The role of research in policy development: The creation of the IMF cereal import facility

This paper challenges the erroneous, yet growing, view that social science research has little impact upon public policymaking. The case example here is the research lending up to the creation of the cereal import facility at the International Monetary Fund. The study is divided into two parts: (1) an intellectual analysis of the major research work on the cereal facility; and (2) a political study of how this research work was picked up and translated into reality by policymakers. It concludes that social science research must be careful, timely and ‘translatable’ if it is to be effectively used by policymakers.     

Intellectual Property Rights in the Asian-Pacific Region: problems, patterns, and policy

This paper explores recent theory and evidence regarding increased protection of intellectual property rights (ZPRs) in Asia. Knowledge has significant public good aspects making optimal provision a problem of trading off universal access against adequate incentives for R&D. Given the ease of evasion of IPR relative to tariffs, attempts to push low and middleincome countries to higher levels of protection may be against their national interests. The Uruguay Round may encounter less than enthusiastic enforcement. Further efforts to refine IPR protection might usefully be focused on flexibility instead of harmonisation.     

Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.     

The problem of reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on primary product exports and economic policy alternatives

This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the high dependence of Russia’s socioeconomic development on the world market prices of hydrocarbon resources and their production volumes. The author analyzed the mechanisms underlying this dependency using a model of centrally planned economy without technical progress. The author shows that growth in raw materials production and prices leads to the “Dutch disease,” which is, hence, an economic growth paradox typical of open economies and having a resource-technological and structural character. The author’s conclusion is that welfare growth opportunities are underutilized under Dutch disease conditions in case of government restrictions on primary product exports aimed at conserving the trading sector. The case is made for increasing labor productivity in the Russian economy in order to overcome its dependence on the oil and gas exports.     

IMF Support and Inter-Regime Exchange Rate Volatility

It is widely agreed that when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates the increase in exchange rate volatility is not matched by an equivalent rise in the volatility of fundamentals. We argue and demonstrate that in inter-regime comparisons one has to account for ‘missing variables’ that compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed exchange rates. Previous studies have often used foreign exchange reserves, but without much success. We argue why reserves are not a reliable measure, while IMF credit support is. Our empirical analysis identifies IMF support as a crucial and significant compensating variable.     

国际货币基金组织份额与投票权改革

国际金融危机凸显出国际货币基金组织(IMF)份额与投票权机制的诸多弊端。在多次G20峰会的推动下,IMF份额改革不断稳步推进。G20首尔峰会正式确认发达国家向新兴市场和发展中国家转移超过6%的份额。这是IMF历史上一次最根本性的治理改革,有着多方面的国际政治经济背景。份额改革使中国坐上了IMF的第三把交椅,带来了新的机遇与挑战。     

Capital-market Liberalization, Globalization, and the IMF

One of the most controversial aspects of globalization is capital-marketliberalization—not so much the liberalization of rulesgoverning foreign direct investment, but those affecting short-termcapital flows, speculative hot capital that can come into andout of a country. In the 1980s and 1990s, the IMF and the USTreasury tried to push capital-market liberalization aroundthe world, encountering enormous opposition, not only from developingcountries, but from economists who were less enamoured of thedoctrines of free and unfettered markets, of market fundamentalism,that were at that time being preached by the international economicinstitutions. The economic crises of the late 1990s and earlyyears of the new millennium, which were partly, or even largely,attributable to capital-market liberalization, reinforced thosereservations. This paper takes as its point of departure a recentIMF paper, to provide insights both into how the IMF could havegone so wrong in its advocacy of capital-market liberalizationand into why capital-market liberalization has so often ledto increased economic instability, not to economic growth.     

我国现行解决“三农”问题政策的困境与出路

解决我国现阶段的“三农”问题需要提供大前提，确立大思路，运用新战略，采取新措施。 一、现行“三农”问题政策和措施的困境……     

The Mexican economy: Present situation,perspectives and alternatives

The paper begins by sketching the build up to the recent crisis of the Mexican economy. Then it examines the strategic alternatives which are open in the future. The author points out that the present situation is ‘fluid’ and that two extremely different strategic options are shaping up: one which could be called nationalist and with a populist orientation; and the other which would prefer simply to reformulate the previous model of growth. Finally, the short-term economic perspectives are analysed and some factors will be considered which may well be included in an economic strategy of a nationalist and populist orientation.     

加工贸易政策调整:政策信号与未来发展

近期有关加工贸易的政策调整相对比较频繁,这已引起了很多加工贸易企业的关注:政策调整信号如何理解?加工贸易未来的发展方向是什么?本文集中分析了加工贸易要不要发展,转型升级的障碍,以及未来政策调整的方向。本文认为,近期政策调整的信号可以概括为限制与发展,限制是为了更好的发展;无论是将加工贸易理解为保税监管的贸易形式,还是理解为国际生产分工的实现方式,当前阶段加工贸易发展的大格局不会改变。     

权力结构变迁下的IMF改革——基于制度改革的分析路径

IMF作为一种国际制度,其改革是权力结构变迁的合理性诉求,也是制度自身不断调整与效率提升的内在需求。在世界权力关系并未发生根本性转移的大背景下,IMF的改革在当下将仅表现为制度的不断调适而非完全被取代。     

20国集团呼吁IMF和世行改革

由全球领先的富裕国家和发展中国家组成的20国集团发出呼吁，要求对国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行（World Bank）进行改革，以改善其公司治理、战略和业务操作。