Post-Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Performance: Avoiding Chapter 22

Despite the long experience in the U.S. with restructuring companies in bankruptcy, there remains a persistent tendency for companies to emerge from Chapter 11 with too much debt and too little profitability. In this article, the author uses a variant of his well-known "Z-Score" bankruptcy prediction model to assess the future viability of companies when emerging from bankruptcy, including the likelihood that they will file again—a surprisingly common phenomenon that is now referred to as "Chapter 22."
The author reports that those companies that filed second bankruptcy petitions were both significantly less profitable and more highly leveraged than those that emerged and continued as going concerns. Indeed, the average financial profile and bond rating equivalent for the "Chapter 22" companies on emerging from their first bankruptcies were not much better than those of companies in default.
The authors findings also suggest that a credible corporate distress prediction model could be used as an independent, unbiased method for assessing the future viability of proposed reorganization plans. Another potential application of the model is by the creditors of the "old" company when assessing the investment value of the new package of securities, including new equity, offered in the plan.     

Earnings Management in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

We study the impact of earnings management prior to bankruptcy filing on the passage of firms through Chapter 11. Using data on public US firms, we construct three measures of earnings management: a real activities manipulation measure (abnormal operating cash flows) and two accounting manipulation measures (discretionary accruals and abnormal working capital accruals). We find that, controlling for the impact of factors known to influence earnings management and firm survival in bankruptcy, earnings management prior to bankruptcy significantly reduces the likelihood of Chapter 11 plan confirmation and emergence from Chapter 11. The results are driven primarily by extreme values of earnings management, characterized by one or two standard deviations above or below the mean. The findings are consistent with creditors reacting positively to unduly conservative earnings reports and negatively to overly optimistic earnings reports. We also find that the presence of a Big 4 auditor is associated with a higher incidence of confirmation and switching to a Big 4 auditor before filing increases the incidence of emergence.     

The Economic Impact of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy versus Out‐of‐Court Restructuring

Companies in financial distress have usually been able to choose between working out an agreement with their creditors (“private restructuring”) or entering into more expensive and lengthier formal Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. But 2015 rulings in two cases by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York may force distressed firms to enter Chapter 11 rather than seek negotiated out‐of‐court settlements. Using a large sample of U.S. companies that experienced financial difficulty during the period 2006–2014, the authors found that the companies that filed for bankruptcy and went through Chapter 11 proceedings experienced significantly more job losses and reductions of economic output than companies achieving out‐of‐court restructurings, both overall and on a per‐case basis. The authors' estimates of the overall losses in output associated with Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases ranged as high as 2.3% of 2014 GDP, as compared to at most 0.3% of GDP in the case of out‐of‐court negotiations. At the same time, the authors estimate that as many as 2.2 million job losses were attributable to cases involving bankruptcies while the out‐of‐court cases were associated with the loss of at most about 300,000 jobs. But, as the authors concede, these findings are exaggerated by a clear self‐selection bias—one that stems from the well‐documented tendency of more fundamentally profitable, and hence more solvent, companies to choose private restructuring over bankruptcy. Despite this limitation, the study provides a useful point of departure for future studies that aim to quantify the costs to the U.S. economy of limiting or removing the option of companies with valuable operations but the “wrong” capital structures to work out their financial difficulties outside of the bankruptcy court.     

The Effect of Bankruptcy Protection on Investment: Chapter 11 as a Screening Device

Asymmetric information and conflicts of interest between equity and debt holders can force a distressed but efficient firm to liquidate and may enable a distressed inefficient firm to continue. In the extreme, if it is costless for an inefficient firm to mimic an efficient firm in a debt restructuring, efficient and inefficient firms are equally likely to continue or liquidate. This article shows that Chapter 11 procedures impose costs on inefficient firms that would otherwise mimic efficient firms. This separation induces voluntary filing for bankruptcy by inefficient firms and consequently enables efficient firms to continue when they would otherwise be liquidated.     

论破产清算企业的内部控制

企业内部控制无处不在,无论持续经营企业还是破产清算企业都是如此。本文以我国企业破产清算过程中暴露出的内控问题为背景,以新破产法和企业内部控制基本规范为依托,探讨了构建破产清算企业内部控制制度的必要性,总结了我国企业破产清算中所出现的问题,提出了基于广义和狭义角度的我国破产清算企业内控架构,分析了破产清算企业内部控制的主要难点及其对策。     

Employee Costs of Corporate Bankruptcy

An employee's annual earnings fall by 13% in the first full calendar year after her firm's bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex ante compensating wage differentials for this “bankruptcy risk” are up to 2% of firm value for a firm whose credit rating falls from AA to BBB, comparable in magnitude to debt tax benefits. Thus, wage premia for expected costs of bankruptcy are sufficiently large to be an important consideration in capital structure decisions.     

Estimation of Implicit Bankruptcy Costs

This paper presents a new methodology, quasilinear estimation, for efficiently estimating economic variables reflected in the prices of corporate securities. For example, ex ante bankruptcy costs are not directly observable, however, if these costs are sufficiently large, then current security prices are affected and bankruptcy costs can be indirectly measured. When bankruptcy costs and other relevant parameters are known, there are many numerical solution techniques that can be used to determine security prices. One technique, the method of lines, is compatible with quasilinear estimation, which has been employed extensively in the physical sciences for the estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. We demonstrate that quasilinear estimation is a potentially reliable and efficient technique for the estimation of corporate bankruptcy costs and the asset variance from security prices.     

Optimal Debt and Equity Values in the Presence of Chapter 7 and Chapter 11

Explicit presence of reorganization in addition to liquidation leads to conflicts of interest between borrowers and lenders. In the first–best outcome, reorganization adds value to both parties via higher debt capacity, lower credit spreads, and improved overall firm value. If control of the ex ante reorganization timing and the ex post decision to liquidate is given to borrowers, most of the benefits are appropriated by borrowers ex post. Lenders can restore the first–best outcome by seizing this control or by the ex post transfer of control rights. Reorganization is more likely and liquidation is less likely relative to the benchmark case with liquidation only.     

The Impact of Receiving Debtor-in-Possession Financing on the Probability of Successful Emergence and Time Spent Under Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

The ability to obtain financing is a critical element in attempting to successfully reorganise a firm which has declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing has become an increasingly popular method in recent years. This paper examines whether receiving DIP financing is related to successful reorganisations and a shortened duration under Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. This study finds that there is an increase in realised returns to equity at the announcement of DIP loan agreements which is positive and statistically significant. It is also found that DIP-financed firms have a reduced probability of liquidation, and shorter time spent under bankruptcy proceedings.     

Reporting Discretion and the Choice of Fresh Start Values in Companies Emerging from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Using a sample of seventy-two firms that adopted fresh start reporting upon their emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, I test whether management estimates of fresh start equity values are misstated and whether such misstatements are related to characteristics of individual firms' bankruptcy process. I predict that the reported fresh start value reflects a tension between managerial incentives to promote the acceptance of the plan of reorganization, and incentives to enhance future reported performance. I test whether the tendency to overstate the fresh start equity value is increasing in factors affecting the acceptance of the reorganization plan (i.e., bankruptcy claimants' relative bargaining power) and decreasing in factors affecting postbankruptcy reported performance (i.e., the probability of future losses). I find that, relative to the market value of equity immediately after emergence from Chapter 11, the fresh start equity value is, on average, understated by about 4%. The difference between the fresh start equity value and market value also exhibits significant cross-sectional variation (an average absolute error of 11%). Consistent with my first prediction, the misstatement is increasing in the relative bargaining power of junior claimants. In contrast to my second prediction, the misstatement is also increasing in the likelihood of future reported losses. This result suggests that firms that are more likely to experience postbankruptcy financial distress are more concerned with obtaining acceptance for their plan than with the effects of the fresh start equity value on postbankruptcy performance. Finally, I document that the misstatement in the fresh start equity value is negatively related to whether firms have undergone prepackaged bankruptcies, and positively related to replacement of a prebankruptcy CEO.     

Direct Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from the Trucking Industry

Direct costs of bankruptcy are measured for a sample of firms in the trucking industry that petitioned for bankruptcy protection from 1970 to 1985. Average direct bankruptcy costs represent 9.12 percent of the book value of total assets as of the year before filing. These costs are large compared with those reported in prior studies: 3.39 percent of book value of assets for retail firms, 4.31 percent for industrials, and .53 percent for railroads. We also find evidence of substantial economies of scale in bankruptcy costs in the trucking sample.     

Ex Ante Costs of Violating Absolute Priority in Bankruptcy

A basic question for the design of bankruptcy law concerns whether value should be divided in accordance with absolute priority. Research done in the past decade has suggested that deviations from absolute priority have beneficial ex ante effects. In contrast, this paper shows that ex post deviations from absolute priority also have negative effects on ex ante decisions taken by shareholders. Such deviations aggravate the moral hazard problem with respect to project choice—increasing the equityholders' incentive to favor risky projects—as well as with respect to borrowing and dividend decisions.     

金融资产管理公司参与问题企业破产重整的介入模式研究

金融资产管理公司参与问题企业破产重整是业界和学术界的热点研究问题。本文从共同治理理论出发并结合实践,总结归纳出金融资产管理公司介入破产重整领域的五种模式。其中,传统模式包括收购归集不良债权介入模式、共益债务介入模式和破产投资介入模式;创新模式包括受托清偿介入模式和预重整阶段介入模式。金融资产管理公司在运用不同介入模式过程中,应增强与地方政府及司法机关的沟通与合作,预判各类风险并夯实尽调工作;努力争取破产管理人身份,积极联合优质产业投资者作为重整投资人,盘活破产重整企业低效无效资产。     

Surviving Chapter 11 Bankruptcies: Duration and Payoff?

Three of the authors previously developed a model to predict the duration of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the payoff to shareholders ( Partington et al ., 2001 ). This work augments that study using a much larger sample to re-estimate the model and assess its stability. It also provides an opportunity for out-of-sample testing of predictive accuracy. The resulting models are based on Cox's proportional hazards model and the current article points to the need to test two important assumptions underlying the model. First, that the hazards are proportional and, second, that censoring is independent of the event studied. Using the extended data set, all the previously significant accounting variables drop out of the model and only two covariates of the original model remain significant. These are the market wide credit spread and the market capitalization of the firm, both measured immediately prior to the firm's entry to Chapter 11. Receiver operating characteristic curves are then used to assess the predictive accuracy of the original and extended models. The results show that Lachenbruch tests can provide a misleading indication of predictive ability out of sample. Using the Lachenbruch method of in-sample testing, both models show predictive power, but in a true out-of-sample test they fail dismally. The lessons of this work are relevant to better predicting the gains and losses likely to accrue to shareholders of companies in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and in similar administrative arrangements in other jurisdictions.     

从银行债权保护看我国破产重整批准制度

2006年8月27日, (<中华人民共和国企业破产法))的颁布,标志着我国破产程序从清算主导型向再生主导型的转变.而随着破产重整这一新制度的引入,包括银行在内的破产债权人的保护问题也被寄予了更高的期望.然而,从我国企业破产法生效至今近两年的司法实践来看,重整制度不仅没有达到其加强对债权人利益保护的立法本意要求,反而有被债务人利用成为其合法逃债依据的趋势.     

Investing in Chapter 11 stocks: Trading,value, and performance

We address questions about Chapter 11 stocks regarding their trading environment, fundamental value, and performance. First, there exists active trading for Chapter 11 stocks throughout the bankruptcy process. Second, equity value after filing is positively related to asset value, asset volatility, risk-free rate, and expected duration and is negatively related to liabilities. Furthermore, the return correlation between bankrupt stocks and their matching samples exhibits non-linearity similar to out-of-money call options. Third, investing in Chapter 11 stocks incurs large losses. Consistent with heterogeneous beliefs and limits to arbitrage, stocks with higher levels of information uncertainty and more binding short-sale constraints experience more negative returns.     

The effect of discretionary actions on small firms' ability to survive Chapter 11 bankruptcy

This paper analyzes whether judges' actions within Chapter 11 bankruptcy affect debtor firms' ability to reorganize (e.g., debt restructurings and mergers) as opposed to being liquidated in Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Our main finding is that debtor firms' control of the process, e.g., the exclusivity period, affects their ability to restructure debt. A reduction in the exclusivity period decreases the likelihood of reorganization, but increases the likelihood of deviation from absolute priority when plans of reorganization are agreed upon. An extension of the exclusivity period, however, does not increase the likelihood of either reorganization or deviation from absolute priority.     

破产企业治理结构与破产会计信息质量监控

本文以新破产法 (草案) 的基本框架为依托, 将破产企业分为破产和解企业、破产重整企业和破产清算企业三类, 探讨了不同类型破产企业的治理结构及其会计信息的特点, 提出了明确破产会计信息质量的监控目标、建立全面的破产会计制度规范、构建完整的破产会计信息质量监控体系、提高破产相关人员的综合素质等监控破产会计信息质量的基本思路。