王传斌：洒脱纯粹的青瓷大师

说起青瓷大师王传斌．认识他、熟悉他的人,评价都不尽相同。“王传斌为人谦和质朴,低调豁达．不修边幅．洒脱而不拘小节．富有个性,但他对待作品认真负责．追求完美。““王传斌是个奇人。他的奇．体现在形貌上,颀长精瘦．头发蓬生．乱须垂垂,土木形骸．悠悠忽忽。他的奇,也体现在作品上．造型独特．釉色纯美．像一道清爽滋润、静寂亮丽．晶莹蕴蓄的景色出现在眼前。”     

热茶氤氲的时候

五年前,银杏树叶子黄了的时候．我去台湾;回来时．银杏树的叶子落了一地．阳光下,一片金黄。今年,银杏树叶子黄了的时候．台湾朋友来;到走时,银杏树叶子会落．也会是阳光下一片金黄。五年前．在台湾,在圆山饭店昆仓厅,在回请晚宴上。我对朋友们说：“我要回去了．回到北京,冬日渐临,我在家里手捧热茶,热气氤氲的时候,我会回忆在台湾的点点滴滴．想念各位朋友。这样的回忆,让冬日更加温暖。”五年来．我的每一个冬日都温暖如春．那是朋友们的情谊包裹着我。而且,不仅在家里,在办公室、在出差的飞机上、在对异国的访问中,我都会回忆,都有温馨和甜蜜。     

神示的诗篇

“插箭”的季节．冥冥中,我仿佛听见了一种声音在耳语．看见一个手势在挥动．一扇门在缓慢打开。于是,我不作他念．抱上我的尼康D700．长驱而行．夜半时分抵达了那一片神明庇护的星空下——甘南。     

我的平凡税收经历

1950年．新中国成立不久．还处在恢复经济的阶段．从旧社会解放出来的新中国．百废待举．税务工作同样都要从头做起。这时刚从学校走向社会的我．来到了一个陌生的环境．就是税务战线．当时我对税务工作在脑海里还是一片空白．虽然我学习的是财会专业．但没有实践体会．我要在税收这个战线上从头学起．在一张白纸上绘就自己人生的蓝图。     

张雨的京剧影楼

2000年．学包装出身的张俊和两位同事辞去公司工作．在上海一所大学附近开了家礼品包装店．提供礼品创意包装．根据顾客的要求订做礼品盒、礼品袋．同时提供送货上门服务。小店自开业以来．生意一直很红火。张俊认为他们能将生意在短时间内做得这么火．主要原因在于：第一．上海还很少有专门的礼品包装店．一般礼品包装都由礼品店提供．这使他们的店一开张就很引人瞩目。第二．他们都是学包装出身的．在大学里读的就是这门专业．     

智者的足迹

《夜月听钟》是一部作者几十年心路历程回望的书籍。 120篇零散独立的文章,散文．诗歌．报告．日记等．错落有致,被作者精心编排在”灵与肉的拷问”．“人性的底蕴”、“岁月的凝望”、。工作着是美丽的”．”那个年代”五个部分中．杂陈但有序。对家国天下的忧思、对人生岁月的凝望．对事业生活的投入、对同事友人的情谊,在感性和热烈的文字中跳跃着。     

美国的汽车拍卖行

我在美国时,曾买过一辆日本产的二手斯巴鲁。原车主山山水水跑了十二万英里．把它送进车行抵价．再添些钱买辆新车。车行把斯巴鲁又运到汽车拍卖行。我就是在那里．在漫山遍野密密麻麻的旧车世界中遇见它的。尽管车漆发乌．车标上那六颗白星也已暗淡,但车内设施还算可以．我特别看重的录放、空调．定速等装置一应俱全。     

对保险业反洗钱工作的初探

洗钱是指将毒品犯罪、黑社会性质的组织犯罪、恐怖活动犯罪、走私犯罪、贪污贿赂犯罪、破坏金融管理秩序犯罪、金融诈骗犯罪等犯罪所得及其收益．通过各种手段隐藏或掩饰起来．并使之在形式上合法化的行为和过程。所有涉及反洗钱的国家和地区以及国际组织都不约而同地达成共识．即金融机构的反洗钱是反洗钱的核心．其中保险机构占有重要组成部分。据1996年英国有关当局统计,在全部上报当局的可疑款项中．银行业占78％．保险公司占3％．其他组织占19％。在国际上．过去监督方的重点主要在银行系统．但是．在对银行系统反洗钱监管越来越严格的情况下．洗钱者开始将视线投向保险这个对保额扩张极度渴望的行业。我国新颁布的《中华人民共和国反洗钱法》（以下简称《反洗钱法》）．在法律层面上确立了保险公司在反洗钱工作中应履行的义务。我国反洗钱工作还处于起步阶段,因此,研究探讨保险业的反洗钱工作具有重要的现实意义。     

牛刀：伯南克的低利率影响中国的通胀

不久前．财经评论人牛刀在博客中撰文说．伯南克．从他上任的第一天,很多人就在嘲笑他是美国历史上唯一一位只知道“坐着直升机满世界撒钞票”的美联储主席。令人无奈的是．他一天撒钞票不止．中国的通胀就一天不会停止上涨。     

北京的雾霾

北京人素质高．胡同里的大妈既不懂航海．又不会开飞机,但她会说“能见度”。正午时分站在当街一望．天地昏昏沉沉,建筑影影绰绰．大妈便对邻家老头说,今儿这天怎么了,能见度太差。老头说．一氧化碳也高。又说．下场大雨就好了。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。