Subsidies for renewable energies in the presence of learning effects and market power

We study the impact of learning by doing, learning spill-overs, and imperfect competition in a model with two types of electricity producers, an oligopolistic sector of polluting fossil-fuel utilities and a competitive fringe of non-polluting generators of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). Furthermore we consider an upstream industry of RES-E equipment producers engaged in learning by doing. We show that a first-best policy requires two instruments, a tax in the fossil-fuel sector and an output subsidy for RES-E equipment producers. We then study second-best-optimal feed-in tariffs that are paid to the generators of RES-E. By means of simulations we calculate the welfare loss of a second-best-optimal feed-in-tariff policy and analyze how market structure impacts on second-best-optimal feed-in tariffs.     

Using ROC techniques to measure the effectiveness of foreign exchange market interventions

Using as an example data on official Japanese interventions in the yen/dollar market, I show that techniques developed to analyse relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be useful to study the forecasting value and effectiveness of interventions.     

The determinants and labour market effects of lifelong learning

Despite the policy importance of lifelong learning, there is very little hard evidence from the UK on (a) who undertakes lifelong learning and why, and (b) the economic benefits of lifelong learning. This paper uses a rich longitudinal panel data set to look at key factors that determine whether someone undertakes lifelong learning and then models the effect of the different qualifications acquired via lifelong learning on individuals’ economic outcomes, namely wages and the likelihood of being employed. Those who left school with O-level qualifications or above were much more likely to undertake lifelong learning. Undertaking one episode of lifelong learning also increased the probability of undertaking more lifelong learning. We found little evidence of positive wage effects from lifelong learning. However, males who left school with only low-level qualifications do earn substantially more if they undertake a degree via lifelong learning. We also found important positive employment effects from lifelong learning.     

Machine learning versus econometrics: prediction of box office

In this note, we contrast prediction performance of nine econometric and machine learning methods, including a new hybrid method combining model averaging and machine learning, using data from the film industry and social media. The results suggest that machine learning methods have an advantage in addressing short-run noise, whereas traditional econometric methods are better at capturing long-run trend. In addition, once sample heterogeneity is controlled, the new hybrid method tends to strike a right balance in dealing with both noise and trend, leading to superior prediction efficiency.     

Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques

There has accumulated strong evidence in the literature that market beta (β) is time varying. This paper contributes to the literature by studying how to best model the time varying beta for REITs. We include several commonly used methods and evaluate their performances in terms of in-sample beta estimates and out-of-sample beta forecasts. We apply these methods to U.S. equity REITs. Our results overwhelmingly suggest that the state space model is the best performer. Such a conclusion is supported by different evaluation criteria and robust to different sample splitting. Our findings have direct financial implications. The forecasted betas (preferably through the state space model) can be used in many applications such as estimating the cost of capital for the purpose of capital budgeting involving REITs, identifying equity REIT mispricing, evaluating the performance of managed REIT portfolios, etc.     

高等院校绩效评价指标体系构建的思路

高校的绩效主要体现在教学、科研和社会服务过程中的效率和效益，评价指标体系包括结构绩效、事业绩效、科研绩效、财务绩效，评价方法可采用主成分分析法、平衡计分卡法等定量分析法。     

Enhancing innovation through learning: the roles of market orientation and interorganisational knowledge stores

Drawing on the organisational learning theory, this study regards market orientation as a market-based learning and seeks to advance insight into how market orientation and interorganisational knowledge stores together affect different types of innovation. Our findings from a sample of 246 manufacturing firms provide supporting evidence for the positive effect of market orientation on both explorative and exploitative innovation. The effect of market orientation on innovation gets amplified when firms possess large amount of interorganisational knowledge, demonstrating the synergistic effect produced by different types of learning which is less known. This study, therefore, sheds light on the under-researched area of literature surrounding the interaction between different learning activities and the roles of knowledge from different sources on firm innovation.     

Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)

We estimate a four variable structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary economies in order to evaluate the links between the instruments of monetary policy and inflation outcomes. We find that the linkages between the interest rates and price levels are weak. However, the exchange rate constitutes the most important channel of monetary policy transmission for Poland and Hungary. For the Czech Republic, the link between interest rate rise and price level is rather indirect.     

处在变革当中的韩国劳务市场

上世纪90年代以前,韩国不仅是世界上实力雄厚的国际工程承包商的国家,而且也是最大的劳务输出国之一。然而,随着经济的发展,韩国目前实际上已由劳务输出国成为部分行业劳动力短缺的国家。劳动力缺失严重已经成为困扰韩国中小企业发展的瓶颈据韩国统计厅公布的一份资料显示:2002     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

Cointegration for market forecast in the Spanish stock market

This study is interested in empirically testing the existence of a long-run relationship between the Spanish stock market and its fundamentals, and in checking to which extent this relationship helps in forecasting. This study is concerned with the behaviour of the aggregate Madrid Stock Exchange in a macroeconomic context. It also identifies as macroeconomic fundamentals: industrial production as a proxy for real activity, inflation and interest rates. This study tests the existence of cointegration by Johansen's procedure. The long-run relationships among the variables implied by the existence of cointegration do not allow inference to the interrelations among the variables. To get some insight into the short-run interactions among the variables, an impulse response analysis was performed. This study compares the forecasting ability of its model with respect to alternative multivariate specifications in terms of RMSE. Also measured is the value of the forecast for the financial agents assessing the extent to which it helps improve asset allocation.     

Re-evaluation of Welfare Changes during the Transition in Poland

The costs of shortages/rationing are not captured by standard consumer price indices. Thus the change in real GDP per capita is an over-estimate of welfare losses in transition economies. In this study virtual prices are used to calculate new cost of living indices, making it possible to construct more accurate pre-reform and post-reform welfare comparisons. The results for Poland using virtual prices show 62-84% decline in welfare over the transition 1987-92. This welfare loss is approximately one-third of the value obtained using actual prices.     

Labour market reform and the macroeconomic efficiency of the labour market in Australia

This paper assesses the effects of a decade and a half of labourmarket reform in Australia on labour market flexibility at themacroeconomic level. Increased labour market flexibility isinterpreted as reduced structural unemployment and enhancedefficiency of matching. We use shifts in the Beveridge Curveas a measure of changes in labour market efficiency (followingSolow, R., What is labour-market flexibility? What is it goodfor?, Keynes Lecture, British Academy, London, December, 1997).Time series analysis of unemployment, vacancies and other relevantvariables strongly suggests that changes in the efficiency oflabour market matching over the period reflect the cyclicaleffects of hysteresis rather than the effects of labour marketreform.     

Privatization of state-owned enterprises in Poland

The transition from centrally planned to market economies in Eastern Europe has become a field of debate in economic literature since the late 1980s. Privatization plays a very important role because it is also a sensitive political problem. Privatization is a key element of the several reform packages that are being applied in Poland. This paper examines the different ways that small- and medium-sized enterprises were privatized from 1990 to 1995 using statistical data of the Ministry of Privatization [1995]. Analyzed enterprises are presented by the following group of projects. Capital privatization, direct foreign investment, joint stock companies awaiting privatization, and other methods of privatization are connected with the special program designed for firms with bad financial standing.     

Financial distress of companies in Poland

The study examines main determinants of financial distress of companies in Poland during the recent transformation period. Data compose a sample of 1995–97 annual financial statements of 200 unlisted companies in Poland. Degree of financial distress is expressed either by the binomial variable or by the trinomial ordered variable. The attempted models (binomial and trinomial logit) explain the distress variable for 1997 by the financial indicators evaluated on the basis of financial statements from previous years. The results are sensitive to the choice of explanatory variables in the models. The forecast accuracy of the estimated models lies in the range of 80–90 percent. In the second half of the 1990's, the financial condition of companies in Poland was determined by the degree of liquidity, profitability, and the financial leverage variables.