Poverty-decreasing indirect tax reforms: Evidence from Tunisia

This paper proposes a methodology to identify revenue-neutral directions for poverty-alleviating tax reforms. The search for such poverty-reducing tax reforms is done “robustly” over broad classes of poverty measures and poverty lines. The methodology, which is illustrated using data from Tunisia, is of significant policy interest given the widespread use of commodity subsidization and taxation in developing and developed countries alike. The results suggest that Tunisian poverty could be decreased robustly by following reform directions that are often at odds with frequently-heard views. They also highlight the importance of stating clearly under which set of ethical criteria the desirability of potential indirect tax reforms is assessed. JEL Code D12 ⋅ D63 ⋅ H53 ⋅ I32 ⋅ I38     

Redistributive impact of indirect tax reforms: Greece, 1988–2002

This paper assesses the distributional impact of indirect taxes among Greek households between 1988 and 2002, a period that coincides with the introduction of significant reforms in the tax system due to EU membership. The highly differentiated indirect tax structure prevailing at the beginning of the period had distributional benefits over the more simplified 2002 tax structure. The overall inequality of the after‐tax welfare distribution has increased by 6–12½ per cent and changes in the indirect tax system seem to explain about half of this increase. The paper also applies a recent method of measuring the distributional impact of relative price changes caused by changes in tax rates of commodities (Newbery, 1995) and establishes that indirect tax reforms introduced since 1988 had an adverse impact on the distribution of purchasing power, which nevertheless seems to be very small.     

From the global income tax to the dual income tax: Recent tax reforms in the Nordic countries

The paper discusses the recent drive toward a system of dual income taxation (DIT) in the Nordic countries. The pure version of this system combines progressive taxation of labor and transfer incomes with a proportional tax on income from capital at a level equal to the corporate income tax rate. The paper considers the motives for the introduction of this new income tax system, ranging from abstract theoretical arguments to very pragmatic considerations. While the Nordic DIT system violates the principles of the conventional personal income tax, it is argued that it may in fact be more in line with the philosophy of a true Haig-Simons comprehensive income tax. It is also suggested that the DIT system may cause fewer distortions to resource allocation than the conventional income tax. On the debit side, the paper points out several practical problems of taxing income from small enterprises under the differentiated income tax.     

Imperfect competition,indirect tax harmonization and public goods

This paper shows that the welfare implications of indirect tax harmonization in a two-country imperfectly competitive framework, are, in general, indeterminate in the presence of public goods: Both countries can be made either worse off or better off. This holds under both the destination and origin principles of taxation and is in sharp contrast to existing results where revenue effects are not present. A consequence of this indeterminacy is that a precise evaluation of tax-harmonizing policies under both tax regimes requires an explicit consideration of the underlying preferences for private and public goods as well as the oligopolistic sectors’ relative cost structures. JEL code F15⋅ H21⋅ H41⋅ H87     

The incentive to locate a multinational firm: The effect of tax reforms in the United Kingdom

The advent of the single European market has focused attention on the structure of international tax incentives for the location of multinational business. Multinationals that channel foreign income through the United Kingdom have been likely to suffer double taxation in the form of surplus advance corporation tax when they subsequently distribute the income to a foreign parent. This paper shows that the 1993 U.K. tax reforms create a significant reduction in the tax cost of locating in the United Kingdom, relative to traditionally favorable tax regimes such as the Netherlands.     

Aggregating risk capital, with an application to operational risk

We describe a numerical procedure to obtain bounds on the distribution function of a sum of n dependent risks having fixed marginals. With respect to the existing literature, our method provides improved bounds and can be applied also to large non-homogeneous portfolios of risks. As an application, we compute the VaR-based minimum capital requirement for a portfolio of operational risk losses. JEL Classification G20 · 60E15 · 91B30     

Microstructures,financial reforms and informational efficiency in an emerging market

This paper investigates the effects of microstructures and financial reforms on time-varying informational efficiency in an emerging equity market setting. Our data comprises of firm level data from the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange, over the period 1990–2013. Using a dynamic panel regression framework while controlling for firm size, we find that microstructures, specifically liquidity, volatility, automation and the number of shareholders have an important role in influencing the time-varying efficiency of this emerging market. The financial reforms, namely liberalisation and regulation are not found to have a notable influence. We also consider heterogeneity at the firm level, finding that the microstructures of the banking firms listed in this market have a greater impact on market efficiency, in relation to the other listed firms.     

L-performance with an application to hedge funds

This paper introduces a new parametric fund performance measure, called the L-performance. The L-performance is an alternative to the Sharpe performance, which is commonly used in practice despite its inability to account for skewness and heavy tails of unconditional return distributions. The L-performance improves upon the Sharpe measure in this respect. Technically, it resembles the Sharpe measure in that it is defined as a ratio of the first- and second-order moments, which are the trimmed L-moments instead of the conventional (power) moments. The trimming parameters allow for focusing the L-performance on specific risk levels of interest, according to financial risk criteria. For illustration, a set of L-performances is computed for a variety of hedge funds. The empirical study shows the use of L-performance for fund ranking and return smoothing (manipulation) control.     

Development and validation of an improved DeLone-McLean IS success model - application to the evaluation of a tax administration ERP

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is critical to an organization’s success. However, the factors that contribute to the success and usage of these ERP systems have received little attention. This study developed and validation of an improved DeLone-McLean IS success model. Additionally, we examined the factors which influence ERP system usage, employee satisfaction, information quality, service quality, and system quality, as well as the factors that influence the system’s overall success. The proposed model is based on a mixed-methods case study (MM-CS). The results show that the proposed model significantly measures the success of an ERP system. The organizational climate, the information quality, the system quality, and the service quality all have an impact on the usage of an ERP system. The proposed model also shows that the use of an ERP system, training and learning, and the three information (IS) quality constructs are all significant predictors of user satisfaction. The results also indicate that gender and years of ICT use on the path of ERP users have a moderating effect on the relationship between teamwork & support and use.     

Modeling the macroeconomic effects of AIDS, with an application to Tanzania.

The 1956 Solow growth model is expanded to study the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the growth path of the economy and per capita GDP (gross domestic product). AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios are compared analytically and via simulations based upon Tanzanian demographic and macroeconomic data. The 1st section discusses various channels through which AIDS might affect the macroeconomy and describes its expected demographic impact in Tanzania. The model incorporating these key channels is then developed in the 2nd section. It is employed specifically to discuss the likely effect on the ratio of capital to labor and on output per capita as the economy moves from a no-AIDS situation toward a new steady state in which AIDS is assumed to be endemic. A simple simulation model in the 3rd section forecasts the time paths of macro aggregates in Tanzania as the prevalence of AIDS increases. These time paths are then compared with simulated results for a no-AIDS situation to determine the severity of the impact of the disease on the growth path of the Tanzanian economy, Bulatao's 1990 demographic scenarios are input in the simulated version of the model. The 4th section concludes by considering the policy implications of the analysis. The analysis indicates that without decisive policy action AIDS may reduce the GDP of Tanzania in the year 2010 by 15-25% over what it would be if AIDS did not exist. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0-10% by the year 2010.     

Modelling multiperiod patterns in stock-market reactions to events,with an application to serial acquisitions

In event studies, the now standard window of a few days may miss relevant price movements if the market’s reaction to the news announcement tends to be slow or if the initial reaction tends to be partially or wholly undone afterwards. We propose a parsimonious hybrid of splines and Almon lags to detect and classify various patterns of post-event reactions spread over many periods. The scheme can interact with one or more event characteristics (like deal size), and the resulting non-linear model can be estimated via maximum likelihood (ML).In our application, we study the returns pattern that follows takeover announcements by two leading serial acquirers, AB Inbev SA and Heineken. Our method confirms the presence of a drop-and-recovery pattern as reported in Doan and Sercu (2021), but the amplitude of the pattern shows no link with deal size. This last finding is not in line with the view that the pattern reflects a rise in uncertainty that is slowly resolved (Malatesta and Thomson, 1985).     

Re-assessing the merits of measuring tax evasion through business surveys: an application of the crosswise model

Self-assessments by respondents in surveys are often the only available measure of tax evasion in developing countries at the microeconomic level. However, they suffer from the reluctance of respondents to reveal their own illicit behavior. This paper evaluates whether this weakness of self-assessments can at least partially be overcome through a novel questioning method, the crosswise model, which allows estimating the prevalence of tax evasion, but not identifying whether the individual respondent engages in tax evasion or not. Using evidence from Serbia, we show that crosswise model-based estimates of the share of firms which significantly underreport sales exceed those obtained from conventional methods by around 10 % points or more. With respect to wage underreporting to evade payroll tax and social security contributions, we do not find differences. These results appear to be robust to a number of modifications, and we explore various potential causes that lead to these results.     

Latent liquidity: A new measure of liquidity,with an application to corporate bonds

We present a new measure of liquidity known as “latent liquidity” and apply it to a unique corporate bond database. Latent liquidity is defined as the weighted average turnover of investors who hold a bond, in which the weights are the fractional investor holdings. It can be used to measure liquidity in markets with sparse transactions data. For bonds that trade frequently, our measure has predictive power for both transaction costs and the price impact of trading, over and above trading activity and bond-specific characteristics thought to be related to liquidity. Additionally, this measure exhibits relationships with bond characteristics similar to those of other trade-based measures.     

Multi-dimensional contracts with task-specific productivity: an application to universities

Academics produce science and teaching which requires specific unobservable characteristics. Applying the multi-dimensional screening methodology of Armstrong and Rochet (European Economic Review, 43, 959–979, 1999), it is shown that universities optimally propose a menu of contracts to academics: high powered incentives for those who are productive and lower ones for other agents. In some cases, the university can write a single contract for both tasks to increase production. An academic is then expected to produce more teaching to show that she likes science, which is an argument to produce science and teaching in a single institution: universities. These results are discussed in light of economic, sociological and educational literature.      

Robust effects of a debt-financed tax cut in an economy with incomplete markets

International Tax and Public Finance - We propose a two-period pure-exchange economy with spot and nominal security markets and a government that enacts a debt-financed tax cut in the first period...     

Conditionally fitted Sharpe performance with an application to hedge fund rating

We define a battery of Sharpe performance measures, which differ by the information taken into account in their computation, but also by the potential use of the fund by the investor. Four advantages of Sharpe performance based rating are especially important for the investor. First, the performance measures correspond to the standard measures used for mutual funds and known by retail investors. Second, we can compare the numerical results, even if they are obtained with different assumptions. Third, the rankings are based on regression analysis and easy to compute. Fourth, we can easily use these performance measures in the design of an optimal basket of hedge funds. Finally, we can use the performance measures to partition the set of funds into homogenous segments.     

A moment inequality with an application to the central limit theorem

Abstract

Consider a sequence of independent random variables (r.v.) X ₁ X ₂, …, X_n , … , with the same distribution function (d.f.) F(x). Let E (X_n ) = 0, _E , E (?(X)) denoting the mean value of the r.v. ? (X). Further, let the r.v. where have the d.f. F _n (x). It was proved by Berry [1] and the present author (Esseen [2], [4]) that Φ(x) being the normal d.f.      

Multivariate Cox Hidden Markov models with an application to operational risk

ABSTRACT

Modeling multivariate time-series aggregate losses is an important actuarial topic that is very challenging due to the fact that losses can be serially dependent with heterogeneous dependence structures across loss types and business lines. In this paper, we investigate a flexible class of multivariate Cox Hidden Markov Models for the joint arrival process of loss events. Some of the nice properties possessed by this class of models, such as closed-form expressions, thinning properties and model versatility are discussed in details. We provide the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for efficient model calibration. Applying the proposed model to an operational risk dataset, we demonstrate that the model offers sufficient flexibility to capture most characteristics of the observed loss frequencies. By modeling the log-transformed loss severities through mixture of Erlang distributions, we can model the aggregate losses. Finally, out-of-sample testing shows that the proposed model is adequate to predict short-term future operational risk losses.     

Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for individual as well as ‘average’ models. The asymptotic as well as the exact finite-sample distribution of the test statistic, dealing with the possibility of parameter uncertainty, are established. The model averaging idea and the VaR diagnostic tests are illustrated by an application to portfolios of daily returns on six currencies, four equity indices, four ten year government bonds and four commodities over the period 1991–2007. The empirical evidence supports the use of ‘thick’ model averaging strategies over single models or Bayesian type model averaging procedures.