Competitive prizes: when less scrutiny induces more effort

We consider a principal who is keen to induce his agents to work at their maximal effort levels. To this end, he samples n days at random out of the T days on which they work, and awards a prize of B dollars to the most productive agent. The principal’s policy (B, n) induces a strategic game Γ(B, n) between the agents. We show that to implement maximal effort levels weakly (or, strongly) as a strategic equilibrium (or, as dominant strategies) in Γ(B, n), at the least cost B to himself, the principal must choose a small sample size n. Thus less scrutiny by the principal induces more effort from the agents.The need for reduced scrutiny becomes more pronounced when agents have information of the history of past plays in the game. There is an inverse relation between information and optimal sample size. As agents acquire more information (about each other), the principal, so to speak, must “undo” this by reducing his information (about them) and choosing the sample size n even smaller.     

A discrete replacement model for a two-unit parallel system subject to failure rate interaction

In this paper, a repairable two-unit parallel system with failure rate interaction between units is studied. Failure rate interaction between units is described as follows. Unit-1 failure whenever occurs can increase the failure rate of unit-2 of some amount, while unit-2 failure can induce unit-1 into simultaneous failure. We consider a discrete replacement policy N based on the number of unit-1 failure. The system is replaced at the instant of the N-th failure of unit-1 or on simultaneous failure of the system. Our problem is to determine an optimal replacement policy N ^* such that the expected cost rate per unit time is minimized. The explicit expression of the expected cost rate per unit time is derived by introducing relative costs and the corresponding optimal number N* is also verified finite and unique under some specific conditions.     

股利优序分配初探

股利政策作为企业的核心财务问题之一,它的发放既关系到公司股东和债仅人利益,又关系到公司的未来发展。本文从我国上市公司的股利分配是非理性出发,提出要优化上市公司股利分配政策,使之树立为股东增加财富的思想,注重股利政策的连续性,给投资者带来现实的回报。最后在分析了制约上市公司股利分配政策的因素之后,创造性地提出了股利优序分配理论。作为对此理论的补充,进一步提出上市公司在不同发展阶段采取的优序股利分配政策以供上市公司借鉴,实现股东财富最大化,提高企业价值。这些理论对我国上市公司股利分配政策的制定和分析具有一定的现实意义。     

Gains from interest-rate smoothing in a small open economy with zero-bound aversion

We extend the Monacelli [Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(6), 1047–1066] model to allow for a central bank that penalizes nominal interest rate paths that are too close to the zero lower bound. We analytically derive the optimal interest-rate policy rule in each equilibrium under four policy regimes: (i) benchmark commitment to an ex-ante optimal monetary-policy plan; (ii) benchmark discretionary policy; (iii) optimal delegation to a discretionary policy maker with similar preferences to society; and (iv) optimal delegation to a discretionary policy maker with an additional taste for interest-rate smoothing. Under the commitment benchmark, the optimal interest-rate rule is proved to be intrinsically inertial, whereas this property is non-existent under discretionary policy. In the absence of commitment, there are gains to delegating policy to an interest-rate smoothing central banker. We show that while the endogenous law of one price gap in the model exacerbates the optimal policy trade-off that arises under discretionary policy, the latter feature of interest-rate smoothing acts to weaken it, by mimicking intrinsic inertia under the commitment policy.     

The Optimal Size of a Religious Congregation: An Economic Theory of Clubs Analysis

The economic theory of clubs model is applied to determine the optimal size of a religious congregation. The optimal size is specified to be where total contributions are maximized. This occurs where the marginal benefits of adding a new member (in terms of contributions gained from that new member) equal the marginal costs of that new member (in terms of contributions lost from existing members). Benefits from adding members include enhanced fellowship opportunities and the spreading of fixed costs across a broader base. Costs include the congestion of facilities and a greater tendency to free ride. The model is empirically tested for four denominations. The average Catholic parish is found to be much larger than its optimal size, while the average Episcopalian, Lutheran, and Methodist congregations are all found to be smaller than their optimal size.     

A fuzzy-QFD approach to supplier selection

This article suggests a new method that transfers the house of quality (HOQ) approach typical of quality function deployment (QFD) problems to the supplier selection process. To test its efficacy, the method is applied to a supplier selection process for a medium-to-large industry that manufactures complete clutch couplings.The study starts by identifying the features that the purchased product should have (internal variables “WHAT”) in order to satisfy the company's needs, then it seeks to establish the relevant supplier assessment criteria (external variables “HOW”) in order to come up with a final ranking based on the fuzzy suitability index (FSI). The whole procedure was implemented using fuzzy numbers; the application of a fuzzy algorithm allowed the company to define by means of linguistic variables the relative importance of the “WHAT”, the “HOW”–“WHAT” correlation scores, the resulting weights of the “HOW” and the impact of each potential supplier.Special attention is paid to the various subjective assessments in the HOQ process, and symmetrical triangular fuzzy numbers are suggested to capture the vagueness in people's verbal assessments.     

Optimal migration policies: an analytical approach. Part I

This paper explores the analytical features of population distribution or human settlement policies. It proposes a methodology for quantitative policy analysis and policy design based on optimal control and system theory. The paper consists of two parts. This part shows how policy models may be derived from demographic and demoeconomic or demometric models by adding a new dimension: the goals-means relationship of population distribution policy. It examines a large class of relevant policy models and demonstrates their relationship to the original Tinbergen Theory of Policy, which provides a paradigm for static and dynamic policy analysis. Problems of existence and of design of optimal population distribution policies are studied analytically. In designing optimal policies, use may be made of the minimizing properties of generalized inverses.     

Stability and efficiency from a Neo-Keynesian viewpoint

This paper raises once more the Keynesian challenge of the classical doctrine that an unguided market economy has a natural tendency towards optimal employment of resources. By means of a simple macromodel, we show that if quantity expectations are incorporated into the Walrasian model, then it is no longer generally true that the ‘invisible hand’ leads the economy to Walrasian equilibrium. Instead, it may lead the economy to a kind of Keynesian equilibrium in which the firms' sales expectations constitute a binding constraint on production. Moreover, while Pareto optimum is unstable and hence unattainable in our model, a ‘second-best’ optimum among stable equilibria exists and requires a public sector. Accordingly, a trade-off between efficiency and other policy aims occurs only at tax rates above the positive tax rate in optimum     

Incorrect asymptotic size of subsampling procedures based on post-consistent model selection estimators

Subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap have been suggested in the literature as methods for carrying out inference based on post-model selection estimators and shrinkage estimators. In this paper we consider a subsampling confidence interval (CI) that is based on an estimator that can be viewed either as a post-model selection estimator that employs a consistent model selection procedure or as a super-efficient estimator. We show that the subsampling CI (of nominal level 1−α for any α(0,1)) has asymptotic confidence size (defined to be the limit of finite-sample size) equal to zero in a very simple regular model. The same result holds for the m out of n bootstrap provided m²/n→0 and the observations are i.i.d. Similar zero-asymptotic-confidence-size results hold in more complicated models that are covered by the general results given in the paper and for super-efficient and shrinkage estimators that are not post-model selection estimators. Based on these results, subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap are not recommended for obtaining inference based on post-consistent model selection or shrinkage estimators.     

Some notes on discount factor restrictions for dynamic optimization problems

We consider dynamic optimization problems on one-dimensional state spaces. Under standard smoothness and convexity assumptions, the optimal solutions are characterized by an optimal policy function h mapping the state space into itself. There exists an extensive literature on the relation between the size of the discount factor of the dynamic optimization problem on the one hand and the properties of the dynamical system x_t+1=h(x_t) on the other hand. The purpose of this paper is to survey some of the most important contributions of this literature and to modify or improve them in various directions. We deal in particular with the topological entropy of the dynamical system, with its Lyapunov exponents, and with its periodic orbits.     

Credit rationing and threshold effects in the relation between money and output

The possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non-linearity in the relation between real money supply and output, of which a simple case is a threshold effect. In this case, consistent with the credit-rationing model of Blinder (1987), the monetary variable has a more powerful effect if it is below some threshold than when it is above. Testing for the importance of this threshold is straightforward if the appropriate threshold value is known a priori, but where the value is not known and must be chosen based on the sample, the testing problem becomes more difficult. We apply recently-developed tests applicable in this situation to both US and Canadian data, and find substantial evidence of a threshold effect, particularly in US data. However, the estimated threshold values are high.     

Fiscal reform,bank solvency,and the law of unintended consequences: a CGE analysis of Mexico

Whether due to random economic shocks or deliberate policy measures, sudden relative price changes can lower bank solvency. Whereas “winners”—i.e., those sectors experiencing improved net prices for their output—aren’t obliged to share their good fortune with banks, “losers” my share their bad fortune by electing to default on bank loans. This paper presents a disaggregated dynamic computable general equilibrium model, used to analyze specifically how current policy proposals to stimulate savings might affect solvency in different sectors. We find surprising capital losses in pesos for two of the three policies simulated, which would leave domestic currency debtors substantially worse off.     

Taxes and money in incomplete financial markets

Abstract We analyze a model with incomplete financial markets, where money is needed to pay taxes. Equilibria exist, are typically regular and not Pareto optimal. Moreover, generically, there exists a redistribution of money among households which leads to a Pareto superior equilibrium. The intervention occurs only in the first period and it does not require either closing markets or upper bounds on the number of households. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B50 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D52, D60, E50, H20     

Structural instability of the core

Let σ be a q-rule, where any coalition of size q, from the society of size n, is decisive. Let w(n,q)= 2q-n+1 and let W be a smooth ‘policy space’ of dimension w. Let U(W)^N be the space of all smooth profiles on W, endowed with the Whitney topology. It is shown that there exists an ‘instability dimension’ w^*(σ) with 2w^*(σ)w(n,q) such that:

1. (i) if ww^*(σ), and W has no boundary, then the core of σ is empty for a dense set of profiles in U(W)^N (i.e., almost always),

2. (ii) if ww^*(σ)+1, and W has a boundary, then the core of σ is empty, almost always,

3. (iii) if ww^*(σ)+1 then the cycle set is dense in W, almost always,

4. (iv) if ww^*(σ)+2 then the cycle set is also path connected, almost always.

The method of proof is first of all to show that if a point belongs to the core, then certain generalized symmetry conditions in terms of ‘pivotal’ coalitions of size 2q−n must be satisfied. Secondly, it is shown that these symmetry conditions can almost never be satisfied when either W has empty boundary and is of dimension w(n,q) or when W has non-empty boundary and is of dimension w(n,q)+1.     

Exact and asymptotic tests for possibly non-regular hypotheses on stochastic volatility models

We study the problem of testing hypotheses on the parameters of one- and two-factor stochastic volatility models (SV), allowing for the possible presence of non-regularities such as singular moment conditions and unidentified parameters, which can lead to non-standard asymptotic distributions. We focus on the development of simulation-based exact procedures–whose level can be controlled in finite samples–as well as on large-sample procedures which remain valid under non-regular conditions. We consider Wald-type, score-type and likelihood-ratio-type tests based on a simple moment estimator, which can be easily simulated. We also propose a C(α)-type test which is very easy to implement and exhibits relatively good size and power properties. Besides usual linear restrictions on the SV model coefficients, the problems studied include testing homoskedasticity against a SV alternative (which involves singular moment conditions under the null hypothesis) and testing the null hypothesis of one factor driving the dynamics of the volatility process against two factors (which raises identification difficulties). Three ways of implementing the tests based on alternative statistics are compared: asymptotic critical values (when available), a local Monte Carlo (or parametric bootstrap) test procedure, and a maximized Monte Carlo (MMC) procedure. The size and power properties of the proposed tests are examined in a simulation experiment. The results indicate that the C(α)-based tests (built upon the simple moment estimator available in closed form) have good size and power properties for regular hypotheses, while Monte Carlo tests are much more reliable than those based on asymptotic critical values. Further, in cases where the parametric bootstrap appears to fail (for example, in the presence of identification problems), the MMC procedure easily controls the level of the tests. Moreover, MMC-based tests exhibit relatively good power performance despite the conservative feature of the procedure. Finally, we present an application to a time series of returns on the Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index.     

Optimal interest rate stabilization in a basic sticky-price model

This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households’ utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule—even if the importance assigned to the utility of money is small relative to consumption and leisure. We approximate the model around the optimal steady state as the long-run policy target. Optimal monetary policy is characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle.     

Buying Back Subcontractors: The Strategic Limits of Backward Integration

In a model where a monopolistic downstream firm (assembler) negotiates simultaneously with each of its n subcontractors the prices of the complementary components which enter its product, we show that backward integration is limited by a strategic negative effect: the prices and profits of independent suppliers increase when a merger reduces their number. Mergers are profitable only if the downstream firm buys at least two thirds of its suppliers. In an endogenous acquisition game à la Kamien and Zang (1990) the only merged equilibrium occurs when there is only one subcontractor. In a sequential acquisition game full integration is not an equilibrium when the number of suppliers is at least five.     

Predictability and Reflexivity

Abstract . Reflexive predictions are self-defeating or self-fulfilling. However, it was shown that in most cases of self defeating public predictions of social events conceptually at least one correct prediction exists. Unfortunately the term “reflexive prediction” is applied in the literature to quite distinct phenomena. A. Grünbaum, moreover, argued that reflexive prediction occurs also in the natural sciences using as example the fire-control system which “obeys only natural laws.” The purpose of this paper is two fold: first, it clarifies the terminological confusion. Second, it argues that every man-made tool (fire-control systems are tools) obeys natural laws and so does the person. The question of a person's higher functions, such as expectation and decision is only acknowledged. The conclusions are (1) that there is a fundamental difference between reaction to public (predictive) utterances and reaction to discriminatory behavior based on private ptediciion. (2) The reflexivity of public prediction is a phenomenon characteristic of the social sciences. at least as long as these disciplines are set apart from the natural sciences.     

The optimal disposition decision for product returns

We provide an analytic model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns. The manager decides which product returns to accept for processing at the remanufacturing facility, and which ones to sell immediately as-is at a salvage value. High congestion levels in the remanufacturing facility delay the sale of the remanufactured product at the secondary market, decreasing the value at which it can be sold; this may imply a more attractive salvaging option. This is particularly important for high-tech products with short life cycles, such as computers and printers. We propose a two-step policy. In the first step, the returned product’s random processing time is observed. In the second step, a disposition decision is made: if the processing time is larger than a threshold k* the product is salvaged; otherwise the product is remanufactured. We provide an approximate procedure to compute k* in industrial settings. Our numerical study demonstrates the superiority of our policy over the current industrial practice ignoring the time value of money.     

A Test of U. S. National Economic Policy in the Post-World War II Period

Abstract . This inquiry is an effort to evaluate the macroeconomic performance of the United States economy in the period after the close of World War II in terms of the macroeconomic goals to which national economic policy supposedly had been directed. That is, whether policy achieved full employment, price stability or an adequate rate of growth. Insofar as key indicators can be used as a basis for judgment—and there is, as yet, no scientific basis for measuring how far that reliance can be chanced—it would appear that policy was least successful in attaining full employment with price stability, or full employment, or price stability. In certain infrequent periods, growth seems to have occurred. But was its rate “adequate?” And did it result from policy? Analysis by key indicators may not tell us much, if anything; but it helps to delineate an approach toward policy-monitoring researchers need to cultivate.