Kurzfristige Kehrtwende bei der Beschaffung neu zu errichtender Anlagen für die Netzreserve in Deutschland

Shortly before the decision of the Electricity Market Law on June 22, 2016 took place, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) changed its mind with respect to the procurement of new power plants for the German grid reserve. Other than originally planned, this is no longer organized via a competitive bidding process. Instead, the responsibility for the procurement will be transferred to the transmission system operators, which therefore face the challenge of implementing an appropriate procurement mechanism. This paper presents an economic explanation for this short-term change. Our analysis reveals that the proposed transfer of the concept for the procurement of spare capacity to the procurement of the grid reserve was not appropriate. The bidders would have been exposed to significant risks, in particular due to high cost and calculation uncertainties, which are also critical with respect to the achievement of the objectives of the grid reserve. Therefore, we consider the decision of refusing the original procurement concept as the right step, although we consider a competitive procedure advantageous. However, such a procedure has to take the special requirements of the grid reserve into account. Yet this problem remains even after the transfer of responsibility from the BMWi to the transmission system operators.     

Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der Biomethaneinspeisung auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Erdgasversorgung

Natural gas offers several advantages compared to other fossil fuels, especially regarding its specific CO₂ emissions and its flexibility in usage. Thus, it is expected that the consumption of natural gas will further increase in the future. Nevertheless, this increase is accompanied by a growing dependence on imports. Biomethane, i.e. conditioned biogenous gas, is an interesting possibility for the substitution of natural gas. As it is a renewable and indigenous energy source, it contributes to the reduction of both: CO₂ emissions and gas imports. Similar to the renewable electricity generation, the German government sets targets for the biomethane feed-in and has introduced promotion mechanisms to achieve these goals. Within this paper the possible role of biomethane in the German natural gas supply has been evaluated by applying the optimising energy flow model PERSEUS-EEM. Results show that the CO₂ emissions trading system by itself is not sufficient for the competitiveness of biomethane. Model results demonstrate that a significant increase of the German natural gas demand can be expected especially due to the stringent CO₂ reduction targets. Even when the political CO₂-reduction targets are reached, biomethane will not play a major role in the natural gas supply of Germany.     

?konometrische Analyse der Temperaturvariabilit?t

This paper aims at analysing temperature fluctuations by applying an econometric methodology. To this end a physically founded macroclimate model is suggested for individual examinations of the climate forcing of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and other greenhouse gases as well as of the cooling effect of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) since 1880 and for a comparison of their impacts. The autoregressive process in the temperature anomalies is analysed, and a cointegration analysis is carried out to show that a long-term causal interrelation can be derived from the stochastic trend variables considered. However, this interrelation is not unique. It turns out that anthropogenic factors and total solar irradiance determine the warming trend in the period 1880 to 2005, whilst the remaining natural factors explain a part of the deviation from this trend. With 42?% the autoregressive process in the anomalies has a considerable impact on the temperature increase. Climate sensitivity amounting to 0.11 (K?m²)/W therefore is comparatively low. If the share of the autoregressive process is allocated to each regressor individually CO₂ has an impact of 65?%. The SO₂ emissions have a significant cooling effect, neutralizing 45?% of the climate forcing of CO₂. The non-CO₂ greenhouse gases contribute 55?% to the temperature increase and hence more than the net effect of CO₂ and SO₂ of 36?%. Hence, the sensitivity of the climate with regard to these greenhouse gases is very high. When applying accelerated mitigation measures with respect to non-CO₂ greenhouse gases it is possible to reach the 2^° target without decarbonisation.     

Wie viel Europa braucht die Energiewende?

It is often argued that Germany’s energy transition (the so-called “Energiewende”) needs to be “Europeanized”, so as to make the transition process more efficient. In particular, the German system of feed-in tariffs for renewables is criticized for being an obstacle to efficient European energy supply. However, we point out that Germany’s approach is no outlier but rather well embedded in the European context of heterogeneous energy policies. Also, full centralization and harmonization of political decisions on the EU-level may not be desirable in many fields of energy policy beyond climate protection if the full economic costs of energy supply are taken into account. In addition, legal and politico-economic constraints need to be considered. Against this background, we identify priorities for fostering the European dimension of the Member States’ energy policies, such as the coordination of grid extensions and capacity markets.     

Abschätzung des Potenzials der Schweizer Speicherseen zur Lastdeckung bei Importrestriktionen

Switzerland possesses with its hydro reservoirs a considerable amount of energy storage capacity. One would therefore assume that the country is well protected against power shortage situations in continental Europe. In the last two winters, however, authorities and system operators warned of possible threats to security of supply. Power producers were accused in the media of emptying the lakes too early for the sake of short-term profits. Politicians suggested to use the reservoir lakes as strategic reserves for the potential case of import restrictions. The current piece of work simulates the aggregated storage production in Switzerland based on publicly available data under various assumptions on the availability of power plants and imports. It comes to the conclusion that, over the last few years, the energy reserves in Swiss reservoir lakes would have been sufficient to cover domestic electricity demand in the absence of imports for at least one month. However, considerable changes in the use of hydro storage facilities would be necessary in future to ensure the same level of protection when nuclear production is phased out. The economic loss due to such an intervention may quickly rise to several dozen million Swiss francs.     

Kurzfrist-Lastprognose für die Day-Ahead- und Intraday-Stromnachfrage bei sich systematisch ändernden Lasten

Load forecasts are used in various fields of the German energy economic to plan and to optimize the schedule of the power generation or the purchase of power from the markets based on the results of the forecasts. Therefor accurate load forecasts are necessary. But many load forecasting models reach their limits when dealing with systematic changes in the profile of the energy demand, since the model is usually calibrated by historic data so the relation between the load and the input parameters are estimated. Due to changes in the load profile the load level is moving to another level compared to the historic one. While the forecasting model is still calibrated on the old level, this can lead to higher forecasting errors and these can in turn have negative consequences on the following optimization steps. That is why a methodological approach is presented so that the forecasting model is able to adapt a systematic change in the load profile. Therefor the presented approach is at first applied to a case of application, before it is applied to two more extreme variations of the load profile to identify possible limits of the presented approach.     

Versorgungsqualit?t in der leitungsgebundenen Gasversorgung

The incentive regulation ordinance (Anreizregulierungsverordnung (ARegV)) stipulates the implementation of a quality regulation scheme for the second regulatory period gas (2013?C2018). This raises the issue how to specify, define and stimulate quality specifically for gas transportation and distribution. According to §§18?C20 ARegV, the dimensions ??reliability?? and ??network capacity?? need to be incorporated. Due to the lack of tangibility of quality in the gas sector, the issue of quality turns out to be much more complex than in the electricity sector where quality or??more specifically??reliability is mainly associated with the premise ??keeping the lights on??. In order to establish a first idea of the current situation in the area of quality in grid-bound gas supply, WIK conducted expert interviews with different stakeholders from industry and science. Following this first step, a workshop took place to present the results from the survey and to further discuss the main issues. Overall, it turned out from the discussion that the definition and differentiation of the different quality dimensions is very complex due to the heterogeneous views of the stakeholders on priorities and incentives. Two different attitudes towards the regulation of the quality dimension reliability emerged in the interviews. One part of the group advocated the implementation of a corresponding q-element in the regulatory formula, whereas the other part preferred a quality monitoring without regulatory effects. Overall, the interviews and the workshop served its purpose in collecting the different opinions of the stakeholders. Based on these results, the discussion can be deepened. To approach the topic, it will be shown how the regulators in the Netherlands and Hungary converted the rarely practiced quality regulation into practice.     

Optimierte Integration der Elektromobilität in das Stromversorgungssystem bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien

Electric mobility will play a key role for the transformation of the energy supply in Germany [the “Energiewende”]. A successful market development of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles and a full fleet penetration in the long-term are the most efficient and effective measure for integrating large amounts of renewable energy into the transport sector and for reaching the efficiency targets. These new electricity consumers in the supply system will cause additional electricity loads strongly dependent on the mobility needs of the vehicle users. A controlled battery charging is able to avoid new peak demands and to increase the efficiency of the power generation system by using excess power. By scenario analysis, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and the Institute for High Voltage Technology of the RWTH Aachen investigated a possible successful development path of electric mobility in Germany and its integration into and interaction with the future power supply system. From both perspectives—the one of the total supply system as well as the other of local distribution grids—the results show promising potentials but also limits.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Ver?nderungen in der europ?ischen Finanzmarktregulierung k?nnten zur Anwendung der Basler Eigenkapitalrichtlinien auf den Energiehandel f��hren

In its consultation paper regarding the revision of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) from December 2010, the European Commission is considering to remove the current exemption for energy and commodity trading companies fully or at least to narrow the exemptions down. In this case the regulatory framework which is currently only in place for banks and financial companies could become effective for those companies. Because of the potentially significant consequences, it is reasonable for energy companies which have trading activities, to reflect the potential requirements even today. This article discusses the potential changes in the regulation and describes the consequences as well as potential areas of challenges in the application of banking regulation in energy trading.     

Neue Anforderungen an optimierende Energiesystemmodelle für die Kraftwerkseinsatz- und Zubauplanung bei begrenzten Netzkapazitäten

Recent changes in energy economic frameworks conditions lead to new requirements for energy systems models. Particularly in Germany, structural and locational changes in the power plant sector can be observed. Above all, this is due to the liberalisation process entailing the legal unbundling of system operators and generation companies as well as to the ambitious aims for the extension of wind energy. Consequently, modelling energy systems as single node systems, in which network constraints are neglected, can lead to suboptimal results. Most energy systems models offer the possibility to limit interregional energy exchange capacities. However, these so-called transhipment models normally neglect the actual load flows. Yet, there are several possibilities to adequately consider the characteristics of power transmission. In this paper, the most popular approaches, which are used in particular technical applications, such as the AC- (Alternating Current), the DC- (Direct Current) and the PTDF- (Power Transfer Distribution Factors) approach are introduced and discussed with respect to their application in energy systems models. In addition, first experiences with their implementations are presented.     

Handel mit Grünstromzertifikaten bei Existenz von Emissionszielen: Gewinner und Verlierer in der EU

Within the development goal for the use of renewable energies in the EU, after the publishing of the directive proposal from the European Commission on January 23, an intensive discussion is taking place as to if and how the trade of green electricity certificates should occur. A motion from the opposition in the Bundestag explicitly asks to favour the proposal. Recently the opinion of the EU parliament was submitted that proposes numerous changes. The present article leaves the discussion of details about the possible organization of such a system and analyses the impacts of a green electricity certificate trade with emission targets on state level. It is shown that with the currently discussed conditions the Member States have few incentives to buy green electricity certificates as the overall costs to fulfil the emission and green electricity targets could rise. The national fulfilment of green electricity targets could therefore be cheaper in an overall view. However, it is unclear if such plans are compatible with the rules of the EU internal market. Therefore there could be “forced losers” among EU member states.     

„Collaborative Governance“ – ein neues Konzept für die Regulierung der europäischen Strom- und Gasmärkte?

Current British and American publications about the liberalization of electricity and gas markets demand a paradigm shift in the regulation of energy networks. These publications can be subsumed under the scientific debate about “collaborative governance” in the USA. They call for an integration of network users and consumers into the regulatory process. Their philosophy resembles the philosophy of the negotiated third party access in Germany from 1998 till 2005. Their regulatory strategy might be more effective than the actual European “command and control” strategy in establishing competitive energy markets. This article examines and evaluates these publications and their regulatory strategy.     

Stromspeicher für die „Energiewende“ – eine akteursbasierte Analyse der zusätzlichen Speicherkosten

Political targets for implementing the German “energy turnaround” aiming at the ambitious extension of renewable energies to generate electricity. However, a majority of the renewable supply is provided by intermittent sources, e.g. wind and solar power. For balancing the increasing supply fluctuations additional storage options are claimed beside of an enforced grid infrastructure and a more flexible demand side. Despite of the political guidelines the economics of additional flexibility measures has to be considered. For this paper we analyse the costs of large scale stationary battery storages to be operated in wholesale markets and transmission grid level. By deriving a key figure based on a life-cycle cost approach, we are able to evaluate the additional costs of electricity of selected battery technologies (lead-acid, lithium ion, sodium sulphur, redox-flow). Moreover, current and valid parameters of the cost analysis are received by scientific and industrial stakeholders of battery systems via online survey and face-to-face interviews. According to the stakeholder estimation a nationwide operation of stationary battery storages will be established at wholesale and transmission grid level until the year 2030. The life-cycle cost analysis, which also includes estimated future cost reductions, shows that lead-acid batteries remain the cost-efficient technology, assuming about 100 storage cycles p.a. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of increasing annual storage cycles as well as the achievable cost reduction by economies-of-scales of the power unit of the storage system.     

Determinanten der Strom-und Gaspreisentwicklung in Deutschland — Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme für die Jahre 1998 bis 2007

The price worthy supply of energy is an indispensable requirement for growth and employment in highly industrialized countries as Germany. For energy intensive production processes — with limited opportunities to accomplish efficiency gains or substitute fuel — energy prices and costs are important determinants for competitiveness. But the other manufacturing sectors and households too, are affected by these high energy costs respectively expenditures, which result in real production losses or correspondingly in cutting back expenditures for non-energetic consumer goods. In view of the strongly increased level of energy prices — the price for crude oil hit the historic peak of $121 per barrel in May 2008 — especially grid bound energy sources as electricity and gas are in focus of the public. A recent study of the EEFA research institute illustrates the determinants of the development of electricity and gas prices in Germany from 1998 to 2007.     

Energiewende und Übertragungsnetzausbau: Sind Erdkabel ein Instrument zur Steigerung der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz des Leitungsbaus? Eine empirische Untersuchung auf Basis der Kontingenten Bewertungsmethode

Transmission network development has led to protests throughout Germany. Many studies present underground cables as a means to increase public agreement to transmission line construction and network development. This paper verifies this thesis analyzing the willingness-to-pay of private households for underground cable employment, which allows for a distinct analysis of strategic behavior and opportunity costs that is omitted in classic questionnaire designs. The results of a contingent valuation study conducted in November and December 2012 in four regions of Germany, which are affected by transmission line development in different ways, are presented. At first glance, an analysis of 1.003 household responses confirms common findings with a majority of households favoring underground cables (about 60 %), albeit preferences vary strongly between sample regions. Willingness-to-pay, however, relativizes this result. A near share of 50 % of households voting for underground cables is not willing to accept an increase in electricity prices to finance respective projects (free riders). The fact that positive willingness-to-pay does not correlate positively with increasing lengths of underground cables in 60 % of cases underlines that underground cables are not supported unconditionally. All-in-all, a flat public approval of underground cable technology cannot be presumed based on WTP-evaluation. Preferences about underground cables and corresponding WTP are explained with demographic characteristics and attitudes using regression models. Fundamental thoughts on energy- and environmental policies do not serve to explain responses. Instead, regional factors and subjective opinions on how to finance such kind of infrastructure measures influence preferences for underground cables.     

Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

Energiewende: Alles eine Frage der Partizipation? Governance-Herausforderungen zwischen Zentralität und Dezentralität

The interaction of centralised and decentralised elements is not only a challenge for the technical und functional implementation of the energy transition, but also for the political and social assignment of developing adequate governance strategies for future energy systems. While “participation” is of capital importance for all governance approaches mediating centralising and decentralising trends, it is far from clear, how participation is to be realized in order to promote energy transition and avoiding pitfalls and flaws of participative decision making processes. Against the backdrop of a multi-dimensional understanding of “participation” comprising procedural, factual, legitimatory and meta-reflective functions, the paper considers the tense relations of participation and efficiency, legitimacy and professionalized expertise, thereby identifying structural challenges for participation in democratic societies. Finally, some suggestions are made, how the governance of the energy transition can be shaped in the future.     

来宾兴宾供电局:深化改革谋新篇 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 精益求精促发展

正2018年,来宾兴宾供电局党委以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为一切工作的统领,深入落实新时代党的建设总要求,推进党建与生产经营工作血肉相连、浑然一体。安全生产方面大力构建本质安全型企业,深化精益管控,初步建成"大安全"监督管理格局。不断加强线路设备运维,开展10千伏线路综合整治,大大提升了供电可靠性。成功应对台风"山竹"应急防御及支援北流地区电力抢修任务,圆满完成自治区成立60周年等保供电工作,得到上级单位及来宾市人民政府高度肯定,被广西电网公司评为新