Money demand and stabilisation in Zimbabwe

During the 1980s the potential instability of Zimbabwe's unsustainablyhigh budget deficit was reduced by the smooth transfer of resourcesfrom the private to the public sector via the domestic financialsystem, which affected private demand for financial assets.Import, exchange and price controls operated to suppress private-sectordemand. This led to the build-up of private savings, which wason-lent to the government via liquid asset requirements andthe crowding out of domestic deposits in the nonbank privatesector's portfolio by government securities. This article usesJohansen's procedure for analysing cointegration to model thedemand for real money balances in Zimbabwe, in order to determinethe extent to which these constraints on the domestic assetmarket suppressed the demand for money in Zimbabwe.     

Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment

Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistance has been provided and promised against the commitment of each country to fulfil certain economic policy conditions contained in the macroeconomic adjustment programme. In general, a macroeconomic adjustment is a process driven by policies but also by changes in private spending behaviour (consumption, imports, investment) and improvement in competitiveness that countries are required to undertake after a large shock. In the case of the four countries, the shock emerged as a consequence of an excessive accumulation of imbalances in different parts of the economy: in the public sector in Greece, in the housing and banking sectors in Ireland, external imbalances in Portugal and in the banking sector in Cyprus. The paper looks at the feasibility of the fiscal adjustment comparing the macroeconomic conditions in the four countries and emphasising the role of the fiscal multipliers in the process. It also assesses the fall in the output in a comparative framework, stressing the role played by the different components of demand either in amplifying the effect of the fiscal consolidation or in offsetting it. In addition, it considers formulation of the programmes as well as their implementation with most attention devoted to reforms aiming at improving competitiveness, growth and employment in the framework of a cross-country approach.     

The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?

This paper investigates what lessons may be learned from EMU for the enlargement of the euro area. It examines the situation of present and prospective EU countries in respect of nominal and real convergence. It suggests that fulfilling the EMU criteria consistently over the next few years will require huge efforts by prospective EU countries, with important output and employment losses. The possibility that present EU countries would have to bear part of these costs cannot be ruled out, with the risk of provoking tensions within the EU, in particular as regards the ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary policy decisions of the ECB.     

Money demand and monetary policy in Europe

Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Europe.—The European Central Bank will soon have to decide on her monetary strategy. This paper discusses properties of money demand functions and implications for monetary policy in a monetary targeting regime. Special attention is paid to different concepts of stability of money demand, to the length and variability of adjustment lags, and to the controllability of the money stock. At the European level, stable money demand functions are identified for M1 and M3. However, M3 appears to be less controllable than M1. Long and variable adjustment lags in the demand for M3 weaken the case for broad money as a monetary target. JEL no. E41, E52     

Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration

Many studies analyze the money demand using a (fixed coefficient) cointegrating regression model, which may not be appropriate to deal with the money demand of a transition economy like China. This paper investigates this issue using a time-varying cointegration approach based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2009. We find some interesting results: (i) the estimates of the income elasticities are between 0.60 and 0.75, which are comparable with the previous studies; (ii) the estimated interest rate elasticity supports the argument that the overall effect of the interest rate on the money holding is weak although there are some mild evidences that it has been strengthened in recent years; (iii) the substitution effect of equity asset dominates the wealth effect, especially, during the bullish market period. Our result is robust to the alternative choices of the scale or opportunity cost variables and shows that omission of the stock prices in the money demand function would possibly yield a misspecification problem.     

Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model

This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. The importance of shocks to monetary policy and oil prices is estimated to have declined in the post-1990 period, in line with the higher predictability of policy and the fall in the persistence and—to a lesser extent—variability of oil disturbances. Counterfactual exercises show that oil efficiency gains would alleviate the inflationary and contractionary consequences of oil shocks, while higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of larger inflationary pressures. While we report evidence of “countercyclical” price markups, the rise in markups induced by an oil disturbance is not found to considerably amplify the inflationary and contractionary effects of the shock. The paper discusses the policy implications of our empirical results for the euro area economy.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

Japanese money demand: evidence from regional monthly data

This study estimates the Japanese money demand function by household using seasonally adjusted panel data following Fujiki and Mulligan (Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1–2), 1996a, 1996b, pp. 65–103, 53–78). The most plausible estimates of the income elasticity of money demand are in the range from 1.28 to 1.35 for the period from 1990 to 1995. These results are robust with respect to the choice of scale variables, and consistent with the estimates based on seasonally unadjusted monthly data and annual data. The stable relationship obtained from regional panel data provides useful information with which to judge the stability of the money demand function for the central bankers.     

Monetary policy in the euro area: Was it too tight in the 1990s?

This paper studies the monetary policy in the euro area. An important question concerning the euro area is whether the monetary policy has been too tight in the 1990s and in turn, caused the high unemployment rates, in contrast to the economic prosperity and low unemployment rate of the U.S. Therefore, the authors explore what would have happened to the euro economy if the Central Banks had followed either the fixed or time-varying monetary policy rule of the U.S. The paper does find that the European central banks and then later the ECB overreacted to past inflation pressures.     

Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area

In this paper, we analyze the conduct of monetary policy under a zero nominal interest-rate bound (hereafter ZIB) in a model economy of the euro area, namely that of the Area Wide Model. The aggregate euro-area economy is modeled to have relatively sluggish adjustment properties and a private sector with mainly backward-looking expectations. For a given ZIB benchmark, we consider variations in the monetary-policy reaction function to minimize the macro-economic consequences of such a deflationary regime. We rank the effectiveness of these remedial policies using a number of metrics and relate our results to features and properties of the model economy. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 338–363.     

Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area

Using real time data from the OECD this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. The results indicate that in the so-called periphery countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) ex ante fiscal plans have been more sensitive to economic cycles in the countercyclical direction than in the other euro area countries. Accumulated debt ratios in the periphery reflect high initial debt ratios, underlying deficit biases and cumulated errors in the data on macroeconomic imbalances. Overall, reliable statistics, balanced macroeconomic developments and longer-term policy orientation are crucial for sound and sustainable public finances.     

Tests of efficiency wage theory and contract theory with disaggregated data from the U.S.

Zusammenfassung Tests der Effizienzlohntheorie und der Kontrakttheorie mit disaggregierten Daten der USA. — Der Autor testet die Voraussagen der Effizienzlohntheorie und der Kontrakttheorie, indem er den Grad der Lohnrigidit?t in sieben wichtigen Sektoren (1-stellige SIC) und 19 gewerblichen Industriezweigen (2-stellige SIC) in den USA sch?tzt. Der Grad der Lohnrigidit?t wird anhand von PhillipskurvenGleichungen, die nach Industrien disaggregiert sind und Indikatoren für die aggregierte Arbeitslosenrate sowie die Nachfrage nach den Produkten der einzelnen Industriezweige enthalten, gesch?tzt. Effizienzlohntheorie und Kontrakttheorie werden getestet, indem die Korrelationen zwischen dem Grad der Lohnrigidit?t in einer Industrie und den Merkmalen einer Industrie, die für die jeweilige Theorie charakteristisch sind, berechnet werden. Die Ergebnisse stützen stark die Effizienzlohntheorie und scheinen für die Kontrakttheorie nicht so günstig zu sein.

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Resumen Tests de la teoría del salario eficiente y de la teoría del contrato con datos desagregados para los EE UU. — En este trabajo se someten las predicciones de la teoría del salario eficiente y de la teoría del contrato a un test, estimando el grado de rigidez salarial en siete sectores importantes (a nivel de un dígito de la SIC) y 19 industrias manufactureras (a nivel de dos dígitos de la SIC) en los EE UU. El grado de rigidez salarial es estimado usando ecuaciones de la curva de Phillips desagregadas por industria, las cuales incluyen indicadores de la tasa de desempleo agregada y de la demanda de productos industrials. La teoría del salario eficiente y la teoría del contrato son sometidas a un test calculando las correlaciones entre el grado de rigidez salarial de una industria y las caracteristicas de esa industria, relacionadas con estas teorias. Los resultados dan apoyo a la teoria del salario eficiente, mas no parecen ser tan favorables para la teoria del contrato.

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Résumé Des tests de la théorie du salaire efficient et de la théorie de contrat avec des données disaggrégées des Etats Unis. — Cette étude soumet les prédictions de l’hypothèse du salaire efficient et la théorie de contrat à un test en estimant le degré de rigidité des salaires dans 7 secteurs majeurs (1-digit SIC) et 19 secteurs industriels (2-digit SIC) aux Etats Unis. Le degré de rigidité des salaires est estimé par les équations de la courbe de Phillips, disaggrégées par l’industrie, qui incluent des mesures du taux de ch?mage aggrégé et la demande aux produits des secteurs industriels. On soumet la théorie du salaire efficient et la théorie de contrat à un test en calculant les correlations entre le degré de rigidité des salaires et des caractéristiques des secteurs industriels qui se réfèrent à ces théories. Les résultats supportent principalement la théorie du salaire efficient et ne semblent pas être aussi favorables à la théorie de contrat.

     

Money in the production function: A new Keynesian DSGE perspective

This article checks whether money is an omitted variable in the production process by proposing a microfounded New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. In this framework, real money balances enter the production function, and money demanded by households is differentiated from that demanded by firms. Using a Bayesian analysis, our model weakens the hypothesis that money is a factor of production. However, the demand of money by firms appears to have a significant impact on the economy, even if this demand has a low weight in the production process.