欧元区体制缺陷对成员国债务的影响及对欧债危机的治理分析

目前,欧债危机愈演愈烈,对世界经济复苏产生严重影响。该文从欧元区的体制缺陷入手分析其对欧债危机的影响,并提出欧债危机的治理措施,即先进行欧元区经济社会结构的改革,然后进行财政一体化改革。     

欧债危机引致的欧元汇率风险

始于美国的次级债券危机,造成全球经济衰退,希腊等欧元区国家爆发主权债务危机。欧债危机核心是欧元区治理机制的缺陷和各国经济发展不平衡造成。文章着重探讨了欧债危机产生的各种原因以及对欧元汇率的影响。     

化解欧债危机与深化中欧合作的对策——中国国际问题研究所汪巍先生访谈录

欧债危机带来的一个主要经济风险来自增长停滞和财政、银行信用紧缩带来的通缩压力。完善欧元区的治理,需要整顿财政和削减赤字,对劳动力市场做根本性改革,经济政策要兼顾增长。解决欧洲债务问题的根本出路在于推动债务国经济增长和结构性改革。在欧债危机背景下,欧盟对华贸易政策更加激进,欧盟贸易保护主义动作不断,我国对欧"走出去"面临一些新的机遇和挑战。我国为缓解欧债危机采取的积极救助,将为中欧合作开辟更广阔的空间。不久前,本刊记者就欧债危机的一些问题采访了中国国际问题研究所汪巍先生。     

欧债危机对我国经济的影响

希腊主权债务危机爆发,蔓延至整个欧洲。2012年1月标普下调包括法国在内的欧元区9国信用评级,全球经济形势更加严峻,欧债危机可能会进一步升级。欧盟作为中国的第一大贸易伙伴、第一大出口市场、第一大技术引进来源地和第二大进口市场,研究欧债危机对中国的影响和启示将有十分重大的意义。本文主要就欧债危机爆发的原因进行分析,并提出了我国应对欧债危机的策略,希望为我国与欧盟发展对外贸易提供一些参考。     

欧洲主权债务危机的现状及其对中国的启示

欧洲主投债务危机的升级巳引起了欧元区的经济、金融和政治危机,并导致了全球经济恐慌.本文从欧元区萎靡的经济形势、动荡的金融市场以及风云变幻的政治局面三个方面,分析了欧洲主权债务危机的现状.并且,通过对欧债危机现状的分析,总结了我国规避主投债务危机的启示.     

欧元区经济增长的前景与挑战

未来几年,稳定和持续的经济增长将是许多国家宏观经济调控的首要目标,从全球范围来看,欧元区债务危机依然是全球经济运行的主要风险源,欧元区的经济前景将直接影响全球经济复苏的进程,欧元区何时实现经济增长,不仅是发达国家回归经济增长进程的风向标,也是发展中国家经济稳健增长的重要外部条件。经过三年多的努力,欧盟与欧元区国家已遏制住债务危机蔓延的势头,但也付出了经济衰退和严重失业的沉重代价。目前,欧元区经济依然脆弱,     

浅议欧债问题

自欧债危机爆发以来,主权债务危机在欧元区国家内不断蔓延和升级,暴露了欧元区财政与货币不能协调一致的软肋,严重打击了欧洲经济。欧债危机继续发酵有其内在的逻辑。欧元区外围国家的债务负担沉重,经济增长停滞,而财政赤字严重超标,各国赤字早已突破了构筑欧盟基石的《马斯特里赫特条约》所要求的限制,但欧盟决策机构对此并未良策,从2009年开始的多次救助无果;面临债务问题,欧元区德法与债务国之间、欧洲央行与民间债权人之间,甚至于各国内部政府与民众之间矛盾重重,无法形成有效的救助方案与长期解决债务的机制,导致欧债阴影不散。     

欧洲主权债务危机的形势及前景

当前欧债危机出现了由希腊等"外围国家"向意大利、西班牙等"核心国家"蔓延,从公共部门向银行业蔓延,从西欧国家向中东欧地区蔓延的趋势,可能给世界经济带来新的更大冲击。欧元区领导人亟待改变对欧债危机"重灾国"进行救助的危机应对思路,也应谨慎使用成员国"退出"和"债务重组"的做法。解决欧债危机的根本出路应该是加强欧元区的财政协调,克服欧元区制度缺陷,发行统一的欧元区债券(E-bonds)。繁荣稳定的欧洲不仅对世界经济发展有利,也对中国经济发展有利。在欧元区发行E-bonds的条件下,中国应该积极支持欧元区度过危机,并吸取欧元区的教训。     

欧债危机对欧盟经济的影响与启示

欧元区主权债务危机的爆发无疑给欧洲和世界经济带来了重大影响,使欧盟经济复苏的前景暗淡。尽管国际货币基金组织和欧盟先后出台了一系列救助措施,但是并未有效遏制危机的继续蔓延和深化。欧债危机已经严重损害了欧盟经济增长能力,使欧盟的经济复苏增加了诸多变数,并给欧元的未来走向增添了不确定性。深入分析欧债危机对欧盟经济的影响,能够为我国的金融风险防范提供有益的启示。     

投资拉动经济不是长久之计---访著名经济趋势研究专家时寒冰

QE3（第三次量化宽松）已成定局,市场目光再次转向欧债局势。在近日召开的欧元区财长会议上,有关建立欧元区银行业统一监管机制的提案遭到了德国的反对。欧元区每次提出一个解决方案似乎都在迈入一个新的困局。“债务危机打的死结会把欧元引向何方？这对全球经济、乃至中国经济又有何影响？欧债危机又给中国带来哪些启示呢？”带着这一系列问题,     

“欧洲学期”:欧盟改善经济治理的重要一步

主权债务危机充分暴露出欧盟内部经济治理方面的体制性缺陷,也让成员国看到深化欧盟内部融合、增进财政预算和宏观经济政策协调的必要性。"欧洲学期"就是欧盟在债务危机恶化之际推出的一项重大改革举措,是完善欧盟经济治理的重要内容。因此,对这一机制的研究显得尤为必要。本文从"欧洲学期"机制的框架内容、创新之处、存在的问题、实施现状和预期政策效应等方面着手,试图对其做出较为客观全面的剖析,并给出初步的评价。     

Tree networks to assess financial contagion

We propose a two-layered tree network model that decomposes financial contagion into a global component, composed of inter-country contagion effects, and a local component, made up of inter-institutional contagion channels. The model is effectively applied to a database containing time series of daily CDS spreads of major European financial institutions (banks and insurance companies), and reveals the importance of monitoring both channels to assess financial contagion. Our empirical application reveals evidence of a high inter-country and inter-institutional vulnerability at the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and during the sovereign crisis in 2011. The results identify France as central to the inter-country contagion in the Euro area during the financial crisis, while Italy dominates during the sovereign crisis. The application of the model to detect contagion between sectors of the European economy reveals similar findings, and identifies the manufacturing sector as the most central, while, at the company level, financial institutions dominate during the 2008 crisis.     

Macroeconomic variables and the sovereign risk premia in EMU,non-EMU EU,and developed countries

This project studies and models key macroeconomic variables and their impact on sovereign risk premia across select European economies and developed countries. The sample is divided into three groups of countries: those in the European Monetary Union (EMU); the standalone economies outside the EMU but members of the broader European Union (EU); and other developed economies. The main subject of examination across all three groups is the impact of macroeconomic variables on sovereign borrowing costs. EU countries have experienced high financial stress and a rapid rise in the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads during the EMU debt crisis. A nonlinear vector smooth transition autoregressive model is applied to investigate such a regime change in the finance-output link using sovereign CDS and industrial production index. The paper finds that regime-switching takes place rather suddenly in most EMU countries. The study concludes that due to the potential spillover effects in the EU as a whole, the individual country macroeconomic indicators were less reflected in the financial stress and spillover and contagion effects became dominant.     

Financial supply cycles in post-transition Europe – introducing a composite index for financial supply

This paper introduces a new composite index – the financial supply index (FSI) – measuring the level of supply of foreign capital to small open economies. FSI is estimated on a sample of 11 EU new member states (NMS) applying Kalman filtering, principal components and variance-equal weights. Results indicated that the main drivers of financial supply to NMS are externally determined, with economic sentiment and business climate in the Eurozone carrying the highest weight. FSI proved to have a good predictive power for debt inflow dynamics. In addition, we create a new indicator – the Refinancing Risk Ratio, which relates the supply and demand for foreign capital – to quantify the external refinancing conditions and risk faced by the government. We distinguish between two recent episodes of high refinancing risk – one during the global crisis, and the other during the European sovereign debt crisis – but the episodes significantly differ in nature.     

European financial crisis and bank productivity: evidence from Eastern European Countries

The paper examines the productivity levels of the largest banks operating in the Eastern European countries over the period of the ongoing European financial crisis. Specifically, the analysis covers the periods of U.S. subprime crisis, the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. By adopting a fully nonparametric framework, it provides a probabilistic version of a directional input-oriented Malmquist productivity index alongside with its main decomposition. The results from the analysis suggest that banks have faced a deterioration of their productivity levels between the examined periods. It is evident that during the initiation of European sovereign debt crisis, the banks have weakened their ability to utilize efficiently their inputs of production and their ability to realize scale economies.     

Developing countries’ financial vulnerability to the eurozone crisis: an event study of equity and bond markets

The global crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of developing countries to shocks from advanced economies. Just a few years after the global crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has emerged as the single biggest threat to the global outlook. In this paper, we apply the event study methodology to gauge the scope for financial contagion from the EU to developing countries. More specifically, we estimate the responsiveness of equity and bond markets in developing countries to global crisis period and eurozone crisis news. Overall, we find that whereas global crisis period had a consistently negative effect on returns of equity and bond markets in developing countries, the effect of eurozone crisis news was more mixed and limited.     

Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area

We study the effects of the announcements of ECB asset purchases and of financial stability measures in the euro area in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis on 10-year government bond term premia in 11 euro area countries. We find that the term premia of euro area countries with higher sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign CDS spreads, decreased more in response to the announcements of asset purchases and financial stability measures. Term premia of countries with lowest sovereign risk either increased as in Germany, or were not significantly affected or fell slightly, as in the Netherlands and Finland.     

Bringing Balance to the Force? A Comparative Analysis of Institutionalisation Processes in the G20’s Mutual Assessment Process and the EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure

Events from 2008 onwards have bought the old consensus on the sound money and finance paradigm (the ‘Great Moderation’) into bold relief. One manifestation of this crisis of belief is the increased focus on global imbalances, institutionally reflected in the creation of the Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) at the G20 level and subsequently the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) at the European Union (EU) level. Comparing both newcomers to international macroeconomic policy coordination, this article analyses four features that shape (and we show, institutionalise) the process of paradigm contestation: presence, position, promotion and plausibility. We argue that although initially the G20’s MAP scored higher in terms of presence, position and promotion, it is the EU’s MIP, which heralds a more substantial shift in macroeconomic management. Collectively, both indicate the increased prominence of global imbalances as the subject of inter- or supranational management, and a broadening of the notion of necessary or legitimate economic governance.     

Rules and risk in the Euro area

We show that stronger fiscal rules in Euro area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress. Using a unique data set of rules-based fiscal governance in EU member states, we estimate a model of sovereign spreads that are determined by the probability of default in interaction with the level of risk aversion. The legal base of the rules and their enforcement mechanisms are the most important dimensions of rules-based fiscal governance.     

国际经济格局变动中的区域主义发展新趋势

本文研究指出全球化再造过程中新区域主义的特点和发展趋势,以及由此引发的学术界研究方法的巨大变革和对世界经济格局变动的影响,通过对美墨加协定、下一代欧盟复苏计划、东亚一体化RCEP协定的研究,论证了区域主义和全球化之间的关系,研究RTA本身与WTO是否一致,梳理并分析区域贸易协定是全球自由贸易的绊脚石还是垫脚石的争论,得出北美和欧盟的区域主义是全球化的“绊脚石”,更多是替代作用且具有防御性,而东亚的区域主义则是全球化的“垫脚石”,发挥互补作用且具有开拓性,RCEP在内容上是WTO的升级版,在范围上是WTO的降级版,中国未来在WTO改革、全球治理和人类命运共同体构建方面将担负更大的使命,通过新区域主义的形式推进全球化治理与改革,从“外围”走向“中心”。