The effects of the Kyoto Protocol on the carbon trade balance

Review of World Economics - This study presents estimates of the magnitude of carbon leakage as a consequence of emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol using gravity model-style...     

The trade balance effects of U.S. foreign direct investment in Mexico

This paper examines the effect of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico on U.S. exports to and imports from Mexico. The rise of intrafirm exports and imports following U.S. FDI in Mexico suggests that FDI affects trade flows. Empirical estimation proceeds with tests for stationarity and cointegration. The finding of cointegration among the variables leads to estimation of the hypothesized relationships with a vector error-correction model. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition reveal that FDI leads to increased exports and imports during the time period considered.     

The exchange rate and the trade balance

Exchange rate flexibility is commonly justified as an efficient method for adjusting the trade balance to some desirable net international capital flow. In this orthodox view, fluctuations in a country's terms of trade or its saving-investment balance would continually upset its balance of payments equilibrium if the nominal exchange rate remained rigid.But this prevailing doctrine favoring exchange flexibility is only correct when economies are insular, ie. have limited trade and financial arbitrage with the outside world. With the spread of exchange controls and trade restrictions in the 1930s into the 1950s, the industrial countries became somewhat insulated from each other. A devaluation could then have the conventional effect of reducing a trade deficit because monetary and exchange rate policy were separable.Among the open industrial economies of the 1980s, however, financial arbitrage is uninhibited and trade is fairly free. Monetary policy, both current and prospective, now dominates what happens to the exchange rate. Because a devaluation today reflects an easier money policy in the present, or an expected easing in the future, it no longer has any predictable impact on the monetary value of the net trade balance. Exchange rate flexibility loses its usefulness in controlling net exports while becoming highly disruptive to the economy's macroeconomic stability.For example, the American dollar's downard float over the past three years should not be (have been) expected to improve the U.S. current account. However, allowing the dollar to depreciate below its purchasing power parity greatly increases the inflationary potential in the Americian economy.     

Disentangling the impact of infrastructure on trade using a new index of infrastructure

Making use of considerably improved measures of infrastructure, the study assesses the impact of infrastructure on bilateral trade for a panel of 150 developed and emerging economies during the period 1992–2011. The authors make use of a gravity approach to disentangle the impact of infrastructure on trade and trade costs. Improving infrastructure endowments and quality decreases trade costs and increases international trade flows. Countries with improved infrastructure reduce not only bilateral trade costs but also multilateral trade costs. The decomposition of effects indicates that better infrastructure encourages higher export flows relative to domestic trade flows. Main results of the study prove to be robust, also when considering distinct trade categories (consumption goods, intermediates, and capital goods) for a smaller sample.     

Re-estimation of China-EU trade balance

Significant discrepancy exists between official Chinese and EU trade statistics on the magnitudes of the China-EU trade in goods as well as in services. While the discrepancy of China-U.S. trade surplus has been thoroughly studied by scholars and policymakers, the discrepancy of China-EU trade surplus is barely discussed in literatures. This may lead to seriously bias in understanding China-EU trade relationship, and even cause unnecessary trade friction. In this paper, we discuss the reasons behind the discrepancy of China-EU trade and quantify the extent to which the discrepancy is contributed by transportation costs, re-exports and their markups. We also employ the input-output tables of both EU and China, and measure the China-EU trade balance of goods and services in both domestic value-added (DVA) terms as well as in gross terms. The discrepancy of China-EU trade balance in goods (and services) still exists after adjustments, but is significantly reduced. With the adjustments on price and re-exports, in 2016, the discrepancy of China-EU trade in goods and services of Chinese release over EU release would shrink from an initial estimation of US$90.6 billion to an estimation of US$20.4 billion in gross terms, and further to US$15.8 billion in value-added terms.     

Interregional trade, industrial location and import infrastructure

The purpose of this study is to illustrate, with a simple two-region, two-good, two-factor model, how an improvement in one region’s import infrastructure can affect firms’ location decisions and the nature of the trading equilibrium. It is shown that, through improvements in import infrastructure, one region might divert high-tech industries to another region. This effect reduces the incentive to improve import infrastructure.     

The balance of payments approach to trade tax symmetry theorems

Zusammenfassung Der Zahlungsbilanzansatz für die Theoreme der Steuersymmetrie im Au\enhandel. — In diesem Aufsatz wird zur Symmetrie zwischen Einfuhr- und Ausfuhrsteuern zweierlei festgestellt. Erstens: Wenn man die Steuer bei allen Positionen auf der Sollseite einer Zahlungsbilanz um die gleiche Summe erh?ht wie die Zuschüsse für alle Positionen auf der Habenseite, dann ist die Erh?hung in dem Sinne neutral, da\ alle realen und nominalen Variablen unver?ndert bleiben. Diese Aussage gilt für alle Marktstrukturen, Wechselkurssysteme und Arten internationaler Transaktionen ebenso wie für den Fall, da\ viele Güter international gehandelt werden, für Z?lle, die in der Ausgangssituation gr?\er als Null sind, und unabh?ngig davon, ob die Annahme eines Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewichts gemacht wird oder nicht. Zweitens wird behauptet, da\ in plausiblen Modellen die Symmetrie auch bei unvollkommener Konkurrenz bestehen bleibt. Dies erscheint als eine nützliche Generalisierung des Lerner-Theorems, weil die logische Struktur des Theorems deutlich herausgestellt wird.

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Résumé L’approche de balance des paiements aux théorèmes des symétries de taxe sur le commerce. — Dans cet article nous nous occupons avec deux aspects de la symétrie entre les taxes importatrices et exportatrices. Premièrement, l’augmentation de la taxe sur tous les débits de la balance des paiements et de la subvention sur tous les crédits de la balance des paiements d’un montant égal est neutre sur ce point qu’elle ne change pas les variables nominales et réelles. De plus, cela est juste pour toutes les structures du marché, les systèmes du taux de change et les variétés des transactions internationales ainsi que pour le cas de plusieurs biens et des tarifs non-zéro au début et aussi indépendamment de la supposition que la balance des paiements est en équilibre. Deuxièmement, nous arguons que dans les modèles plausibles la symétrie continue d’exister mème s’il y a une concurrence imparfaite. C’est une généralisation utile du théorème de Lerner car il met en évidence la structure logique du théorème.

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Resumen: Balanza de pagos y teoremas de la simetría del impuesto sobre el commercio exterior. — En este estudio se discuten tres aspectos de la simetria entre impuestos sobre la importación y exportatión. En primer lugar, un aumento del impuesto sobre el pasivo de la balanza de pagos correspondido exactamente por un aumento del subsidio al activo de la balanza, deja todas las variables, reaies y nominales, inalteradas y es por lo tanto neutral. Esto tiene además validez para todo tipo de estructuras de mercado, sistemas de tipo de cambio, variedad de transacciones internacionales y para muchas mercaderias y tarifas iniciales que no sean nulas. En segundo lugar, se discute que la simetría permanece en presencia de competencia imperfecta en algunos modelos plausibles.

     

Determinants of services trade agreement membership

Review of World Economics - Existing literature has examined factors underlying the formation of goods trade agreements (GTA) and bilateral investment treaties but not the determinants of services...     

The utilisation of engineering services bulk infrastructure components in integrated development planning

In practice, infrastructure planning has generally tended to follow land-use planning, with infrastructure costs seeming to play no role in the generation of land-use strategies. To address this problem, a bulk infrastructure cost model has been developed to provide a tool for planners to ensure the incorporation of bulk infrastructure capacity and cost considerations into the early, land suitability assessment phase of the integrated development planning process. The output of the model is in the form of potential cost contours, which facilitates the relative comparison of infrastructure costs for different density scenarios. Bulk engineering services infrastructure relating to water, sanitation and electricity has been included in the model. The theoretical underpinning of the model is threshold analysis, and the three essential elements are threshold, density and cost. They are incorporated into the model through capacity analysis. The set density levels convert into the number of additional person units required which, in turn, is translated into infrastructure capacity demand. Existing infrastructure network and facility design capacities are compared with the current utilisation of infrastructure in order to quantify the capacity supply situation. The comparison of capacity demand with capacity supply determines whether or not additional infrastructure is required. If infrastructure is required, the required infrastructure investment is calculated. The resulting relative costs are mapped and incorporated into a wider land suitability assessment model. Infrastructure costs vary with location according to local land use, geotechnical, environmental and built conditions, making the role of the geographic information system in the model appropriate and important.     

Russian knowledge-intensive services in international trade

This paper reviews the share of the Russian sector of knowledge-intensive services in the global market. The dynamics, structure, and geography of import-export operations in this sector is analyzed. The effectiveness of measures aimed at incentivizing the Russian export of knowledge-intensive services is assessed from the perspective of foreign trade institutions and tax mechanisms.     

The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation

Cross-country differences in the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade is one reason for cross-country differences in estimated exchange rate coefficients in short-run balance of trade equations. If exports are invoiced in domestic currency while imports are invoiced in a foreign currency, a depreciation will increase the domestic currency value of outstanding import contracts, and may cause the balance of trade to fall in the short run. Countries with different invoicing patterns will have different effects on the short-run trade balance following a depreciation. We explore a simple theory of invoicing currency choice, drawing inferences regarding the likely choices for 14 countries. This allows a classification of countries according to the expected short-run balance of trade effect of a currency depreciation. Empirical estimates support the hypothesized groupings based on suggested currency invoicing patterns.     

基于面板数据的中美服务贸易收技分析

在货物贸易方面,目前中国对美国保持着巨额的顺差,但与此同时,中国在对美服务贸易收支方面却一直处于入超状态.基于服务贸易在经济全球化进程中的愈发重要性,本文利用面板数据模型对1994～2006年间中美服务贸易收支进行了分析,并进一步分析了相关影响因素对中关服务贸易收支变动的影响.     

The trade depressing and trade diversion effects of antidumping actions: The case of China

China is by far the main target of antidumping (AD) litigation for most of its major trading partners. Recently, however, China itself has started using AD instrument intensively and was, in fact, the third leading country in initiating AD investigations between 2002 and 2004. This paper empirically investigates the impact of China's AD activities on trade by employing the system GMM estimator. The empirical results show that AD protection has significant trade depressing and trade diversion effects. These findings are consistent with Prusa [Prusa, T.A., 2001. On the Spread and Impact of Antidumping, Canadian Journal of Economics 34, 591–611.] and Brenton [Brenton, P., 2001. Anti-dumping policies in the EU and trade diversion, European Journal of Political Economy 17, 593–607] that investigate the trade effects of AD actions in the US and EU, respectively.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

The spatial effects of trade openness: a survey

This paper surveys the literature on the implications of trade liberalisation for intra-national economic geographies. Three results stand out. First, neither urban systems models nor new economic geography models imply a robust prediction for the impact of trade openness on spatial concentration. Whether trade promotes concentration or dispersion depends on subtle modelling choices among which it is impossible to adjudicate a priori. Second, empirical evidence mirrors the theoretical indeterminacy: a majority of cross-country studies find no significant effect of openness on urban concentration or regional inequality. Third, the available models predict that, other things equal, regions with inherently less costly access to foreign markets, such as border or port regions, stand to reap the largest gains from trade liberalisation. This prediction is confirmed by the available evidence. Whether trade liberalisation raises or lowers regional inequality therefore depends on each country’s specific geography.     

Prices,output and the trade balance in Iran

This paper analyses the impact of the rise in oil prices on domestic inflation, the trade balance, and output growth in Iran for the period 1960–1977. A macro framework is developed in which the domestic spending of oil revenues results in higher output, inflation and imports. Our results indicate that, although the overall growth remained high, the rapid increase in oil revenues in 1973–1974 was mainly reflected in higher inflation and higher imports. In the absence of any exchange rate adjustment, there was a sharp deterioration in the competitive position of the non-oil traded sector.     

Fiscal devaluations: evidence using bilateral trade balance data

We study the effects of fiscal devaluations on the trade balances of European Union countries over the 2000–2014 period using bilateral trade balance data. This enables us to control for the coincidence of tax policy measures in different countries, which is an aspect left unconsidered in previous econometric studies. A fiscal devaluation consisting of a budget-neutral tax shift in the amount of 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) from employers’ social security contributions to value added tax leads to a short-term improvement of bilateral trade balance ranging between 0.3 and 0.6% of GDP. An extrapolation of our baseline estimate to the overall trade balance yields an impact of 4.3% of GDP for the whole sample, which is slightly higher than presented in previous empirical research. Applying extrapolation to the trade deficit countries in the euro area shows that these countries’ balance of trade with the rest of the euro area improves by only 0.75% of GDP. Thus, the magnitude of the fiscal devaluation impact on the trade balance varies significantly across countries, depending on their trade openness, among other potentially relevant factors.