What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques

Despite the importance of Germany as an issuer of foreign direct investment (FDI), the studies analyzing its determinants are far from conclusive. This research contributes to filling this gap providing new evidence for the period 1996–2012. In order to reduce model uncertainty, we adopt a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. We find that determinants associated with horizontal FDI appear to be dominant for explaining FDI in developed countries while for the group of developing countries covariates associated with vertical FDI motives play a larger role. Within Europe, while the majority of FDI is horizontally driven in “core” countries, in the “periphery” vertical motivations seem to prevail. Moreover, our results are compatible with more complex FDI models where vertical determinants and institutional variables are gaining prominence as does the leading role currently played by Germany in global value chains (GVC). Our results may provide hints for policymakers’ strategies to attract German investment.     

Does anti-bribery enforcement deter foreign investment?

This article presents the first empirical evidence that bilateral fixed capital flows fall in response to anti-bribery enforcement actions. We hand-collect data on individual enforcement actions initiated by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and show that anti-bribery enforcement in a country is followed by a 40% reduction in foreign fixed capital investments made by US companies in that country.     

Does WTO accession matter for the dynamics of foreign direct investment and trade?

The aim of this article is to study the impacts of World Trade Organization accession on the dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade in Vietnam. In order to do this, we employ an augmented gravity model and use a panel data set covering bilateral trade and FDI between Vietnam and its 17 most important partner countries, over the period 1990–2008. Firstly, we find that WTO accession has a significantly positive effect both on Vietnam’s imports and on inward FDI. Secondly, even though we find no evidence to demonstrate convincingly that WTO accession influences Vietnam’s exports, this accession seems to indirectly encourage Vietnam’s exports through the FDI channel due to a strong connection between these two.     

What drives bilateral foreign direct investment among Asian economies?

This study analyses the role of knowledge transfers via bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) among 31 Asian economies. We make three distinct contributions to the literature on the drivers of FDI by: (1) applying the knowledge-capital model to FDI among Asian economies for the first time, using a comprehensive data set, and comparing it to an empirical gravity-type model of FDI; (2) conducting model selection tests to choose between alternative empirical specifications and estimation methods; and (3) modelling both the FDI participation decision and the decision on the amount of FDI. The main findings are: (1) while vertical FDI, driven by seeking low-cost unskilled labour, appears to be the dominant type of intra-Asian FDI, overall the knowledge-capital model is not supported by the data; and (2) conventional gravity variables (e.g., size, distance, common language) provide a better explanation of intra-Asian FDI and, therefore, a more suitable vehicle for future research.     

Does foreign direct investment increase exports’ productivity? Evidence from developing and emerging countries

Raising the productivity content of exports is an important issue for developing and emerging countries. What role do foreign firms play in this process? This question has not been adequately studied. We contribute to the literature by generalizing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the host country’s export productivity level. Using panel data, we present new empirical evidence suggesting that FDI boosts the overall productivity level of the developing and emerging countries’ exports.     

Does domestic financial development enhance the linkages between foreign direct investment and economic growth?

The study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, and economic growth in a panel of 95 developed and developing countries from 1983 to 2006. The study moves away from the traditional cross-sectional analysis, and focuses on more direct evidence of the channels via which FDI might help or retard economic growth. Using generalized method of moment (GMM) panel data analysis, we find strong evidence of a positive relationship between FDI inflows into a country and its economic performance. We also find evidence that domestic financial system is a significant prerequisite for FDI to have a positive effect on economic growth. Policy implications are clear. Effort should be made to reform and improve the development of domestic financial system in order to benefit more from the presence of FDI.     

Does foreign direct investment promote growth? Exploring the role of financial markets on linkages

Do multinational companies generate positive externalities for the host country? The evidence so far is mixed varying from beneficial to detrimental effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth, with many studies that find no effect. In order to provide an explanation for this empirical ambiguity, we formalize a mechanism that emphasizes the role of local financial markets in enabling FDI to promote growth through backward linkages. Using realistic parameter values, we quantify the response of growth to FDI and show that an increase in the share of FDI leads to higher additional growth in financially developed economies relative to financially under-developed ones.     

Is foreign direct investment attracted to ‘knowledge creators’?

The effect of?‘knowledge creators’?on location patterns of new foreign plants entering the USA from 1986 to 1993 is analysed. The empirical results from a conditional logit model suggest a link exists between knowledge bases, measured by patent counts, and the location decisions of foreign plants. In the limit, these results imply that a 1%?increase in patent counts is associated with an increase in the probability of attracting a new foreign plant by as much as 1.874%.     

Does the digital divide across countries lead to convergence? New international evidence

We examine the convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT) among 47 developed and emerging countries using annual data from 2000 to 2012. We construct an ICT development index using a principal component analysis. The results, based on a dynamic panel data model, reveal a divergence in ICT development. This study identifies two factors that drive a country's digitalization divergence level: the growth of per capita income and the ratio of urban to rural population. In addition, ICT divergence is higher in emerging countries than in developed countries.     

Does free trade promote environmental technology transfer?

We investigate how environmental and trade policies affect the transfer of environmental technology in a two-country model with global pollution. By comparing free trade and tariff policy with or without commitment, the following results are obtained. First, firms avoid the implementation of environmental tax by contracting technological transfer. Second, there is a case in which free trade is preferable to a tariff policy for both countries when there is no commitment to a tariff level. Third, free trade is not Pareto-preferred to a tariff policy when there is a commitment.     

Does foreign technology transfer spur domestic innovation? Evidence from the high-speed rail sector in China

This paper investigates the introduction of high-speed railway (HSR) technology into China to study the local impacts of foreign technology transfer. The large-scale technology transfer project, covering specific technological categories and directly benefiting railway-related firms in various cities, enables us to describe how foreign technology is digested and spurs follow-up innovation in firms apart from directly receiving ones. We find that technology transfer generates significant localized spillovers to nearby firms not only in terms of more patents, but also as higher productivity and revenue growth. Moreover, technological similarity, rather than input-output linkages, plays a dominant role in explaining the knowledge spillover both at the firm level and the aggregate level, which indicates the importance of absorptive capacity in digesting foreign technologies. Overall, our paper sheds new light on the innovation policy of developing countries as well as the global business strategy of multinational corporations (MNCs).     

Global uncertainty and capital flows: any difference between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment?

This note investigates how global uncertainty relates to extreme waves of capital flows, including foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment. We find the clear differences in the role of global uncertainty between advanced and developing economies. Global uncertainty increases the likelihood of sudden contraction of portfolio investment in both advanced and developing economies, while it increases that of foreign direct investment in only advanced economies.     

Does human capital constrain the impact of foreign direct investment and remittances on economic growth in Ghana?

This article empirically investigates whether human capital constrains the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances on economic growth in Ghana. An economic growth model for Ghana is specified and estimated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator and employing annual data spanning the period 1965 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that FDI and remittances are key determinants of economic growth in Ghana. Results indicate that human capital enhances the impact of FDI and remittances on economic growth. Although both government expenditure and trade openness are growth-enhancing, government expenditure appears to crowd-out private investment. Empirical results also indicate that domestic inflationary pressures, unstable political environment and volatile global economy exert a negative impact on economic growth in Ghana.     

Does immigration crowd out foreign direct investment inflows? Tradeoff between contemporaneous FDI-immigration substitution and ethnic network externalities

This study examines the dynamic interactions between immigration and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using bilateral data on these indicators between Japan and each of the 29 countries/economies of origin for both FDI and immigrants into Japan during 1996–2011. Although literature shows a positive FDI–migration relationship, I distinguish between short- and long-term effects of immigration, and show a contemporaneous negative relationship between FDI and immigration. The results show that immigration flows discourage FDI inflows (FDI–migration substitution), although larger immigration stocks induce FDI inflows (ethnic network externalities). Therefore, total effects need to be evaluated considering a tradeoff between contemporaneous substitution and the longer-term complementarity from network effects. While inward FDI promotion and immigration enhancement are often suggested as solutions to resolving shortages in domestic savings and labor, our results have implications for addressing the increasingly daunting policy issue of population aging.     

China’s regulatory framework for outward foreign direct investment

China has become the world’s third largest outward investor, behind the United States and Japan. A growing body of literature suggests that China’s regulatory framework for outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is a determinant of the country’s rising OFDI. This article presents a holistic review of that framework, including some possibilities for its improvement. Overall, China’s framework serves two objectives: to help Chinese firms become more competitive internationally and to assist the country in its development effort. In pursuing these objectives, the regulatory framework has moved from restricting, to facilitating, to supporting, to encouraging OFDI, but there are still strong elements of administrative control that make it cumbersome. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) seem to benefit particularly from the current framework when internationalizing through FDI.     

Does it matter where you come from? Vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment and the origin of investors

This study uses firm-level panel data from Romania to examine whether the origin of foreign investors affects the degree of vertical spillovers from FDI. Investors' origin may matter for spillovers to domestic producers supplying intermediate inputs in two ways. First, the share of intermediates sourced locally by multinationals is likely to increase with the distance between the host and the source economy. Second, the sourcing pattern is likely to be affected by preferential trade agreements. In this case, the Association Agreement between Romania and the European Union (EU) implies that inputs sourced from the EU are subject to a lower tariff than inputs sourced from the United States or Canada. This means that on average American investors may have a greater incentive than EU investors to source from Romania and hence present a greater potential for vertical spillovers. The empirical analysis produces evidence consistent with this hypothesis. The results show a positive association between the presence of American companies in downstream sectors and the productivity of Romanian firms in the supplying industries and no significant relationship in the case of European affiliates. The results also indicate that Romanian firms in sectors whose products are expensive to transport benefit more from downstream presence of American affiliates than Romanian firms in sectors with low shipping costs. No such pattern is found for European affiliates.     

Do financial development,foreign direct investment,and economic growth enhance industrial development? Fresh evidence from Sub-Sahara African countries

Portuguese Economic Journal - This study investigates the impact of financial development, economic growth, and foreign direct investment on enhancing industrial growth for a panel of selected...     

Determinants of foreign direct investment of OECD countries 1991–2001

It is the objective of this paper to identify the determinants that led to the increase in worldwide foreign direct investment during the 1990s. The paper also addresses the question of whether these factors influenced exports differently. Therefore, using data from 22 countries reporting to the OECD, gravity models for bilateral FDI stocks/flows and exports are estimated, first in a cross-section setting for 1999 and then as a panel data set for the period 1991–2001. In order to control for EU-specific effects, a distinction is made between intra-EU25 observations and observations outside the EU25 area. Regressions are repeated with exports as a dependent variable in order to elaborate how far determinants of trade flows are identical or how far they differ. In the panel context, the results show that a change in total market size is an important aspect that leads both FDI and exports in the same direction. Only exports are significantly influenced by relative market size. Stock market booms boost FDI but not exports. Political indicators and exchange rate changes suggest that exports are demand-driven while FDI is supply-driven. Overall, FDI and exports tended to flow relatively less abundantly to distant countries than to nearby countries over the period under consideration. This supports the idea of a complementary relationship between investment and trade. However, this trend is reversed for exports within the EU25 area.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality in developing countries: Does sector matter?

Scholars have studied the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and within‐country income inequality in cross‐national contexts, but have not empirically investigated how FDI in different sectors might affect inequality in different ways. We use error correction models to analyze sectoral FDI data compiled from UNCTAD investment reports in 60 middle‐income countries from 1989 to 2010, arguing that FDI in services is more likely to be associated with inequality than FDI in other sectors. We argue that skill biases and changes in employment patterns associated with service sector investments can help explain these findings.