Book-to-market and size effects: compensations for risks or outcomes of market inefficiencies?

We employ the optimal orthogonal portfolio approach to investigate if the size and book-to-market effects in US data are related to risk factors beside the market risk. This method enables us to estimate the upper limit of the risk premium, due to observed as well as all possible unobserved factors, which can be derived from a linear asset pricing model. As a corollary, it is possible to divide the observed average asset return into three parts: one explained by the market factor, one due to the unobserved factors, and finally the non-risk-based (NRB) component. Our empirical results confirm the existence of latent risk factors, which cannot be captured by the market index. In particular, the size effect is related to some other background risk factors than the market portfolio, but a large part of observed book-to-market effect has a NRB explanation.     

Is liquidity the missing link?

Durand et al. (2006a ) argue that the Australian market is both internationally integrated and domestically segmented. They find that the US‐based three‐factor model captures returns of the largest stocks in Australia (evidence of international integration), but that it is unable to account for the returns of the smallest stocks (evidence of domestic segmentation). This study resolves the puzzle left by Durand et al. (2006a) . Incorporating a liquidity factor provides the missing link in their analysis: it results in a model that permits both the international integration of the largest stocks and the model can account for the returns of the smallest stocks. Our analysis highlights the important role of liquidity in Australian asset pricing.     

Extending the capital asset pricing model: the reward beta approach

This paper offers an alternative method for estimating expected returns. The proposed reward beta approach performs well empirically and is based on asset pricing theory. The empirical section compares this approach with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama–French three‐factor model. In out‐of‐sample testing, both the CAPM and the three‐factor model are rejected. In contrast, the reward beta approach easily passes the same test. In robustness checks, the reward beta approach consistently outperforms both the CAPM and the three‐factor model.     

The Three-Factor Model and Size and Value Premiums in China’s Stock Market

Using monthly data from China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) A-share market between 2005 and 2012, this article performs an empirical study on the applicability of the three-factor model to China’s stock market. After testing twenty-five size-BE/ME stock portfolios and four stock sector portfolios, we found that the three-factor model, adjusted for the unique features of China’s stock market, generally fits the SSE A-share market well. The results show that size and value premiums are significant in China’s stock market, although there exist modest differences among industrial sectors. In addition, our empirical results are robust to factor sorting and construction methods.     

The other side of value: The gross profitability premium

Profitability, measured by gross profits-to-assets, has roughly the same power as book-to-market predicting the cross section of average returns. Profitable firms generate significantly higher returns than unprofitable firms, despite having significantly higher valuation ratios. Controlling for profitability also dramatically increases the performance of value strategies, especially among the largest, most liquid stocks. These results are difficult to reconcile with popular explanations of the value premium, as profitable firms are less prone to distress, have longer cash flow durations, and have lower levels of operating leverage. Controlling for gross profitability explains most earnings related anomalies and a wide range of seemingly unrelated profitable trading strategies.     

Liquidity biases in asset pricing tests

Microstructure noise in security prices biases the results of empirical asset pricing specifications, particularly when security-level explanatory variables are cross-sectionally correlated with the amount of noise. We focus on tests of whether measures of illiquidity, which are likely to be correlated with the noise, are priced in the cross-section of stock returns, and show a significant upward bias in estimated return premiums for an array of illiquidity measures in Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) monthly return data. The upward bias is larger when illiquid securities are included in the sample, but persists even for NYSE/Amex stocks after decimalization. We introduce a methodological correction to eliminate the biases that simply involves weighted least squares (WLS) rather than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, and find evidence of smaller, but still significant, return premiums for illiquidity after implementing the correction.     

The risk premium and long-run global imbalances

This study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances. We construct a stochastic growth multi-country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade. First, the degree of US equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world. Second, a fraction of households in each country maintains a fixed share of equity in its portfolios. In our calibrated model, which matches the US net foreign asset position and the equity premium, the average US household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in risky assets abroad and issuing risk-free assets. As a result, the US is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country. The long-run average trade deficit in our model accounts for 50% of the observed US trade deficit.     

The intertemporal relationship between market return and variance: an Australian perspective

In this paper we investigate the intertemporal relationship between the market risk premium and its conditional variance in an Australian setting. Using a bivariate EGARCH‐M model combined with the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) framework as proposed by Engle (2000), we find evidence of a positive relationship between the market risk premium and its variance and evidence of two distinct interest rate effects. Furthermore, while the bond market's own variance is not priced by investors, we find that the covariance between equity and bond markets is a significant risk factor that is priced in the market.     

人民币利率互换期权及其定价模型探析

自2005年推出债券远期以来,我国银行间利率衍生品市场在交易产品创新、参与主体培育和制度建设等方面取得了较大的发展。在利率市场化改革深人推进、市场利率波动性加大的背景下,进一步推进利率衍生品创新,有利于完善产品系列,更好满足市场主体管理利率风险的需求。文章介绍了利率互换期权的作用及定价模型,以期为同业开展该产品运用及定价方式研究提供参考。     

Modeling Asset Premiums and the Riskfree Rate in General Equilibrium CCAPM

We elaborate on the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) to reveal a set of underlying forces that determine asset returns. We use generalized preferences, allow for labor-leisure choice, a broad asset portfolio, and holding international claims. A calibration of the model with US data learns that excess stock and bond returns can be replicated. At the same time, however, the riskfree interest rate generally appears to be mispriced, consistent with Weil (1989). Additional results show that in general two optimal values of the intertemporal substitution parameter correspond with a specified coefficient of risk aversion. Tests that assess the dynamic properties of the model yield mixed results, but are most favorable when home bias is allowed.     

Leveraged Lévy processes as models for stock prices

Adopting a constant elasticity of variance formulation in the context of a general Lévy process as the driving uncertainty we show that the presence of the leverage effect? ?One explanation of the documented negative relation between market volatilities and the level of asset prices (the ‘smile’ or ‘skew’), we term the ‘leverage effect’, argues that this negative relation reflects greater risk taking by the management, induced by a fall in the asset price, with a view of maximizing the option value of equity shareholders. in this form has the implication that asset price processes satisfy a scaling hypothesis. We develop forward partial integro-differential equations under a general Markovian setup, and show in two examples (both continuous and pure-jump Lévy) how to use them for option pricing when stock prices follow our leveraged Lévy processes. Using calibrated models we then show an example of simulation-based pricing and report on the adequacy of using leveraged Lévy models to value equity structured products.