商业银行信用风险压力测试研究

由美国次贷危机引发了许多金融机构的倒闭,如何去控制金融机构的信用风险是当前最值得研究的问题。压力测试是一种可以考察极端事件对金融机构的影响的方法,系统介绍了商业银行信用风险压力测试的两种主要方法,讨论了各种方法的优缺点和适用性,拟为我国商业银行信用风险压力测试提供参考。     

商业银行压力测试的应用研究

金融危机的爆发使得各国越来越重视压力测试,并广泛应用以确保银行业的稳定性。本文在论述了压力测试基本概念的基础上,分析了压力测试的整个流程,并提出了对商业银行实施压力测试的建议。     

对中小商业银行流动性风险压力测试的探讨

本文就流动性风险压力测试的重要意义、国内监管现状和目前中小商业银行在流动性风险压力测试上的不足展开分析,并基于欧洲一家商业银行流动性风险压力测试模板的研究,根据国内监管要求调整后,探讨了如何改进国内中小商业银行短期流动性风险压力测试的方法。     

压力测试:一种金融机构风险管理的重要工具

随着金融创新的不断深化,金融机构所面临的风险日益隐蔽,这必然要求它们具有更高的风险管理能力。作为风险管理的一种重要工具,压力测试已经被越来越多的国际一流商业银行和投资银行所运用。本文首先阐述了金融机构使用压力测试的必要性,紧接重点分析压力测试的使用方法,最后对压力测试在我国金融机构的实践应用给出建议。     

商业银行流动性压力测试系统的研究与实现

流动性风险压力测试系统在银行自身风险识别中起着重要的作用，是银行预测自身流动性风险承受能力，进行主动风险防范的重要方法。本文通过压力测试五步分析法，针对某商业银行的实际业务需求，设计了四大压力情景，建立了B／S、C／S混合结构的应用软件体系，实现了以压力测试为工具的流动性风险识别系统。     

某农村商业银行与某联社流动性压力测试比较报告

银行进行流动性压力测试的目的在于帮助银行认识自身的风险状况,改进自身管理,并设计应急预案以应对可能的风险发生。本文选取了某农村商业银行与某联社两家实际情况相差比较大的银行作为压力测试对象。通过历史情景设计和数理模型推理的综合运用,构建偿付性流动性风险压力测试模型,对银行短期即时的流动性风险因子进行分析。对比结果显示,在不同的压力情景下,两家银行均存在有发生即时偿付的流动性风险,某农村商业银行发生偿付性流动性风险的可能性大于某联社。     

商业银行个人房贷在房价下跌情况下的敏感性分析--基于西南某银行的压力测试

本文首先介绍压力测试和个人住房信贷压力测试思路，说明了压力测试的步骤与程序，再按照该思路来检验商业银行分行数据，最后判断该分行在三种压力情景下的风险承受能力。     

宏观审慎压力测试及实施框架

2008年国际金融危机以来,宏观审慎压力测试在全球金融监管部门的政策框架中扮演越来越重要的角色,它作为宏观审慎政策的重要组成部分,能够对整个金融系统的风险抵御能力进行定量的、前瞻性的评估,因此被应用于监测宏观金融脆弱性并为宏观审慎政策工具的运用提供信息。基于介绍宏观审慎压力测试的产生背景、压力测试内容、系统性风险放大机制以及与宏观审慎政策的关系,并就建立宏观审慎压力测试实施框架提出政策建议。     

气压PID控制在打火机压力测试装置中的应用

本文将气压PID控制方法应用到打火机压力测试系统,通过电磁比例阀、压力伺服阀实现打火机充气压力和充气速度的精确控制.     

宏观压力测试在系统性风险管理中的应用

宏观压力测试因其在衡量金融危机等极端情况下的优势以及作为分析尾部风险的工具得到了国际社会的认可。本文总结了国外在系统性风险管理方面应用宏观压力测试的经验,为我国政策当局充分利用压力测试进行系统性风险管理奠定了理论基础。     

Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests

We propose a systematic algorithmic reverse-stress testing methodology to create “worst case” scenarios for regulatory stress tests by accounting for losses that arise from distressed portfolio liquidations. First, we derive the optimal bank response for any given shock. Then, we introduce an algorithm which systematically generates scenarios that exploit the key vulnerabilities in banks' portfolio holdings and thus maximize contagion despite banks' optimal response to the shock. We apply our methodology to data of the 2016 European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test, and design worst case scenarios for the portfolio holdings of European banks at the time. Using spectral clustering techniques, we group 10,000 worst-case scenarios into twelve geographically concentrated families. Our results show that even though there is a wide range of different scenarios within these 12 families, each cluster tends to affect the same banks. An “Anna Karenina” principle of stress testing emerges: Not all stressful scenarios are alike, but every stressful scenario stresses the same banks. These findings suggest that the precise specification of a scenario is not of primal importance as long as the most vulnerable banks are targeted and sufficiently stressed. Finally, our methodology can be used to uncover the weakest links in the financial system and thereby focus supervisory attention on these, thus building a bridge between macroprudential and microprudential stress tests.     

Stress Testing Exposure of Banks to Sectors of the Ghanaian Economy

The capacity of Ghanaian banks to absorb large but plausible losses resulting from concentration of individual bank loan portfolios in sectors of the Ghanaian economy is investigated. Stress scenarios consist of worsening of banks’ impaired loan charges by one, two and three standard deviations of the industry’s recent distribution of non-performing loans. Findings reveal that the capital adequacy ratios of many banks would have been negatively impacted, some to the point of becoming insolvent. It is argued that, though these would be micro-prudential breaches, they are of such magnitude as to have economy-wide repercussions. Thus, bank loan portfolios are too concentrated.     

CORRELATION UNDER STRESS IN NORMAL VARIANCE MIXTURE MODELS

We investigate correlations of asset returns in stress scenarios where a common risk factor is truncated. Our analysis is performed in the class of normal variance mixture (NVM) models, which encompasses many distributions commonly used in financial modeling. For the special cases of jointly normally and t‐distributed asset returns we derive closed formulas for the correlation under stress. For the NVM distribution, we calculate the asymptotic limit of the correlation under stress, which depends on whether the variables are in the maximum domain of attraction of the Fréchet or Gumbel distribution. It turns out that correlations in heavy‐tailed NVM models are less sensitive to stress than in medium‐ or light‐tailed models. Our analysis sheds light on the suitability of this model class to serve as a quantitative framework for stress testing, and as such provides valuable information for risk and capital management in financial institutions, where NVM models are frequently used for assessing capital adequacy. We also demonstrate how our results can be applied for more prudent stress testing.     

基于宏观压力测试的我国商业银行信用风险的评估

通过构建宏观压力测试模型,研究宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响.以不良贷款率作为评估商业银行信用风险的指标,根据Logit模型将商业不良贷款率转挟为中介指标,然后将中介指标与各宏观经济变量进行多元回归分析以及对各宏观经济变量进行向量自回归分析.研究结果表明：选定的宏观经济变量对商业银行不良贷款率都有显著性的影响,同时,在设定的情景压力下,商业银行不良贷款率都有不同程度的增加.     

检验检测机构在食品安全中的作用分析

检验检测机构在食品安全检测工作中发挥着重要作用,该工作的执行不仅能够保证食品的质量,还能提高食品质量检测技术水平,以促进检测工作能够更科学、更准确地开展,从而保证人们的基本利益。基于此,阐述检验检测机构对食品安全所起到的作用,以保证我国检验检测工作水平能够得到进一步提升。     

Climate Change and Preparations for the Tide of Traumatic Stress: Implications for Asia-Pacific Human Resources

Although attention to the business risks posed by natural disasters fueled by climate change has grown, the toll that disasters have on human resources in the form of traumatic stress is comparatively neglected. It is common for more than 20% of people exposed to natural disasters to develop traumatic stress disorders that can last for years. In the workplace, traumatic stress hurts attendance, the quantity and quality of output, and relationships. Fortunately, businesses can promote employee resilience and recovery. Given the Asia-Pacific region’s high risk of natural disasters, businesses operating there should include employees’ traumatic stress in their disaster preparedness.     

Bank lending,deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

In this study, we conduct a panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks to ascertain whether Islamic banks are able to sustain financing supply and whether its growth is higher than conventional bank lending growth in times of stress. For concreteness, we also assess whether the sustained financing supply of Islamic banks is justified by a concomitant increase in Islamic deposit growth and is not linked to excessive risk taking. Utilizing a panel sample of 25 Islamic banks and 114 conventional banks from 10 dual-banking countries, we observe sustained financing supply by Islamic banks but significant reduction in the lending growth by conventional banks during the crisis period. The results further suggest that the financing growth of Islamic banks is higher than the lending growth of conventional banks during the crisis period. However, we find no clear evidence that the deposit growth of Islamic banks behaves differently during the period. Finally, there is no indication to suggest that Islamic banks exhibit excessive risk taking in times of stress. Our results contribute to the evidence supporting the contributive role of the Islamic banking system to financial and economic stability.     

我国银行同业拆借市场“传染”风险的实证研究

本文使用矩阵法模型模拟我国银行同业风险头寸分布状况,估计了银行体系内的“传染”风险。结果表明:(1)银行同业资产和负债都与银行的类型和规模相关,国有银行的同业头寸占全部同业头寸的70%以上,但其同业资产占比有逐年下降趋势;(2)银行体系内风险传染的概率非常低,同时风险传染的概率及其导致的损失在逐年下降;(3)如果考虑银行预期和银行安全网对传染风险的降低作用,危机传染的风险甚至会降至零;(4)对“传染”风险的估计也存在低估的可能,同时银行同业拆借市场的“传染”风险正在从银行同业之间向银行与其他金融机构尤其是证券公司之间扩散。     

Testing market positioning themes: a perceptual mapping approach

The purpose of this article was to examine a research method designed for testing marketing communication themes. The theme testing approach, which was based on perceptual mapping procedures, focused on communication potency issues such as the degree to which the communication achieves marketing communication objectives, is compatible with the image of the source, is compatible with the target consumers' preferences and is differentiated from competitors' market positions. The results of convergent and discriminant validity tests suggested strong support for the theme testing method.     

Hedging securities and Silicon Valley Bank idiosyncrasies

Hedging requires adequacy and timing. This paper finds that banks did not systematically ignore balance-sheet risks like Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and instead exercised risk management by asymmetrically increasing hedging activity when security losses increase and scaling back hedging activity as security losses reverse. Banks also hedge against bank runs when risk increases due to a combination of security losses and funding risks from unsecured deposits. Findings suggest SVB's mistakes are idiosyncratic. Results suggest that nonstress test banks target balance-sheet risks when hedging, stabilizing themselves from interest rate shocks transmitted through fixed-income securities. Scrutiny of rules-based outliers like SVB is preferable to increased regulatory burden for all nonstress test banks.