资本账户开放对就业的门槛效应研究

文章通过理论机制分析认为,资本账户开放通过经济增长、通货膨胀和经常账户波动三个渠道对一国的就业率产生影响。鉴于此,文章使用多门槛面板回归模型,对66个样本国家进行多层嵌套分组并分析了不同类型国家资本账户开放与就业的非线性关系。研究发现:首先,资本账户开放对就业确实存在门槛效应,且在人均GDP水平、通胀水平和经常账户余额三个门槛变量上都存在显著的双门槛效应;其次,资本账户开放对就业的影响与经常账户余额之间呈现非单调的关系;最后,不同类型国家资本账户开放的就业效应存在显著差异,为了提高就业率,一些新兴经济体可以适当推进资本项目的开放,对于部分发达国家应当加强对跨境资本流动的管制,而我国则应在逐步放开资本账户的同时维持经常账户的盈余以及深化金融市场的发展。     

资本账户开放对就业的门槛效应研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章通过理论机制分析认为,资本账户开放通过经济增长、通货膨胀和经常账户波动三个渠道对一国的就业率产生影响。鉴于此,文章使用多门槛面板回归模型,对66个样本国家进行多层嵌套分组并分析了不同类型国家资本账户开放与就业的非线性关系。研究发现:首先,资本账户开放对就业确实存在门槛效应,且在人均GDP水平、通胀水平和经常账户余额三个门槛变量上都存在显著的双门槛效应;其次,资本账户开放对就业的影响与经常账户余额之间呈现非单调的关系;最后,不同类型国家资本账户开放的就业效应存在显著差异,为了提高就业率,一些新兴经济体可以适当推进资本项目的开放,对于部分发达国家应当加强对跨境资本流动的管制,而我国则应在逐步放开资本账户的同时维持经常账户的盈余以及深化金融市场的发展。     

资本账户开放对全要素生产率的影响:考虑金融危机因素的跨国实证研究

文章借助83个国家1996～2011年数据,并基于拓展的"处理效应"模型将资本账户开放可能引致金融冲击这一因素纳入资本账户开放影响全要素生产率的检验模型,重点考察了资本账户开放对一国全要素生产率增长率的整体影响。实证结果表明:虽然资本账户开放增加了经济体出现系统性银行危机的概率,进而对一国加总的生产效率造成一定的负面冲击,但是资本账户开放会更多地通过改善国内金融市场上资本的配置效率促进全要素生产率的提升。总体而言,在考虑金融危机因素的情况下资本账户开放影响经济体全要素生产率的净效应显著为正,以Kaopen指数衡量的资本账户开放程度每增加1个单位,全要素生产率增长率提高约0. 638%。在我国传统的资源驱动型经济增长模式难以为继的情形下,进一步扩大资本账户开放对实现从资源投入转变为生产率提高的经济增长有重要作用。     

资本账户开放、金融发展和经济金融不稳定的国际经验分析

本文构筑横截面和面板数据模型研究资本账户开放、金融发展对金融不稳定和国内资本产出率的影响。结果显示,资本账户开放,尤其是发展中或转型国家的资本账户开放,会使一国的金融稳定状况恶化。资本账户开放对国内资本产出率没有直接的正面促进作用,但通过促进金融发展,它可能会促进国内资本产出率的提高。金融发展对国内资本产出率的影响是一个复杂的过程。在短期内,金融发展反而可能对国内资本产出率有一定的负面作用。资本账户开放因此会带来双重风险,所以我们在推进资本账户开放时,必须保持谨慎、有序和渐进性,并且必须同其他改革特别是金融改革相配套。     

资本账户开放的经济基础条件分析

一国的初始条件对资本账户开放效应有显著门槛作用,文章构建反映金融发展和制度质量综合影响的经济基础条件变量,通过跨国数据实证分析发现,经济基础条件对资本账户开放的经济增长效应不仅存在门槛效应,而且金融发展和制度质量的不匹配也不利于发挥资本账户开放的积极效应,同时门槛值在不同阶段是动态变化的,存在着逐步上升的趋势,因此对资本账户开放的门槛条件不应静态看待。我国晚一步开放会提高对国内金融发展水平和制度质量的要求,因此要对资本账户开放的时间成本进行考虑。在提高经济基础条件并推动其协调发展的基础上,应制定经济政策和建立资本流动管理框架来规避资本账户开放带来的风险,并在实践过程中与对外开放政策进行相机调整。     

人民币国际化程度决定因素实证分析

本文选取了1999—2014年人民币、美元、欧元、英镑和日元国际化程度的面板数据构建多元线性回归模型,从经济实力、资本账户开放程度、币值稳定性以及金融市场发展程度四个方面进行了实证分析,通过GLS和因子分析得出以下结论:经济实力是影响货币国际化程度差距的最重要的原因,其次是资本账户开放程度;币值稳定性和国内金融市场发展程度对人民币国际化有正向作用,但影响并不是很显著;不同主体间国际化程度差距影响因素存在个体差异。     

影响资本账户开放策略选择的因素——金融稳定的视角

金融稳定下影响资本账户开放策略选择的关联因素分析是目前国内外文献的研究热点。本文构建一个包含资本账户开放、金融稳定、国内储蓄率、对外债务履约状况、公众对金融体系的信心、金融深化以及消费不均等程度等诸多因素组成的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体金融开放的相关因素。综合研究成果表明,资本账户开放在某种程度上会导致金融风险的上升。一国较低的储蓄率以及对外债务状况的恶化则会加剧开放引致的金融风险,而金融深化与消费水平不均等程度的改善以及公众对金融体系信心的提升在一定程度上都会有效增强开放进程中经济体的金融稳定程度,进而实现占优策略均衡。值得注意的是,本文提出了中国存在针对金融开放进程进行重新再思考的现实必要性。     

资本账户开放的门槛效应及路径研究

文章基于70个国家面板数据,实证检验了开放资本账户的增长效应。研究结果表明,资本账户开放具有国别差异,高收入国家开放资本账户的增长效应显著大于中低收入国家。在引入制度质量、货币政策、财政政策、对外开放度和金融发展5个初始条件指标建立动态门槛模型,研究发现,资本账户开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的,初始条件较低时资本账户开放不利于经济增长,当初始条件越过门槛值后,资本账户开放表现出积极的增长效应。结合跨境资本异质性和门槛效应,进一步发现开放直接投资的门槛最低,经济效应最大;开放债务投资的门槛最高,经济效应最小;开放股权投资的门槛效应介于前二者之间。经验分析为中国资本账户开放条件以及路径提供了参考。     

政治稳定性影响货币国际化的机制研究北大核心

传统观点认为,货币国际化是由经济因素决定的市场化过程,中国政府推动人民币国际化的模式则没有历史先例。国际政治经济学通常强调国家和政治因素对货币国际化具有重要推动作用,但缺乏相应实证支撑。鉴于此,作者以政治稳定性为切入点,探讨了政治因素对于货币国际化的作用,发现政治稳定性不仅直接影响国际货币发行国和使用国对该货币的支持程度,还通过货币信心渠道、金融市场发展渠道和资本流动渠道影响了该货币国际化水平。政治稳定性上升可以降低货币发行国的通货膨胀和汇率波动,增强货币信心和金融市场发展水平,增加资本管制政策的独立性,进而推动货币国际化水平。在此基础上,作者将国内冲突、国际冲突和政治风险指数作为政治稳定性的代理变量,使用中介效应分析方法研究了政治稳定性对1970—2020年美元、欧元、日元、英镑和瑞士法郎等国际储备货币份额的影响。研究证实了政治稳定性影响货币国际化的理论,并发现政治稳定性更多通过影响金融市场发展水平和资本账户开放度以影响货币国际化水平。上述结论对于协调政治稳定与经济发展之间的关系、全方位多角度推进人民币国际化具有重要启示。     

财政赤字、经常账户与政府债务研究——李嘉图等价视角的国际经验分析

本文使用42个发达工业化国家和新兴经济体国家2000～2010年的经济数据,采用面板门槛模型估计不同国家财政政策对经常账户的影响,检验李嘉图等价效应成立的条件。估计结果显示,财政政策与经常账户表现出"双赤字"现象,但政府债务规模对消费与投资的扭曲作用使得财政赤字与经常账户又呈现非线性关系。同时,较高的税负水平对财政政策效果的影响是导致李嘉图等价效应成立的重要条件。本文的结论表明,我国长期实施的扩张性财政政策对经常账户平衡的不利影响已经开始显现。因此,实施审慎的宏观财政政策、降低税负水平对维持经常账户平衡和经济健康发展具有重要的战略意义。     

金融生态理论视域下农村金融新体制构建探讨

金融生态理论视域下农村金融新体制,按市场原则运行,区域间的资金自由流动由金融生态的质量决定。中国经济运行的市场化程度越深,经济制度的越趋于成熟完善,资金流动与金融环境两者间的互动、互补关系就越紧密;尤其是金融环境对区域间资金流动的决定性作用越来越明显。本文通过论述金融生态理论,分析了我国农村金融体制的现状,提出了构建我国农村金融新体制的建议。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the influence of institutional quality, trade openness and financial liberalisation on financial market development, using data from 27 economies (the G-7, Europe, East Asia and Latin America) during 1980-2001. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that real income per capita and institutional quality are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development and capital market development. The trade openness, however, is more prominent in promoting capital market development. In terms of financial liberalisation, the empirical results suggest that domestic financial sector reforms tend to promote banking sector development, whereas stock market liberalisation is potent in delivering stock market development. Nevertheless, the financial liberalisation programmes are more responsive in developed economies.     

国家能力重塑与基础设施崛起——助推市场孵化的中国经验

基础设施是任何国家孵化市场所必须的先行资本,但并非所有国家都有能力为市场体系建设提供高质量的基础设施。文章首先从对市场主体的孵化、引导资本流动和促进市场体系纵深发展等方面总结基础设施对于市场孵化的普遍意义。然后以部分代表性国家为例,论证基础设施质量的差异主要来源于其国家能力的差异。最后在国家能力理论框架下,提出了中国从计划经济向市场经济转轨的"国家能力重塑"一般框架,辨析改革开放以来,以"学习能力、财政能力、法治能力"构成的三大国家能力具体的阶段性重塑过程,及其为中国市场孵化提供基础设施的成功实践。     

Identifying Financial Distress Indicators of Selected Banks in Asia

The banking sector plays a pivotal role in the economic development of most Asian countries. In 1997, a full-fledged banking and financial crisis took place in South Asian countries. Many banks had to be bailed out by their governments. It is believed that an examination of indicators that led to the problems suffered by banks in this region will be of enormous benefit. Models were developed for each country that identified banks experiencing financial distress as a function of financial ratios. The countries in the study include Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand. The banking sectors of these three countries are ideal for this study, as the banks enjoyed profitability during the pre-crisis period and were the most severely affected by the financial crisis in 1997. Logistic regression was used to analyze the data sample from 1995 to 1997. In the findings, capital adequacy, loan management and operating efficiency are three common performance dimensions found to be able to identify problem banks in all three countries. It is hoped that the financial ratios and results of the models will be useful to bankers and regulators in identifying problem banks in Asia.     

Financing and monitoring in an emerging economy: Can investment efficiency be increased?

This study investigates the influence of the financial system on firms' investment efficiency in China. For this purpose, we employ country level data of capital markets and financial institutions along with financial data from 2797 Chinese firms in the period from 1998 to 2015. The firms are priori classified into four groups, by high and low values of financial constraints and agency problems. Results show that financial development influences firms' investments positively either directly or by reducing cash flow sensitivity. The impact remains the same for all types of firms. Moreover, the financial structure has an impact on investment efficiency of firms; this result also remains the same even after controlling levels of financial development. Study contributes that capital market based financial structure impacts investment decisions by reducing financing constraints and agency issue due to its strong monitoring ability.     

Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets

This paper investigates the role domestic financial systems play in the effectiveness of capital flow management policies (CFMs) on the risk of over-reliance on debt. Using data from 44 emerging market countries over the period 1995—2008, we investigate the relationship between financial development, CFMs, and the share of debt in external liabilities as the measure of financial stability risks. We find that financial sector development is an important channel for the effectiveness of CFMs, and enhances the impact of different policy measures on the reduction of external debt liabilities. Our results show that CFMs are significantly more effective in curbing debt inflows in a bank-based economy but, to a lesser extent, in a market-based economy. Our findings remain robust to alternative measures of external liability structures, CFMs and financial development, and consideration of potential endogeneity.     

上海黄金交易所投资问题研究

随着世界经济的发展和货币体系的演变,黄金逐渐退出了流通领域,但其天然的特性仍决定了黄金在金融领域发挥着不可替代的作用。发达国家大多具有比较完善和成熟的黄金市场,但是在我国,黄金长期以来一直处于政府的严格控制之下,直到近年来政府才逐步放开对黄金的控制。上海黄金交易所的成立对我国黄金市场的发展、黄金投资功能的发挥起到了良好的作用,但还存在着很多不足。     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

China’s Growth,Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have reduced their current-account imbalances as a share of GDP to less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 countries over 1983–2013 confirm that the relationship between current-account balances and economic variables changed in important ways after the financial crisis. China’s rebalancing has been accompanied by a decline in its reserves-to-GDP ratio and greater outward FDI that, in turn, has mitigated reserve hoarding.     

Dealing with the Contagion： China and India in the Aftermath of the Subprime Meltdown

What began as a downturn in the US housing sector in the summer of 2007 had mushroomed into a global financial crisis by September 2008： the most severe since the 1930s. Developing countries, including China and India, at first seemingly sheltered from the worst of the turmoil, have not been immune to the contagion＇s spillover effects. What are China and India＇s precise vulnerabilities, and what can each do to better insulate their economies from the vagaries of global financial marker turmoil？ Equally important, what long-term strategies must each country adopt to make their economies more resilient to global market downturns？