越南:经济游走在崩溃边缘

11年前的7月份,以索罗斯为首的国际金融投机者大规模攻击泰国货币泰铢,导致泰铢兑美元贬值45%,泰铢不得不放弃主要盯住美元汇率制度,实行浮动汇率制,从而引发了一场遍及东南亚的金融风暴。11年后的今天,越南经济的一系列迹象与那场危机前的泰国经济不无相似之处——通胀严重,货币贬值,股市大跌,房市低迷,身为全球最大大米出口国之一,米价却暴涨1倍以上,大量国际资本外逃……     

亚洲金融危机后泰国资本管制的经验与启示

自2003年开始,泰国迎来新一轮大规模资本流入。泰国银行为避免发生货币投机行为,引入了对投机性资本流入的管制。为创造更加平衡的资本流入状态,泰国鼓励资本流出自由化。2006年,资本流入激增和经常账户盈余对泰铢形成巨大压力,导致泰铢过度升值,泰国银行决定实施无息准备金制度抑制泰铢过快升值,这一措施基本实现了其既定目标,即资本流入减少、泰铢更加稳定、出口表现强劲、国内需求回升等。     

浅谈汇率制度与东南亚金融危机

浅谈汇率制度与东南亚金融危机●初宇平唐明凤一、东南亚金融风波及其起因１９９７年７月２日，泰国宣布实行浮动汇率制，放弃了自１９８４年以来实行了１４年之久的与美元挂钩的一揽子汇率制。曼谷外汇市场顿时作出反应，泰铢对美元的汇率下跌２０％。紧接着菲律宾、马来...     

亚洲国家如何摆脱金融风暴

泰国金融风暴后10年，泰国发现它陷入另一场危机中。这次是政治危机。尽管2006年的军事政变令泰国的经济经历了低迷时期，泰国的经济基础还是很强的。事实上，泰国央行面临令泰铢贬值的压力，而不是和市场搏斗以支持泰铢。为此，2006年后期，泰国央行对资本流入进行了控制。现在泰铢的汇率是9年来最高的。     

泰国货币危机与韩国金融危机的比较研究

<正>一、泰国:围绕固定汇率的一场搏杀 泰国货币危机与泰国实行的固定汇率相关。泰国1984年开始实行固定汇率制度,即采取钉住特定“通货篮”汇率制度的作法。应该说,当时泰国实行固定汇率是适应了泰国制定的出口导向型经济发展战略的,是正确的选择。它的作用是:汇率稳定,有利于保障出口持续增长,免受汇率波动的影响;泰铢与美元挂钩,美元是主要的国际结算货币,这样可减少汇率风险,从而有利于吸引外资,树立外国投资者的信心;有利于维持国内较高的储蓄率,泰国储蓄一直维持在30％以上,支持泰国经济长时期高速增长。尤其是1985～1994年期间,由于美元汇率持续贬值,这使泰国获得了极大的本币贬值效应,出口导向型经济发展战略得以充分、有效地发挥。     

从变迁历史看人民币汇率制度改革新思路

本文介绍了人民币汇率制度的变迁历程,主要包括改革开放前的起步阶段、可调整固定汇率钉住制、钉住货币篮子和改革开放后的汇率双轨制及两种不同的有管理的浮动汇率制度。通过对历史上汇率制度的探讨和我国现状的分析,笔者认为我国汇率制度的改革应沿着"有管理的浮动汇率制—爬行钉住制—浮动汇率制"这条道路稳步发展,随着人民币汇率波动的逐步加大,人民币汇率制度最终过渡到浮动汇率制度。     

浮动汇率制度下货币政策操作模式及中国货币状况指数

本文重点研究浮动汇率制度选择下的货币政策操作。货币政策以控制通货膨胀为目标的国家 ,汇率制度均是独立浮动汇率制 ,实行有管理浮动汇率制国家的货币政策框架是钉住货币总量目标或其他货币规划。借鉴浮动汇率制下普遍采用的货币状况指数 ( MCI) ,我们建立了中国的货币状况指数 ,除考虑利率、汇率因素外 ,还考虑了货币供应量指标。计量结果表明 :目前中央银行调控经济的主要手段是货币供应量 ,货币政策规则主要是相机抉择行为     

人民币汇率与东南亚金融危机

人民币汇率与东南亚金融危机王晓博以１９９７年７月初泰铢贬值为开端的货币暴跌，引发了令人始料不及的“东南亚金融危机”。中国随着经济的发展及对外开放程度的日益加深，于１９９４年实现了人民币汇率并轨。目前，我国没有开放资本项目，人民币不是可完全兑换货币，因...     

市场纵横

泰币比价下跌 港商趁机进口宝石 泰国7月2日宣布改用“管理式浮动汇率”后,泰铢比价下跌,香港珠宝生产商估计,以泰币标价的泰国产红、蓝宝石价格将相应下跌,准备增加进货。 泰国宣布改变汇率之前,泰铢对美元的比价是25比1,其后快速下跌近20％,至29比1。 港商说,过去他们向泰商购买红、蓝宝石一般以美元交易,现在泰商有可能同意用泰铢交易,这对进口商有利。 近日与泰铢一起下跌的还有国际金价。因澳大利亚银行7月3日承认6个月来出售了160多吨储备黄金,金价两天内每盎司已下     

美元本位制和人民币钉住美元汇率制

一、问题的提出 亚洲货币危机以后,国际上一些知名学者提出危机产生的原因有三:1)短期资本的冲击;2)金融业和金融秩序有问题;3)固定汇率制.一般认为1和3有密切的关联,即有关经济体的因定汇率制引起了短期资本的冲击,如果是浮动汇率制短期资本的冲击就难以形成.由此得到的一个受到广泛支持的结论是,金融开放条件下不能采用固定汇率制,例如泰国的金融开放和泰铢钉住美元的固定汇率制的并存导致了危机.i与此相同的是,国内的大部分学者提出,我国加入WTO后必然会加快放松对资本流动的管制,吸取泰国的教训,人民币不能继续采用现行钉住美元的固定汇率制.     

国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响

随着我国金融市场的对外开放,资本自由流动是大势所趋。目前,在我国实施有管理的浮动汇率制度前提下,在应对美国次贷危机不断蔓延的经济形势下,研究国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响,具有非常重要的意义。这里在界定国际资本流动定义、介绍其分类的基础上,分析了我国国际资本流动的现状,从对我国货币供给量的影响、对我国货币币值稳定的影响、对我国央行货币政策的影响三方面探讨了国际资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响,得出了六点结论。     

Are Central Bankers Currency Manipulators?

The term “currency manipulator” has been used by the United States to describe the monetary practices of nations such as China and Japan and by Germany to describe U.S. monetary policy. This charge transcends monetary regimes and includes both traditional monetary policy and that in the service of industrial or developmental strategies that center on export led growth. While the latter clearly has a negative effect on employment and economic growth in the rest of the world, the increased international mobility of capital, combined with the wide-spread use of flexible exchange rates, has led to the same external effects from the normal conduct of monetary policy. Acknowledging and dealing with these negative external effects will lead to improved and less tension-filled international economic relations than calling nations “currency manipulators.”.     

TRADE PATTERNS AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: TESTING THE ASIAN CURRENCY BASKET USING AN INTERNATIONAL INPUT‐OUTPUT SYSTEM

This paper aims at analyzing exchange rates and trade patterns of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in relation to Japan and the United States, with reference to the Asian currency crises in 1997. In order to analyze these issues, we constructed an international input‐output model linked with macroeconometric models of the ten countries/regions. Analyses on the Asian exchange rates with a currency basket peg framework show that the Asian exchange rate policy was the de‐facto dollar peg policy. As for trade patterns in relation to the yen‐dollar rate; when a country/region's industrial structure is similar to that of Japan's and the yen is weak, the appropriate change of the yen's weight proves to hold its competitiveness. By contrast, the weak yen shows a decrease of its imports, regarding complementary structure. In either case, however, effects are limited.     

Enhanced Special Drawing Rights: How China Could Contribute to a Reformed International Monetary Architecture

Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the world has operated on a de facto system of free‐floating exchange rates, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency. The system, characterized by large pro‐cyclical capital flows and chronic imbalances, is inherently unstable, and has contributed to repeated crises, recessions and geopolitical tensions. One potentially “least‐difficult” line of reform would be to allow the evolution of a multi‐currency system, underpinned by an expanded role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Attempts to promote wider use of the SDR have foundered on the liquidity premium. However, for Chinese corporations and institutions, at present restricted in their capital account activities, the SDR liquidity premium would appear less daunting. The Chinese authorities could provide policy encouragement for the use of SDRs by their institutions. This initiative, supported by China's Special Administrative Region Hong Kong, would kick‐start an international SDR ecosystem, and encourage even broader use of SDRs, to the benefit of international monetary stability.     

Post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies in Indonesia,Malaysia and Thailands

This paper surveys the post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Malaysia has pegged the ringgit while Indonesia and Thailand have adopted heavily managed exchange rates. Under their IMF programs, Thailand and Indonesia set base money targets, but Thailand has moved, and Indonesia is now moving, to inflation targeting, using interest rates as the short-term instrument. Malaysia also sets interest rates. The ability of the three central banks to set interest rates and also pursue an exchange rate target with an interest rate target has been bolstered by restrictions on the internationalisation of the domestic currency. The three central banks have also had to sterilise the monetary effects of their foreign exchange interventions. It is argued that inflation targeting is now a good policy choice, but that a more freely floating exchange rate would be better than sterilisation of balance of payments surpluses or deficits.     

Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China

Since 2003, China has been facing a trilemma of determining how to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. The present paper is an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by sterilization and offset coefficients, respectively, using monthly data between mid-1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, but not in terms of M2, and that China＇s capital controls still work but are not quite effective. Recursive estimation reveals that increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing effectiveness of sterilizations might undercut China＇s ability to maintain monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously. To solve the trilemma smoothly, China＇s monetary authority should continue to relax the management of the exchange rate, and take further steps towards deregulation of capital outflows.     

国际贸易结算币种的选择——实证分析及对中国的启示

本文首先总结了国际贸易结算货币的宏观前提条件和进出口商在贸易实践中的经验法则。继而通过收集全球41个国家1992～2007年的样本数据,从出口国货币、进口国货币和媒介货币计价结算三个视角进行实证研究。分析结果表明,除了汇率制度、货币的可兑换性等制度变量外,汇率的波动性、进出口贸易的规模、方向和结构也是影响结算币种选择的关键因素。因而,人民币国际结算若要取得重大进展,不仅要逐步完成资本项目的开放,完善汇率形成机制,还要努力实现贸易出口多元化,并致力于产品结构的优化升级。     

弱势美元背景下的中国资本账户开放

2006年以来,美元对国际主要货币的大幅贬值导致全球金融市场动荡,国际短期资本大量流向中国,威胁中国的金融安全,使中国有步骤推进人民币资本账户可兑换、促进跨境资金双向流动的计划受到挑战。中国需要继续完善市场经济体制,按照市场化原则稳步推进资本账户开放;采取盯住货币汇率制度、完善外汇市场等手段,促进人民币汇率的稳定和灵活;提升人民币的国际影响力,增强中国经济抵抗外部冲击的能力。     

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.     

Renminbi Internationalization： Progress, Prospect and Comparison

Using principal component analyses, this paper constructs two internationalization indices for the renminbi (RMB) and 32 other major currencies. We find that the RMB's currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) is still low, and far behind the 4 most important international currencies. In 2009, it was ranked 18th among all important international currencies. However, in terms of the currency internationalization prospect index (CIPI), the RMB has remained the world's fifth highest since 2006. Although it is still far behind the US dollar and the euro, surpassing the ranking of the yen and the pound is possible in the near future. The dramatic difference in the ranking between the CIDI and the CIPI is a result of China's tight capital account control, the usage continuity of international currency due to network externalities, and the narrow foreign exchange and imperfect financial markets. Hence, to a large degree, the RMB's potential as an international currency depends on China's capital account liberalization.