Local country attributes and the emergence of high tech clusters

The aim of this study is to explore the effect of a country’s attributes on the decision of firms to be active globally. We first built a theoretical model, which shows that an initial difference in the business environment may dampen the desire of firms located in countries with a relatively weak business environment to seek a higher level of R&D. The decision not to pursue higher levels of R&D leads, in turn, to lower output and lower scope of activity of global firms in these countries. Moreover, firms with relatively high level of management skills will choose to migrate from a relatively weak country to one with a stronger business environment, creating a brain drain that will further impoverish the weak country.     

Optimal Exit Costs of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the optimal policy on exit costs of foreign direct investment for a host country considering the impact of varying income level and host country’s risk aversion against volatile FDI flows. Based on a dynamic model about the impact of the exit costs on FDI inflows and capital formation, we demonstrate that a host country should determine the exit cost considering two counterbalancing factors, that is, facilitating higher FDI inflows and reducing volatility of FDI inflows. When a host country is less vulnerable to volatility with inelastic risk aversion against FDI volatility, it is optimal for the host country with a negative income shock to take a more aggressive approach to induce FDI inflows by lowering exit costs. However, if the host country is more vulnerable to volatility with elastic risk aversion, the host country is advised to take a conservative approach by increasing exit costs to reduce FDI volatility. These findings, supported by the OECD data on 42 countries’ exits costs, implicate that developing countries are recommended to lower exit costs to induce higher FDI inflows when they are not highly vulnerable to volatility shocks.     

Business groups,foreign direct investment,and capital goods trade: The import behavior of Japanese affiliates

We examine the impact of buyer–supplier relationships within business groups on capital goods trade by taking into account potential simultaneous effects of business group ties on foreign direct investment. We posit that (1) foreign affiliates of business group firms have a greater propensity to import capital goods from the home country, increasing home country exports; (2) if the establishment of overseas affiliates by business group firms attracts foreign direct investment by their capital goods suppliers, business group ties are localized and the ‘trade creating’ impact of business group ties may disappear or even be reversed. Empirical analysis of capital goods imports by 1790 manufacturing affiliates operated abroad by Japanese multinational firms, combined with information on linkages with machinery suppliers within horizontal and vertical business groups, provides broad support for these predictions. Our findings suggest that it may be incorrect to infer from the absence of a simple relationship between business group ties and trade that such ties are unimportant; instead, intra-group ties may be replicated abroad through foreign direct investment.     

东道国不确定性与中国ODI二元边际:兼论营商环境的调节效应

关于不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响,以往研究往往忽略了对外直接投资的结构特征。文章将东道国不确定性因素纳入异质性企业模型,分析了不确定性对中国ODI二元边际的影响机制,并运用2005~2017年中国企业对外直接投资数据,实证检验了东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响。研究结果表明:首先,东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资的扩展边际具有显著的抑制作用,但是对集约边际的影响不显著;其次,不确定性对ODI扩展边际的抑制作用在金融危机后和在东道国不确定性大于中国的国家更明显;最后,引入营商环境因素研究发现,良好的营商环境对于东道国不确定性具有一定的正向调节效应。     

Foreign direct investment under fiscal interdependence when policy is set unilaterally

This paper develops a partial equilibrium model of foreign direct investment to analyze the potentially opposing interests between a host and foreign country. The two countries are fiscally interdependent and the fiscal variable is set unilaterally by the foreign country. The analysis indicates that fiscal independence is welfare-enhancing, particularly in the case where the outflow of FDI is large. The case where a lump-sum subsidy is set to address the exit of firms indicates that the need for subsidy payments subside under fiscal independence.     

Pollution control and foreign firms’ exit behavior in China

China faces a common dilemma of how to maintain rapid economic growth while also reducing the pollution that has accompanied growth. Will stricter pollution controls drive away the foreign firms that have helped spur growth in China? This paper studies the effects of the Two-Control-Zone (TCZ) pollution control policy on foreign firms’ exit behavior in China. Based on firm-level data from 1998 to 2009, we find that foreign firms’ responses are not significantly different from domestic firms on average once environmental regulations impose an added cost of business. However, foreign firms’ responses to stricter pollution controls tend to differ based on various firm characteristics. Our estimation indicates that larger size, higher productivity and exporting all make foreign firms less likely to exit than similar domestic firms in regions with stricter pollution control.     

对外直接投资、母国营商环境与母国技术进步——基于门槛模型的检验

近年来,日趋复杂的国际环境影响企业的投资信心与决策。在学界,对外直接投资(OFDI)与技术进步的关联逐渐成为热点话题,随着各国不断优化营商环境,母国营商环境对二者的关联产生什么样的影响呢？鉴于鲜有文献探讨这一具有重要意义的话题,文章尝试将营商环境纳入基于企业利润最大化的理论模型,从母国营商环境视角阐释OFDI与母国技术进步的非线性关系;在此基础上,以2004—2020年115个经济体的面板数据为样本,运用Hansen门槛模型进行实证检验。研究表明:第一,在母国营商环境的影响下,OFDI与母国技术进步存在"V型"关系,即随着营商环境的改善,OFDI对技术进步具有"先抑制后促进"的影响。第二,OFDI对母国技术进步的非线性影响具有国家异质性。当营商环境超过一定临界值后,发达国家与新兴国家OFDI对技术进步均具有显著的正向影响,但发达国家的营商环境临界值更大,新兴国家的正向影响效应更强。第三,在解决内生性问题、替换指标和估计方法之后,实证结果依然稳健。最后进一步指出,在新发展格局下,我国在进行深层次改革、优化营商环境的同时,必须坚持扩大开放、提高对外直接投资质量,增强OFDI对我国技术进步的促进作用。     

Unfinished business: Zombie firms among SME in Japan’s lost decades

The “soft budget problem,” by which banks loosen their lending stances toward long-term client firms despite worsening business conditions, has been widely discussed in the field of financial studies. In Japan, this problem has attracted attention particularly in connection to so-called “zombie firms,” financially weak firms sustained by discounted interest rates and evergreen lending which have become a major research and political interest in recent years. In this article, we focus on zombie firms among small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), a corporate category that has hitherto received less consideration in the discussion about Japan’s zombie firms. We find that: (1) many zombie firms exist among SME and that the zombie firm ratio increases as firm size decreases; and (2) some zombie firms eventually emerge from zombie status among SME. In other words, zombie firms are likely problematic from the view of the efficiency of the industries to which they belong. But when one considers that many zombie firms achieve revival, it would seem inappropriate to uniformly promote their elimination. Since ending zombie status seems to directly imply market exit for many SME, it is important to conduct preliminary screening to prevent the creation of zombie firms in the first place.     

The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is empirically shown that this relation depends on the financial risk of a country as perceived by investors. In order to proxy financial risk, a financial risk rating employed by multinational firms, banks, and equity and currency traders is used. This rating relies on debt to GDP ratios amongst other indicators. In countries with low financial risk, financial openness decreases output volatility while financial openness increases output volatility in countries with high financial risk. Extensive robustness checks confirm this result.     

The reverse home-market effect in exports: a cross-country study of the extensive margin of exports

Do small countries have higher proportions of firms that export in manufacturing industries than large ones? As small countries are well known to be more open than large ones, it may appear uncontroversial to claim that the answer is yes. Nevertheless, this contradicts predictions from many standard trade models positing a home-market effect in the number of manufacturing firms and exporters. In this article, I present a theoretical model where a home-market effect in the number of firms coexists with a reverse home-market effect in the number of exporters: as in standard models, the number of firms in a small country relative to that in a large one is lower than relative income, but, in contrast to standard models, the relative number of exporters is larger. As a consequence, small countries will have higher proportions firms that export in manufacturing industries—a claim I support empirically.     

Stimulating Growth and Investment in Africa: From Macro to Micro Reforms

Abstract: How do we stimulate investment and growth in Africa? This paper focuses on low‐income countries that are ‘good performers’ and not especially endowed with natural resources. Many of these countries have undertaken a set of economic reforms, and have recorded growth rates in per capita GDP of around 5 percent over the past 10 years. But some constraints to growth persist. We look at three things — how business environments create ‘external costs’ for firms and inhibit performance, how investors perceive the constraints to doing business, and the role of political economy factors especially in those countries with lagging indigenous business sectors. Our analysis of investment climate and other data leads us to several recommendations for governments, donors and the private sector itself, including the following: deepen macro reforms; build a strong, unified business forum; create incentives for more responsive governments; and improve risk mitigation and broaden this to domestic investors.     

The Effect of Business Risk on Capital Structure of Indian Corporate Firms: Business Groups vs. Stand-alone Firms

Abstract

This study estimates the relationship between leverage and business risk for Indian corporate firms by applying semi-parametric regression method for three time points, namely 2001, 2007 and 2012. We observe that the relationship is non-linear for all the three measures of RISK in 2001 and 2012. Since we get different results for different measures of risk, we lay more emphasis on RISK2 as the better measure of risk here. From the graphical plots, we find that the relationship between leverage and RISK2 appears to be a polynomial of degree 5 or more. Thus, it invalidates the previous argument of a quadratic relationship between leverage and risk. We then check if the quadratic specification between leverage and risk, as proposed in the existing studies, is appropriate by applying Hardle and Mammen's test. We observe that the relationship varies over the measures of risks and it differs between group-affiliated firms and stand-alone firms. Moreover, the relationship changes over time. Thus, our findings raise questions about the predictions of Castanias, Kale et al. and others on the relationship between capital structure and business risk as a U-shaped one. We conclude that the generalization of a U-shaped relationship between capital structure and business risk is not true.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization

This paper studies how liability dollarization conditions the effect of exchange rate flexibility on growth. It develops a model with credit-constrained firms facing liquidity shocks denominated in tradables while their revenues are both in tradable and nontradables. With frictions in the reallocation between tradables and nontradables, a peg is more growth-enhancing than a float in countries with dollarized debt because it stabilizes firms?? cash flows and therefore allows them to face liquidity shock and complete their innovation process. However, this relative advantage diminishes when dollarization decreases. These theoretical predictions are confirmed by an empirical analysis on a panel of 76 countries spanning 1995?C2004: the higher the degree of dollarization, the more negative the impact of exchange rate flexibility on growth. The empirical results are robust to various specifications and to the treatment of endogeneity.     

Creditors’ and Shareholders’ Reporting Demands in Public Versus Private Firms: Evidence from Europe*

In this study we investigate whether the importance of accounting information in contracting and communication with shareholders and creditors affects earnings timeliness in publicly disclosed general‐purpose financial statements. To operationalize the relationship between timeliness demands and the importance of accounting information to shareholders and creditors, we compare the (asymmetry in) earnings timeliness of public firms with that of private firms. We attribute public versus private firm differences in timeliness to shareholders’ demands when a country’s institutions provide strong investor protection. Similarly, we attribute these differences to creditors’ demands when the institutions provide strong creditor protection. Our analysis of public and private firms in 13 Western European countries suggests that creditors and shareholders have different timeliness demands. In particular, we find that the public versus private firm difference in asymmetric timeliness is not associated with a country’s degree of investor protection but positively associated with a country’s degree of creditor protection. The results further suggest that shareholders demand symmetric rather than asymmetric timeliness. An important implication of our study is that general‐purpose financial statements are responsive to creditors’ reporting demands, which contrasts with the idea that these — primarily private — creditors would use special‐purpose reports.     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

发展中国家知识产权保护的经济效应研究──以外商直接投资为技术溢出途径

本文通过构建一个“成本节约型”创新模型,研究了以外商直接投资为技术溢出途径时,发展中国家知识产权保护所产生的经济效应。通过模型分析,着重讨论了当发展中国家加强知识产权保护时,在何种情况下有利于吸引更多的外商直接投资;在何种市场结构下有利于激励创新;在何种条件下,会使发展中国家企业通过模仿获得的技术水平提高。     

Domestic interest rate,foreign direct investment,and corruption

It has been argued that foreign direct investment can exert upward or downward pressure on the domestic interest rate depending on foreign investors’ relative weights on internal and external finance with respect to the domestic economy. Additionally, a country’s level of corruption can influence firms’ ability to obtain external finance. We find that across countries a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows (outflows) is more likely to reduce the domestic interest rate by as much as 0.7 (1) percent. This empirical association between domestic interest rates and FDI flows is non-monotonically contingent on a country’s level of corruption.

     

International relocation,difference in production costs,and welfare: An analysis based on a two-country model

This paper examines whether or not the globalization of Japanese companies is a problem for the Japanese economy. To examine this, using the theoretical model, the paper examines whether the globalization of home-located tradable goods firms provides a benefit to the home country from the perspective of welfare. Specifically, since globalization is thought to have begun based on the difference in production costs of the home and the foreign country, we examine how an increase of productivity in the foreign non-tradable goods sector, which is the principal factor in the difference in production costs between the two countries, affects the welfare of the home country. We show that such an increase of productivity not only induces enterprise relocation, but also improves the welfare of the home country. In particular, the latter is demonstrated by an increase in the real flow of dividends that results from holding equities in tradable goods firms located abroad, i.e., the improvement in the income account. Hence, since the prediction of the model indicates that the globalization of firms is not a problem, it can be said that the globalization of Japanese firms is not a problem for the Japanese economy.     

Should I stay or should I go? Foreign direct investment,employment protection and domestic anchorage

This paper examines theoretically and empirically how employment protection legislation affects location decisions of multinationals. We depart from the “conventional wisdom” by examining not only the effect of protection on inward foreign direct investment (FDI), but also a country’s ability to “anchor” potential outward investment. Based on our simple theoretical framework, we estimate an empirical model, using data on bilateral FDI and employment protection indices for OECD countries, and controlling for other labour market institutions and investment costs. We find that, while an “unfavourable” employment protection differential between a domestic and a foreign location is inimical to FDI, a high domestic level of employment protection tends to discourage outward FDI. The results are in line with our conjecture that strict employment protection in the firm’s home country makes firms reluctant to relocate abroad and keeps them “anchored” at home.     

The demand for foreign workers by foreign firms: evidence from Africa

Foreign workers play a crucial role in channelling resources and information flows both within the boundaries of firms and between foreign firms and the host country economy. In this study we employ a novel firm-level database (UNIDO Africa Investor Survey 2010) in order to investigate the factors that determine the employment of foreign workers by foreign firms in Sub-Saharan African countries. We shed light on important firm-level as well as host–home country characteristics which shape the demand of foreign workers in developing countries. We show that differences between investors are largely explained by the role played by economic and institutional distance between home–host countries as well as by firm-level heterogeneity in the degrees of knowledge intensity and local embeddedness.