Scholastic Effort: An Empirical Test of Student Choice Models

A measure of student effort based on time and the efficiency of its use was found to be significant in several learning models. The report discusses variations of a generalized learning model, different definitions of student input, and the use of pre-TUCE scores as a variable. The authors ask whether the pre-TUCE is more appropriate as a measure of economic knowledge or as a proxy for student aptitude. The findings and methodology should be of considerable interest to others doing research on student effort.     

Productivity Dynamics with Technology Choice: An Application to Automobile Assembly

During the 1980's, all Japanese automobile producers opened assembly plants in North America. Industry analysts and previous research claim that these transplants are more productive than incumbent plants and that they produce with a substantially different production process. I compare the production processes by estimating a model that allows for heterogeneity in technology and productivity, both of which are intrinsically unobservable. The model is estimated on a panel of assembly plants, controlling for capacity utilization and price effects.
The results indicate that the more recent technology uses capital more intensively and it has a higher elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Hicks-neutral productivity growth is estimated to be lower, while capital-biased (labour-saving) productivity growth is higher for the new technology. Using the estimation results, I decompose industry-wide productivity growth and find plant-level changes in lean plants to be the most important contributor. Plant-level productivity growth is further decomposed to reveal the importance of capital-biased productivity growth, increases in the capital–labour ratio, and returns to scale.     

2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice*

This article uses factor models to identify and estimate the distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. We go beyond the “Veil of Ignorance” in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.     

Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach

This paper shows how particle filtering facilitates likelihood-based inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The economies can be non-linear and/or non-normal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those characterizing preferences and technology, and to compare different economies. Both tasks can be implemented from either a classical or a Bayesian perspective. We illustrate the technique by estimating a business cycle model with investment-specific technological change, preference shocks, and stochastic volatility.     

Catch More to Catch Less: Estimating Timing Choice as Dynamic Bycatch Avoidance Behavior

Environmental and Resource Economics - We model harvesters’ temporal participation behavior in a fishery with individual quotas for both a target and bycatch species. Harvesters make...     

Optimal Growth Models with Bounded or Unbounded Returns: A Unifying Approach

In this paper we propose a unifying approach to the study of optimal growth models with bounded or unbounded returns (above-below). Following our approach, we prove the existence of optimal solutions and show, without using the contraction method, that the value function is the unique solution to the Bellman equation for a particular class of functions. The value function can be obtained by the usual algorithm defined by the operator provided by the Bellman equation. Moreover, following our approach we obtain the recent results of F. Alvarez and N. Stokey (1998, J. Econ. Theory82, 167-189) as well as the well-known results. Journal of Economic Literature Classification numbers: C61, 041.     

Computerization in France: An Evaluation Based on Individual Company Data

In this article we evaluate the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to the growth of value added during the past 15 years in France. Following North American studies, we use traditional growth accounting methods to assess the relative size of two types of contribution: on the one hand the effect of the use of information technologies (IT) on growth due to the accumulation of IT capital taking place within all industries; on the other hand the contribution of the production of ICT to growth due to the strong total factor productivity (TFP) gains achieved in the industries producing ICT. We use individual company data aggregated by industry, which provide us with a measure of the firm's computer stock and makes a detailed investigation possible.     

Australian Bond Excess Returns: An Asset Allocation Perspective

We examine the out‐of‐sample predictability of excess returns in the Australian government bond market. Our results confirm previous findings that a linear combination of forward rates provides a statistically significant prediction of bond excess returns on 1‐ to 5‐year maturity bonds. However, from an asset allocation perspective, our predictive model fails to obtain positive economic utility against the no‐predictability benchmark. Our results are robust to the sample period and different parameter assumptions.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Estimation of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models for Stock-Exchange Index Returns

The objective of this paper is to put forward a new autoregressive asymmetric stochastic volatility model for modeling volatility and to compare results obtained for this model with an autoregressive stochastic model and another asymmetric volatility model, such as, asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results obtained from the estimation by maximum likelihood have shown the volatility behavior is asymmetric in the majority of cases. This fact is better shown by the ARSVA model, than the rest of alternative models. Moreover, the ARSVA model is able to reproduce other stylized facts of such series, such as high kurtosis, no autocorrelation of returns, slow decreasing of the autocorrelation function of the squared returns and high persistence.

Estimating exact hedonic indexes: An application to UK television sets

Much attention has been given to the estimation of hedonic regressions given their potential use as a means to adjust consumer and producer price indices for quality changes. However, there has been warranted criticism over the methods used, particularly relating to the econometric specification of the models. Much of the criticism has arisen from the inability of available data to match the requirements of a fully specified model. Using EPOS scanner data for UK television sets we provide reliable hedonic estimates which incorporate several developments. Such data are available for a wide range of product areas and this application illustrates how they might be used. We develop methodology to help surmount problems arising from omitted variables, the coexistence of new and old models, weighting of observations and quality changes common to all models. More specifically we pay particular attention to the neglected area of product markets where pricing is above marginal cost.     

Methodological Extensions of First-Order Adjustment Models: An Application to U.S. Industries *

This paper empirically tests two industrial-organization models with a sample of 182 U.S. industries, from to 1963 to 1967. The models extend standard models and integrate them with dynamics associated with the " persistence of profits" methodologies. We extend it by replacing the traditional cross-section profit equation with a profit-adjustment equation for U.S. industrial data. Our study measures the speed of adjustment of profits and explicitly models steady-state profits, in addition to the speed of structural adjustment and steady-state market structure. We find that the structural-adjustment speed is slower than the profit-adjustment speed and that nonzero economic profits tend to be quite persistent     

Hurdle and Latent Class Approaches to Serial Non-Participation in Choice Models

In repeated choice modelling studies, it is often the case that individuals always select the status quo option. Although this pattern may reflect considered choices, they may also be the result of alternative decisions about whether to participate in the choice process at all. Alternative methods of dealing with this behaviour, each with associated implications for estimates of economic values, are presented. In particular we consider the alternative strategies of excluding such individuals from the data, using hurdle models to explicitly model this group, and propose the use of latent class models to endogenously allow for different preference structures. An advantage of the latent class approach is that the form of the non-participation need not be defined in advance. These approaches are considered using UK choice experiment data on food choices where the attributes include genetic modification of food. The latent class approach reveals the presence of two forms of non-participation in the data. This paper draws work commissioned by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The views presented in this paper are those of the authors alone and should not be regarded as those of DEFRA or of individuals within DEFRA.     

Aids: An Economic Approach to the Choice of Policies*

This paper presents a novel approach to the difficult problem of society choosing the optimal set of policy instruments to control the spread of AIDS. The economic approach emphasizes the determinants of agents' behaviour and the reciprocal nature of the market failure problem. The nature of the social objective function is discussed and an expected-utility-maximizing model of the behaviour of HIV-infectious agents is developed In the light of the agents' responses to government policies, some general principles relating to the ranking of instruments and their targeting of individual groups and of instrument variables are developed     

External Tests of Scope and Embedding in Stated Preference Choice Experiments: An Application to Endangered Species Valuation

A criticism often levied against stated preference (SP) valuation results is that they sometimes do not display sensitivity to differences in the magnitude or scope of the good being valued. In this study, we test the sensitivity of preferences for several proposed expanded protection programs that would protect up to three US Endangered Species Act-listed species: the Puget Sound Chinook salmon, the smalltooth sawfish, and the Hawaiian monk seal. An external scope test is employed via a split-sample SP choice experiment survey to evaluate whether there is a significant difference in willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting more species and/or achieving greater improvements in the status of the species. The majority of 46 scope tests indicate sensitivity to scope, and the pattern of scope test failures is consistent with diminishing marginal utility with respect to the amount of protection to each species. Further tests suggest WTP may be proportional to the number of species valued.     

Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models

This study reviews estimation methods for the infinite horizon discrete choice dynamic programming models and conducts Monte Carlo experiments. We consider: the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the two‐step conditional choice probabilities estimator, sequential estimators based on policy iterations mapping under finite dependence, and sequential estimators based on value iteration mappings. Our simulation result shows that the estimation performance of the sequential estimators based on policy iterations and value iteration mappings is largely comparable to the MLE, while they achieve substantial computation gains over the MLE by a factor of 100 for a model with a moderately large state space.     

Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models with Moments Based Methods

This article suggests a new approach to approximating moments for nonlinear DSGE models. This approach is fast and sufficiently accurate to estimate nonlinear DSGE models. A small financial DSGE model is repeatedly estimated by several modifications of the suggested approach. Approximations of the moments are close to the results of the large sample Monte Carlo estimation. The quality of parameter estimation using our suggested approach is close to the Central Difference Kalman Filter (CDKF); and our suggested approach is much faster.     

市场结构范式的比较与选择

传统经济学中过多强调了竞争的优势和垄断的不足,但这些论断已明显偏离了新经济时代现实经济系统的客观实际。寡头垄断具有极强的适应性和有效性,文章主要对寡头垄断的有效性进行了分析,阐述了市场结构由垄断竞争范式向寡头垄断范式转变的客观必然性,并就寡头垄断范式的经济学障碍消除等问题进行了分析。     

我国最优混合养老保险体制的选择:收益和风险分析

养老金研究的核心问题之一在于选择合适的养老金计划运行方式。文章基于中国实际,通过引入随机性的"权衡理论"模型分析发现,在代表性参保人效用最大化前提下,运行方式选择类似于金融资产组合问题。所谓的艾隆条件只是在确定性模型下的特定结果。在加入风险因素后,即便在艾隆条件下,引入一定的积累制也将改善养老金体系的运行状况。两种制度最优的混合比例将受到人口增长率、工资增长率、个人风险规避倾向和金融市场因素的共同影响。分析结果表明提高养老金计划运行收益率和养老基金分散化投资有利于增进参保人效用。