Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada

Causal relations between the growth rates of exports, imports, and the GDP of Canada and the United States are studied using the vector error correction (VEC) model. Utilizing time-series annual data (1948-1996), Granger causality tests are performed within the framework of the VEC model. Bidirectional causality is supported for Canada from the foreign sector to GDP and vice versa. A weaker relationship between the foreign sector and GDP is statistically supported for the United States. These results are also supported by comparing the total trade (exports plus imports) shares to GDP of the two neighboring economies. The Granger causality tests suggest that Canada is a more open economy than the United States and more trade dependent.     

The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives

Four years after the introduction of the euro, this paper providesan overview of the current structure and integration of theeuro-area financial systems and related policy initiatives.We first compare the euro-area financial structure with thoseof the United States and Japan. Using new and comprehensivefinancial account data, we also describe how the euro-area financialstructure has evolved since 1995. We document the progress towardsintegration of the major euro-area financial segments, namelymoney markets, bond markets, equity markets, and banking. Finally,we discuss recent policy initiatives aimed at further improvingEuropean financial integration.     

Global Financial Crises and Time‐Varying Volatility Comovement in World Equity Markets

This paper studies volatility comovement in world equity markets between 1994 and 2008. Global volatility factors are extracted from a panel of monthly volatility proxies relating to 25 developed and 20 emerging stock markets. A dynamic factor model (FM) is estimated using two‐year rolling‐window regressions. The FM's time‐varying variance shares of global factors map variations in volatility comovement over time and across countries. The results indicate that global volatility linkages are significantly stronger during financial crisis periods in Asia (1997‐1998), Brazil (1999), Russia (1998) and the United States (2000, 2007‐2008). Emerging markets are weakly synchronised with world volatility in comparison with developed markets. In particular, emerging market comovement is significantly lower than developed market comovement during the Asian and US sub‐prime crises. This suggests a degree of decoupling of emerging markets from the global drivers of volatility during these periods.     

基于金融周期视角下股票市场的联动效应研究

世界经济全球化已成为趋势,发达经济体的股市之间以及发达经济体与新兴经济体股市之间的联动性也在经济全球化的趋势中更加紧密。各国金融领域以及金融市场间的快速融合,不断形成统一规范的金融行为准则,也使得全球金融周期性特征越来越明显。文章选取世界五个主要股票市场指数为研究对象,按照已有研究对全球金融周期的划分,将该样本区间分成了繁荣期、衰退期和正常期三个阶段,然后基于这三个阶段分析了在不同金融周期五国股票市场指数收益率联动效应。基于实证研究结论,认为美国和欧洲股市联动性较强,与亚洲股市联动性相对较弱,且美国和中国股市之间联动性最弱,基本捕捉不到下尾相关。相关实证结论有利于国际投资者的投资组合管理,也有助于各国股票市场的风险规避。     

WHO DRIVES THE RUSSIAN FINANCIAL MARKETS?

By employing the EGARCH model using monthly data from September 1995 to March 2003, we found that financial indicators from Germany rather than the United States are the main drivers of Russian financial markets. In a one‐step prediction, the fluctuations of asset returns are well predicted that the prediction errors fall within the prescribed range of the confidence bands. However, EGARCH does not necessarily dominate the benchmark prediction of the random walk model, because with Russia's financial markets constantly in transition and adjusting to frequent changes in the financial system, the usefulness of past data is diminished.     

次贷危机对我国资产证券化的启示

以美国次级抵押贷款市场为核心,一场席卷美国、日本等世界主要金融市场的风暴正在挑战金融市场脆弱的神经,在全球范围内引起了强烈震动,凸现了资产证券化的风险,对证券市场的走向也产生了一定影响。资产证券化是一种金融创新,但其本身也蕴含着风险。     

Domestic-Foreign Interest Rate Differentials: Near Unit Roots and Symmetric Threshold Models

This paper investigates the near unit root behavior of interest rate differentials across countries using a symmetric Band-TAR model that allows for a heteroscedastic error process. We find that the time series properties of monthly short-term interest differentials over the period 1974–2005 between the United States and Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom can be characterized by a symmetric Band-TAR process, which can explain its (near) unit root behavior reported in the extant literature. Results significantly reject a linear model in favor of the alternative hypothesis of a two-regime symmetric threshold model that exhibits significantly greater persistence within the threshold bands than when outside the threshold bands.     

Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe

A striking feature of international economic relations is the limited extent of intertemporal trade and risk-sharing among nations. This paper uses data on consumption, income, and production from regions of the United States to address the question of whether the limited participation of national economies in international capital markets is a fundamental aspect of economic relations among large geographic regions, or whether it is specifically an artifact of international economic relations. We conclude that capital flows among the regions of the United States are significantly larger than those across countries. However, such private markets still provide a relatively limited degree of insurance against regional fluctuations.     

信贷紧缩环境下我国农村金融市场的潜在风险及防范对策——以美国、法国为例

本文以市场经济条件下深化我国农村金融体制改革为导向,在深入探讨当前信贷紧缩政策对我国农村金融市场重要影响的基础上,分析了其可能产生的潜在风险及形成机理,进而结合美法两国调控本国农村金融市场的经验,提出了相应的防范对策。     

Benefits and Costs of Auditor's Assurance: Evidence from the Review of Quarterly Financial Statements

Even though there is a worldwide consensus as to the necessity of an audit of annual financial statements for public companies, there is divergence of views as to the review of interim financial statements. While some jurisdictions make it mandatory (e.g., Australia, France, United States), others allow the review without requiring it (e.g., Canada, United Kingdom). Using a sample of companies listed in Canada, we examine the costs associated with these reviews and the benefits they generate in terms of improvement in the quality of interim financial statements for the years 2004 and 2005. Controlling for the decision to purchase the reviews, we find that audit fees are 18 percent higher for firms with interim reviews and, contrary to many regulators' assumption, we find no evidence that this cost increase is proportionally higher for smaller firms. Regarding the benefits of interim reviews, we find no significant association between either accruals‐ or nonaccruals‐based measures of earnings management and the fact that the interim statements are reviewed by the auditor, neither in the interim reports nor in those of the fourth quarter. The results suggest that auditors' involvement with interim reports may not be as effective as previously thought at controlling the quality of interim financial statements.     

解决中小企业融资难的国际经验与对策

中小企业融资难是经济发展过程中的一个瓶颈,我国现在处于经济转型升级的发展阶段,中小企业为我国经济的发展带来了动力,提高我国经济发展的质量,有利于我国经济的持续、健康发展,但是中小企业的发展却面临着种种困难,导致我国中小企业陷入发展困境。本文借鉴美国、日本、韩国和德国等发达国家的经验,分析了这些国家在发展中小企业过程的先进经验和对策,特别是有些发达国家和发展中国家的发展情况,与我国既有类似又有差异的特征,本文进一步地结合我国中小企业的发展现状和困难,认为成立政策性金融机构、完善信用担保机制、建立民间金融机构和鼓励资本市场优势等经验都非常有借鉴意义,可以显著的提高我国中小企业的发展动力,解决中小企业融资难的困境。     

Asymmetric dynamics in stock market correlations: Evidence from Japan and Singapore

This paper uses the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006) to analyze the correlation between the Japanese and Singaporean stock markets and makes two principal findings. First, it finds that financial integration has advanced because of the Japan–Singapore Economic Partnership Agreement, thereby strengthening the bidirectional relationship between Japan and Singapore. Second, it demonstrates empirically that the weight of Asian stocks in portfolios within the Asian region has increased since the global financial crisis, again strengthening the relationships among Asian region economies.     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle

Borio et al. show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. They show that incorporating information on the financial cycle yields measures of potential output and output gaps for the United States, United Kingdom and Spain that are estimated more precisely and are more robust in real time. With its well‐developed financial markets and relatively open capital markets, the South African economy is potentially susceptible to the build‐up of the sort of financial imbalances that characterised the recent financial crisis. Using the framework developed in Borio et al., a finance‐neutral measure of the output gap is estimated for South Africa. The traditional Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended to incorporate information on credit and property prices. Including financial cycle proxies result in output gaps that are estimated more precisely and are more robust to data revisions and the arrival of new data points (i.e. estimated output gaps are more robust in real time), while also reflecting the impact of financial variables on economic activity. As such, the estimated finance‐neutral output gap seems to represent a more appropriate measure on which to base monetary policy decisions.     

A Cross‐national Comparison of R&D Expenditure Decisions: Tax Incentives and Financial Constraints*

We provide evidence on the impact of tax incentives and financial constraints on corporate R&D expenditure decisions. We contribute to extant research by comparing R&D expenditures in the United States and Canada, thereby exploiting the differences in the two countries' R&D tax credit mechanisms and generally accepted accounting principles. The two tax incentive mechanism designs are consistent with differing views of the degree of financial constraints faced by firms in these economies. Our sample also allows us to explore the effects of capitalizing R&D on Canadian firms. Employing a matched design, we document relations between tax credit incentives and R&D spending consistent with both Canadian and U.S. public companies responding as though they are not financially constrained. We estimate that the Canadian credit system induces, on average, $1.30 of additional R&D spending per dollar of taxes forgone while the U.S. system induces, on average, $2.96 of additional spending. We also find that firms that capitalize R&D costs in Canada spend, on average, 18 percent more on R&D. Collectively, this evidence is important to the ongoing debates in both countries concerning the appropriate design of incentives for R&D and is consistent with the assumptions found in the U.S. tax credit system, but not those found in the Canadian system.     

Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The recent empirical investigation of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States by Hamori [Jpn. World Econ. 12 (2000) 143] finds no evidence of asymmetry. This paper re-visits the issue of asymmetric volatility using a similar approach with some modifications. We find statistically significant evidence of asymmetric volatility in the real growth rates of the United States and Canada. As such, it may be premature to conclude that business cycle indicators generally do not exhibit volatility asymmetry.     

Comparative demographic effects of Canadian-U.S. immigration flows

"A joint study by Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of the Census examines special tabulations of U.S. residents born in Canada from the 1980 census of the United States and compares them with matching tabulations of Canadian residents born in the United States from the 1981 census of Canada. As might be expected, the two populations are remarkably similar and the preponderance of the migration flow is from Canada to the United States. The comparative social and economic characteristics of the two migrant stocks show the effects of increasing legal restrictions on migration between the two countries in the last two decades. The characteristics of the migrant flows have changed from large, unregulated population movements responding to economic motivations similar to internal migration flows to a much smaller, highly controlled movement more typical of long-distance international migration flows." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

U.S. current account debate with Japan then,with China now

This paper examines two U.S. current account deficit episodes, one in the 1980s and the other in the current 2000s, in which Japan and China, respectively, are the current account surplus countries that are criticized for contributing to the deficits. In both periods, U.S. policy makers pointed out the underdeveloped and closed financial markets of the current account surplus countries and advocated for these countries to fix the deficiencies, a position akin to the current “saving glut” argument. In both episodes, the current account surplus countries have criticized the United States for its low saving, especially public saving (the “Twin Deficit” argument). This paper presents empirical findings that are consistent with the Twin Deficit hypothesis; A one percentage point increase in the budget balance raises the current account balance by 0.10–0.49 percentage point for industrialized countries. The saving glut argument seems to be applicable only for countries with highly developed legal systems and open financial markets. While the United States has been experiencing a savings drought in both episodes, the Japanese current account surplus was driven by underinvestment in the 1980s and by over-saving during the 2000s. Furthermore, although the current Chinese current account surplus is driven by its over-saving, there is no evidence of excess domestic saving in the Asian emerging market countries; rather, they seem to have suffered from depressed investment in the wake of the 1997 financial crises.     

Accruals Quality,Stock Return Seasonality,and the Cost of Equity Capital: International Evidence

Mashruwala and Mashruwala (2011) argue that inconsistent earlier findings regarding whether accruals quality (AQ) is priced in equity markets (Core, Guay, and Verdi 2008; Kim and Qi 2010) may be explained by seasonality in returns deriving from tax‐loss selling. Finding no evidence of annual AQ premia for U.S. firms, Mashruwala and Mashruwala report that significant monthly premia concentrate in January, with the remainder of the year demonstrating negative or insignificant returns to AQ and attribute this strong seasonality to tax‐loss selling by investors, rather than information risk. However, the end of the tax year for U.S. investors coincides with the calendar year and the financial year for the majority of firms, which may suggest alternative explanations for seasonal variation in returns. We extend Mashruwala and Mashruwala's study, using an international sample including countries where incentives for tax‐loss selling exist, but in which the standard tax and financial years differ (Japan and the United Kingdom), and where the tax and financial years conclude in a month other than December (Australia), as well as employing a longer U.S. sample. We find some evidence of an AQ premium in the United States, which although dominated by January returns, remains significant annually. However, these findings are sensitive to the inclusion of low price stocks and the choice of asset pricing test. In Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia we document consistent evidence that an AQ premium exists on average throughout the year, and in samples excluding the first month of the tax year. The sensitivity of our U.S. results to the January period may reflect the conflation of numerous seasonal influences on returns, not all of which necessarily reflect mispricing.