do distort trade and the trade distortion effect is potentially significant.     

实际汇率与中国双边贸易

本文将中国与中国贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率引入一个诱导的出口方程中,并加入中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率。结果表明,亚洲的一些主要国家和地区是中国出口的竞争者,1997年发生的亚洲金融危机确实使中国1998年和1999年的出口减少。除了海外市场需求和国内供给能力外,中国与贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率,以及中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率对中国的双边贸易也有显著影响。     

中国对美日欧服务贸易总量及结构出口潜力测算——基于变截距面板数据的引力模型分析

基于应用广泛的变截距面板数据模型,实证了中国对29个经济体服务贸易出口的影响因素和总量潜力及结构潜力,结果显示:空间距离对我国服务贸易的出口影响不显著,国际金融危机之后的服务贸易出口总额急剧下降是对出口不足的持续,总量上出口贸易的潜力增加,结构潜力较为复杂;运输、旅游等传统服务出口抗击全球金融危机的能力较小,而保险等新兴的服务出口规避风险能力较强。因此,在挖掘出口潜力和防止出口持续过度时,有关部门和企业应针对不同行业、不同目的国的特点,采取不同的发展措施。     

What drives cross-country differences in export variety? A bilateral panel approach

A worldwide event like the 2020 Coronavirus outbreak can only reinforce the interest in modelling trade diversification as a key factor in countries’ vulnerability to external shocks. This paper adopts a detailed relative framework to study the determinants of product-level export variety in a large bilateral panel of developing and developed economies (16,770 country pairs in the period 1988–2014). We find that country pairs characterized by large differentials in productivity and in the makeup of the labour force differ in export variety patterns. This result holds after controlling for other endowments and for trade costs. Further, productivity plays a significant role in the reduction of export variety dissimilarities between countries belonging to different income groups. Hence, without successful technological convergence the low-income economies will not be able to reduce their exposure to export risk.     

The long term impact of economic development in developed countries on developing countries since 1820

The linkages between the economic development of developed and developing countries are analyzed historically. The analysis is divided into epochs, distinguished by global trade regimes and by common characteristics of long term economic growth. The break throughs in long distance transport technology which occured during the industrial revolution created a global economy in which the rythm of economic activity in developing economies became linked to that of developed economies. The major transmission mechanisms were international trade, international migration and international capital flows. Exports were the main engine of growth in developing countries. But the effects of export expansion varied across countries. The speed of transmission of the industrial revolution to developing countries depended on their institutional readiness; countries with most developed capitalist institutions in factor markets were the first to develop. The extent of diffusion of the benefits of growth from export expansion within developing countries also depended on the nature of their institutions, both economic and political. Finally, policies with respect to international trade, investment and agriculture were also critical to the speed and diffusion of economic development.The research underlying this paper is the result of a twentyfive year collaboration with Professor Cynthia Taft Morris. She is indebted to the World Bank for financing the research in this paper as part of the background studies for the World Development Report 1991. She is also indebted to Sherman Robinson for his comments.     

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory or the Modern Trade Theory: How the Overall Trade Characterizes at the Global Level?

This paper has two objectives: to locate the global trade pattern and to compute the export potential of world economies. Considering the maximum number of countries and maintaining a good representative sample of the overall international trade, an empirical examination is conducted by utilizing the trade complementary index and the per-capita income variable in the standard gravity model. The main aim is to determine which of the two theoretical frameworks―either the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, which is based on factor endowments or the Modern Trade theory of Krugman-Helpman and Linder, based on the intra-industry trade―is explaining the overall global trade flows. The estimated results support the factor endowments trade theory. In other words, the observed trade patterns conform to the Heckscher-Ohlin theory of trade over intra-industry Modern trade theories. The inference drawn is based on the significantly positive coefficient of the trade complementarity index and the absolute differenced PCI variable. Furthermore, as far as export potential is concerned, there exists a vast scope for the export potential across economies. These countries can exploit the existing export potential through trade cooperation and integration at the regional and the bilateral level.

     

Explaining Export Performance through Inputs: Evidence from Aggregated Cross‐country Firm‐level Data

Which trade barrier related to intermediate inputs forms a greater burden on the export performance of firms in developing countries? Using aggregated cross‐country firm‐level data covering 43 mostly developing economies, this paper estimates the marginal importance of the impact of various intermediate input trade cost barriers, namely tariffs, non‐tariff barriers (NTBs) and services barriers, on firms' export behavior. In a cross‐sectoral setting, this paper takes the firm's export performance in goods as a central focus to study the effects of these different trade barriers through the exporting firm's choice of use of intermediate inputs. The results show that the most significant trade barriers on inputs that impede export performance in developing countries are mainly NTBs and restrictions of services.     

中国家具出口贸易的实证研究

家具是中国的一项重要出口产品,但频繁遭遇贸易保护,有必要对中国家具出口进行较深入的研究。为此,本文选择了出口贸易额、出口地理方向、可显示比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和产业内贸易指数五个指标对中国家具出口情况进行分析。发现近年来中国家具出口增长迅速,但存在出口市场过于集中的问题。中国在家具生产上具有明显的比较优势,中国家具有较强的国际竞争力,家具贸易以产业间贸易为主。中国家具出口企业应该进一步降低对美国出口的比重,积极应对贸易壁垒,并发展一般贸易以替代加工贸易。     

Financial factors and the margins of trade: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data

Using a large cross-country, firm-level database containing 5000 firms in 9 developing and emerging economies, we study how financial factors affect both firms' export decisions and the amount exported by firms. First, our results highlight the importance of the impact of firms' access to finance on their entry decision into the export market. However, better financial health neither increases the probability of remaining an exporter once the firm has entered, nor the size of exports. Second, we find that financial constraints create a disconnection between firms' productivity and their export status: productivity is only a significant determinant of the export decision if the firm has a sufficient access to external finance. Finally, an increase in a country's financial development dampens this disconnection, thus acting both on the number of exporters and on the exporters' selection process. These results contribute to the literature documenting the role of fixed costs and of the extensive margin of trade in total trade adjustment, and provide micro-level evidence of the positive impact of financial development on trade found by previous literature.