中国建筑业能源碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线与影响脱钩因素分析

为研究建筑业碳排放与经济增长之间的关系及影响其弹性脱钩的主要因素,建立了建筑业碳排放库兹涅茨曲线和弹性脱钩模型,研究中国建筑业人均碳排放与人均GDP之间的关系。结果表明:中国建筑业碳排放库兹涅茨曲线近年来呈"U"型右侧上升趋势,暂未符合碳排放与经济增长呈倒"U"型曲线关系的库兹涅茨假说;产业价值创造和减排弹性脱钩是实现碳排放与经济发展脱钩的主要影响因素。     

中国城乡收入差异的库兹涅茨曲线研究--基于各省份面板数据(1978-2004年)的实证分析

基于1978—2004年各省份面板数据，对全国及东中西部三大地区的城乡居民收入差异与经济增长的关系是否存在库兹涅茨“倒U”型曲线进行验证表明，全国及东中西部三大地区的城乡收入差异与人均GDP存在“倒U”型关系，全国及中西部地区的城乡收入差异与对数人均GDP存在“倒U”型关系。而东部地区为“正U”型关系。从全国范围及中西部地区，随着经济的进一步增长，城乡居民收入差异继续拉大的趋势将延续较长一段时间，但发展经济仍是第一要务。     

资源型城市大气污染物浓度的EKC特征分析——以邢台市为例

运用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论、灰色预测模型,研究邢台市2003—2014年大气中污染物浓度与人均GDP的关系,分析各污染物浓度与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨曲线特征,并对未来人均GDP和污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:大气EKC不符合倒"U"型关系,而是属于"N"型三次曲线关系。从拟合度来看,大气SO_2浓度与人均GDP的拟合度最高,其次为NO_2,最低的为PM10。说明在研究期内经济增长的一段时期内与倒"U"型关系相似,但当经济进一步发展时,大气环境质量会随经济增长而恶化。预测结果显示:大气中SO_2、NO_2和PM10年平均浓度值逐年增加。据此,文章提出有效控制邢台市大气中污染物浓度的措施,以促进该区域经济绿色健康快速发展。     

京津冀经济增长与水环境污染的实证分析

本文选取1995～2005年京津冀地区的经济和环境数据,定量分析了水资源使用量、工业废水排放量、废水中COD排放量、农药使用量、化肥施用量与人均GDP之间的相关关系.结果表明,水资源使用量、废水排放量、废水中COD排放量及化肥施用量与人均GDP之间呈U型曲线关系.农药使用量与入均GDP之间表现为较复杂的N型曲线关系.目前,北京、天津两市基本处于U型曲线的右侧,其水资源使用量及水环境污染指标呈现增长的趋势.河北省尚处于U型曲线的左侧,说明随着经济的发展,河北省的水资源使用量,水污染物排放量呈下降的趋势.     

资源型城市经济增长——资源的“诅咒”还是距离的“暴政”

从资源依赖视角来看,在非资源型城市资源依赖与人均GDP增长率正相关;在资源型城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率负相关。从各城市的地理位置来看,中部地区城市和西部地区城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现倒U型关系。但是,东部地区城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现J型关系,"资源诅咒"在东部地区城市中并没有出现。     

对外贸易和经济增长与碳排放关系研究——基于天津市实证分析

通过实证分析的方法研究1995~2011年的天津市对外贸易和经济增长与碳排放三者之间的关系。研究结论显示:对外贸易依存度和碳排放存在明显的正相关关系,天津市对外贸易依存度每增加1%,碳排放要增加0.25%。从而验证了"污染天堂假说",天津市也是属于"转移碳排放"的城市之一。天津市不存在对碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线,也就是说碳排放和人均GDP之间不存在倒U型曲线,而是U型曲线。人均GDP的拐点是在1997年,1997年之后随着天津市人均GDP的增加,人均碳排放一直在增加。     

基于VAR模型的中国农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系研究

运用VAR模型,采用1978～2010的年度数据分析了农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系,研究表明：农村金融规模、农村金融效率、农村金融结构与人均实际农业GDP之间存在长期协整关系;前期的人均农业GDP对当期GDP影响最大,前期的农村金融规模、农村金融效率和农村金融结构对当期农村经济增长存在着不同程度的影响;农村人均实际GDP与农村金融规模之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,从整体上讲,农村金融的发展有助于促进农村经济增长,但农村金融发展滞后于农村经济增长。     

产业转移、经济增长和环境污染——来自环境库兹涅茨曲线的启示

文章以1997—2015年成都市的工业废水、废气排放量和工业固体废物产生量以及人均GDP为基础,得到经济增长与环境污染的关系,从而得到产业转移与环境污染的关系。结果显示:工业废水排放量和人均GDP之间呈线性关系并以较大速率下降;工业废气排放量和人均GDP之间呈倒"N"型关系;工业固体废弃物产生量和人均GDP之间呈倒"U"型关系。结合环境库兹涅茨曲线和行业统计结果可以得到以下结论和建议:成都市大气环境保护的重心应放在严格控制废气排放大户的引进和实际排放量上;成都市在承接产业转移过程中侧重于第二产业,产业结构优化升级速度较慢;成都市在承接产业转移过程中,明显缺乏对第三产业的吸引力,缺乏高精尖的技术、人才和产业,可以充分利用高校资源,注重人才培养,采取以人才吸引产业的方式,增加对第三产业的吸引力。     

我国东部地区经济增长与环境质量间关系的实证研究

利用1997—2009年我国东部地区的经济指标、环境指标的综列数据,采用面板回归方法,分析了我国东部地区的经济增长与环境质量之间的关系。研究结果显示:东部地区的工业三废排放与人均GDP之间的关系并不完全遵循倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线规律;经济增长、产业结构、技术要素、政府干预、对外开放度等因素对环境质量的影响程度不同;产业结构调整、技术进步、对外开放均会带来东部地区环境质量的改善。     

中国CO_2排放与经济增长间关系的实证分析——基于双向分量回归模型

采用双向分量回归法探讨1985—2009年中国CO2排放与经济增长的关系,并且在模型中引入共同边界技术效率比,以解决一般固定效应模型无法捕捉不随时间变动的因素对两者间内在关系的影响这一问题。结果显示:经济发展水平越低的地区,人均GDP对人均CO2排放量的弹性系数越大;随着经济发展水平的提高,人均CO2排放量与人均GDP的关系曲线逐渐平缓,低、中收入地区的EKC不呈倒U型,高收入地区的EKC呈不明显的倒U型。     

The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.     

Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita income growth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-run growth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in principle ambiguous. A standard empirical growth model is augmented by various measures of structural change. The hypothesis that not trade per se matters, but that various types of trading activities impact differently on economic growth is tested on a sample of 45 countries (OECD members and selected Asian and Latin American countries) over the period 1981–1997. The data set comprises exports and imports for 35 manufacturing industries at the 3-digit level of the ISIC classification which are grouped according to skill intensity. The results of the dynamic panel estimation point towards a positive long-run growth effect arising from trade specialization in medium-high-skill-intensive industries. Further, important distinctions between the skill intensity of export and import patterns and their respective influence on economic development, as well as between the group of developing countries and OECD members are observed in this relationship.JEL classification: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57The author is grateful to Michael Landesmann and Robert Stehrer (wiiw), Neil Foster and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, University of Vienna), Michael Peneder (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) and two referees for valuable comments. This research is based on Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 8954, financial support by Oesterreichische Nationalbank is gratefully acknowledged.     

中国与中亚国家农产品贸易互补性的实证分析

首先运用比较优势指数对中国农产品出口中亚国家的情况进行分析,得出中国农产品总体在中亚国家不具有比较优势,但出口中亚国家的一些主要农产品具有一定的比较优势。然后,运用贸易互补性指数和贸易结合度模型,对中国农产品出口中亚国家与中亚国家进口的双边农产品贸易进行分析,得出中国与中亚国家总体农产品贸易互补性较低,但在主要农产品贸易中互补性较强且贸易结合度紧密的结论。     

中国对外贸易对经济增长作用的实证分析

采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法,分析了中国对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,对外贸易与经济增长存在长期的稳定关系,且进口的产出弹性相对较大,出口与经济增长之间存在单项的因果关系。因此,中国经济增长还是处于出口导向型的经济增长,同时在加大出口的同时,要重视进口的作用。     

中亚国家区域经济合作现状及发展缓慢的原因分析

鉴于对外贸易和区域经济合作对本国经济增长和可持续发展的重要性,中亚五国纷纷发挥各自的自然资源优势,将发展外向型经济和加强对外贸易作为经济发展战略,但总体上说,中亚区域经济合作还较为分散,尚未形成合力。中亚国家政治诉求和经济利益目标不同,相互间贸易量小且投资很少,导致中亚经济体内部经济联系减弱,加之西方大国的利益角逐和对“主权”的敏感性,这些都减缓了中亚区域经济合作的进程。     

出口市场多元化的经济增长长、短期效应——基于协整和误差修正模型的实证分析

"市场多元化战略"是我国较早提出的外贸战略.虽然短期内出口市场多元化会阻碍经济增长,但长期内对我国经济增长具有促进作用.因此,要保持我国出口收入的稳定增长,就必须继续推行并不断完善出口市场多元化战略.     

复杂技术产业追赶与国家经济发展:国际贸易视角

选取16个发达国家和12个发展中国家作为样本,利用其1992—2011年的数据,采取回归方法,分组检验了不同类别复杂技术产品出口额所占份额及其增长率对经济增长的影响。结果显示:无论是简单技术产品还是复杂技术产品,其出口增长都会促进经济增长,但是前者的促进作用存在拐点,且简单技术产品出口额增长与经济增长之间存在倒U型关系;各类产品的出口额对经济增长同样具有显著影响,且该影响不是线性的。提出中国在大力发展复杂技术产品的同时,应关注出口结构的调整,以保证出口持续促进经济增长。     

What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given structural changes in the Chilean economy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.     

Institutions,Institutionalism: 1776–1974

Since developing countries were relatively free from the trade regulations relating to export promotion policies until 1994, the northeast Asian dynamic economies could pursue export promotion policies aggressively during the period of rapid economic growth. Under the current World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are restrictions or even prohibitions on the developing countries' use of export promotion policies. One may doubt the fairness of the current WTO system, which regulates the use of export promotion policies regardless of different economic development levels. The current paper suggests various ways of allowing developing countries to develop their production capacities and exports of manufactured products. It also provides suggestions on modifying the current WTO regulations in favor of the export promotion policies of developing countries. Such special treatment of developing countries could be justified from the viewpoint of distributional fairness applied to international trade relations.     

Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified

This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export concentration measures, we present strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in conditioning the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. Indeed, the effect of openness on volatility is shown to be negative for a significant proportion of countries with relatively diversified export baskets.