Influence of Trade Policies on Price Integration in the World Beef Market

The article develops three hypotheses about how policy interventions in major trading nations influence price integration in the world beef market. Simple correlation coefficients, tests for significant differences between coefficients, and Granger causality tests are used to test the hypotheses. First, segmentation between prices in Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)-free and FMD-endemic countries is found, but it is much less than previously assumed. Second, European Community policies that closed the E.C. import market have isolated prices in the E.C. from other markets. These policies also led to greater integration among prices in FMD-free and FMD-endemic market segments by forcing exporters from both segments to compete directly in new import markets. Third, the U.S.A. is found to be the price leader in world beef markets, due not only to market size, but also to U.S. policies that allow transmission of price information from the U.S. market to the world market but not vice versa.     

Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes

The latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project database and the Linkage model of the global economy (projected to 2015) are used to estimate the impact of removing all merchandise trade distortions (including agricultural subsidies). Results suggest that a move to free merchandise trade would increase farm employment, the real value of agricultural output and exports, real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in developing countries. This would occur despite the decline in international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries.     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

Evaluating the Market and Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developed Countries: Comparison of Partial and General Equilibrium Measures

We revisit the question of choosing partial equilibrium or general equilibrium modeling in applied policy analysis in the context of evaluating the effects of a complete phase-out of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union. We compare the results of three models—two three-sector general equilibrium models (one with an additional major distortion in the nonagricultural sector) and a two-sector partial equilibrium model. We find that the market effects of a complete phase-out of the CAP are quite comparable across these models. On the other hand, the measured welfare impacts may depend on the modeling choice.     

多边体制下美国农业补贴政策的审视

农业补贴是当今世界许多国家与地区尤其是发达国家和地区普遍采用的一项重要宏观政策,目的在于保护与促进本国农业发展、提高农产品在国际市场的占有份额.美国巨大的农业补贴将使国际农产品市场供应大幅度增加并导致价格直线回落,对发展中国家的农业生产和经济发展带来较大的压力,不利于全球经济的持续繁荣.研究美国农业补贴政策及影响对我国的农业立法有非常重要的意义.     

Wheat-Importing State Trading Enterprises: Impacts on the World Wheat Market

State trading emerged as one of the more contentious issues at the end of the Uruguay Round of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and US. officials have said that state-trading is an important issue for further negotiation in the mini-round on agriculture scheduled to begin in 1999. The prevalence of state trading by wheat-importing countries is examined, and reasons for reform are explored. This paper investigates two hypotheses: *whether operation of a state trading enterprise is associated with a higher level of protection than with private traders and *whether decisions made by state traders regarding the source of wheat is made on a noncommercial basis. The effective level of protection, net import demand equations and a simple Armington model for U.S. and Canadian wheat exports are estimated to investigate these hypotheses. Behavior is compared across countries who differ in their institutional arrangements for importing wheat. It is also compared over time within countries who have reformed their state trading enterprise to assess whether reform leads to different market behavior. L'intervention directe de 1'État dans les échanges commerciaux extérieurs s'est imposée comme une les questions des plus controversées au terme de l' Uruguay Round des négociations du GATT, et des hauts responsables américains ont laissé entendre qu'il faudra s'y attaquer dans la mini-ronde de négociations sur l ‘agriculture qui doivent commencer en 1999. Nous examinons Vimportance du rôle de I'État chez les pays importateors de blé en explorant les raisons justifiant une réforme. Dewr hypothèses sont considérées: *le fonctionnement de l'agence d'État est liéà un niveau de protection plus élevé qu'il ne l'est avec des interlocuteurs privés et *les décisions prises par l'agence d'État au sujet de la source d'approvisionnement de blé s'ap-puient sur des raisons non commerciales. Pour scruter ces hypothèses, nous calculons le niveau effectif de protection, les équations de demande à l'importation nette et un modèle Armington simple des exportations de bléétats-uniennes et canadiennes. Nous comparons le comportement de pays différant par leurs structures offcielles d'importation du blé. Nous étudions aussi son évolution dans le temps chez les pays qui ont réformé leur agence centrale de commerce extérieur, afin de voir si ces réformes ont conduit à un comportement d'affaires différent.     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

Stop and Go Agricultural Policies with a Land Market

This article studies the design of farm policy in the presence of asymmetric information about farmers' productivity, a government objective to insure farmers a minimum "parity" income, an endogenous land rent, and diminishing returns on alternative (nonprogram crop) land uses. In this setting, acreage set asides are never part of an optimal farm policy, although compensated acreage limits are. When there are new farmer entrants who cannot be excluded from farm programs, optimal policy takes the form of a pure voluntary acreage limitation—or "buyout"—program in which high-cost producers participate and low-cost producers do not.     

农业贸易自由化对我国环境的影响与对策

环境问题是人们普遍关注的重大问题。随着经济全球化与贸易自由化进程的加快 ,贸易与环境问题已成为学术界及世贸组织谈判的重要议题。到目前为止 ,国内学者对贸易与环境问题的讨论 ,大都集中在发达国家实行高标准的环境政策对我国产品国际竞争力影响的问题上 ,较少涉及贸易自由化程度提高对我国环境的影响 ,尤其是在农业方面。经过 1 5年艰苦谈判 ,我国终于加入ＷＴＯ ,它意味着我国农业国际化和自由化程度将不断提高。因此 ,充分认识和研究农业贸易自由化的环境效应及其在我国的表现 ,对政府及时采取有效的政策措施 ,化减负面环境效应 ,实…     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

WTO农业协定对主要成员农产品贸易影响的实证分析

从WTO成立前后对比角度 ,本文对美国、欧盟、凯恩斯集团等WTO主要成员的农产品贸易以及最不发达成员的粮食进口情况 ,采用计量模型等方法进行了实证分析。结果表明 ,WTO农业协定短期内没有对世界农产品贸易产生显著影响 ,其国际制度效果未达到WTO主要成员的预期 ,全球农业贸易保护的格局仍在延续。     

Impacts of BSE on World Trade in Cattle and Beef: Implications for the Canadian Economy

This paper evaluates the impact of BSE‐related trade restrictions on Canada using a general equilibrium model. It links selected results of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) approach, a global computable general equilibrium model, with Basic Model of Regional Trade (BMRT), a Canadian regional model. We find first, that while producers were hurt a lot, there are other general equilibrium considerations (gains to processors and/or consumers) and sectoral adjustments that at the regional level tend to partially offset the losses suffered by producers. We also assess the extent to which opening of the U.S. border is important relative to access to the rest of the world. Our results indicate that the losses to the Canadian economy are around $1 billion and they were reduced significantly when Canada resumed beef trade with the United States, as a result of various government allegations. Le présent article évalue, à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général, les répercussions des restrictions commerciales imposées envers le Canada à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB. Il établit un lien entre les résultats sélectionnés du Projet d'analyse des échanges commerciaux (GTAP), un modèle d'équilibre général mondial et programmable, et ceux du Modèle de base des échanges régionaux (Basic Model of Regional Trade – BMRT), un modèle régional canadien. Bien que les producteurs aient été très touchés, il faut considérer d'autres éléments d'équilibre général (gains réalisés par les transformateurs et/ou les consommateurs) et des ajustements sectoriels qui, à l'échelle régionale, tendent à compenser partiellement les pertes subies par les producteurs. Nous avons évalué l'étendue de l'importance de l'ouverture des frontières des États‐Unis par rapport à l'accès au marché du reste du monde. Selon nos résultats, les pertes pour l'économie canadienne avoisinent le milliard de dollars et ont considérablement diminué lorsque le Canada a repris le commerce duf avec les États‐Unis à la suite de diverses allégations de la part du gouvernement.     

Impact of Environmental Policies in the Hog-Pork Sector on Trade and Market Welfare in North America

The objective of this study is to design a framework to assess trade patterns and market welfare (Marshallian measures of producer and consumer surpluses plus government payments) under various combinations of agricultural, environmental and trade policies. To reach this objective, an environmental model, EPIC, is linked to a model of the North American hog-pork sector. The reduction in Québec inventories, following the implementation of environmental policies, triggers a decrease of Canadian live hog exports to the U.S. and an increase of U.S. pork exports to Canada. Environmental policies are responsible for decreases in welfare. The decrease in welfare is the largest when a moratorium in North America is simulated. Since trade liberalization has a positive impact on welfare, the welfare decrease from a moratorium is somewhat attenuated under free trade conditions.     

农业国际化对农业现代化的影响

农业现代化体现为农业技术的全面升级、农业结构的现代转型和农业制度的现代变迁。农业国际化对农业现代化具有积极的推动作用。这体现在三个方面：（1）农业国际化通过供给和需求两个方面推动农业技术进步；（2）农业国际化也有利于投入结构的优化、生产结构的升级和品质结构的改善；（3）农业国际化对农业的市场化和现代农业组织的建立具有积极的影响。