SOME PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES RAISED BY THE DEREGULATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Successful deregulation of financial institutions promotes flexibility and effeciency while avoiding the instabilities and abuses that characterized the financial system prior to the reform legislation of the 1930s. It is essential that deregulation nut undermine the efficacy of deposit insurance. The growth of money market funds has already resulted in a shift from insured to uninsured accounts. With deregulation there will be much larger shifts of funds to uninsured transactios accounts. In a deregulated world, it is essential that insurance be extended to cover transactions accounts, no matter who issues them, The paper also asserts that existing statutes are inadequate to deal with the conflicts of interest and anti-competitive practices that are likely to occur with deregulation. Safeguards should be established before deregulation goes any further. Finally, it is argued that in a deregulated environment, most forms of money will pay interest, and required reserves will disappear. While these developments will not destroy the efficacy of monetary policy, they will affect it. Little work has been done an the issue of monetary policy in a deregulated world. The paper discusses existing studies and suggests some topics for future research.     

REFORM OF THE DEPOSIT INSURANCE SYSTEM: AN APPRAISAL OF THE FHLBB AND FDIC STUDIES

This paper presents an appraisal of the studies of the deposit insurance system submitted to Congress by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board in compliance with the Garn-St. German legislation of 1982. The purpose of these studies was to assess the current structure of the deposit insurance system in light of the changes in the regulation of depository institutions mandated in recent legislation
Many observers of the financial system believe that, as a result of recent regulatory changes, the deposit insurance agencies do not have sufficient power to control risk-taking of insured institutions. These two reports present an assessment of mechanism which could be used to limit the risk of the deposit insurance agencies
The emphasis in both reports is on ways in which the amount of market discipline applied to insured institutions could be increased. Both reports identify essentially three ways in which this might be accomplished. First, risk-adjusted deposit insurance prices might be employed. Second, the volume of uninsured creditors might be increased, either through changes in limits of insurance coverage or through imposition of requirements for use of subordinated debt. Third, the current public deposit insurance system might be partially supplanted by one that is private. This paper evaluates the merits of each of these proposals and compares the positions taken by the FHLBB and the FDIC on the issues     

从日本的"支付"解禁看存款保险制度的实施条件

日本实施存款限额保护措施所遇到的困难以至最终延期表明,存款保险制度是在一国金融体系整体状况良好的情况下,发挥约束银行经营行为和淘汰劣质银行作用的一种制度。只有在金融监管有效运行的情况下,存款保险制度才能切实发挥其功能。而且,它要求市场信息的高度透明和国民高水平的伦理素质。结合金融领域的实际情况,我国建立存款保险制度的时机尚未成熟。     

THE TREATMENT OF INTEREST AND NET RENTS IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK1

The contention in this paper is that the present method of treating interest and net rents as transfers rather than as payments for services provided creates problems in the measurement of production by industry and that the difficulties encountered in explaining the treatment of interest items in the different tables of the National Accounts are even more apparent when one views the National Accounts framework as an integrated reflection of economic reality. It is argued that the lending of money arises from the stretching out of the production and consumption process, and the interest charges constitute a charge for the administrative services and risk involved. This is somewhat analagous to the charges for hiring out real goods and services. A similar case is made for the treatment of rents with the exception of imputed net rent where it is contended that economic risk is incurred only when production is undertaken for sale and that there should be no entrepreneurial return where the production is for the use of the owner-producer. It is suggested that an alternative treatment of interest and rents as payments for services is more realistic. Its adoption in the National Accounts would eliminate the need for imputations now made to account for the production of financial intermediaries, as well as the unconvincing explanations put forward for the present treatment of interest on consumer and public debt. Finally, it would serve to integrate the production accounts with the financial flows and the related financial structure.     

我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究——基于代际核算方法的模拟分析

文章利用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,基于符合国情的参数假设,分析了各种"新农保"方案对财政体系可持续性的影响。模拟结果表明,按照目前方案建立"新农保"体系并不会给政府增加太多负担,"新农保"覆盖面扩大的快慢对财政体系的负担基本也没有影响。由于个人账户中积累的资金目前按照一年期定期存款计息,政府承担的个人账户长寿风险非常有限。"新农保"体系带给政府的主要财政负担来自全额负担基础养老金,如果政府把全国的基础养老金都提高至上海市每月135元的水平,给政府增加的负担不会过多。因此,政府可以加快"新农保"覆盖面扩大的速度,并在现有的财力水平下把全国农村的基础养老金都提高至上海市的水平,但是提高幅度不宜进一步加大。     

对建立银行存款保险制度的分析研究

金融中介机构在现代市场经济中起着至关重要的作用,但是伴随着中国银行业市场化步伐的加快,金融领域的平静日益被打破,“优胜劣汰”的改革会使一些金融机构退出金融市场。为了保护这一退出过程中的存款者利益,构建良好的改革氛围,迫切要求我国尽快建立起存款保险制度。本文主要分析建立存款保险制度的时机选择,并结合我国实际情况,提出中国建立存款保险制度的构想。     

FINANCIAL OPERATIONS AND MONETARY STATISTICS: IMPROVED CONCORDANCE IN THE FRENCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

National accounts are a powerful means of coordinating different statistical systems. The better their classifications are adapted to the basic statistics or the information blocks one wishes to use, the better the national accounts play their part. This statement explains why, taking the opportunity of revising the whole system, French national accountants tried to improve the concordance between financial operation tables and monetary statistics. Other reasons leading to this attempt can be found in the dissatisfaction of users having to face different and inconsistent financial information such as the monetary statistics on one hand and the financial aggregates of the national accounts on the other; and even more reasons appear in the organizational field since those two statistical systems are issued by two neighbour services of the Banque de France, often depending on the same sources. Further, many propitious factors are converging at the same time: the French financial system is undergoing profound transformations originating as much in the behaviour of economic agents as in the law, and the statistical operations have to adapt to these changes. The national accounts will in the near future include balance sheets in which financial asset holdings are directly comparable to the money supply aggregates. In its first part our paper sets forth the detailed reasons for our attempts, the conditions in which it took place and the present results. We have reached a much better degree of consistency between the two systems, even if the final scheme has not yet been adopted in either the monetary field or in the field of national accounts. But an important question remains open about the durability of the harmonization: we think that it could be relatively uncertain because of the differences in the goals pursued by the two systems and the constraints which they face. That is why in the second part of the paper we tried to review the way such a pragmatic undertaking as ours could call into question the way in which financial operations are described in the system of national accounts. If one agrees with the present boundary between the real and the financial sphere, the articulation must remain somewhat elementary. But if one wants to revise the usual so-called dichotomy between financial and non financial phenomena, we think that a complete rebuilding of the conceptual framework of the accounts has to be done; this would necessitate a considerable amount of theoretical and practical work.     

USES OF FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS IN MONETARY ANALYSIS

Developments in economic theory have in many ways enhanced the opportunity for using financial accounts data in monetary analysis. This is true in such areas as the role of assets, the development of portfolio choice theory, the demand for money, and the behavior of intermediaries. At the same time, theory has increasingly emphasized behavioral relationships. These developments give rise to new data needs. An inquiry was addressed to some 25 specialists, whose responses illustrate these needs. Some of the desired data are “more of the same,” such as more sectoring, more detail on financial instruments, data on stocks as well as flows. Some data needs, reflecting behavioral theorizing, point beyond traditional financial accounts data and call for maturity distributions, interest rates, rates of return on equities and real assets, and the parameters of their frequency distributions. The degree of economic development and the degree of openness are found to be important determinants of the kind of data to be sought and employed in particular countries. Public policy is finding increasing use for financial accounts data in coordinating the flow of financial resources with the planning of physical investment. Nevertheless, many policy purposes call for more detailed data than can be provided by an integrated system. This has led to a selective use of data sources outside the financial accounts. Builders of financial models, likewise, have found it preferable to work with more flexible data selected ad hoc than with integrated financial accounts. Hope of applying the techniques of modern model building to financial accounts data, such as econometric estimation of a flow of funds table, or its conversion into an input-output matrix, seems tenuous for the time being. Thus, financial accountants, competing with financial model builders for the attention of theorists and policy makers, must broaden the scope of their data in the hope that there is room for the growth of both disciplines.     

THE PRESENT STATE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN LATIN AMERICA

This document attempts to give an overall review of the present situation of national accounts in Latin America, and deals essentially with the statistical basis and procedures used in their preparation. The purpose of these comments is to place the main problems common to all countries in order of priority and, in view of the need to advance and in the face of the task of establishing the present SNA, to discuss briefly the main lines which future work might follow. The stage of development so far reached by national accounts in Latin America is unsatisfactory if compared with the former system recommended by the United Nations two decades ago, and their recent evolution indicates that the rate of progress has fallen behind the advances made in the theoretical field in this connexion, and in relation to the increasing requirements of macroeconomic information for economic planning and policy. This whole picture becomes more meaningful if the objectives, structure and content of the present SNA, that has already been in force for five years, are compared with the present state of national accounts estimates in the region, which reveals the long road that lies ahead and the magnitude of the effort required if the present situation is to show a change for the better. Clearly, little progress can be made unless the basic statistics are expanded in scope and improved. This is the crux of the problem, towards which the greatest efforts and resources should primarily be channeled. It is necessary to adopt a critical approach and concerted action with respect to four aspects which characterize the national statistical systems in Latin America:

• (a) organizational problems and the shortage of human and financial resources;
• (b) the lack of co-ordinated programmes of basic statistics;
• (c) the limited use of efficient methods of collecting data; and
• (d) the insufficient recourse to administrative records.

     

U.S. DEPOSIT INSURANCE REFORM

Congress, late in 1991, enacted a banking reform measure that (i) authorizes $70 billion of additional FDIC funding, (ii) enhances bank regulation and supervision, and (Hi) adopts a "trip wire" system for increasingly severe regulation based on a bank's capital. Congress rejected a number of key elements of the Treasury proposal submitted early in 1991, such as interstate banking and expanded bank powers. The Congressional action does not end the debate over banking reform. In due time, other attempts likely will be made to restructure the banking system along the lines of the Treasury proposal.
The Treasury proposal's positive points failed to offset its fundamental problems. The Congressional action, though not subject to the Treasury proposal's problems, falls short of complete deposit insurance reform. Both proposals fail to recognize that regulatory oversight is a poor substitute for market discipline in the current financial environment.
This paper reviews problems with the financial reform process and failure of the Treasury proposal to recognize these problems. It also reviews alternative approaches to deposit insurance reform.     

大珠江三角洲的产业升级与国际竞争力

改革开放后,珠江三角洲与港澳地区(统称为大珠江三角洲)利用“前店后厂“的分工协作模式,形成了外向依赖型明显、以轻型加工制造业为主的地区生产体系,成为世界重要的制造业基地,具有较强的国际竞争能力.近年来,这种生产体系在规模不断膨胀的同时,却存在着生产效益低下、产业升级乏力、国际竞争力不强等一系列问题.这主要是因为:该生产体系主要由产品生产环节构成,进行着相对简单的生产活动,缺乏产业创新和自我提升的动力.因此,大珠江三角洲国际竞争力的提升,必须调整和完善地区的生产体系,提高产业的自主创新能力和内生发展能力,推动产业的优化升级,提升产业合作的层次;另外,通过区域基础设施建设与使用方式的改革,构筑高效的分工合作体系,推动区域协调发展.     

Insurer Profitability in Different Regulatory and Legal Environments

This paper examines the variation in insurance company financial performance across states with different legal and regulatory environments. These environments are distinguished by a diverse set of measures created by the states to address problems in the insurance area. Using firm–level financial data for the period 1984–1991, quantile regression methodology is used to describe the differential relationships between profitability and these measures. The results indicate that the distribution of profitability is only weakly related to insurers regulatory and legal environments, and is significantly related to other factors, such as the size of the firm and the effective number of competitors.     

A BALANCED SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper describes the construction of a disaggregated system of 262 national accounts for the U.K. economy in 1975. The objective is to remove the discrepancies between income, expenditure, production and financial estimates which occur in practice. This is done with the aid of a generalized least squares algorithm for adjusting national accounts with subjective estimates of reliability of the various account items. The balanced system of accounts provides the cross-section data base needed for the estimation of a consistent multisectoral dynamic model of the U.K. economy and yields the classification converters and input-output tables necessary for such a model.     

新疆喀什农村新型养老保险实施情况及效果分析

建立新型社会养老保险是加快建立覆盖城乡居民社会保障体系的必然要求。喀什农村人口所占比重较大,对新型农村养老保险的需求尤为迫切。调查数据显示,新农保确实从一定程度上缓解了农民的养老压力,但现阶段农民的参保依然受到经济条件、文化水平、思想观念等因素的制约,且在政策的执行中存在保险激励机制不够健全、当地居民“等靠要”的依赖心理严重等问题。今后应通过明确责任、提高人口素质、完善激励机制和网络系统等途径促进新型农村养老保险制度的顺利推行,切实解决农民老有所养的问题。     

SURVEY OF COUNTRY PRACTICES IN COMPILING BALANCE-SHEET STATISTICS

From a survey of the 150 members of the United Nations it appears that only one country could at present provide the full range of balance-sheet statistics called for in the United Nations guidelines on this topic. Seven countries could compile balance sheets confined to conventional types of assets and liabilities–excluding assets like consumer durables and mineral deposits. A further 31 countries presently publish some statistics on certain balance sheet items, but as the data have generally not been collected with a view to constructing national balance sheets they tend to be deficient for such purposes both in coverage and valuation. In other countries only rather trivial kinds of balance-sheet data are available, such as certain banking statistics collected by the central monetary authority for purposes of bank regulation.
A review of sources and methods shows that for financial assets and liabilities extensive use is made of company accounts and enterprise surveys. The estate multiplier method is used in several countries for measuring household assets and net worth. As regards producers' fixed assets, countries with centrally-planned economies generally take direct surveys of assets, while in countries with market economies the perpetual inventory method is preferred.
It is noted that many of the purposes for which balance-sheet statistics are used can be adequately served without constructing a complete set of accounts. To date balance-sheet statistics have therefore tended to be developed in a piecemeal fashion with priority going to those parts of the accounts whose uses for economic analysis are most obvious. Chief among these are statistics on the financial assets and liabilities of corporate enterprises and statistics on the stock of producers' fixed assets. These two areas also predominate in countries' plans for the future development of balance-sheet statistics.     

关于解决我国养老保险改革转型成本的思考

指出我国养老保险个人账户"空账"运行的现状,总结了近年来我国政府已经采取的和尚在论证阶段的解决养老保险改革成本的具体做法,并对其效果或可行性作了简要分析。归纳了"辽宁试点"的成绩及存在的问题。提出了解决转型成本、实现个人账户"实账"运行的具体思路。     

Culture,financial crisis and the demand for property,accident and health insurance in the OECD countries

Culture has been known to play an important role in explaining differences in consumption behaviour across countries. Yet, we know very little how it affects spending on non-life insurance products. This paper attempts to shed some light on how cultural characteristics impact the demand for property, accident and health insurance, focusing on the OECD countries in the period 2000–2017. We find, via the system generalized method of moment estimations, that cultural characteristics such as individualism, long-term orientation, masculinity and uncertainty avoidance were the drivers of the expenditure on property insurance, whereas long-term orientation, uncertainty avoidance and hypometropia explained accident and health insurance spending across the OECD countries. In the presence of the global financial crisis, cultural effects on property insurance spending turned out to be relatively minor, with the exception of individualism. These findings provide valuable information for non-life insurance companies, consumers and policy makers in the OECD countries.     

农村养老保险基金运作的创新模式研究

农村养老保险基金投资渠道单一,既不能实现基金的保值增值,又难以吸引农民参加养老保险制度.由于农村金融发展严重滞后,导致农民日常生产、生活中出现的资金缺口难以得到解决.如果以农村养老保险基金为资金来源、以参加农村养老保险的农村居民作为信贷对象而从事信贷活动,那么将会产生多赢的经济和社会效果.     

充分发挥失业保险促进就业功能的探析

失业保险既是社会保障体系的重要组成部分,又是积极就业政策的重要支柱。20世纪80年代以来,我国逐步建立了失业保险制度,有效保障了失业人员的合法权益,为人力资源体系建立发展提供了有力的保障,对维护社会稳定、促进社会和谐发展发挥了重要作用。然而,由于制度框架的限制等原因,近年来失业保险促进就业的功能体现不明显,出现了失业保险扩面难、基金结余过多等问题,影响到失业保险制度的健康发展。当前,国际金融危机蔓延,给我国经济发展和人民生活带来严重影响,随着部分企业特别是劳动密集型中小企业生产经营困难,就业形势趋于严峻,要求国家实施更加积极的就业政策。从实际来看,失业保险基金实力增强,具备承担促进就业、预防失业的能力。对此,文章通过重点分析云南省失业保险运行状况,结合当前经济形势的需要,并借鉴国外在失业保险制度改革方面的带有共性的经验和做法,指出失业保险应由保障生活、促进就业向预防失业方向扩展,以充分发挥其在人力资源体系建设中应有的作用;同时,根据失业保险属性,提出在政策上要有相对灵活性,建议失业保险对象应扩展到用人单位。