Stabilization, adjustment, and the poor

This paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity-oriented low-income country. Tanzania. After looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies, this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies, macroeconomic restraint, and strategic policy change. The author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of Tanzania with external shock, efforts at stabilization, and relations with the IMF.In conclusion, the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries' experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short- to medium-term policy responses. However, he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low-income countries, there must be a presumption that, other things being equal (including the distribution of income), the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into “absolute poverty” will be greater than in middle-income countries. The international community should provide external finance to aid these low-income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest.     

The Increasing Selectivity of Foreign Aid, 1984–2003

The Monterrey Consensus includes the idea that foreign aid is more effective when targeted to countries with sound institutions. We examine the extent to which foreign aid, bilateral and multilateral, is “selective” in terms of democracy and property rights/rule of law. We find that multilateral assistance is more selective than bilateral aid in targeting countries with good rule of law. “Selectivity” is a new phenomenon. During 1984–89, both bilateral and multilateral aid had significant negative relationships with rule of law; by 2000–03 this had shifted to a significant positive relationship for multilateral aid, and a positive but statistically insignificant relationship for bilateral aid.     

What role for IMF surveillance?

This paper reviews two recent reports on the international monetary system, one by the Group of 10 (industrial countries) and the other by the Group of 24 (developing countries). It contrasts their recommendations for improving policy surveillance by the International Monetary Fund. Its own recommendations include the strengthening of “enhanced surveillance” to make it more formal without making it more onerous, the introduction of “shadow conditionality” to give guidance to governments about their eligibility to draw on the Fund, and the further development of multilateral surveillance along lines proposed at the Tokyo Summit. It would broaden that process, however, by shifting the focus from policy compatibility, defined with reference to exchange-rate behavior, to policy quality, defined with reference to the behavior of global aggregates such as the growth rate of world trade. The paper examines the use of target zones to manage exchange rates and argues that it would not weaken the case for multilateral surveillance, which is needed not only in setting the zones but also to make sure that policies adopted by participating countries do not impart an inflationary or deflationary bias to the international economy.     

Reverse imports, foreign direct investment and exchange rates

This paper investigates linkages among “reverse imports”, foreign direct investment and exchange rates. As an example, we have in mind the competition in the Japanese market of a Japanese multinational firm and a Chinese domestic firm. Products are differentiated based on Japanese consumers’ brand name recognition. The model shows that yen appreciation leads to an increase in Japanese production in China and “reverse imports” and a decrease in Japanese domestic production. Due to the barriers in brand name, the exports of the Chinese firm could fall, because the increase of reverse imports may erode the market share of the Chinese firm, even though total exports from China increase. Further, we find that yen appreciation may improve the profits of the Japanese firm and welfare in Japan under reverse imports, against conventional wisdom. The predictions of the model fit well with the actual numbers and shed light on the current debate on the Chinese currency.     

On ‘the political economy of stabilization’

Joan Nelson (1984) includes Sri Lanka in the period 1977–1982 in a series of case studies of the factors affecting the political acceptability of stabilization and adjustment programs. This is misleading because, unlike the other countries dealt with, Sri Lanka was not faced with an economic crisis when it accepted large multilateral loans under policy conditionality. In fact, the economic policies pursued in Sri Lanka after 1977 reflect the interests and political program of the domestic capitalist class. The existence of such a class introduces dimensions to the analysis of the politics of adjustment not dealt with in Nelson's framework.     

Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

Are Environmental Social Movements Socially Exclusive? An Historical Study from Thailand

Environmental social movements in developing countries are often portrayed as democratizing but may contain important social divisions. This paper presents a new methodology to analyze the social composition and underlying political messages of movements. Nearly 5 000 newspaper reports during 1968–2000 in Thailand are analyzed to indicate the participation of middle and lower classes, and their association with “green” (conservationist) and “red-green” (livelihoods-oriented) environmental values. Results show middle-class “green” activism has dominated forests activism, but lower-class “red-green” activism has grown for forests and pollution. Newspapers, however, portray all environmentalism as “democratization,” suggesting that the possible exclusiveness of some environmental norms is unacknowledged.     

Adjustment with a human face: Still relevant or overtaken by events?

This paper describes the extent to which the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” have been accepted. The concept has been accepted in principle, but large gaps remain in actual implementation. Some policy recommendations, such as the need for compensatory programs, have been more fully accepted and implemented than others, such as the need to stimulate productivity by poor households and to involve different social groups in policy making. The paper concludes that adjustment policies should be part of a long-term development strategy which emphasizes structural changes for countries to grow out of structural poverty. As such, the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” still remain valid, albeit with changes in emphasis on their various components.     

Global Retail Chains and Poor Farmers: Evidence from Madagascar

Global retail companies (“supermarkets”) have an increasing influence on developing countries, through foreign investments and/or through the imposition of their private standards. The impact on developing countries and poverty is often assessed as negative. In this paper we show the opposite, based on an analysis of primary data collected to measure the impact of supermarkets on small contract farmers in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost 10,000 farmers in the Highlands of Madagascar produce vegetables for supermarkets in Europe. In this global supply chain, small farmers’ micro-contracts are combined with intensive farm assistance and supervision programs to fulfill complex quality requirements and phyto-sanitary standards of supermarkets. Small farmers that participate in these contracts have higher welfare, more income stability and shorter lean periods. We also find significant effects on improved technology adoption, better resource management and spillovers on the productivity of the staple crop rice. The small but emerging modern retail sector in Madagascar does not (yet) deliver these benefits as they do not (yet) request the same high standards for their supplies.     

Observations on the conditionality of international financial institutions

Conditionality, the terms imposed by international financial institutions on borrowing countries, has been regarded by critics as being too inflexible and focussing too narrowly on demand forces and monetary policy instruments. The major intent of the paper, however, is to shift the discussion of conditionality to its functions in relation to private international lending. Conditionality provides information to lenders and certification of borrowers which, by decreasing uncertainty, may increase the quantities and reduce the costs of private lending. Yet restrictions on total and/or foreign credit may also reduce competition. These are examples of neglected issues of conditionality which deserve more attention.     

Attracting foreign direct investment: Has China reached its potential?

China receives a huge inflow of foreign direct investment in absolute dollars. But China is huge, and large countries normally receive a large amount of foreign investment. Does China receive a fair share of the world's investment after controlling for its vast size and other factors? What is China's potential to attract more investment? This paper investigates these questions by using a newly available data set that covers over a hundred recipient countries and five major source countries. Relative to an “average” host country, China appears to receive too little foreign investment from the four major source countries (U.S., Germany, France, and U.K.), although it may receive an adequate share of outward Japanese investment.     

Microcredit in Prefamine Ireland

Hundreds of independent, local, quasi-charitable microcredit societies, or “loan funds,” were lending to as many as 20% of Irish households in the mid-19th century. Their goal was to relieve poverty by providing credit to the “industrious poor” at competitive interest rates without public funding. They successfully mitigated informational, moral hazard, and enforcement problems, and operated at a surplus in a market where intermediation by the banks seems not to have been profitable. Loan fund activity offers new insights into capital formation in the 19th-century Irish economy and challenges traditional notions regarding the economic activities of the Irish poor. They are also relevant for economists studying current microcredit initiatives.     

How Big is the Crowding-Out Effect of User Fees in the Rural Areas of Ethiopia? Implications for Equity and Resources Mobilization

Using a nested multinomial logit model, this study investigates the demand “reduction” and “diversion” effects of user fees in rural areas of Ethiopia. The results reveal that an increase in user fees of public clinics, which are the most widely used alternative, can have a significant demand reduction effect on the poorest of the poor. This implies that despite cost recovery has been advocated as an alternative means of health care financing in most of the developing world, increasing user fees may drive the poorest segment of the population out of the health care market unless some protective measures are taken.     

Patterns of industrialization and the flying geese model: the case of electronics in East Asia

We use the “flying geese” framework to study the change in the geography of comparative advantages in the electronics sector in East Asia, China and the USA. Doubts have been raised about the capacity of the “flying geese” model to interpret the most recent phases of Asian development, in particular as far as progress in the electronics sector is concerned. This paper takes issue against these negative conclusions on both theoretical and empirical grounds. On the theoretical side, the paper takes up the formulation proposed by Kaname Akamatsu, arguing that some of the critical observations raised against the model look to a distorted and simplified version of Akamatsu's original theory. Analyzing the behavior of the “revealed comparative advantage index” per products and area, it is concluded that the “flying geese model” is compatible with manifold industrial development models, increasing interdependence in an integrated area which crucially also includes the US, and that asymmetries and hierarchical order persist across the countries.     

Towards a ‘new normal’ growth strategy: China in comparative perspective

China’s move towards a new normal has been motivated by domestic factors and accelerated by the decline in export opportunities to developed countries. This decline, combined with the knock-on effects of China’s growth adjustments, is disrupting the favourable external environment that made developing countries’ export-led development strategies viable. This paper concentrates on a rebalancing of developing countries’ growth strategies towards a greater weight of household consumption as a potential alternative and discusses three challenges – market size, domestic purchasing power and balance-of-payments constraints. Concentrating on the latter, it analyses changes in sectoral compositions of consumer demand and patterns of international trade. Results point to the risk that a shift in growth strategy causes an import surge. The paper’s findings indicate the scope and speed of required product innovation that would prevent a rebalancing of growth strategies towards a greater role of consumption from running into balance-of-payments constraints.     

Economic studies of taxation in Japan: The case of personal income taxes

We argue that tax policy in Japan is on a shaky empirical ground. First, until recently, no serious attempts had been made to estimate labour responses to taxation, especially with respect to prime-age male workers. Second, while there is some stock of empirical analysis on labour supply response of female workers, few studies have appropriately allowed for the budget constraint structure implied by the tax system. Third, as a corollary, there is not a reliable stock of empirical estimates to quantify the frequently employed concepts of “disincentives to work” or “distortion.” Given this state of the literature, we introduce our estimates, and calculate the degree of distortion using the concept of the marginal cost of public funds.     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

Struggling with Sustainability—A Comparative Framework for Evaluating Sustainable Development Programs

“Sustainability” is an inherently dynamic, indefinite and contested concept. “Sustainable development” must, therefore, be seen as an unending process—defined not by fixed goals or the specific means of achieving them, but by an approach to creating change through continuous learning and adaptation. How, then, do we evaluate a development program’s contribution to such a process? This paper constructs a framework for evaluating sustainable rural development programs using both process- and outcome-oriented criteria, and demonstrates its application. The SANREM CRSP/SEA research and development program in The Philippines—including ICRAFs efforts to organize communities around agroforestry and environmental conservation—is assessed.     

The Washington Consensus: A post-mortem

After guiding development policies for nearly 20 years, the “Washington Consensus” lies in shambles. Although selected components remain relevant for development policies around the world, some specifics of the broader policy “package” and, more generally, the concept of a standardized package of policies applicable to all developing countries has clearly been discredited.Criticism has been directed at the assumed link from economic liberalization of international trade and financial flows to more rapid economic growth. Apart from a handful of developing countries, admittedly including some large and important ones, most of the world saw little of the promised economic benefit from widespread and on-going trade and financial liberalization, initially. Many countries actually regressed, when evaluated against broader socio-economic development goals, including income inequality. We conclude that differences in initial conditions (history, culture, geography and levels of industrial and institutional development) preclude any single development policy package from being universally effective.