Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

Adoption of Biotechnology in Thailand and the Threat of Intellectual Property Piracy

The King, upon a representation from His Subjects in the West Indies, that the introduction of the Bread Fruit Tree among them would be a Universal good to constitute an article of food…
I was therefore directed to sail forthwith … for the Society Islands …
And there … to procure of the Natives as many Plants as I could stow on board Ship.
… I was to proceed … to St Vincent, one of the Windward Islands, and depositing One Half of my Plants there, I was to go immediately to Jamaica.
William Bligh
Captain of HMS Bounty, 1789     

An Economic View of the Debate on Farm Size in Saskatchewan: A Comment

In a recent paper in this Journal, Jensen (1984) continues the debate on farm size in Saskatchewan. In particular, he considers the relationship between farm size and efficiency "… to determine if it is necessary to have fewer and larger farms in order to gain cost efficiency …" Attention is focused on the notion of returns to size and the vehicle for analysis is estimates of long-run average cost (LAC) curves. Individual farm data are used for different farm types in the two years, 1977 and 1980. Equations are fitted to each farm type in each year. Hence, each estimated equation is based on cross-section data. The conclusion drawn from this analysis is that, "… at the frontier, constant returns to size are the norm in Saskatchewan agriculture" (p. 199). Moreover, "Governments could consider removing policies which favor large units …" (p. 198).     

The trade distorting effects of export refunds: The case of beef exports to Africa

The usual sale of European agricultural products to Africa using export refunds has been heavily discussed in recent decades. At the centre of the discussion are the consequences on the agricultural producers in Western and Southern Africa. There are two different points of view: On the one hand, the European Union's (EU) export policy reduces the prices on these markets and relieves high burdens on local producers; on the other hand are claims that refunds do not influence local prices significantly. Hence, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has no effect on markets of third countries, besides depressing world market prices. This paper focuses on the effects of EU's export subsidies for beef exports on its market share in several developing countries. Twenty-seven African countries were analysed using a fixed-effects model between 1988 and 2000. The results clearly show a highly significant positive impact of the export refund rate on the market and the import share. With its export policy, the EU raises its market position and edges out other competitors.     

The Potential Impacts of State Trading Enterprises on World Markets: The Exporting Country Case

Export state trading enterprises (STEs) play an important role in global agricultural trade. STE behavior has significant implications for world food markets, irrespective of whether or not these markets are inherently competitive. Previous literature has suggested that STEs have market power and can earn oligopolistic rents. We find there is no compelling empirical evidence to support this argument. However, we show the cross-commodity effects of export STEs can disrupt competitive world markets, through offering an implicit export subsidy to a downstream industry.     

A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports

A structural time series model is used to determine the dynamic characteristics, forecasting properties, and policy implications of factors affecting the US broiler export market. The emphasis is on international market responsiveness. The analysis indicates that in addition to the explanatory variables a trend component has been vital in the expansion of the broiler industry during the study period. The results indicate that export markets are more price responsive than the domestic markets, that interventions in the Canadian and Mexican markets reduce their imports, and exchange rate changes have significant impacts on US exports.     

World market integration for export and food crops in developing countries: a case study for Mali and Nicaragua

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).     

中国水产品出口贸易流量与潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究

中国作为世界上最大的水产品生产国,近30年水产品出口一直保持增长,在全球水产品市场中的比重大幅度增加,同时面临着与其他国家同业间的竞争。本文运用拓展的引力模型对1999年～2007年中国水产品出口相关的面板数据进行了实证检验,并对主要出口市场水产品贸易潜力进行了测算与分析。研究表明,引力模型只能对中国水产品出口贸易流量和潜力起到部分的解释作用,虽然中国水产品出口对欧美日等市场呈现出所谓的“过度贸易”,对泰国、印度尼西亚等表现为“贸易不足”,但这一总体趋势不会有太大改变。另外,进出口市场之间的产品竞争程度、进口市场的消费习惯也是进出口贸易可能的影响因素。     

Forecasting Market Share for Non-Traditional Agricultural Exports

Economic and financial feasibility of projects that are being presented for potential funding by financial agencies depend, among others, on the soundness of assumptions made about the niche in the market which the contemplated enterprises are to fill. This type of market share forecasting is particularly hazardous for entrepreneurs in less developed countries (LDCs), who aim at penetrating export markets for non-traditional agricultural commodities. In this article the author: (a) reviews the methodology used by an Uruguayan enterprise, which decided to export summer citrus to markets in the Northern Hemisphere; (b) shows how these procedures for market share forecasting could be readily adapted to preparation of feasibility studies for enterprises aimed at penetrating export markets for other non-traditional products; and (c) explores the macro-marketing implications of the case study for off-season export of fresh produce from the Southern Hemisphere to consumer centers in North America, Western Europe and Japan.     

基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分,近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势,系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法,基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据,将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应,然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现,出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素,而市场扩展效应不明显;比较而言,出口价格效应相对稳定,而出口数量效应波动较大;不同时间段首要驱动因素不同,2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素,而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素;中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格,导致出口数量出现下降态势,出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场,积极开拓发达国家市场;丰富产品出口结构,弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。     

China's booming livestock industry: household income, specialization, and exit

China's production of livestock products has generally kept pace with her rapidly increasing demand. Over-supply and market corrections for various livestock products took place over the latter part of the 1990s and large numbers of householders exited this type of production. Using household survey data, we estimate the relationship between a household's specialization in livestock production and household net income in 1995, and use a logit model to explore some predictors of household exit from livestock production over the following decade of market instability. We conclude that specialist livestock households with access to necessary skills, technologies, and markets increase their incomes from further livestock specialization in the base year, whereas those to whom livestock production is relatively unimportant can increase household incomes by diverting their resources away from animal husbandry. It was specialist rather than diversified livestock households that tended to bear the brunt of the adjustment to unfavorable price movements over the decade post-1995. Policy concerns include the exit of larger-scale specialized producers who tended to earn relatively high household incomes in 1995, barriers to the effective formation and operation of horizontal and vertical integration options to help mitigate market instability, the further development of insurance programs and markets for livestock producers, and development assistance to livestock households that for various reasons cannot increase scale and specialization.     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

Pricing-to-market in NSW rice export markets

The Ricegrowers' Cooperative Limited is a single-desk seller of NSW Japonica rice on the export market. Confidential monthly price data supplied by the Cooperative were used to examine 'pricing-to-market' in four of its major export markets. The hypothesis of a competitive market was rejected. The Cooperative has been able to vary mark-ups over different markets and with respect to the importer's currency in each market. The exchange rate results in particular suggest that the Cooperative has been able to exercise market power to obtain price premiums.     

Small-Ruminant Marketing in Southwest Nigeria

This paper describes the structure of the small-ruminant trade in southwest Nigeria, analyses the factors determining the price of animals, and examines the relationship of prices between markets. Animals imported from the north dominate the sheep and goat trades, and supply and prices are highly seasonal. However, multiple regression shows animal prices to be largely predictable in terms of the characteristics of the animal (breed, sex and live-weight) and the market in which it is sold (location and month of sale). Prices are relatively closely correlated between markets over time, and price relationships between markets reflect the respective structures of the trade in northern and southern animals. Price margins between markets reflect the level of traders' commission and storage costs in addition to the direct costs of transport. The study concludes that there is no evidence for market inefficiency or segregation, and that there is considerable market potential for increased local production of sheep and goats. In policy terms, the market's efficiency implies that government involvement beyond its present, limited facilitative role would not be justified.     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.     

Livestock and land share contracts in a Hindu society

This article examines factors related to a livestock rental market in western Nepal and assesses whether this market is associated with caste differentiation and land rental market participation. Theoretical models for asset‐rich (i.e., high‐caste) households, rich in land and livestock, and asset‐poor (i.e., low‐caste families) households are presented to provide logical explanations for the existence of a livestock rental market and the synergy between livestock and land rental markets participation. A combination of double hurdle models and bivariate‐ordered probit models were used to test the implications of the models. Consistent with the theoretical models, land‐ and livestock‐rich high‐caste households were more likely to rent out land and/or livestock, whereas land‐ and livestock‐poor and credit constrained low‐caste households were more likely to rent livestock and land from others. Participation in the two markets was positively correlated, indicating a synergistic relationship that may be due to production and transaction costs reducing benefits. Policies that can enhance the allocative efficiency of livestock and land rental markets can improve equity as well as efficiency of land use in Nepal. Provision of livestock credit to land‐poor low‐caste households is also crucially dependent on their access to more long‐term contracts for land.     

中国苹果加工产业发展趋势分析

得益于资源优势和成本优势,中国苹果加工产业发展迅速,正由产能扩张向提质竞争过渡。综合产业发展和市场变化判断,加工产业发展的基本趋势是行业整合加快,产业布局向原料产地集中;受成本和出口价格快速增长、国际市场需求不足、贸易壁垒增强等因素影响,中国浓缩苹果汁出口约束增强。中国苹果加工产业应以转型升级为发展契机,通过行业整合、优化产业结构,建立、健全出口产品的质量标准体系和应对国际贸易壁垒的市场预警机制,积极开拓新兴市场。     

中国水生蔬菜出口市场集中度和依赖度分析

[目的]水生蔬菜作为我国区域性特色明显的优势农产品,出口创汇能力强。以莲藕、芋头和荸荠为主要研究对象,分析其出口规模、产品结构和市场分布,可全面把握中国水生蔬菜的出口市场形势,有助于防范出口市场风险,以便更好地推进中国水生蔬菜出口市场的进一步优化。[方法]文章通过测算市场集中率和依赖度系数,对2012—2021年中国水生蔬菜的出口市场集中度与依赖度进行分析。[结果]中国水生蔬菜出口市场集中度高,由高到低依次为芋头、莲藕和荸荠;出口依赖性强,其中莲藕对马来西亚、日本、美国的市场依赖性强;芋头对日本、美国的市场依赖性强;荸荠对马来西亚、新加坡和越南的市场依赖性强。[结论]基于研究结果和发现,提出拓展新兴市场、提升质量标准、延长产业链条等建议,以降低水生蔬菜出口风险、提升国际竞争力,推动中国水生蔬菜更好地发展。     

中国畜产品出口贸易效率及潜力研究——以“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家为例

目的 文章分析了中国对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家畜产品出口贸易效率及贸易潜力,以挖掘贸易潜力,推进双边畜产品贸易发展和畜牧产业合作。方法 运用2001—2020年面板数据构建随机前沿引力模型,测度中国对沿线国家畜产品贸易效率及潜力,并对经济规模、对外投资、地理位置等影响因素进行实证分析。结果 中国与沿线国家的经济发展水平、中国对外投资、是否加入WTO都对中国畜产品出口沿线国家有显著正向促进作用,而沿线国家的政治稳定程度和畜牧业发展水平则对中国畜产品出口该地区有抑制作用。结论 中国对沿线国家畜产品出口的贸易效率极不平衡,对亚欧经济带国家的出口效率远高于中亚及环中亚经济带;畜产品出口贸易潜力从高到依次为环中亚经济带、中亚经济带和亚欧经济带,其中,对亚美尼亚、哈萨克斯坦、阿富汗和伊朗等中西亚国家的畜产品市场潜力极大。我国应积极推进经济走廊的建设,完善自身贸易环境,以在“一带一路”倡议下提高中国畜产品出口贸易效率,释放贸易潜力,推动双边贸易的有效发展。     

Testing for Processor Market Power in the Markets for Cattle and Hogs in Canada

Deviations of livestock input prices from processor marginal value product are usually interpreted as an indication of the application of market power by the meat packing industry. However, market power depends on economic conditions that can influence the behavior of meat packers in the market for cattle and hogs. An industry-level translog profit function is applied to data on the Canadian finished cattle and hog markets and industry-wide oligopsony market power functions are estimated. The estimates suggest beef packers exercised a small but sustained amount of market power in the Canadian finished cattle market from 1978 to 1997. This is not the case in the market for hogs, which was competitive from 1960 to 1997. Application of market power in packers'purchases of farm animals decreased with increases in the utilization of domestic supply of slaughter animals and with increased levels of livestock exports. Livestock productivity increases appear to have significantly enhanced oligopsony power in packers'purchases of farm animals. The analysis suggests that beef processors may exert market power when cattle prices are relatively higher.