Estimating the value of political connections in China: Evidence from sudden deaths of politically connected independent directors

This paper estimates the value of political connections by examining stock price reactions to sudden deaths of retired government officials who were acting as independent directors of private firms in China from 2003 to 2012. Employing an event study, we find that, if a private firm loses political connections because of the sudden death of an independent director who was previously a government official, its stock price drops 3.61% on average within ten trading days. After the loss of political connections, we find that it is possible but infeasible for a private firm to reestablish political connections with the government in a short period of time. Moreover, the sudden death of a retired government official leads to a reduction in the economic benefits (e.g., bank loans, tax preference, and government subsidies) obtained by a private firm, which provides a reasonable explanation for the negative stock price reaction after losing political connections.     

MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THE PERPETUAL YOUTH MODEL

The overlapping‐generations model of Blanchard, based on a constant probability of death, is used to study the maximum level of government debt consistent with the existence of a steady state equilibrium. In both a small open and a closed economy it is shown that maximum sustainable debt robustly occurs where the consumption of individual households reaches zero, the limit of its feasible range. Taxation absorbs all of the household's labour income here. In a closed economy, at this point the real interest rate also hits a ‘ceiling’ given by a simple combination of preference parameters and the death probability.     

Ethnic segregation and the quality of government: the importance of regional diversity

It has recently been argued that the regional segregation of ethnic or linguistic groups leads to lower government quality and that this is partly due to the negative effect of segregation on inter-group trust. In this paper I show that the relationship between ethnic segregation, trust and government quality is mediated by another dimension of regional diversity namely, regional income disparities. Accounting for regional disparities reduces the estimated impact of segregation and trust on the quality of government and reduces the statistical robustness of ethnic segregation. The analysis highlights the usefulness of identifying other factors which may be driving regional diversity, beyond ethno-linguistic characteristics.     

THE POLITICS OF PRECOMMITMENT WITH ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY AND TRANSACTION COSTS

Despite the lack of legal channels through which binding commitments can be made by the government, economic and political factors enable it to affect future outcomes. In practice, large transaction costs are associated with any significant change of policy, and therefore the current government can adopt policies so that certain outcomes are more likely to be realized by its successor. In this paper it is argued that transaction costs combined with electoral uncertainty are likely to drive the current government to adopt a policy which is extreme relative to the preferences of the existing political parties. This policy is adopted in order to ensure that due to transaction costs, the future government will not depart radically from the most preferred policy of the current government. If the current policy is likely to affect the election outcome, then, in addition to the above considerations, the electorate attitudes would have to be taken into account by the government. Hence, the current government confronts two factors in choosing its policies: the behavior of the future government and the behavior of the electorate. The interplay between the two factors determines the choice of the current policy.     

政府参与创新有助于提高城市创新效率吗——基于国家创新型城市试点政策的实证检验

随着区域创新步入创新生态系统的多元层面,政府与经济主体交互共生对促进区域创新具有重要作用。以2008年首个国家创新试点城市深圳为例,借助合成控制法,基于2000-2019年中国226个地级市数据,构造与深圳尽可能相似的“合成深圳”。在此基础上,比较分析“真实深圳”与“合成深圳”的创新效率。研究发现,创新型城市试点政策对全要素生产率和技术进步具有显著正向作用,而对创新效率的影响则呈倒U型;政策实施前期,政策效应逐渐释放,创新效率显著提高,随着时间演化,由于政策时效、技术变革和需求转移等原因,政策红利逐渐减少,对创新效率的影响也降低,但尚未完全消失。     

Lame ducks and divided government: How voters control the unaccountable

Electoral institutions interact through the incentives they provide to policy makers and voters. In this paper divided government is interpreted as the reaction of voters to a systematic control problem. Voters realize that term-limited executives (“lame ducks”) cannot credibly commit to a moderate electoral platform due to missing reelection incentives. By dividing government control voters force a lame duck to compromise on policies with an opposing legislature. Based on data from the US states, I present evidence showing that the probability of divided government is about 8 to 10 percent higher when governors are lame ducks.     

The effects of government transfers on monthly cycles in drug abuse,hospitalization and mortality

This paper analyzes the monthly patterns of adverse outcomes due to the consumption of illegal drugs by recipients of government transfer payments. We find evidence that certain subpopulations on government cash aid significantly increase their consumption of drugs when their checks arrive at the beginning of the month, and as a result, experience adverse events including hospitalization and death. Using data from California, we find that the overall rate of drug-related hospital admissions increases abruptly at the beginning of the month, with admissions increasing 23% during the first five days of the month. We find that this cycle is driven largely by recipients of Supplemental Security Income (SSI). SSI recipients also experience an abrupt 22% increase in within hospital mortality after receiving their checks. These findings suggest that “full wallets” adversely affect some aid recipients, and that policymakers should explore alternate disbursement regimes such as a staggered disbursement schedule or in-kind support that have the potential to reduce the rate of adverse events.     

政府发展性支出、产业集聚与绿色能源效率

为了探索政府发展性支出在产业集聚影响能源效率过程中的边界,本文从理论和实证两个角度验证了政府发展性支出在产业集聚影响能源效率过程中的调节机制和门槛效应,研究发现:(1)理论上政府发展性支出在产业集聚影响能源效率过程中存在调节效应,伴随着政府发展性支出的不断增加,产业集聚对能源效率的影响呈倒"N"型作用路径。表明过低或过高的政府发展性支出都会导致产业集聚扭曲,不能发挥其应有的正外部性,进而抑制能源效率的改善,只有适度的政府发展性支出才能发挥产业集聚应有的绩效,有助于能源效率的提升;(2)利用中国2004—2017年268个地级市的城市面板数据,在规避内生性问题的基础上,通过静态面板交互效应模型,验证了政府发展性支出在产业集聚影响能源效率过程中存在调节效应的理论假说;(3)采用面板门槛模型,验证了产业集聚影响能源效率的过程中存在政府发展性支出的双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为0.2517和0.2946,对不同政府发展性支出水平进行分组计量回归,结果与理论分析中产业集聚对能源效率的影响呈倒"N"型路径相吻合。表明,过高或过低的政府发展性支出趋向于抑制能源效率的提升,适度的政府发展性支出有利于能源效率的改善。     

The Intergenerational Incidence of Government Spending*

This paper analyzes the effect of an increase in government spending on the welfare of different generations in a dynamic general equilibrium model. The paper shows that the intergenerational incidence of government spending on a public good is determined not only by the welfare effects due to the public good and to financing the good but also by a welfare effect due to intertemporal substitution between private consumption when government spending is increased. The degree of substitutability between private consumption and public spending is shown to be a key determinant of this incidence.     

地方政府补贴能够有效激励企业提高环境治理效率吗

本文修正了Dasgupta等（1998,2002）的污染物削减费用模型,采用辽宁省工业企业微观数据,分析地方政府补贴产生的环境治理激励作用,得到相应结论：（1）本文基于微观数据和修正的污染物削减费用模型,测算出辽宁省工业企业环境治理效率均值约为83%,分布近似于正态分布。（2）地方政府补贴并没有显著提升企业环境治理效率,却显著提升了企业环境治理效率提升的稳定性。本文认为地方政府补贴的主要作用在于资金补充效应和背书信号作用,在引导大量优质资源进入企业的基础上提升环境治理效率提升的稳定性,减少不确定因素。（3）地方政府补贴对不同类型所有制形式企业的环境治理稳定性影响差异性较大,内资企业获得补贴所产生的效率改善的稳定效应要远低于外资企业。综上所述,在缺乏相应监管的情况下,地方政府补贴很难产生显著的环境治理激励效果,但由于其信号的引导作用,对提高治理效率稳定性具有显著效果。     

Is the Government Failure Theory Still Relevant? A panel analysis using US state level data

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the robustness of the government failure theory. A core feature of the government failure theory is demand heterogeneity. Previous studies have brought into question the robustness of the government failure theory, due to inconsistent results concerning the explanatory power of demand heterogeneity. Therefore, in this paper we revisit this important research agenda using US state level panel data. We find the two‐way fixed effects model a suitable model for testing the government failure theory's robustness and present findings which indicate that observable demand heterogeneity has a positive effect on the size of the nonprofit sector. This paper also empirically examines the relevance of the complementary financing hypothesis in terms of the cooperative nature of the governmental and nonprofit sector relationship; that is where governments delegate the production of quasi‐public goods to the nonprofit sector.     

财政分权视角下的地方政府债务研究:一个综述

本文通过在财政分权的框架下对地方政府债务的成因、影响、管控的相关理论分析和经验研究的梳理,总结了较为成熟的财政联邦经济体在地方债务管理实践中的经验教训,同时,也对正处于分权化改革当中的转型国家的地方政府债务问题进行了总结,并最终落脚到中国的地方政府债务问题上来。中国的地方政府债务问题因与分税制度不完善、地方官员激励扭曲、地方融资平台不规范、宏观调控和财政政策需要等问题联系在一起而更加错综复杂,需要在借鉴已有研究的基础上结合中国的现实制度特征做进一步深入研究。     

Fiscal Policy,Economic Integration and Unemployment

In this paper fiscal policy is examined for an open economy characterized by unemployment due to efficiency wages. We allow for capital and firm mobility in a model where the government chooses the level of wage, source-based capital and profit taxation. The taxing choices of governments are analyzed in scenarios which differ with respect to the constraints imposed on the set of available taxes and on the mobility of firms. As a general result, the welfare loss from labor market imperfections increases when tax bases become internationally mobile, which suggests an increasing relevance of domestic labor-market reforms when tax bases become global.     

The Life Cycle of Terrorist Organizations

It is a fact that terrorist organizations come and go. This empirical fact tends to draw attention to the demise of the terrorist organization and distracts from the dynamics of the terrorist organization’s life cycle. In this respect, the extant literature suffers from a serious weakness that is symptomatic of the absence from the literature of a rigorous theoretical explanation for the life cycle of terrorist organizations. This paper aims to address this by developing a theoretical explanation for the life cycle of terrorist organizations that is centered on competition for grassroots or popular support between the terrorist organization and the government. The decline and demise of a particular terrorist organization is not certain ex ante and a terrorist organization may be expected to be most dangerous not in its death throes, but during its early years as it competes with the government for grassroots support. These appear to be different conclusions to those that characterise some parts of the literature on this subject. The theoretical explanation developed herein also predicts a cyclical oscillation of conflict.     

TARIFFS AND IMPORTS MISINVOICING UNDER OLIGOPOLY

Mismatch of trade statistics between developed and developing countries indicate a substantial misinvoicing of trade figures, primarily by developing country traders. This is due to the inflexible exchange rate regimes, severe import restrictions and export subsidies prevailing in Less Developed Countries (LDCs). In this paper, we focus on import underinvoicing due to high tariff barriers in a market where domestic producers compete with importers. Specifically, we examine how tariff levels, market structure and government intervention (in the form of intensity of monitoring and severity of penalties) affect the levels of underinvoicing. We also look at the optimal levels of import tariff and instruments of government intervention in these circumstances.     

两级政府约束下的企业合法性管理策略

由于中央政府和地方政府在利益和认知等方面存在差异,造成双方在对企业的规制要求上出现不一致和不协调的现象,致使企业经常陷入规制合法性冲突的状况,制约了企业的行动选择。企业应该如何适应来自不同制度主体的合法性要求,如何在合法性冲突的环境中实现生存和发展,是一个亟待探索的问题。本文在分析中央政府和地方政府的经济关系及其对企业影响的基础上,对企业在双制度主体约束下的合法性状况进行了分析。按照企业面对每个制度主体的合法性具备、不明确和不具备三种情况,把企业在两个制度主体约束下的合法性状态分为9种类型,归纳为7种合法性情况。在给出企业应对单一制度主体的合法性管理策略基础上,针对7种合法性状况,分别给出了组合策略。     

THE EMERGENCE OF COPYING TECHNOLOGIES: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

The past few decades have seen dramatic advancements in the technology of copying and the diffusion of copying technology to the general public. This paper surveys some of the recent academic literature dealing with this issue. We focus on (i) the effect of varying the extent of property rights enforcement by the government, and (ii) possible responses by producers of originals to consumers' ability to produce copies. The traditional view is that as the government increases property rights enforcement, there is a decrease in the social welfare loss due to underproduction and an increase in the social welfare loss due to under-utilization. In the first half of the paper, we show how the analyses contained in a number of recent studies throw doubt on this traditional viewpoint. In particular, varying the extent of property rights enforcement has effects that the traditional analysis ignores. As a result, the social welfare losses mentioned above can move in ways not recognized previously. The conclusion is that, contrary to what is sometimes suggested, choosing an optimal level of property rights enforcement by the government should not be viewed as a simple trade-off between these two social welfare losses. In the second half of the paper, we discuss possible market responses to consumers' ability to produce copies. Among other responses, we consider the role of price discrimination and complementary products when copying is possible.     

我国国债市场的金融功能与流动性分析

国债市场是货币市场的重要组成部分,在发达国家其金融功能已超越财政功能。我国国债市场由于流动性水平较低,难以执行宏观金融调控功能。为此,应当合理规划我国国债市场,并以提高其流动性水平为目标,拓展我国国债的金融功能。     

国有股权对上市公司绩效影响的U型曲线和政府股东两手论

在我国的上市公司中,本文发现国家持股规模和公司绩效之间呈现左高右低的非对称U型关系。总体而言,国家持股企业的表现不及非国家持股企业。同时,随着国家持股比例的上升,企业绩效起初随之下降;但是,当国家持股比例足够大时,随着国家持股比例的上升,企业绩效上升。这就是说,国家持股对企业的绩效具有两面性的影响。作为事实上的国有股东,政府存在着政治和经济双重利益,从而既通过政治干预攫取企业财富,又借助公司治理和优惠待遇来提升关联企业的价值。国有股减持应该避免U型曲线的底部价值陷阱。     

Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the brazilian inflation rate

In this article we analyse the monthly structure of the Brazilian inflation rate by means of using fractionally integrated techniques. This series is characterized by strong government interventions to bring inflation to a low level. We use a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994) which permits us to model the underlying dynamics of the series in terms of an I(d) statistical model, with the government interventions being specified in terms of dummy variables. The results show that the series can be well described in terms of an I(0.75) process with some of the interventions having little impact on the series.The author gratefully acknowledges the valuable comments of an anonymous referee. Financial support from the Minsterio de Ciencia y Tecnologia (SEC2002-01839, Spain) is also acknowledged.First version received: November 2001 / Final version received: December 2003