Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals

This paper examines the role of institutional investors in the pricing of accruals. Using Bushee;s (1998) classification of institutional investors, we show that firms with a high level of institutional ownership and a minimum threshold level of active institutional traders have stock prices that more accurately reflect the persistence of accruals. This result holds after controlling for differences in the persistence of accruals between firms with high and low institutional ownership, and after controlling for other characteristics that are correlated with institutional ownership and future returns. Additionally, firms with low institutional ownership are smaller, less profitable, and have lower share turnover, suggesting that limits to arbitrage impede institutional investors from exploiting the seemingly large abnormal returns for these firms.     

Discussion of “Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals”

Collins et al. (2003, this issue) empirically investigate the relation between accruals mispricing and institutional ownership (IO), a proxy for investor sophistication. Their results show that accruals mispricing and IO are negatively correlated; less IO, more accruals mispricing. The authors attribute this differential in accruals mispricing to institutions' superior ability to price accruals either due to superior analytical ability or due to greater access to private information. While the research question is intriguing, a number of methodological limitations may limit the reliability and generality of the findings. In this paper, I discuss these limitations and offer ways of overcoming them, as well as identify a future research avenue in the area of mispricing.     

Accruals,Cash Flows,and Equity Values

We find, as predicted, that the differential ability of accrual and cash flow components of earnings to help forecast future abnormal earnings and the persistence of the components result in the components having different valuation implications. We base our tests on Ohlson (1999) applied to fourteen industries. We find: (1) Accruals and cash flows aid in forecasting future abnormal earnings incremental to abnormal earnings and equity book value. (2) Accruals and cash flows provide explanatory power for equity market value incremental to equity book value and abnormal earnings. (3) There is evidence that accruals and cash flows valuation coefficients are consistent with the Ohlson model.     

Got Information? Investor Response to Form 10-K and Form 10-Q EDGAR Filings

This study examines the investor response to Form 10-K and 10-Q reports filed between 1996 and 2001. The samples comprise essentially the entire body of EDGAR filings, including the small business (SB) versions of each filing type. The study documents that the absolute value of excess return is reliably greater on the day of and on the one or two days immediately following the filing date. The response is stronger around a 10-K date than a 10-Q date, more elevated for delayed filers, and increases significantly over the study period for both filing types. A regression analysis indicates that differences in response due to filing delay and year of filing are not subsumed by other attributes of the information environment, such as changes in industry composition, day of week, market capitalization, and shares held by institutions.     

Elections and Discretionary Accruals: Evidence from 2004

We examine the accrual choices of outsourcing firms with links to U.S. congressional candidates during the 2004 elections, when corporate outsourcing was a major campaign issue. We find that politically connected firms with more extensive outsourcing activities have more income‐decreasing discretionary accruals. Further, relative to adjacent periods, the evidence is concentrated in the two calendar quarters immediately preceding the 2004 election, consistent with heightened incentives for firms to manage earnings during the election season. The incentives can be attributed to donor firms' concerns about the potentially negative consequences of scrutiny over outsourcing for themselves and for their affiliated candidates.     

Accruals Quality, Information Risk and Cost of Capital: Evidence from Australia

Abstract:  Recent theoretical work argues that information risk is a non-diversifiable risk factor that is priced in the capital market. Using accruals quality to proxy for information risk, Francis et al. (2005) provide empirical support for this argument using a sample of US firms. This paper re-examines the interplay of accruals quality, information risk and cost of capital in Australia, where a number of important institutional and regulatory differences are hypothesized to affect the relation between accruals quality and cost of capital. The results suggest that, while accruals quality impacts on the cost of capital for Australian firms, some salient differences exist. In contrast to findings for US firms, the costs of debt and equity for Australian firms are largely influenced by accruals quality arising from economic fundamentals (i.e., innate accrual quality) but not discretionary reporting choices (i.e., discretionary accrual quality). This finding is consistent with our predictions based on the Australian institutional and regulatory environment. In addition, using both the asset pricing tests in Francis et al. (2005) and Core et al. (2008) , we provide evidence consistent with accruals quality being a priced risk factor.     

国际投资者对中国股票资产的价值偏好：来自A-H股和A-B股折扣率的证据

国际投资者因中国经济快速成长而投资A股、H股、B股等中国股票资产。已有研究从硬分割和软分割角度研究了A-H和A-B股折扣率形成原因。本文进一步从国际与国内投资者的价值偏好差异来研究折扣率差异。对1999-2007年的面板数据采用固定效应估计方法,发现在控制其他因素后,折扣率和上市公司的价值变量显著负相关,表明国际投资者偏好价值型的中国股票资产,导致其折扣率偏低。相对信息不对称,价值偏好差异是更重要的资本市场软分割因素。     

内部控制、股权集中度与投资者关系管理——来自A股上市公司投资者关系调查的证据

本文理论分析了内部控制对投资者关系管理的影响,以及作为公司治理重要机制和内部控制环境要素的股权集中度对两者关系的调节效应。在理论分析的基础上,利用投资者关系管理的问卷调查数据、内部控制指数和相关数据进行了实证检验。研究发现,内部控制对投资者关系管理水平存在显著的正向影响,且在股权集中度较低的公司,内部控制对投资者关系管理水平的正向作用更强。     

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the relation between investor sentiment and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests. The sample period extends from July 1997 to June 2005. In the VAR models, stock portfolio returns and investor sentiment proxies are used as endogenous variables. Two dummy variables accounting for natural and economic crises are used as exogenous variables. The analysis results suggest that, excepting shares of equity issues in aggregate issues, stock portfolio returns seem to affect all investor sentiment proxies, namely closed-end fund discount, mutual fund flows, odd-lot sales-to-purchases ratio, and repo holdings of mutual funds. Investor sentiment does not appear to forecast future stock returns; only the turnover ratio of the stock market seems to have forecasting potential.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

Organizational Restructuring, Equity Valuation, and Limited Partnerships

This research investigates common equity price reactions to announcements of limited partnerships (LPs) in which parent firms retain general partnership interests. On average, prices react positively to these announcements, which suggests that creating LPs is a marginally effective method of separately financing investment projects. This study provides evidence that the systematic variation in prediction errors across announcements is positively related to the percent ownership retained in the LP by the parent, which suggests that ownership retention signals information about the value of the LP, the costs of controlling the LP, and the amount of external financing needed for the LP.     

Investor protection and cash holdings: Evidence from US cross-listing

This paper examines (i) whether the level of firms’ cash holdings differ depending on the strength of investor protection, (ii) whether excess cash holdings are valued more with better investor protection, and (iii) whether cross-listed firms that improve investor protection through “bonding” hold relatively more cash than non-cross-listed firms. We analyze 1405 ADR firms and their corresponding matched firms from 39 different countries and document that ADR firms have significantly higher cash holdings relative to their non-cross-listed peers, especially in recent years. The increase in cash holdings is much higher for emerging market firms because of their transition from particularly poor home country investor protection and accounting standards before cross-listing to much higher standards after cross-listing. In addition, firms with level III ADR listing, which represents the strongest investor protection, have higher cash holdings relative to other types of ADR firms.     

Accrual Accounting,Informational Sufficiency,and Equity Valuation

This paper studies accrual accounting and equity valuation in the context of a firm that makes repeated and overlapping investments in productive capacity. The analysis identifies a particular accrual accounting (depreciation) rule that is termed replacement cost accounting because the book value of existing capacity assets is set equal to the value that such assets would have if a competitive market were to exist for used assets. It is shown that replacement cost accounting aggregates past investment decisions of the firm without a loss of value‐relevant information. The intrinsic value of the firm can then be expressed as a function of current accounting data and certain parameters of the firm’s operating environment. Further, it is shown that replacement cost accounting is essentially the only accounting rule with this informational sufficiency property.     

Investor abilities and financial contracting: Evidence from venture capital

Using a large, new database of contractual provisions governing the allocation of cash flow rights in venture capital (VC) financings, we investigate how contract design is related to VC abilities to monitor and provide value-added services to the entrepreneur. We find that more experienced VCs, who have superior abilities and more frequently join the boards of their portfolio companies, obtain weaker downside-protecting contractual cash flow rights than less experienced VCs. Several pieces of evidence suggest that this relation is unlikely to be driven by selection effects. The results suggest that VCs with better governance abilities focus less on obtaining downside protections, which entail risk-sharing costs, and more on other aspects of the contract (such as obtaining board representation) during negotiations with entrepreneurs. The results also imply that previous estimates of the amount entrepreneurs pay for affiliation with high-quality VCs are overstated.     

The UK Equity Premium: 1901–2004

Abstract:  This paper examines the UK equity premium over more than a century using dividend growth to estimate expectations of capital gains employing the approach of Fama and French (2002) . Over recent decades estimated equity premia implied by dividend growth have been much lower than that produced by average stock returns for the UK market as a whole; a finding corroborated by all economic sub-sectors. The empirical analysis suggests this is primarily due to a declining discount rate, during the latter part of the 20th century, which would rationally stimulate unanticipated equity price rises during this period. Thus, I conclude that historical stock returns over recent decades have been above investors' expectations.     

机构投资者、知情人交易和市场效率——来自中国资本市场的实证证据

2001年之后,我国机构投资者正经历着一个快速发展的时期。针对之前屡屡发生的违规行为,机构投资者在我国资本市场发展过程中究竟扮演了什么样的角色目前还存在很大的争议。根据Grossman与Stiglitz(1980)等研究提出的信息经济学理论,机构投资者的作用更直接的体现为通过知情人交易向市场传递信息。在以往研究的基础上,本文通过考察机构投资者交易对股价中公司特有信息含量的影响,从信息的角度对机构投资者在我国资本市场中所起到的作用进行了更进一步的检验。在控制了内生性、噪音等因素影响之后,实证结果显示机构投资者交易确实增加了股价中的公司特有信息含量,提高了市场的效率。本文加深了对我国资本市场中机构投资者的理解和认识,从更直接的角度验证了引入机构投资者对市场的作用,另一方面也在一定程度上说明监管者正确导向了机构投资者的行为。     

Investor Protection and Corporate Governance: Evidence from Worldwide CEO Turnover

Recent research asserts that an essential feature of good corporate governance is strong investor protection, where investor protection is defined as the extent of the laws that protect investors' rights and the strength of the legal institutions that facilitate law enforcement. The purpose of this study is to test this assertion by investigating whether these measures of investor protection are associated with an important role of good corporate governance: identifying and terminating poorly performing CEOs. Our tests indicate that strong law enforcement institutions significantly improve the association between CEO turnover and poor performance, whereas extensive investor protection laws do not. In addition, we find that in countries with strong law enforcement, CEO turnover is more likely to be associated with poor stock returns when stock prices are more informative. Finding that strong law enforcement institutions are associated with improved CEO turnover‐performance sensitivity is consistent with good corporate governance requiring law enforcement institutions capable of protecting shareholders' property rights (i.e., protecting shareholders from expropriation by insiders). Finding that investor  protection laws are not associated with improved CEO turnover‐performance sensitivity is open to several explanations. For example, investor protection laws may not be as important as strong law enforcement in fostering good governance, the set of laws we examine may not be the set that are most important in promoting good governance, or measurement error in our surrogate for extensive investor protection laws may reduce the power of our test of this variable.     

上市公司股权结构、现金股利政策与投资者保护

上市公司的现金股利政策受到诸多因素的制约,而不同的股利派发政策又对投资者保护产生了不同的影响.本文以2005-2009年间沪深两市A股市场1063家上市公司为样本对公司股权结构、现金股利政策与投资者保护三者关系进行实证研究,研究表明:公司股权结构集中度越高、国有控股水平越高的上市公司越倾向于分配现金股利;现金股利政策是一把双刃剑,既可以是投资者寻求权益回报的一种渠道,也可以成为控股股东进行公司资源转移的隐蔽工具.     

Information Producers and Valuation: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

This paper examines valuation and its relation to information production by licensed appraisers across real estate markets. The testable implications are discussed for either a peer monitoring or a crowding out effect in the data. The empirical model is estimated with data for all 50 US states and DC covering the sample period from 1999 to 2008. While analysis is primarily cross-sectional and not causal, the evidence is consistent with theory stating that the minimum quality associated with residential licensure standards may be too low. In contrast, the evidence suggests certified residential standards afford information producers the opportunity to signal or information consumers the ability to screen based on quality.