我国高新技术上市公司R&D投资的融资约束——基于规模和所有权的实证分析

构造了高新技术上市公司R&D投资的融资约束模型,利用2008—2011年我国沪深两市A股高新技术上市公司的财务数据,从R&D投资对现金流的敏感性的视角,实证分析了高新技术上市企业R&D投资面临的融资约束,并进一步按企业规模和所有权的不同将样本企业分组进行回归分析。研究结果显示:R&D投资面临明显的融资约束,依赖于企业内部现金流量;相比大型高新技术企业,中小型高新技术企业的R&D投资更依赖其内部现金流量,面临更严重的外部融资困境;相比国有控股高新技术企业,非国有控股高新技术企业的R&D投资面临更严重的融资约束。提出:在转型经济背景下,我国政府应着力建设、完善与高新技术企业相匹配的多层次融资体系,缓解企业的融资约束,促进企业研发投入增加。     

Die Bedeutung der Lager für die Konjunktur

Summary The aim of this paper is to collect disaggregated data on inventories in Austria. This information is used to study the role of inventory investment in business cycles. It seemed especially interesting to investigate whether entrepreneurs plan a stable inventory-sales ratio and whether inventories of purchased goods, goods in production and goods for sale are influenced by the same factors.It turns out that the aggregate inventory-sales ratio (in current prices) decreased considerably during the past twenty years. This decrease was caused only by different rates of price increases; measured in constant prices, the rate remained almost constant. Inventories exhibit a procyclical behavior, with inventory investment leading and inventory stocks lagging.For industry investment in stocks of purchased goods depends on outstanding orders and on imports, for goods in process on orders, production and on stocks of finished goods (positively). eterminants of finished goods inventories are sales and capacity utilisation (positive sign); entrepreneurs therefore increase their stocks in boom phases and decrease them in times of slower demand. This is exactly the behavior which a previous theoretical paper expected: Inventories don't act as a buffer over the cycle, quite the contrary, inventory planning reinforces economic fluctuations.     

投资者情绪对科技型企业R & D投入不足的校正效应

从自由现金流和股权融资约束出发,基于中国科技型上市企业2009-2016年面板数据分析投资者情绪对R&D投入不足的校正效应。研究结果表明：投资者情绪对科技型企业R&D投入不足具有校正效应;股权融资约束越小,投资者情绪对科技型企业R&D投入不足的校正效应越明显;自由现金流对校正效应的影响显著。通过企业异质性检验发现,国有、成熟、大型科技型企业的自由现金流会削弱投资者情绪对R&D投入不足的校正效应;非国有、年轻、中小科技型企业受到的股权融资约束越小,投资者情绪对R&D投入不足的校正效应越显著。     

融资约束对制造业产出的抑制性影响分析

融资约束究竟会对中国制造业产出带来多大的抑制效应,一直是学术界关注的问题。分别从企业外部融资利息支出占现金流的比重、内源资金积累的自由现金流和由企业资产和成立年限构建的SA指数这三个维度,考察我国制造业面临的融资约束及其对企业产出的影响。实证结果显示,融资约束抑制了我国制造业的产出水平。利息支出占现金流比重的增加将导致我国制造业产出下降;同时,企业产出与自身积累的自由现金流显著正相关;而SA指数每增加一个单位将导致企业产出下降1.15%。分行业来看,融资约束对企业产出的制约在技术密集型行业表现得尤为显著,对于其中的典型行业——通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,产出的下降比例最高;分所有制来看,融资约束对国有企业产出的抑制效应虽然为负,但并不显著,而融资约束却能显著降低民营企业的产出水平。     

Finance constraints or free cash flow?

It has long been argued that firms prefer internal to external finance for funding investment. Modern literatures in industrial organization, macroeconomics, and finance argue this preference is caused by information asymmetries. There are, however, important disagreements about the effect of the asymmetries. Asymmetries may lead to binding financing constraints, or they may allow managers to use free cash flow for unprofitable projects. Each model predicts a different relationship between investment and changes in debt finance and this paper estimates this relationship using firm-level data. The principal findings are that both financing constraints and the agency costs of free cash flow affect investment in a manner consistent with a life cycle model of the firm.     

Financial constraints on investments: A three-pillar approach

Recent theoretical analyses demonstrate how informational asymmetries between financiers and investors may generate credit rationing and positive cost differentials between external and internal financing sources. The traditional empirical approach used to test for the presence of financing constraints at firm level is based on two pillars: a priori identification of relatively more financially constrained firms and econometric estimation of an investment demand function. This approach has been seriously questioned due to several methodological problems. This paper intends to amend it by adding a third pillar: the informational content of direct revelation through qualitative data. The paper estimates a reduced form investment equation following the Euler equation approach, and combines a priori information and direct qualitative information to consistently estimate for each firm the probability of being financially constrained. Our main finding is that when financially constrained firms are properly identified, the neoclassical model is rejected only for unconstrained firms. This indirectly rescues the validity of the Euler equation approach. Moreover, financially constrained firms show a positive correlation between investment and lagged cash flow.     

上市公司现金股利决策同群效应研究——基于董事连锁视角

文章以2014—2018年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了公司现金股利决策的同群效应存在性,并将公司在同行业中兼任的董事作为现金股利决策信息的传递渠道,探究同业董事连锁对此效应的影响及其情景异质性和价值效应。研究发现:上市公司现金股利决策存在明显的同群效应;公司董事同业兼任会传递相关决策信息,从而显著强化现金股利决策的行业同群效应;在董事连锁下,高竞争性行业公司、融资约束较大及国有性质的公司未表现出股利同群效应行为,而低竞争性行业公司、融资约束较小及非国有性质的公司表现出更为显著的股利同群效应行为,而此效应给公司带来的价值效应是呈倒U型的。公司的现金股利决策应当结合自身实际科学合理制定,以实现利益相关者价值最大化。     

不确定性、融资约束与企业投资新特点——基于上市公司的实证研究

利用我国证券市场制造业2001-2006年的数据,在考虑现有上市公司特点和证券市场及其他经济环境特点的基础上,对不确定性和融资约束与中国企业投资关系进行检验,结果显示:加速模型对企业投资行为有较强的解释作用;内部现金流和不确定性对企业投资有明显影响,且两种因素对投资的影响具有相互加强的作用;规模和国有股权比例高未必有利于企业融资;国有股比例越高,企业规模越大,投资对不确定性敏感性越大.因此,应该营造公平的融资环境和稳定的经济环境,尤其是短期市场的稳定性;应注意现阶段大型企业和国有股份程度高的企业的反直觉特点.     

Credit constraints and productivity of SMEs: Evidence from Canada

To what extent firms are constrained by external credit is usually unobserved in commonly used firm-level data. We use a survey of financing among Canadian small and medium-sized enterprises to measure the likelihood of a firm being constrained by credit. We find that firm size, current debt-to-asset ratio and cash flow are robust indicators of being financially constrained, while long-term debt to asset ratio is not a significant indicator of credit constraints. We then estimate the firm-level total factor productivity, taking into account the measured credit constraints. Omitting credit constraints leads to an upward bias of productivity estimates, by 4 percent. In addition, we find no strong evidence that suggests credit constraints lead to slower productivity growth. Finally, we confirm that both investment and employment growth are negatively affected by the measured credit constraints.     

货币政策、实际控制人类型和房地产上市公司现金持有水平变化

现金持有水平变化是货币政策对企业融资和投资行为影响的映射。本文以房地产上市公司为研究对象,引入实际人控制人类型和企业成长性变量,测度货币政策对房地产企业的影响,发现房地产企业的现金持有水平随着货币政策紧缩程度的变化而变化,当货币政策趋于从紧时,外部融资约束增强,企业会提高现金持有水平,因此我们从微观上可以拒绝房地产市场货币政策无效的断言。另外,实际控制人类型和企业规模在增加现金持有的路径选择上存在显著差异,国有企业的现金持有水平受货币政策影响程度小,低成长性房地产企业也是如此,这种现象的存在消弱了货币政策在房地产市场的调控效果。     

火电项目融资的现金流量风险评价——基于探索图的指标体系

已有关于火电项目风险的研究基本未重点考察现金流量风险。本文从火电项目融资的角度出发,发现现金流量风险的重要性,尝试性地运用复杂科学管理系统思维的工具——探索图,为火电项目的建设期、试生产期和生产运营期分别建立风险评估指标体系,并用动态模糊评价方法确定每期和全过程的现金流量风险程度,为火电项目融资决策提供依据。     

融资约束、再融资能力与现金分红

文章将2008年关于上市公司现金分红的新规定作为公司再融资能力下降的外部冲击,检验再融资能力的下降对上市公司现金分红的影响。通过两次差分法(DID)比较研究新政对具有不同融资约束公司现金分红的不同影响,结果发现再融资能力的下降使得上市公司现金分红显著减少。新政颁布后,有融资约束的公司显著增加了现金分红;而新政颁布前,有融资约束的公司现金分红显著低于无融资约束的公司,文章的证据支持现金分红可作为区分国内上市公司融资约束的有效指标。     

An empirical analysis of excess interbank liquidity: a case study of Pakistan

We investigate the drivers of excess interbank liquidity in Pakistan, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach on weekly data for December 2005 to July 2011. We find that the financing of the government budget deficit by the central bank and nonbanks leads to persistence in excess liquidity. Moreover, we identify a structural shift in the interbank market in June 2008. Before June 2008, low credit demand was driving the excess liquidity holdings by banks. After June 2008, banks’ precautionary investments in risk-free securities drive excess liquidity holdings. Monetary policy is less effective if banks hold excess liquidity for precautionary reasons.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下企业现金持有的预防价值研究

最近爆发的新冠肺炎疫情牵动着亿万民众的心,面对突如其来的疫情,企业资金面临着巨大压力。企业持有现金主要源于预防和交易动机,然而预防动机的特性决定了其在企业正常经营状态下难以直观体现,因而目前鲜有研究对企业现金持有的预防价值进行直接检验。本文以新冠肺炎疫情事件的冲击为研究切入点,通过考察不同现金持有水平的企业在面临危机冲击的市场反应,发现企业现金持有水平与事件窗口期内的累计超额收益率呈显著正相关关系,从而为现金持有的预防价值提供了更为直接的经验证据。而且,当公司受疫情冲击程度越大时,二者之间正相关关系越强。进一步发现,企业现金持有的预防价值在企业现金流压力大以及外部融资环境较差时更加凸显。本研究丰富了已有关于现金持有预防价值的相关文献,并对政府与企业应采取何种举措以应对突发事件具有一定的启示。     

银行竞争对制造业上市公司融资约束的影响研究

本文研究了银行竞争程度的变动对制造业上市公司融资约束大小的影响。本文将我国制造业A股上市公司作为样本,建立多元回归模型验证银行竞争形势的加剧是否会影响企业所面临的融资约束。本文认为制造业A股上市公司面临显著的融资约束,而且银行竞争与企业所面临的融资约束之间呈现U型关系,即随着银行竞争的加剧,融资约束呈现先放松后收紧的趋势。     

Educational Financing and Lifetime Earnings

This paper formulates and estimates a dynamic programming model of optimal educational financing decisions. The main purpose of the paper is to measure the effect of short-term parental cash transfers, received during school, on educational borrowing and in-school work decisions, and on post-graduation lifetime earnings. The estimated parameters of the model imply that parental cash transfers do not significantly influence post-graduation lifetime earnings. Long-term factors such as family background and prior human capital investments are more important. Parental cash transfers do, however, significantly determine the decision to borrow or work during school and the level of lifetime consumption.     

A note on optimal capital stock and financing constraints

There is a robust literature on the relationship between financing constraints and real investment. Little has been said on the relationship between financing constraints and capital stock in the long run. This note focuses on this last issue. To keep the model tractable, we assume that the firm employs a single input, and this input is used as collateral. We get three main results. Firstly, we show that the optimal capital stock chosen by a firm is affected by financing constraints even when they are slack at the current time. Secondly, we show that the net present value of the potentially constrained firm is always smaller than the one of the never constrained firm. Finally, we find that in the presence of latent financing constraints the firm does not limit itself to reducing its investment when the upper limit is reached. What it actually does is to lower its long run optimal capital stock, amplifying the effects of constraints in the long run.     

中国企业投资与内部融资敏感性影响因素分析——来自中国制造行业上市公司的证据

以中国制造行业的上市公司为样本，研究投资一现金流敏感性的影响因素结果表明：投资支出对现金流很敏感，以企业规模作为度量融资约束的变量，未能支持融资约束影响投资与现金流敏感性的观点，以股利支付率作为度量融资约束的变量，检验结果为融资约束越强，投资与现金流敏感性程度越高的观点提供了证据。投资一现金流敏感性主要是信息不对称引起的融资约束所致。     

On the Separability of Real and Financial Decisions

The financial manager faces two basic problems: first, the firm’s investment or capital budgeting decision, and second, the financing decision. Capital investment and financing decisions are typically analyzed independently. Capital budgeting criteria proceeds under the simplest possible assumption about financing, namely all-equity financing. The only link between investment and financing decisions is the cost of capital. The basic idea behind Modigliani and Miller’s famous proposition I is that in perfect markets, changes in capital structure do not affect value. As long as the total cash flow generated by the firm’s assets is unchanged by capital structure, value is independent of capital structure. This paper is the first attempt to prove that leverage affects the mathematical structures of the cash flow of financing, and that different mathematical structures of financing cash flows may change the total cash flows generated by the firm or the project, thus altering the value of the firm even in perfect markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the validity of the separation rule through net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) rules, as representatives of academic and business practice, and compare their results with simulations that will include the financial decision of the firm. A singular experiment proving that we can change the IRR or NPV of an investment modifying the financial structure cannot be used to affirm a universal statement, but it can be used to show that a theory is wrong.     

Finnish GNP-series 1954/I–1990/IV: Small shock persistance or trend stationarity? Some evidence with variance ratio estimates

The “shock persistance” of Finnish adjusted quarterly real GNP series in logarithms from 1954/QI to 1990/QIV is analyzed using variance ratio estimators. The results indicate that the random walk component of the series is not big. The small sample properties of variance ratio estimators are studied using empirical distribution derived from simulations. The persistence measures calculated via the ARIMA modelling of the lnGNP_t series are biased upwards. The sampling properties show that the simple random walk model is not an alternative model for the lnGNP. A trend stationary alternative, an AR(2) process, gives almost the same “shock persistence” measures as the assumed unit root processes.