一个森林保险模型及最优免赔额的确定

提出一种带有绝对免赔额和共保条款的森林保险模型。基于保险公司和投保林主均为风险厌恶型以及足额保险的假设,研究了共保条件下森林保险最优免赔额的确定问题。研究发现:1)对高低风险两种类型的投保林主来说,不同的免赔水平会对保险公司的行为产生不同影响;2)如果保险公司是风险中性的,最优保险合约下最优免赔额的确定完全由一阶条件决定。研究结果有助于设计出合理的保险合约。     

我国洪水保险中的风险评价方法探讨

以洪灾风险模型、抗灾性能模型为基础,建立工程项目的毁损率与频率关系。对工程保险标的进行期望损失值计算与风险成本收益分析,以此为据对工程项目进行风险分级评价,形成较为系统的洪水保险风险分级评价方法。     

洪水灾害的风险特征及保险制度设计

随着经济社会的快速发展,洪水灾害带来的经济损失越来越严重。在厘清洪水灾害风险的高危险性、承载体的强脆弱性以及可保性的基础上,从洪水保险的风险主体、资金筹集、费率计算与调整、洪水保险的再保险制度4个方面设计洪水保险产品。洪水保险兼具时间和空间维度上的风险分担性,完善洪水保险相关立法、建立洪水保险组织机构、构建多元资金筹集体系、推进洪水保险风险证券化、强化洪水保险制度监管有助于推进洪水保险制度的设计与发展。     

洪水风险保险市场失灵研究

从供给和需求两方面分析了洪水风险保险市场失灵的原因:在供给方面,保险公司的组织结构、盈利水平、其他保险组合、财务杠杆、个人保险和单位保险业务的比例、公司规模、公司对风险厌恶程度以及洪水风险本身特征等,会对保险公司是否愿意提供洪水风险保险产生不同的影响;在需求方面,从三个角度,即心理抵触机制、个人对风险的感知以及慈善风险,来论述洪水风险保险需求不足的原因.针对洪水风险保险市场失灵的原因,提出解决洪水风险保险市场失灵的对策:政府需要积极干预甚至主导洪水风险保险市场.     

天津市蓄滞洪区保险机制建设探索

针对我国洪水灾害频繁出现,洪水保险制度尚未正式建立,相关的政策法规体系还不够完善的现状,借鉴国内外洪水保险工作经验,对天津市蓄滞洪区的洪水保险问题进行分析,提出了天津市蓄滞洪区洪水保险机制建设的具体的措施:完善法律法规体系建设;组建专门的管理机构;建立多层风险分担机制;开展洪水风险图的研制和蓄滞洪区保险试点工作等.     

对我国如何开展洪水保险的思考

简述洪水保险的必要性：开展洪水保险可以弥补工程措施的有限性;开展洪水保险可以合理调配防洪建设的资金投入。从美国洪水保险制度的成功经验中得出启示：开展洪水保险必须是全国性的、强制性的;开展洪水保险必须是非盈利性的;开展洪水保险必须有法可依;开展洪水保险要将洪水风险图的研究与绘制做到先行一步;要加强宣传洪水保险。     

我国农村居民洪水保险需求影响因素的实证分析

本文分析了农村居民个人特征、家庭经济状况、地区特征、对保险及洪水保险认知与评价、对洪水风险的态度、政府的灾害补偿额度等因素对洪水保险需求意愿的影响；通过Logistic回归模型的估计，评价各因素对洪水保险需求的影响，实证检验表明，农村居民对洪水保险的兴趣、所属流域地区、政府参与、潜在保险产品需求以及政府的灾后补偿额度等因素对我国农村居民的洪水保险需求均有显著影响。     

试论中国的洪水保险

介绍我国洪水保险的几种类型：综合型洪水保险、定向型洪水保险、专业型洪水保险以及政策型洪水保险，提出做好洪水保险工作的建议：制定《洪水保险法》作为《防洪法》的配套法规，依据《洪水保险法》制定《国家洪水保险计划》，建立中央与省(自治区、直辖市)两级洪水保险基金，国家洪水保险计划的扶持对象主要是农民和中、小乡镇企业，洪水保险在实施之初，应实施低保量，低限额和建立健全洪涝灾害风险评价与核灾体制。     

淮河行蓄洪区洪水保险及其启示

洪水保险是现代社会中发展起来的一种分担洪水风险的模式，是洪水管理的重要组成部分，是人与自然和谐共处的有效实现形式。当前我国加快完善社会主义市场经济体制，建设小康社会，应当积极创造条件，开办洪水保险事业，根据淮河行蓄洪区洪水保险试点经验，探讨可能采取的洪水保险模式。     

农业保险中农户与保险公司之间的博弈分析

文章从期望效用理论与完全信息静态博弈理论角度,剖析农业保险各组成要素之间的关系,并建立博弈模型定量分析农业保险。在对农业保险进行分析时,分别对无政府介入的纯商业保险与政府介入的政策性农业保险进行了详细的模型定量分析,从而为农业保险的制度设计奠定了基础。     

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.     

Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes

The generalized expected utility model is fitted to U.S. farm data to estimate farm operator's time preferences and risk attitudes. The estimated farmer's utility parameters are quite 'reasonable' and exhibit high accuracy. The forward-looking expected utility model is soundly rejected in favor of the generalized expected utility paradigm. Importantly, the generalized expected utility model is also found to fit the data better than the myopic model typically used to study agricultural production under risk. Finally, U.S. farmers' relative aversion to risk appears to have diminished significantly over time.     

Evaluating the Potential of Index Insurance Schemes to Reduce Crop Yield Risk in an Arid Region

We evaluate yield risk reduction through weather index, area yield index and farm yield insurance contracts for wheat farms in Kazakhstan by employing data from 1980 to 2002. We use the usual mean variance (MV) approach and also a second‐degree stochastic dominance (SSD) criterion. While MV is not necessarily consistent with the expected utility (EU) theory, SSD results only in a minimum but EU‐consistent benefit from insuring. Differences in the estimation results for both approaches underline the advantage of applying both criteria to analyse the risk‐reducing potential of crop insurance. Bootstrapping results show that none of the analysed insurance schemes provides statistically significant risk reduction for every single farm. In addition, weather‐based index insurance is found to provide less risk reduction than area yield insurance based on the rayon (county) yield. Moreover, rayon yield index insurance can reduce yield risk more effectively for Kazakhstan's wheat producers than farm yield insurance with a low strike yield.     

Consistency of risk premium measures

This research uses the results of a series of within‐sample experiments to elicit risk premium measures from agricultural producers. Results show that there is little consistency between measures in different contexts and using different elicitation methods, suggesting that underlying risk preferences are not consistent. These results highlight some of the difficulty with expected utility theory and risk measurement.     

Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior

Despite extensive study, researchers continue to search for consistent and reliable measures of risk preferences to explain market behavior. We find that a measure, combining experiments rooted in expected utility theory and measures derived from surveys, explains spot and contractual sales, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than its underlying components. Survey‐based measures are generally more significant indicators of marketing choices, but experimental measures reveal how risk attitudes vary over a range of probable outcomes, which is important in light of increased commodity price volatility. Given recently identified limitations on the applicability of expected utility theory, we suggest that researchers include survey methods to obtain low‐cost supplemental measures.     

TREATMENT OF RISK IN A CROP PROTECTION INFORMATION SYSTEM

The importance of risk in a farm-level management information system designed to help farmers make spraying decisions relating to leaf rust of barley is examined. Using utility functions which were elicited for a small number of cereal growers, and probability distributions of yield losses generated using the information system, it was found that strategy assessment using the criterion of maximisation of expected monetary value or the criterion of maximisation of expected utility could be expected to lead to identical recommendations in most years, for a wide range of risk attitudes.     

Choice of utility function form: its effect on classification of risk preferences and the prediction of farmer decisions

In applications of expected utility analysis, researchers are confronted with a choice among several utility functional forms. Subjective utility values and probability distributions for price and yield were elicited from Sri Lankan producers of minor export crops. Exponential quadratic and cubic utility functions were estimated. The choice of functional form was found to affect both the classification of risk attitudes and the prediction of harvesting strategy. The exponential function was the best predictor of harvesting strategy because it was the best predictor of mature harvesting. All three functions were equally poor predictors of premature harvesting.     

Share Tenancy, Ownership Structure, and Prevented Planting Claims in Crop Insurance

A conceptual model based on opportunity cost and expected utility principles establishes linkages between the likelihood of prevented planting claims in crop insurance and existing share leasing arrangements/internal farm business structures. Results of heteroskedastic probit estimation procedures indicate that simpler internal business structures and more dominant farmer–tenant leasing position can increase the probability of submitting a prevented planting claim.     

A Simple Duality Model of Production Incorporatin Risk Aversion and Price Uncertainty

Proceeding within the framework of a linear mean-variance utility function, this paper outlines a duality model of production that incorporates risk aversion and price uncertainty. In contrast to risk models based on an expected utility function, this model provides a practical alternative to standard duality models for econometric research.     

Effect of yield and price risk on conversion from conventional to organic farming*

Although the benefits of organic farming are already well known, the conversion to organic farming does not proceed as the Dutch government expected. In order to investigate the conversion decisions of Dutch arable farms, a discrete stochastic dynamic utility‐efficient programming (DUEP) model is developed with special attention for yield and price risk of conventional, conversion and organic crops. The model maximizes the expected utility of the farmer depending on the farmer’s risk attitude. The DUEP model is an extension of a dynamic linear programming model that maximized the labour income of conversion from conventional to organic farming over a 10 year planning horizon. The DUEP model was used to model a typical farm for the central clay region in the Netherlands. The results show that for a risk‐neutral farmer it is optimal to convert to organic farming. However, for a more risk‐averse farmer it is only optimal to fully convert if policy incentives are applied such as taxes on pesticides or subsidies on conversion, or if the market for the organic products becomes more stable.