Alternative Solutions to Underinvestment, Under Equity and Credit Rationing

We compare alternative solutions to underinvestment (UI) problems in firms subject to limited access to equity markets, interest ceilings, and constraints on the volume of debt. Collaterals (assets or compensating balances) and credit insurance ('regular' or 'outcome' insurance whereby the premium is paid at the end of the insurance period) are compared on the basis to their costs and their effective use of financial sources. It is shown that when there is no moral hazard problem, credit insurance is the most effective instrument. Otherwise, 'outcome' insurance program is the most effective one.     

信贷配给理论发展、模型与实证研究

信贷配给理论是一个比较复杂的经济学理论,对于信贷配给至今还没有一个统一公认的定义,该理论不仅内容多、不系统,且理论模型多又较为分散,实证研究虽已处于起步阶段但度量仍较为困难。中国学者对此问题也进行了10多年的研究,研究基本分为两类:一类是零散介绍西方信贷配给理论研究情况,另一类是结合中国国情进行了相应的信贷配给问题的研究。为全面理解和把握好信贷配给理论,本文从信贷配给定义、信贷配给理论发展、信贷配给理论模型、信贷配给实证和中国信贷配给理论研究等多视角,对信贷配给理论与实证文献进行了一次比较全面、系统的梳理。     

基于“三农”视角的农村信贷配给分析与对策选择

在目前的农村信贷市场上,以农村信用社为主的正规金融和私人借贷等非正规金融构成了信贷的供给方。但由于种种原因,作为支农主力军的农村信用社在担负起支农、兴农责任时,尚有部分保留,而非正规金融由于"先天不足",其借贷活动的规范仍需长期的政策引导与市场监管,这就导致了"涉农贷款难"。为此,本文从"三农"的角度,用微观经济学中的相关理论对当前农村信贷配给中存在的问题进行分析,并就解决"涉农贷款难"提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于信息不对称的信贷配给均衡模型研究

本文建立了竞争和信息不对称条件下,信贷市场的信贷配给均衡模型,模型表明在为不同的借款人提供由贷款利率和贷款额度组成的相同贷款合同的情况下,信贷市场存在稳定的单合同均衡,信贷市场的均衡在信贷配给点达到,因而从信息不对称和均衡的角度解释了信贷配给现象。     

Credit Rationing and Credit View: Empirical Evidence from an Ethical Bank in Italy

Attempts have been made in the empirical literature to identify credit rationing and its determinants using balance sheet data or evidence from corporate surveys. However, observational equivalence, identification problems, and interview biases are serious problems in these studies. We analyze directly the determinants of credit rationing in credit files by examining the difference between the amounts demanded by and supplied to each borrower, as shown by official bank records. Our findings provide microeconomic evidence that supports the credit view hypothesis by showing that the European Central Bank refinancing rate is significantly and positively related to partial (but not total) credit rationing. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that this variable affects the total volume of bank loans.     

中国银行借款与商业信用融资的治理效应：过度投资视角

依据沪深 A股主板市场2007-2015年样本数据,考量中国银行借款与商业信用融资的治理效应.结果显示:无论是国有控股公司还是民营公司,银行借款均对其过度投资行为存在诱发作用;与短期借款相比,长期借款对公司过度投资的诱发作用更加突出.结果表明,商业信用融资有助于抑制公司过度投资,且市场化程度越高的地区这种抑制作用越突出.     

中国区域信贷配给现状及区域差异分析

在全球经济金融危机影响下,信贷成为推动我国经济发展的原动力,但目前我国区域信贷配给差异化现象相当严重,出现经济发达区域信贷配给弱化,经济落后区域信贷配给强化的空间差异状况,这在一定程度上影响和阻碍了区域经济发展。文章认为区域经济发展差异、宏观调控货币政策传导机制的区域差异、信贷政策的一刀切、存款准备金率的区域一致性和利率实质上的区域差异性、信贷管理体制的变革和信用环境差异等是造成信贷配给区域差异化的原因,正确认识上述原因,是有效消除信贷配给区域性和促进区域经济协调发展的根本前提和重要保证。     

The Underinvestment and Overinvestment Hypotheses: an Analysis Using Panel Data

We study the relationship between firm value and investment to test the underinvestment and overinvestment hypotheses. The results obtained, using panel data methodology as the estimation method, indicate that the abovementioned relation is quadratic, which implies that there exists an optimal level of investment. As a consequence, firms that invest less than the optimal level suffer from an underinvestment problem, while those investing more than the optimum suffer from overinvestment. The quadratic relation is maintained when firms are classified depending on their investment opportunities, the optimum being in accordance with the quality of investment opportunities.     

Credit Rationing,Customer Relationship and the Number of Banks: an Empirical Analysis

The recent important transformations of the banking sector, especially through numerous mergers and acquisitions, both in Europe and in the USA, have raised serious concerns for the financing of small businesses (SBS). Indeed, SBS are known to be heavily dependent of this financing channel but to be rather opaque. It has long been thought that banks classically solved this problem by developing long term customer relationships. But will the new large banks, born from the current restructuring process, be able to continue to play this role? If not, what strategy should SBS develop to compose their bank pool in order to avoid, as much as possible, credit rationing? These questions are at the heart of our analysis. We show that there is no unique rule: all depends on the degree of SBS opacity and the kind of bank the SBS are working with.     

中国农村金融市场中非价格信贷配给的理论和实证分析

本文建立农村金融市场中非价格信贷配给的理论分析框架,基于特殊设计的直接诱导式询问方法,对农户面临的非价格信贷配给机制进行调查和识别,并实证分析影响非价格信贷配给机制的因素。研究发现,农村利率市场化改革以来,农村金融机构并没有将灵活的利率差异化管理作为弥补潜在贷款损失的手段。当前农村金融市场中多种类型的非价格信贷配给机制并存,农村金融机构的信贷合约特征和放贷行为偏好使得一部分农户被配给出信贷市场,一部分农户主动退出信贷市场。农村金融机构倾向于与农村地区少数生产规模较大、具有稳定收入和身份特征的农户建立稳定的、以重复放贷为基础的信贷供给机制,不具备这些特征的农户将面临配给,这与利率管制时期的放贷行为并无本质差异。未来须调整仅仅以增加农村金融供给解决融资难题的改革思路,深入到市场结构、信贷合约和产品创新以及包括公司治理、风险甄别和内部管理机制在内的农村金融机构治理机制等微观层面的改革。     

信贷配给理论与货币政策中介目标的选择

信贷配给理论研究不对称信息条件下自由竞争信贷市场运行机制,为货币政策变动影响实际经济的可能途径提供了比传统理论更为丰富的论证。信贷配给的客观存在限制了利率作为中介目标发挥的传导作用。中国经历着从非均衡信贷配给到均衡信贷配给的过程,信贷对货币政策的有效性会产生重要影响。因此,中国应采取组合的方式选择货币政策中介目标,以更有效地传导货币政策意图,更好地实现货币政策最终目标。     

A Reexamination of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz and Weiss Model

We reexamine Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) credit rationing by simultaneously considering adverse selection and moral hazard. If returns of the projects are ranked by first‐order stochastic dominance, neither adverse selection nor moral hazard exists. If the projects have equalized expected returns, moral hazard does not exist, and credit rationing due to adverse selection occurs under extreme conditions. If the projects are ranked by second‐order stochastic dominance (SSD), adverse selection and moral hazard may coexist, logically restoring credit rationing, but SSD imposes strict limitations on lenders’ ability to classify borrowers. In general, our results do not support significance of credit rationing.     

The Relationship Among Managerial Sentiment,Corporate Investment,and Firm Value: Evidence from Taiwan

This study has two objectives: to examine the relationship between managerial sentiment and corporate investment and to examine the relationship between investment and firm value. We use a sample of Taiwanese firms and find that an optimal level of investment that maximizes a firm's value does exist and that it depends upon the quality of the investment opportunities. In addition, the empirical results show that when firms have valuable (nonvaluable) investment opportunities, managerial optimism (pessimism) makes overinvestment (underinvestment) more likely. Interestingly, the overinvestment (underinvestment) phenomenon for optimistic (pessimistic) managers differs significantly between valuable project and nonvaluable project firms.     

逆向选择与信用配给:中小企业融资难根源分析

文章通过中美中小企业融资的渠道和结构对比,分析中国中小企业融资困难的原因,并进一步通过两个模型解释资金借贷市场上的逆向选择问题和银行被迫采用的信用配给制度.文章最后提出了解决中小企业融资困难的一些建议.     

Investment Decisions in Anticipation of Recessions and Outperformance of Pre-Acting Firms

We empirically examine whether firms make investment decisions in anticipation of recessions and subsequently perform better. Using a large quarterly dataset of fixed asset investments for U.S. firms during 1984–2012, we show that not all firms efficiently adjust their investment decisions in anticipation of a recession. However, we find that pre-acting firms that properly adjust their investment decisions (i.e., underinvest) before a recession outperform re-acting firms that fail to make proper investment decisions (i.e., overinvest) before a recession in subsequent returns on assets, returns on investments, and market-adjusted return measures.     

政府公共治理、财政透明与企业投资效率

近期的研究支持了转型经济条件下政府与企业之间的密切联系,但却少有研究关注政府公共治理效力对微观企业的影响。基于此,本文以地方政府财政透明度为对象,将政府公共治理因素纳入到企业行为的分析中,观察其对企业投资效率的影响。本文发现,与央企和民企相比,地方政府财政透明度的增加更有助于提高地方国有企业的投资效率;地方政府财政透明度的增加对地方国有企业的过度投资具有更强的抑制作用。本文的研究提供了政府公共治理影响企业价值的经验证据,丰富了转型经济条件下政府——企业的行为分析框架。并且本文对推进财政信息公开、加强社会主义民主制度和责任型政府建设,亦具有积极的实践指导价值。     

股票价格对信贷冲击的动态影响

本文使用基于马尔科夫区制转移方法的协整模型(MS-ECM和MS-VECM),以长期信贷需求方程为基础,研究了我国信贷市场的稳定状态与非稳定状态。实证结果显示:在信贷市场的非稳定状态中,我国股票价格变化对信贷冲击形成了较为明显的动态影响。这种动态影响的出现除了与西方学者所关注的信贷配给效应有关以外,还与信贷资金流入股市有着密切联系。另外,实体经济与信贷的动态互动可以显著增加信贷冲中击的持续性。基于以上结论,本文提出我国应该整合各种监管资源和政策工具,对股票价格变动引起持续性信贷冲击的现象进行动态预防和监控。     

数字经济下的征信替代数据发展研究

在数字金融场景下,替代数据有助于解决薄信用人群的信用评价问题,在现代征信体系中发挥着重要作用.从替代数据对信贷市场发展的影响入手,结合国内外应用实践,分析替代数据的采集应用问题,总结提炼数据边界与数据类型,借助SWOT分析方法剖析数据应用利弊,思考构建规范的数据使用机制,同时借鉴国外监管经验提出我国替代数据的监管建议,...     

提升政府信用的必要性及对策建议

市场经济是信用经济,然而信用体系建设的严重滞后已经成为制约我国经济发展的一个非常重要的因素。政府信用作为整个信用体系中最为核心和基础的部分,对我国信用体系的建设起到关键性的作用。本文从经济学的角度分析了我国政府信用缺失对经济、社会的影响,找出了其缺失的原因,并在此基础上提出了重塑我国政府信用的政策选择。