对回购合同主要风险因素的分析

伊朗具有丰富的油气资源．回购合同是伊朗开展油气领域对外合作的主要模式。本文通过建立一个虚拟的回购项目，运用折现现金流法，定量分析了油价风险、延期风险和部分投资不能回收风险对承包商收益率的影响。结果证明超过投资上限的投入不能回收对收益率的影响最大，其次是项目延期，而影响最小的是回收期油价的变动：     

金融发展对中国中小板上市公司融资约束的影响

从投资-现金流的敏感性角度出发,利用我国中小企业板上市公司在 2004-2014年的数据为研究样本,通过建模实证研究金融发展对中国中小板上市公司融资约束瓶颈的影响程度.结果表明,中国中小上市公司的投资与其内部现金流有着显著的正向关系;金融发展能够缓解中小上市公司的融资约束现象,且金融发展程度越高,对中小板上市公司的融资瓶颈约束缓释效果越强,即减缓了企业的投资-现金流敏感性.     

不确定性、融资约束与企业投资行为研究

本文利用我国证券市场制造业的最新数据,分析了我国上市企业投资行为与不确定性和融资约束的关系,结果显示：内部现金流和不确定性对企业的投资有明显的影响,且两种因素对投资的影响具有加强的作用;随着企业的国有股份比例提高和净资产回报水平增加,投资-现金流敏感性递增;国有股比例越高,企业规模越大,投资对不确定性敏感性越大。     

基于现金流的企业价值评估初探

企业的价值等于其未来产生的自由现金流量折现值的总和。通过估价的过程,促使企业挖掘潜在的价值驱动因素,明确投资决策、融资决策等各种财务决策如何影响企业价值,实现改进和完善企业价值评估模型。本文笔者修正现金流折现模型对自由现金流量的定义,分步骤分析和确定价值评估模型的各要素,得出企业价值评估结果。     

基于随机建模的个人养老金账户内涵收益率研究

人口老龄化对现收现付制养老金系统的可持续性造成巨大冲击，大力发展第三支柱个人养老金是完善养老保险制度的重要途径。如何提高个人养老金参与率以缓解基本养老保险压力是重要的研究课题。本文根据个人养老金管理实践，采用连续时间随机模型，对个人养老金账户的投资积累过程进行建模，并加入主观折现因子刻画参与人对流动性限制和风险承担要求的补偿。令个人养老金账户期望积累值与个人投资积累值相等，建立了参与个人养老金计划的决策指标内涵收益率。研究结果表明：不同收入人群的内涵收益率存在较大差异；提高个人养老金账户的投资收益率以及降低主观折现因子可以提高内涵收益率；可以通过设置差异税率、提高投资收益率、以及提供流动性机会等机制设计吸引不同人群参与个人养老金计划。此外，存在保底收益率的产品在兜底的同时保留了获得上行收益的可能性，对收益分布存在非对称影响。此类产品增强了养老金的积累效果，有助于实现个人养老金的扩面。     

管理层能力与资本投资效率研究——基于投资现金流敏感性的视角

一直以来,高层管理人员作为公司重要的人力资源备受关注,然而高层管理人员的管理能力对公司的资本投资效率有无影响和有什么样的影响一直缺乏实证研究。笔者以2003—2013年在沪深两市A股主板上市的制造业公司为研究样本,基于投资现金流敏感性的视角研究了高层管理者的能力与资本投资效率之间的关系。研究得出以下结论:样本公司中资本投资均对其内部现金流高度敏感,而管理能力高的高层管理者能有效减缓资本投资与内部现金流之间的敏感性。分组后进一步的研究表明:管理能力高的高层管理者不仅能有效降低融资约束导致的资本投资现金流敏感性,而且还能有效缓解代理冲突形成的资本投资现金流敏感性问题。本研究从一个新的视角证明:随着公司高层管理者能力的提高,管理者会越来越注重缓解信息的不对称性,通过缓和融资约束和代理冲突问题,可有效改善公司的资本投资效率。     

收益法在无形资产评估中应用问题探讨

一、收益法的基本原理 收益法通过估算被评估无形资产未来预期收益,并采用适当的折现率折算成现值,将折现值之和作为被评估无形资产的价值。如果用CIt表示t时间得到的预期收益,i表示投资者要求的收益率,n表示预期收益的发生次数。那么,估算无形资产价值的收益法用公式表示为：     

房地产项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

公司各单位在编制房地产投资项目可行性研究报告的过程中,对全部投资内部收益率与资本金内部收益率两个指标的理解存在一定的偏差,为能更好的说明这两个指标,本文从财务内部收益率的内涵、全部投资内部收益率与资本金内部收益率的计算基础、数量关系等方面进行了阐述,希望对工作有更好的指导意义。     

房地产项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

公司各单位在编制房地产投资项目可行性研究报告的过程中,对全部投资内部收益率与资本金内部收益率两个指标的理解存在一定的偏差,为能更好的说明这两个指标,本文从财务内部收益率的内涵、全部投资内部收益率与资本金内部收益率的计算基础、数量关系等方面进行了阐述,希望对工作有更好的指导意义。     

股权估值方法探讨和实证分析

价值投资的前提、基础和核心是估值。在各种估值方法中,公司自由现金流（FCFF）折现法更适合私募股权投资行业在当前国内资本市场环境下的股权估值。通过对＂桂林三金＂的实证分析,证明FCFF估值模型是有效的。     

The optimal trade-off between interest rate risk and annual return of bond ladders

Bond laddering is a popular fixed-income investment strategy. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for determining private investors’ most interest rate risk (IRR)-return-efficient investment horizon for bond ladders (BLs), which are virtually free of credit risk. Two IRR measures of a continuously rolling and homogenous BL (CRHBL) are analytically derived under the assumption that interest rates are martingales. The first measure is the modified duration, which assumes a flat term structure of interest rates. However, this assumption is not fully supported by the empirical data and, thus, an additional IRR measure is proposed. Under each of these two measures, the ratios between the annual return in excess of the demand deposit rate and IRR of CRHBLs with different investment horizons are calculated. As expected, CRHBLs with rather low IRR are most risk-return-efficient. The results for the theoretical CRHBLs also apply to “real-world” discrete BLs. Thus, the proposed methodology can help private investors construct IRR-return-efficient discrete BLs.     

SOME ANALYTICS OF WHY CONDITIONAL IRRs CAN CONTAIN GROWTH RATE RELATED MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper investigates the consequences of incorrectly modelling the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship on estimates of the internal rate of return (IRR) prepared by using cash recovery rates (CRRs). The main result of this paper is that CRR-based estimates of the IRR will contain such bias if and only if either the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship is less than the duration of the true investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest or the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship is greater than the duration of the true investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest. This result is then applied to the case where both the true and the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationships have benefit inflows that change exponentially over time. It is shown that if the exponential rate of change is mis-specified the resulting CRR-based estimate of the IRR will contain systematic bias monotonically related to the rate of growth.     

Accounting Rate of Return vs. Economic Rate of Return

The accounting rate of return (ARR) has traditionally been used as a surrogate for the economic rate of return (IRR) in evaluating the effectiveness of managements' capital investment decisions. Over the years, some question has been raised as to the validity of using the ARR as an approximation of the IRR. Several papers have recently come to grips with this question with varying degrees of success. This paper is intended to expose the conceptual differences between these rates of return, with the goal of clearly pointing out just how useful the ARR can be to management.     

What is an Investment Project's Implied Rate of Return?

How to measure a project's implied rate of return has long been an unresolved problem, except for some special cases. This paper derives return on present cost (ROPC) as the correct measure of an investment project's implied rate of return. The IRR is a biased measure except for projects classified as simple projects, and this bias is likely to be substantial in many real‐world applications. Thus while net present values should be used to determine whether to accept/reject projects, I recommend that analysts use ROPC in place of the IRR as a measure of a project's true rate of return.     

净现值与内部收益率在投资决策中的选用

净现值和内部收益率是投资决策中最常用的两个主要指标,但是,通过深入分析我们发现,后者在满足净效益最大化决策目标、假设条件的经济合理性以及普遍适用性三个方面均存在严重缺陷,因而不是一个可靠的项目价值衡量指标,最多只能用作决策的参考,不能用作项目取舍的依据。     

Utilizing terminal values in teaching time value analysis

Traditional time value models, Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), are now widely accepted in industry. This paper isolates three examples of how these simplified models can lead to less than optimal decision strategies. The conceptual basis for the discounting and reinvestment functions in time value analysis is first explored. Three investment areas highlighting misconceptions concerning the role of these rates are then analyzed. These areas include the utilization of risk adjusted discount rates, determination of bond yields and the analysis of leveraged leases. Finally, the impact of terminal values on the investment decision in each of these cases is demonstrated.     

万能寿险内在收益率测算与影响因素分析

保单实际收益率的衡量指标,指出结算利率不能如实反映保单收益率。通过构造定期寿险和投资组合的方式,提出以万能寿险保单资金账户内在收益率IRR来反映实际收益率较为合适,文章以目前中国市场上正在销售的B款万能终身寿险产品为样本对保单IRR进行了测算,结果表明保单IRR低于结算利率,用结算利率来反映保单收益会对投保人产生误导,文章还进一步对万能寿险保单IRR的影响因素做了分析,结果表明保单持有时间长度、费用的比例和结构等因素显著影响保单收益。最后,文章根据测算和分析的结果给出了相应的建议。     

中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性估计

企业投资对资本成本的敏感性是识别货币政策利率传导渠道是否畅通以及IS曲线斜率的重要参数。本文基于新古典投资模型框架,使用2004-2017年中国上市公司非平衡面板数据,估计了中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性,并侧重检验了融资约束对企业投资资本成本敏感性的影响。估计结果显示:(1)上市企业投资的加权资本成本弹性显著为负,且已具有较强敏感性(长期弹性系数为-0.16～-0.27),价格型货币政策工具的传导条件在上市公司投资环节正逐渐具备 ;(2)对加权资本成本的结构性估计显示,企业投资主要对债务资本成本的变动较为敏感且系数显著为负,而对股权资本成本的变动敏感程度较低且不稳定;(3)与传统观点相反的是,非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性显著低于国有控股上市企业;较强的融资约束是导致非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性较低的重要原因,应重视民营经济面临较强的融资约束对价格型货币政策工具传导机制的负面影响。本文的研究为中国货币政策框架的转型以及价格型货币政策传导机制的有效性提供了微观经验证据的支持。     

Estimation of Internal Rate of Return Under Nonsteady Conditions

This study presents a method to estimate the IRR (internal rate of return) from published financial statement data under nonsteady conditions. The IRR is allowed to systematically change over time. The method provides an estimate for the current profitability of periodic total expenditure, its rate of change, and the firm-level profitability. Four competing steady and nonsteady statistical models are evaluated by simulation showing that a restricted nonsteady model may give the most reliable estimates. The model is applied to Finnish firms to illustrate how to use the model in practice. Three samples of publicly traded and nontraded firms are considered.     

Conservatism, growth, and return on investment

Return on Investment (ROI) is widely regarded as a key measure of firm profitability. The accounting literature has long recognized that ROI will generally not reflect economic profitability, as determined by the internal rate of return (IRR) of a firm’s investment projects. In particular, it has been noted that accounting conservatism may result in an upward bias of ROI, relative to the underlying IRR. We examine both theoretically and empirically the behavior of ROI as a function of two variables: past growth in new investments and accounting conservatism. Higher growth is shown to result in lower levels of ROI provided the accounting is conservative, while the opposite is generally true for liberal accounting policies. Conversely, more conservative accounting will increase ROI provided growth in new investments has been “moderate” over the relevant horizon, while the opposite is true if new investments grew at sufficiently high rates. Taken together, we find that conservatism and growth are “substitutes” in their joint impact on ROI.