参与惯性和投资选择

参与惯性是否影响了个体的投资选择?参与惯性是如何产生的?采用2006年中国9城市投资者调查数据,本文发现:在银行存款、外汇、股票、债券、期货、基金、借出、做生意、保险金、收藏品、房地产、理财产品、彩票等广义投资项目中,个体当前和未来期望的选择都表现出了参与惯性,即倾向于维持他们过去的选择;这种参与惯性是其禀赋效应或延迟决策等行为偏见的结果,而不是理性选择所致。本文的政策涵义在于:加强投资者教育,使其意识到并主动克服投资决策中的参与惯性,这是有效增进投资者福利的政府政策所需要考虑的。     

社会互动、信任与股市参与

什么影响了居民的股市参与?采用2004年广东省居民调查数据,本文发现,社会互动和信任都推动了居民参与股市。股市低迷造成的普遍性股票投资损失会降低社会互动的积极作用,而社会互动对低学历居民参与股市的正面影响更为明显。此外,高收入、高学历、高年龄的居民股市参与也更积极。我们的研究为资本市场的发展架设了一个新的社会结构和社会特征的政策视角:加强社会互动、提高诚信水平,这些都是推动公众参与股市所不可忽略和或缺的。     

政府对风险投资干预模式的相关制度设计

笔者研究表明,风险投资的准确含义应该是：由政府发起并扶持,并在带动社会各方面资源参与下的对具有较高科技含量、具有创新价值并预示社会科技未来发展、能带动社会未来发展和进步的科研成果的投资。该定义区别了一般意义上的高风险、高收益的投资对象,并明确了投资的主体和风险投资的主要推动机制,即政府的投入和推动是风险投资发展的真正主体,所有的其它资本形式只能是在政府的推动下起辅助推动作用。     

农村家庭子女数量对家庭教育投资行为影响的实证研究——基于湖北省随州市农村家庭的调查

文章根据帕森斯的一般行为理伦,通过问卷调查,分别从不同数量子女家庭对家庭教育观念、教育投资目的、教育期望、教育投入和教育投资选择进行实证分析。主要结论为子女少的家庭对现代教育投资观念有更强的认同感;独生子女家庭和四子女家庭在教育投资目的性上更倾向实现子女向城市流动;在教育投资选择上,多子女家庭除了遵守择优原则并存在一定的性别偏好和年龄偏好,子女少的家庭大多选择进行高价投资等。     

巨灾风险债券的利率敏感性研究——基于长江流域大洪灾风险债券的分析

通过探讨本金和利息保证比例对长江流域大洪灾风险债券久期和价格利率弹性的影响,分析了巨灾风险债券需求的一个重要影响因素——投资者资产负债的期限匹配因素,得出结论:巨灾风险债券与同期限普通债券相比久期较短,在利率预期上升的情况下,是良好的投资选择。     

发行可转换债券的原因及其定价方法

企业为什么发行可转换债券?原因有很多,其中主要有两个:第一个原因,可转换债券是推迟的股票。如果企业相信其股票的价格将随着时间的推移而上涨,则由于可转换债券提供了以高于当前市场价格卖出普通股票的途径,发行可转换债券要优于立即发行股票。关键的问题是,如果管理者期望可转换债券被转换,则与立即进行股票发行相比,可转换债券的优点是稀释的程度较低。     

企业社会责任探析

企业社会责任是当前社会各界普遍关注的热点问题。虽然企业是履行社会责任的主体,但企业社会责任的实现需要包括企业在内的各种力量的互动,即政府、企业、社会、公众和消费者的广泛参与和推动,法律规范与社会监督是企业履行社会责任的强大推动力。     

农村社会养老保险制度的探索

农村社会养老保险制度包括养老保险金的收取、基金投资、保险金的计发等环节。中国的农村社会养老保险制度迟迟没有建立,除了政治、经济、社会条件制约和理论准备不足,缺乏明确可行的方案外,关键是农村面临着制约养老基金投资、保险金计发的“瓶颈”———养老供给短缺。现行的模式都是以农民自收自支为主,但是农民收入普遍偏低,难以满足保费必须定期交纳的基本要求。传统经济学认为,社会保障是国家收入再分配的主要方式,政府激励在农村社会保障中的作用是重要的,国家应该成为农民养老供给的主体。目前,只要对现行的农村发展政策进行微调,政…     

我国市政债券发展问题研究

市政债券是缓解地方政府公共设施建设资金不足、改善地方财政状况、推进一国债券市场健康发展的重要工具.虽然我国已经存在大量"准市政债券",但由于现行法律的约束,市政债券仍未能正式发行,这不但影响了国家的宏观经济发展和投资计划实现,而且造成了较大的隐性风险.当前我国应尽快推出市政债券,推进相关法律法规体系建设,在清查地方政府债务的基础上出台地方财政风险预警和危机化解机制,贯彻市政债券试点审批制,严格控制发债规模,合理设计债券品种,健全完善市场体制和相关保障促进机制,不断推动市政债券发展.     

寻找创时代的思想力量——评《第四次创业浪潮》

<正>创业已毫无疑问成为当今时代最重要的主题之一。改革开放以来,一次又一次的创业浪潮推动了中国经济繁荣发展。当前中国正经历新一轮创业浪潮。那么,这次创业浪潮与前几次的创业浪潮有何不同?对当前乃至未来国家转型发展会产生什么样的影响?其发展趋势如何?每个组织和个体该如何顺应和把握这     

Misery loves company: Social regret and social interaction effects in choices under risk and uncertainty

Extensive field evidence shows individuals? decisions in settings involving uncertainty depend on their peers? decisions. One hypothesized cause of peer group effects is social interaction effects: an individual?s utility from an action is enhanced by others taking the same action. We employ a series of controlled laboratory experiments to study the causes of peer effects in choice under uncertainty. We find strong peer group effects in the laboratory. Our design allows us to rule out social learning, social norms, group affiliation, and complementarities as possible causes for the observed peer group effects, leaving social interaction effects as the likely cause. We use a combination of theory and empirical analysis to show that preferences including “social regret” are more consistent with the data than preferences including a taste for conformity. We observe spillover effects, as observing another?s choice of one risky gamble makes all risky gambles more likely to be chosen.     

Group Lending under Dynamic Incentives as a Borrower Discipline Device

In recent years group lending has become an increasingly utilized tool for providing credit access to the poor in developing countries. Using empirical results from first-hand field research on Guatemalan borrowing groups, this paper develops a simple game-theoretic model of group lending. Results from the model show that through peer monitoring, the threat of group expulsion, and the safety net of intragroup credit insurance, group lending mitigates some risky investment behavior that would otherwise occur under an individual borrowing contract. The credible threat of social sanctions against group members who misallocate borrowed capital further reduces instances of such behavior.     

个体特质、信息获取与风险态度——来自中国股民的调查分析

本文利用中国6个城市的733位股市投资者的调查数据,分析了投资者的风险偏好状况及其影响因素。研究显示,我国投资者的总体风险态度是风险规避型的,进一步的多变量Logit回归分析发现,投资者的部分个体特质(比如受教育程度、职业)、个人财富状况会显著影响投资者的风险偏好;投资经验的积累会降低其风险系数。一个创新的研究结果是投资者获取信息的渠道和对媒体的信任程度会对投资者风险态度有显著影响,具体来说,信息来源更为丰富的渠道会提高投资者的风险偏好程度,而对新闻媒体的信任程度越低,风险偏好程度也会提高。这些研究结论对券商有针对性的进行客户管理、证券监管部门加强投资者的风险控制、新闻媒体的监管等等,都有重要的政策意义。     

社保基金持股上市公司的股权融资偏好

社会保险基金的投资行为在一定程度上可反映出国家政策走向,因此,受到市场投资者的关注。而社保基金的投资信息只能通过其持股上市公司的信息公布才得以披露。这些上市公司为增加机构投资者的持股比例,提前将信息泄露给其他机构投资者,公司股价会产生一个在信息披露之前反应的超额收益,损害了中小投资者利益。     

Between centralized and decentralized welfare policy: Have national guidelines constrained the influence of local preferences?

Decentralized welfare services allow more flexibility toward individual needs assessment, but may also have negative consequences such as welfare competition or lack of equity between regions. Does national standardization require full centralization of individual assessment, or can a set of unbinding national guidelines reduce unwanted variation between regions? The case of this article is a national benefit norm for municipal social assistance payments issued by the Norwegian central government in 2001. A large share of municipalities changed their local norms to match the national norm in the following years, but data show that local benefit norms are uncorrelated with the actual payments. The apparent compliance to national guidelines does not translate into actual welfare generosity.Although caseworker discretion is important for individual payments, the municipal level of welfare payments is clearly influenced by local preferences and budget constraints. This implies that political control is active, but through other instruments than the local benefit norms.     

Evolutionary stability of social norms in a socioeconomic equilibrium model

A hybrid of a model of economic equilibrium in two markets and a social game is formed. The link between the two is established through a social norm that conditions correct social behavior on economic variables and therefore distorts the economic equilibrium allocation. The initial endowment of an individual determines whether she gains from a social norm. The evolution of norms is examined in a dynamic model where norms are more likely to persist if they deliver higher utility to their believers. Also it is assumed that norms lose importance when they are disobeyed by their believers. Optimally coordinating norms are not necessarily evolutionarily stable, and a suboptimal norm can be the outcome of the evolutionary process.     

中国企业研发决策同群效应的空间计量分析

考虑到企业间策略互动对研发决策的影响，将空间面板计量模型引入同群效应实证研究。基于2013—2019年中国A股上市公司数据，构建地区、行业和财务特征3类空间权重矩阵，结果发现：中国上市公司研发投入具有明显的惯性；企业研发决策主要受同行业同群企业研发决策（内生同群效应）及其特征变量（外生同群效应）的影响，同地区和相似财务特征的同群企业可以通过特征变量（外生同群效应）对本企业研发决策产生影响；尽管企业研发牺牲了短期盈利，但对股市估值的影响显著为正，说明中国资本市场投资者已具备一定的价值投资意识，而同群企业研发投入对本企业盈利和股市估值的影响均为负，说明中国企业研发互动主要体现为竞争效应而非协同效应；在国家实施创新驱动发展战略后，企业平均研发投入强度显著提升，3类同群效应显著增强。从全局视角对中国企业研发行为进行研究，以期为企业经理人提供有关激励研发创新、提升企业价值的启示。     

What norms trigger punishment?

Many experiments have demonstrated the power of norm enforcement—peer monitoring and punishment—to maintain, or even increase, contributions in social dilemma settings, but little is known about the underlying norms that monitors use to make punishment decisions, either within or across groups. Using a large sample of experimental data, we empirically recover the set of norms used most often by monitors and show first that the decision to punish should be modeled separately from the decision of how much to punish. Second, we show that absolute norms often fit the data better than the group average norm often assumed in related work. Third, we find that different norms seem to influence the decisions about punishing violators inside and outside one’s own group.