Tax effects in the dutch bond market

In this paper an analysis of the Dutch bond market is made. The technique used is linear programming. Given the fact that coupon income and capital gains are taxed differently and that some investors are tax-exempt in the Netherlands, it is shown that there are overpriced bonds in the market. This is as can be expected. But it is found that there are bonds that a rational investor would never hold in his portpolio, whatever the tax rate the investor has to pay on coupon income. Given the fact that the Dutch bond market is very illiquid for some bonds, an analysis of the effects of bid-ask spreads is made. It is shown that the effect of these spreads cannot explain the existence of bonds that are overpriced. It is not clear where these remaining overpricings stem from.     

Asset allocation with contagion and explicit bankruptcy procedures

In this paper, we consider the asset allocation problem of an investor allocating his funds between several corporate bonds and a money market account. In particular, we provide a realistic model of financial distress: firstly, we model Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 bankruptcies as different possible outcomes of financial distress. Secondly, we take into consideration that, in practice, “default” is not the end, but the beginning of financial distress, eventually leading to a reorganization or a liquidation of a distressed firm. Thirdly and most importantly, we are able to analyze the impact of contagion on an investor’s demand for corporate bonds. Contagion is an important phenomenon, as it reduces the investor’s ability to diversify his portfolio, and we show that the bond demand can change by more than 50%.     

Closed-end bond fund discounts: Agency costs,investor sentiment and portfolio content

A sample of closed-end bond funds is examined to investigate several hypotheses purporting to explain closed-end fund discounts. Consistent with Brickley, Manaster and Schallheim (1991), unrealized capital appreciation is found to be negatively related to the discount. Support also is found for the investor sentiment hypothesis of Lee, Shleifer, and Thaler (1991). Fund expense, a proxy for agency-related issues, and holdings of foreign securities, are found to be positively related to the discount. Two proxies for the investor allocation decision: the slope of the yield curve, and differential returns between stocks and bonds, are significant in the directions expected. No significant relationships are found between investments in either restricted securities or large outside blockholdings and the discount.     

自愿披露客户信息影响了债券违约风险吗？

以2010—2021年沪深A股上市公司发行的公司债为样本,实证检验了自愿披露客户信息对债券违约风险的影响。研究发现,自愿披露客户信息产生的额外风险加剧了债券违约风险,这种影响在高专有成本和高融资约束的企业中表现更为显著,但企业发行的绿色债券并未受到影响。机制检验表明,经营风险增加和机构投资者持股降低是自愿披露客户信息影响债券违约风险的重要途径。研究表明,企业需要慎重考虑披露客户信息带来的风险,审慎制定信息披露策略。     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.     

Catering to investors through capital expenditures: Testing assets substitution problem around financing

We test the catering theory, which describes how investor preferences might influence individual firms' investment financing decisions. To the best of our knowledge, our study may well be the first that directly connects catering with asset substitution to contrast the magnitude of catering by bondholders and shareholders. And indeed, it is interesting to find that although catering behavior is found to exist among both corporate bond and seasoned equity offering (SEO) managers, the coexistence of both appears to offset the abnormal investment phenomena of either underinvestment or overinvestment. The study results further reveal that firms engage in overinvestment when catering to conversion holders of existing convertible bonds. Taken together, we find that support for the asset substitution and abnormal investment argument is strong from a stockholder–bondholder conflict.     

A UK `Hands-off' Venture Capital Firm and the Handling of Post-investment Investor--Investee Relationships

Commentators on the UK venture capital industry have observed that it has reached a watershed in its development, with the players of the 1980s having to reassess their positions and possibly, in some cases, their continuing viability as independent operators. It has been suggested that increasing numbers of UK venture capitalists are moving towards a more `hands on' approach to post-investment relationships with investees in the hope of improving performance and investment out-turns. Research in the US suggests that the hoped for improvement by this route is not a foregone conclusion. In this paper we examine how a longstanding and successful UK venture capitalist makes a widely publicised `hands-off' approach work -- and how their investees see the approach working. Our research supports the view that, over time, and by a process of feedback learning from post-investment performance monitoring, investees are selected that are compatible with this particular approach. Our findings demonstrate that mutual trust is one of the most vital elements in successful `hands-off' post-investment relationship building -- and that achieving this requires careful and considered nurturing. Moreover, because `hands-on' involvement can be expensive in terms of investor management resources and against the stated investor policy, relationships of the principal--agent type were kept to a minimum as far as was possible consistent with protecting investments.     

The role of text-extracted investor sentiment in Chinese stock price prediction with the enhancement of deep learning

Whether investor sentiment affects stock prices is an issue of long-standing interest for economists. We conduct a comprehensive study of the predictability of investor sentiment, which is measured directly by extracting expectations from online user-generated content (UGC) on the stock message board of Eastmoney.com in the Chinese stock market. We consider the influential factors in prediction, including the selections of different text classification algorithms, price forecasting models, time horizons, and information update schemes. Using comparisons of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, logistic regression, support vector machine, and Naïve Bayes model, the results show that daily investor sentiment contains predictive information only for open prices, while the hourly sentiment has two hours of leading predictability for closing prices. Investors do update their expectations during trading hours. Moreover, our results reveal that advanced models, such as LSTM, can provide more predictive power with investor sentiment only if the inputs of a model contain predictive information.     

Stakeholder Relationship Bonds

Scholars and managers continue to seek a better explanation for the behaviours displayed by various stakeholders. An enhanced understanding of the drivers of these behaviours ought to improve an organization's ability to appropriately manage relationships with stakeholders, thereby improving firm performance. This paper provides a detailed look at the concept of a relationship, from the perspective of the stakeholder, by focusing on the perceived psychological bonds that drive a stakeholder to decide whether to continue a relationship with the firm and, if the relationship does continue, how much pro‐relationship behaviour to exert. Our analysis works out how the strength of the perceived psychological bond is measured and establishes the conditions under which bonds will be broken. We also develop conditions that either promote or quash stakeholders’ pro‐relationship behaviour.     

公开发行债券能提高企业创新产出吗？

以2006—2021年我国A股上市公司为样本，探讨了企业首次发行债券如何影响企业的创新水平。研究发现，企业首次公开发行债券能够显著提升企业的创新水平。机制分析结果表明,企业发行债券通过建立替代性融资渠道缓解融资约束，延长整体债务期限，提高信息披露水平这三个路径来提升企业创新水平。进一步研究发现,在控制了企业后续发债行为后，公开发行债券与企业创新的关系仍然存在；相比于公司债，企业首次发行债券种类为中期票据和企业债时，企业创新水平提升更显著；企业首次发行债券时，债券信用评级越高、发行利率越低，对于企业创新水平的提升越显著。研究结论丰富了债券市场经济后果的研究，也为企业创新发展和实现经济高质量发展提供了来自债券市场的建议。     

Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases

This article examines how and to what extent large-scale government bond purchases in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy affected two components of long-term interest rates over the period 2009–2015. The article divides market yields on popular 5 and 10-year government bonds into future policy-rate expectations with uncertainty and a specific type of term premia required by investors for the bonds’ demand/supply imbalances, by using overnight index swap rates as a proxy for the former. The Bank of Japan augmented the purchases substantially by starting Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQME) in 2013. The QQME became impactful in the sense that it encouraged investors to improve the first component whilst reducing the second component. These appeared mainly as persisting announcement-effects – upward level shifts of the expectations and downward ones of the term premia. The reduction of term premia was much greater for the 10-year maturity than for 5-year one and strengthened after an additional expansion of the QQME in 2014. The QQME is estimated to have enhanced 5-year sovereign bond yields by 11.9 basis points (bps) a month on average whilst reducing 10-year ones by 8.3 bps. The impact on the 5-year yields turned to be negative after the QQME expansion.     

Investor sentiment and Bitcoin relationship: A quantile-based analysis

This paper applies a quantile-based analysis to investigate the causal relationships between Bitcoin and investor sentiment by considering the possible effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Such an analysis allows investigating the predictive power of investor sentiment (Bitcoin) on Bitcoin (investor sentiment) at different levels of the distributions. Results emphasize that only Bitcoin returns/volatility have significant predictive power on the investor sentiment whether investors are fear or greed before and over the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis has no effect on the causal relationship between the two variables. Further analysis shows an asymmetric causality observed only during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the quantile autoregressive regression model shows a significant positive relationship between investor sentiment and Bitcoin returns.     

Default-risky bond prices with jumps,liquidity risk and incomplete information

This paper provides a default-risky bond valuation model, which assumes that the issuer’s credit quality, modelled by the intensity of default, is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. The model accounts for default and liquidity risk as well as incomplete information. A full-information semimartingale representation of a liquid defaultable bond price, which separates three different types of risks—default, interest-rate and credit-quality, is obtained. The illiquidity is modelled as exogenously specified stochastic reduction in the price of the bond, which adds more risks for the investors. A model of a market with partially informed investors, belonging to specific investor classes and having access to discrete information sets about credit quality, was specified. Valuations of defaultable bonds in this market were provided as well as price impacts of the new information releases.      

Interactive effects of brand reputation and ESG on green bond issues: A sustainable development perspective

This paper shows that brand reputation alone may not be sufficient to help firms successfully issue green bonds and that they may need superior corporate social responsibility performance in the form of high ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) scores to unlock the full potential of their brand reputation. Using a sample of 338 international green bond issues across 108 unique firms, we found significant positive effects of ESG disclosure score and its interaction brand reputation on the issuance of green bonds while controlling for other variables, such as fixed effects of industry, region, and time. We also show that it is the S (Social) component of ESG and the interactions of its E (Environmental) and G (Governance) components with brand reputation which drive successful green bond issuance. Besides extending the current research on the impact of brand reputation and ESG on green bonds, these results also have important managerial implications for analysts, fund managers, and firms planning to raise green capital.     

Stochastic interest rates under rational inattention

This paper introduces state uncertainty due to information-processing constraints into the Vasicek model to examine the impacts of rational inattention. By exploiting the term structure of interest rates, we derive closed-form solutions for the subjective bond price and the corresponding bond yield and find that uncertainty induced by informational frictions plays vital roles in undervaluing the bond price and overestimating the bond yield. Furthermore, we clarify the applications of interest rate dynamics under rational inattention and generate the following results: (i) there is an ambiguous relationship between the investor’s channel capacity and option price; (ii) an increase in state uncertainty via a change in the degree of channel capacity is likely to accelerate investment.     

Layoff victim's employment relationship with a new employer in Korea: effects of unmet tenure expectations on trust and psychological contract

Existing studies of psychological contract have largely focused on the effects of contract breach on employees' attitudes and the contract itself involving the same employer. Given that both workforce mobility and downsizing activities are increasing, it is important to understand how individuals' past employment experiences shape their relationships with their employers. The present study focuses on the effect of prior layoffs on relationships with new employers. We posit that furloughed workers experience layoff as a breach of the psychological contract of job security they have entered into with their employer. Longitudinal data collected from individuals who were re-employed following a layoff revealed that unmet tenure expectations in an employment relationship result in reduced trust in a new employer, which in turn negatively impacts the quality of psychological contracts with the new employer. The results also show that the relationship between unmet tenure expectations and trust was moderated by individual attributions regarding the cause of the layoff. The present findings suggest that the negative impact of contract breach experienced with one organization may carry over to subsequent organizational contexts.     

Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates

This paper explores the time variation in the bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yields on long- and short-term bonds forecasts future excess returns on bonds at varying horizons positively; in addition, the short-term nominal interest rate forecasts both the stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility positively. This paper presents evidence that movements in both the short-term nominal interest rate and the yield spread are positively related to changes in the subsequent realized bond risk and bond return volatility. The yield spread appears to proxy for business conditions, while the short rate appears to proxy for inflation and economic uncertainty. A decomposition of bond betas into a real cash flow risk component and a discount rate risk component shows that yield spreads have offsetting effects in each component. A widening yield spread is correlated with a reduced cash-flow (or inflationary) risk for bonds, but it is also correlated with a larger discount rate risk for bonds. The short rate only forecasts the discount rate component of the bond beta.     

Geopolitical risks and investor sentiment: Causality and TVP-VAR analysis

This paper aims to explore the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR) and investor sentiment in the US stock market based on Granger causality test and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) analysis. Empirical results indicate that changes in geopolitical risks can affect investor sentiment, whereas investor sentiment cannot affect geopolitical risks. More importantly, geopolitical risks have significant negative effects on investor sentiment, suggesting that higher (lower) geopolitical risks dampen (promote) investor sentiment directly or indirectly. Specifically, the negative effects of geopolitical risks show substantial time variation and generally decrease over time. The response of investor sentiment appears to be more pronounced in the short and medium term than in the long term, and is more sensitive to domestic geopolitical events. There is no significant difference in the impacts of geopolitical risks (GPR), geopolitical threats (GPT), and geopolitical acts (GPA). The results obtained are robust for alternative investor sentiment and geopolitical risk indicators.     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

可转换债券市场价格与其基准股票市盈率关系初探

本文试图探讨可转换债券市场价格与其基准股票市盈率间的关系。从理论上分析,市盈率作为一个较易获得的市场指标,包含了上市公司增长机会(growth opportunity)的信息,反映了投资者对未来股价上升的预期。同时可转换债券的价格对其基准股票价格未来上升的可能性十分敏感,因此市盈率与可转换债券市场价格间应存在一定关系。但根据对上海证券交易所转债的实证分析得到:目前我国转债的市场价格与其基准股票市盈率间的关系并不显著,因而市盈率指标不能作为判断转债投资价值的有效依据。