亚洲区域货币合作基础上的人民币国际化问题探析

1997年亚洲金融危机、2008年的全球性金融危机使世界范围内的大部分国家受到波及,经济增长趋缓。但重压之下的中国却逆流而上,1997年和2008年的GDP增长率分别达到了8.8%和9%,为世界所瞩目。GDP的持续高增长使人民币国际化的呼声越来越高,受到众人追捧。但我国秉承稳扎稳打的原则,认为先人民币亚洲化,再以亚洲区域货币合作为基础,发展人民币国际化更符合中国实际。     

三大货币国际化给人民币国际化的启示

当前,美元本位制的国际货币体系面临严峻挑战,而中国在全球经济中的地位正逐步增强,这为人民币在国际上发挥重要作用创造了良好条件。本文通过分析三大货币国际化的发展模式,结合人民币自身发展状况,为人民币国际化找到一条更适当稳妥的道路。     

三大货币国际化给人民币国际化的启示

当前,美元本位制的国际货币体系面临严峻挑战,而中国在全球经济中的地位正逐步增强,这为人民币在国际上发挥重要作用创造了良好条件.本文通过分析三大货币国际化的发展模式,结合人民币自身发展状况,为人民币国际化找到一条更适当稳妥的道路.     

外围国货币国际化困境深层次原因探析——基于国际货币体系的视角

“牙买加体系”的内生缺陷导致美国经常账户逆差通过经常项目和资本项目的传导不断扩大,伴随其中的是美元国际货币职能的循环性强化.由于体系缺陷的内生性以及国际经济气候的紧张,外围国货币国际化的困境将持续存在.只有转变国际分工角色,以国内市场为基,减少对出口的依赖,并依靠区域合作分散风险,才是外围国货币国际化的根本途径.     

货币供应量影响因素分析

货币供应量在经济运行中扮演着重要角色,而且与通货膨胀有着密切关系。外汇储备和信贷规模被认为是影响货币供应量的主要因素。为研究其关系,本文建立模型,分析得到结论:从长期来看,外汇储备和信贷规模的确对货币供应量有影响,但外汇储备对其影响较小,而信贷规模对货币供应量有较大的正向影响。本文建议外汇储备形式要多样化,并应加大对中小企业的信贷倾斜力度。     

货币国际竞争与人民币国际化

一种货币从国内货币成为国际贷币本质上是一个国家综合实力的体现,是一国经济贸易金融发展到相应阶段的必然结果。货币参与国际竞争的过程就是货币国际化的过程,2009年7月我国政府正式启动了人民币国际化的征程。本文通过对世界主要国际货币竞争的分析,总结出决定货币竞争力强弱的主要因素,为我国人民币国际化提供启示。     

西方货币国际化理论综述

自20世纪60年代以来,随着美元霸权地位的衰落、日元国际化的推进以及欧洲货币一体化的成功进行和欧元作为国际货币的出现,货币国际化问题引起了越来越多西方学者的兴趣。对于什么样的货币能够成为国际货币、货币国际化对本国及其他国家会产生什么样的影响以及影响货币国际地位的因素等问题,西方学者从不同的角度进行了深入探讨。另外,对于国际货币之间的替代现象,学者们也通过模型分析给出了解释。     

货币国际化趋势及人民币国际化发展进程

货币国际化化如今已在世界经济全球化的背景下成为大国国际贸易与经济发展的普遍趋势,首先针对目前世界上已存在的四种广泛流通的国际货币,剖析国际货币形成的主要流程及发展阶段。与此同时,通过对比中澳两国货币近几年来的汇率变化和中国政府近期制定的外汇相关政策深入分析汇率的波动以及货币回流机制对货币国际化进程所造成的多方面影响。     

货币国际化水平的影响因素分析——来自国家层面多边数据的经验证据

本文从货币发行国与使用国角度入手,基于国家层面多边（多种货币在多个国家使用)外汇交易数据,采用货币发行分布和货币使用分布指标衡量货币国际化水平,对影响货币国际化水平的因素进行实证分析,结果表明：货币发行国的经济体量越大、金融市场发展程度越高、货币网络外部性越大,其货币国际化水平越高。同时货币发行国与使用国间汇率波动越小、贸易投资额越大、地理和文化间距离越近,则使用国越倾向使用该货币。     

An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis on the co-movement of 16 currencies in the sample. It employs a two-step atheoretic empirical methodology; it i) applies change point estimation based on geometric Brownian motion to detect change points in volatilities and ii) applies Engle's (2002) dynamic conditional correlation (DCCR) approach to estimate time varying correlations and then, observes the behavior of volatility co-movements during the periods found in (i). The results show that volatilities increase at least twofold with the outbreak of the crisis and there is an inverse relationship between volatility and the duration of the crisis. The DCCRs usually increase with the onset of the crisis and they fluctuate smoothly afterwards while keeping that increased level.     

浅析中国外汇市场的交易机制和发展

我国的外汇市场主要指银行之间进行结售汇头寸平补的市场，就是通常所说的国内银行间外汇市场。中国当前外汇市场制度在实践中尚需要进一步改进和完善。为了加快与国际接轨的步伐以及适应经济市场化的整体要求，我国都应该进一步深化外汇市场改革。     

浅析中国外汇市场的交易机制和发展

我国的外汇市场主要指银行之间进行结售汇头寸平补的市场,就是通常所说的国内银行间外汇市场.中国当前外汇市场制度在实践中尚需要进一步改进和完善.为了加快与国际接轨的步伐以及适应经济市场化的整体要求,我国都应该进一步深化外汇市场改革.     

An empirical examination of the currency denomination of trade

The currency denomination of trade has important effects on inflation and the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. This study examines the currency denomination of Italian exports and imports with countries outside the European Union during 2010. By using a unique dataset we find evidence to suggest that invoicing currencies do not always have consistent determinants. Significant effects, new to the literature, include the massive, robust effect of geography and tax treaties, which suggest the importance of information asymmetry. The distance between trading partners has one of the largest marginal effects, increasing the likelihood of vehicle currency use relative to the euro.     

An analysis of East Asian currency area: Bayesian dynamic factor model approach

There has recently been an increasing interest in the establishment of a common currency area in East Asia in the aftermath of the East Asian financial crisis. In this article I examine the desirability and feasibility of forming a currency area in the region by checking the symmetry of shocks as an important criterion of the theory of Optimum Currency Area. I employ a dynamic factor model to decompose aggregate output into world, regional and country‐specific components and estimate the model using a Gibbs sampling simulation. Persistent properties of those components are examined and variance decomposition analysis is performed to investigate the role of each component in output variance. The European Monetary Union, with the successful launch of the euro, is the natural benchmark for comparison. Based on variance analysis, it is found that East Asian countries, on average, are less plausible candidates for a currency area than European counterparts. However, a subgroup of countries in East Asia is as qualified as those in Europe. Given the ongoing integration in East Asia, it is not premature to prepare for such a currency area in this region.     

Experimental analysis on the role of a large speculator in currency crises

Corsetti et al. (2004) demonstrate that the presence of a large speculator in the foreign exchange market makes the remaining traders more aggressive in their speculative attacks. We conduct an experiment designed to test their theoretical predictions and also use the experiment to analyze an additional aspect that has not been previously covered in the literature: namely, whether the entry of a large speculator and the exit of the same speculator have the same effect in magnitude on the probability of a successful speculative attack. We obtain two main findings. First, the results support the main conclusion of Corsetti et al. (2004) that the presence of a large speculator makes other small speculators more aggressive. Second, the results suggest that the effect of the entry of a large speculator on the probability of successful speculative attacks is larger than that of the exit of the same speculator.     

The invoicing currency choice model of export enterprises assuming joint utility maximization and analysis of the factors influencing selection

Based on the assumption of joint utility maximization, an exporting currency unit pricing model was established, which consists of the local currency, producer's currency, and vehicle currency. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation and partial least squares (PLS) regression were used to analyze currency weights. Results suggest that when a producer's currency is devalued relative to a local currency, if the demand elasticity of the importer is large, the local currency will primarily be used; if the bargaining power of the importer is strong, the producer's currency will primarily be used. Among these factors, the bargaining power of the exporter has the greatest influence, followed by the demand elasticity of the importer and the exporting country's exchange rate.     

The determinants of vulnerability to currency crises: country-specific factors versus regional factors

We investigate the determinants of exchange market pressures (EMP) for some new EU member states at both the national and regional levels, where macroeconomic and financial variables are considered as potential sources. The regional common factors are extracted from these variables by using dynamic factor analysis. The linear empirical analysis, in general, highlights the importance of country-specific factors to defend themselves against vulnerability in their external sectors. Yet, given a significant impact of the common component in credit on EMP, a contagion effect is apparent through the conduit of credit market integration across these countries under investigation.     

对企业购并三个基本要素的探讨

公司购并是一个复杂的过程,涉及经济、政治、法律、文化以及历史等各方面的因素,牵涉面广,影响大,它需要企业对目标企业和外部环境和企业的状况做出综合评价和判断。国际上成功的大企业几乎都发生过多次购并活动才取得今天的规模和优势。笔者认为,购并前周密的规划、确定合理的     

Does Gender have any Effect on Aggregate Saving? An empirical analysis

This study investigates the effects of gender on aggregate saving. We test the hypothesis that shifts in women's relative income, which can affect their bargaining power within the household, have a discernible impact on household saving and, by extension, gross domestic saving, due to differing saving propensities by gender. The empirical analysis is based on panel data for a set of semi-industrialised economies, covering the period 1975-95. The results indicate that, as some measures of women's relative income and bargaining power increase, gross domestic saving rates rise. The implied gender disparity in saving propensities may be linked to differences in saving motives based on gender roles, and well as divergent experiences of economic vulnerability. These findings suggest the importance of understanding gender differences in planning for savings mobilisation and in the formulation of financial and investment policies.