PROMOTING EFFORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE IMPACT OF IMPORT PROMOTION OFFICES

Increasing exports from developing countries is widely regarded as an important part of a development and growth strategy. A major problem confronting exporters from developing countries is the many market barriers they typically face when attempting to enter markets in developed countries. Different institutions have been established to alleviate this problem, including export promotion offices (EPOs) in various developing countries and import promotion offices (IPOs) in several developed countries. The present study explores the impact of IPOs on exports from developing to developed countries by examin ing the actual pattern of imports into OECD countries over the period 1988 to 1993. Four specific product groups are selected and a model pertaining to explain the pattern of imports is presented. The results show that, even after controlling for a number of economic and policy variables, the share of imports originating in developing coun tries is indeed positively influenced by the presence of an IPO in the importing country. Thus, the results suggest that the establishment of an IPO may have a positive impact on the share of imports originat ing in developing countries.     

Parallel imports and piracy in a North–South model

We consider welfare effects of parallel imports under a possibility of piracy, by constructing a model where a monopoly firm sells its product in a developed country and in a developing country. We show that parallel imports do not always make the firm worse off and consumers better off. Sometimes parallel imports benefit both the firm and consumers, irrespective of the existence of piracy. However, piracy makes parallel imports more preferable to consumers and less preferable to the firm. We also suggest that a developing country’s policy on piracy can be internationally coordinated with a developed country's policy on parallel imports, so as to improve the welfare of these countries.     

The biggest losers (and winners) from US trade liberalization

Many development experts worry that continuing reductions of tariff levels in high-income countries will limit trade flows from developing countries that benefit from preferential trade programs because of ‘preference erosion.’ Using a panel of US import data between the years of 1997 and 2005, I find that reductions in preference margins will significantly diminish imports of some products, particularly from lower-middle and low income countries; for example, a 1% reduction in the US tariff on a product that is currently imported duty-free from developing countries will decrease imports of that product from lower-middle income countries by an average of 2.6%. However, many products produced by developing countries fail to qualify for preferential tariffs, thus a gradual reduction in all US tariff rates is expected to have only a modest impact on trade flows from developing countries.     

Gains and Losses from Preferential Trade Agreements: Some Evidence from NAFTA

In this article we integrate two topics in international trade policy that have received (separately) a lot of attention: the effects of regional trade blocs, and export pessimism regarding poorer countries. The specific issue that allows us to bring together these questions is whether regional integration adversely affects non-members. We use quarterly data on bilateral trade flows for the period 1990 through 1997 to examine U.S. imports from its NAFTA partners as well as from non-NAFTA trade partners, and more specifically, those countries expected to be hurt by NAFTA. Two measures are used:

1. “import penetration” or imports from a particular source as a share of US GDP, and

2. the income elasticity of expenditure on imports from a particular source. Both “import penetration” and the income elasticity of expenditure affect the export earnings of U.S. trade partners, a matter of particular concern for developing countries.

The broadest pattern observed in the income-expenditure elasticities is clear evidence of increased penetration by non-oil developing countries. This is in marked contrast to the stable GDP share and expenditure elasticity for developed country imports. Regional results suggest that the Caribbean and the East Asian NICs were the only area groupings that experienced a reduction in income-expenditure elasticity. But overall on the basis of U.S. income-expenditure elasticities it appears that the first four years of NAFTA were associated with trade expansion rather than trade diversion.     

Export Competitiveness of Developing Countries and US Trade Policy

This paper examines the impact of the revocation of tariff exemptions on exports of developing countries using data from cases of the Competitive Needs Limits (CNL), a feature of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Competitive Needs Limits are arguably imposed on ‘super competitive’ GSP beneficiaries who no longer need the preferential treatment, and aim to reserve the GSP benefits for other GSP eligible countries. The findings suggest that being excluded from the GSP as a result of a CNL induces a large and significant drop in US imports from affected countries, both in value and as a share of total US imports, and much of their market share is captured by non‐GSP countries, contrary to the policy objectives of CNLs.     

The optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves

This paper presents a model for selecting an optimal foreign exchange reserves portfolio for semi-industrial and developing countries, using the mean—approach. The model described here focuses on the relationship between the composition of reserves and that of imports, as well as the impact of return and risk of the investments in each currency. The empirical importance of these factors is demonstrated by investigating the optimal policy for Israel in the period 1972–1976. In comparing the actual and the efficient portfolio of different groups of countries, we find that profit considerations play a greater role in semi-industrial and developing countries than in industrial ones.     

Learning-by-importing in emerging innovation systems: evidence from Ecuador

Using data from the population of Ecuadorian importers, we examine the extent to which the characteristics of their imports relate to their labor productivity. Results indicate that the technological intensity of imports does not explain differences in labor productivity, although the region of origin of imports explains differences in the manufacturing sector, as imported technologies from advanced regions are associated with superior labor productivity. Nevertheless, as technology intensive imports are not associated with superior performance, we argue that importers from developing countries may use foreign technology inexpertly due to the lack of absorptive capacity and the emerging nature of their national innovation system.     

Countertrade with developing countries: New opportunities for North-South trade?

Unconventional forms of international trade (such as counterpurchase, compensation deals and barter) have assumed rapidly growing importance, especially in many developing countries, as a consequence of the fall in commodity prices and the worsening of international debt problems since the oil price increases of 1973–74 and 1979. By using these trading methods countries expect to be able to ensure a continuation of the urgently needed flow of imports, open up new markets for surplus products and bring about greater export diversification as between both regions and products. The following article therefore focuses on the countertrade of Third World countries, both among themselves and with industrialised countries.     

Globalization and female labor force participation: The role of trading partners

This paper uses industrial level data from 21 developing and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2013, to analyze the impact of globalization, in particular, trade orientation of industries onto female employment share. The fractional probit estimation reveals that taking cumulative measures of export and import share often camouflages the impact of trade on female employment. The disintegration of export and import share according to their trading partners reveals that exports and imports from the developed world alone contribute to higher female employment. Moreover, it is the low-tech exports to developed countries and high-tech imports from developed countries which results in an increase in female employment. These findings call for the strengthening of trade ties with the developed world, especially when it comes to promoting low-tech exports and high-tech imports. Our results also reveal that the trading links with the developed world can further enhance female employment if developing country possesses a greater pool of educated female labor force.     

The future of cooperation between the EU and ACP countries

Something over 20 years after the first Lomé Agreement came into force, most of the ACP countries are still among the poorest in the world. Why have these countries' situations not improved despite the Agreements? Why has their share of total EC imports from developing countries fallen in spite of the tariff preferences they are granted? What conclusions ought to be drawn for future cooperation between the EC and ACP countries?     

Trick or Treat? Development Opportunities and Challenges in the WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs

Negotiations on industrial tariffs in the current WTO work programme have turned out to be surprisingly difficult. On the one hand, developing countries, particularly in Africa, are concerned about the potential negative effect on their industrial development of developed country efforts to push them into deep cuts in applied tariffs: after the disillusion of the Uruguay Round, promises of welfare gains seem unconvincing. On the other hand, a number of the more complex formula proposals for tariff‐cutting make it difficult for participants to evaluate what they have to do compared with what they hope to receive. The developing countries may achieve greater exports and welfare gains from the more ambitious proposals, but computations show that these also imply greater imports, lower tariff revenues, some labour market adjustments and reduced output in some politically sensitive sectors. Some way of assisting the developing countries in coping with these adjustments is required to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the negotiations.     

An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Anti‐dumping Behaviour in India

The use of anti‐dumping measures as a trade protection tool, has increased phenomenally during the last decade. One significant aspect of this new trend is the increasing involvement of developing countries. India is one such country which has emerged as a very frequent user of anti‐dumping measures, surpassing even the traditional users. It had initiated more than 300 anti‐dumping cases by the end of 2002–03. Many of these cases are against developing countries. Most of the cases are concentrated in narrow range product groups, like chemicals and petrochemicals, iron and steel, pharmaceuticals and textiles. This study examines India's experience with anti‐dumping measures. The main objective of the study is to identify the factors which might have influenced the anti‐dumping behaviour in India. Discussion of these factors shows that imports have increased considerably. This is particularly true for a number of developing countries facing dumping charges in India. At the same time, many of the domestic producers of the like products have performed poorly during the last decade. Such trends may instigate the import‐competing industries to seek anti‐dumping protection and may also influence the authority to provide that. However, the results of our statistical exercise show that, although imports and performance of the domestic industry might have influenced the initiation of anti‐dumping cases, these factors did not seem to significantly influence the final decision of the authority. The results rather indicated a tendency on the part of the authority to provide anti‐dumping protection to industries, which are characterised by a large number of firms.     

Notes on unequal exchange between developing and industrialised countries

Proponents of the theory of unequal exchange claim that the international division of labour is based on the exploitation of the developing countries by the industrialised countries. But the international division of labour allows the developing countries to import goods which they either could not produce themselves, or only at a higher price than they pay for the imports. The lower wage-levels in the developing countries may also help them to obtain employment at the expense of the industrialised countries. Low wages are therefore ultimately not a question of exploitation but of development priorities.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Product‐level Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows at product level, with a particular focus on trade creation and diversion. Based on estimation of the gravity equation, dealing with the zero trade flows and endogeneity bias problems, we analyse the impacts of various types of RTAs involving 67 countries for 20 products during the 1980–2006 period. We find that RTAs among developing countries tend to cause trade diversion compared with RTAs among developed countries. Taking the higher external tariff rates of developing countries compared with developed countries into consideration, our results suggest trade diversion is likely to be caused by remaining high tariffs on imports from non‐members. In addition, we find the trade creation effect for many products in the cases of Customs Unions and plurilateral RTAs. These results imply that trade creation would be caused by various factors besides the reduction in tariff rates. Based on these results, we draw a policy implication that external tariff rate reduction is an important factor in avoiding trade diversion in the formation of RTAs, in particular for RTAs among developing countries, while a large number of members and the common external tariff appear to be important for generating the trade creation effect.     

CONSUMERS’ VIEWS ON RESTRICTING IMPORTED APPAREL

The United States and most developed countries have experienced a dramatic influx of imported apparel, usually from low-wage, developing countries. In the U.S., industry representatives, retailers, economists, and others have been vocal in expressing their views to influence trade negotiations aimed at orderly trade in this commodity area. Consumers are affected by trade agreements but appear never to have been consulted previously regarding the restriction of imported apparel. This paper gives results of a telephone survey of 408 consumers in 10 areas of the eastern U.S. to ascertain their views toward apparel imports. Overall, respondents expressed strong preference for domestically produced apparel. A majority of the consumers perceived a trade deficit in apparel, saw imports as damaging to the domestic industry, felt that stronger laws should be passed to further restrict imported apparel, and said their clothing purchases were influenced by their views toward limiting imports. Chi-square tests determined relationships among the variables. A noteworthy contradiction was present in the findings. If further restrictions on imports were to become a reality, as the consumers said they would prefer, this means that respondents expressed loyalty to the domestic industry at the expense of being able to make choices which might be most advantageous to them as consumers.     

Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains

This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the United States and China can have on third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from input–output relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the United States and China on cumulative tariffs paid by third countries. We show that the tariff hikes increase cumulative tariffs for other countries and thus hurt trade partners further downstream in global supply chains. We also show that this is particularly important for tariff increases on Chinese imports in the United States. These are likely to be used as intermediates in production in the United States, which are then re-exported to third countries. The most heavily hit third countries are the closest trade partners, namely the EU, Canada and Mexico. We estimate that the tariffs impose an additional burden of around 500 million to 1 billion US dollars on these countries. China's tariffs on US imports have less of an effect.     

Imports from developing countries: Reasons for protection and proposals for liberalization

Protectionism in international trade, in particular with regard to imports from developing countries, has increased rapidly since the beginning of the 1970s. Dieter Schumacher analyses the reasons for this development and makes some proposals for a liberalization of trade which take the conflicts between domestic objectives in the industrialised countries and the international division of labour into account.     

Parallel Imports,their Deterrence and Accommodation with Service Differentiation

In the traditional economics models, parallel imports prevent a manufacturer from price discrimination involving the same good between countries. As a result, the manufacturer loses profit and tries to discourage parallel imports. The consumers in low-price countries also lose when parallel imports are legalized because the price in such countries increases. When value-added services such as a warranty and technical support are available only for the authorized product (i.e., when services are differentiated), however, the manufacturer may obtain a larger profit with parallel imports, as shown in literature. We extend this study by analyzing the case in which the manufacturer can choose the level of value-added services. It turns out that the manufacturer may even encourage parallel imports when the cost for value-added services is not too low or too high. We also show that the consumers in low-price countries may gain when parallel imports are legalized.     

Fending off waste from the west: The impact of China's Operation Green Fence on the international waste trade

China launched the first Operation Green Fence (OGF) on 1 February 2013 to fend off inflows of illegal waste. The main objective of OGF was to enforce waste trade policies already adopted by China and thereby restrict illegal waste imports. We use a gravity model of international trade with annual bilateral waste trade data at the 6-digit HS code level to assess the impact of OGF on the international waste trade. First, we study the direct impact of OGF and find that the intervention resulted in a 26% drop in low-quality waste exports to China from developed countries. Second, we assess the impact of OGF on exports from developed countries to developing countries, excluding China. We do not find a statistically significant effect of OGF on low-quality waste exports from developed countries to developing countries (excluding China). We also test the waste haven hypothesis and do not find evidence that waste exports were disproportionately diverted to countries with lax environmental regulation.     

Impact of Openness on Growth in Different Country Groups

This paper evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups using a panel of 79 countries over the period 1970–98. It distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: Firstly, both trade and FDI are included as measures of openness. Secondly, countries are classified into high‐, middle‐ and low‐income groups to compare the roles of trade and FDI in these groups. Thirdly, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of trade and FDI are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are as follows. Total trade has a general positive impact on growth in all country groups, although the impact from imports is not significant in high‐income countries. FDI has a positive impact on growth in high‐ and middle‐income countries, but not in low‐income countries. With the existing absorptive capabilities, low‐income countries can benefit from both exports and imports, but not from FDI. These findings suggest that trade and FDI affect growth through different channels and under different conditions. The paper also discusses important policy implications.