被历史忽略的历史--读余世存的《非常道》

除了前门庄严的地毯,哲学还有一道晦暗的“后楼梯”;除了人来人往的议事客厅,政治还有一个鲜为人知的“后花园”;除了那能派上正经用场的石料,历史还有很多被有意无意丢弃的“边角料”。那砖石铺成的是车马大道,人人都从那儿经过,是一种“常道”,由“边角料”凑起来的当然只能是“羊肠小道”,或者叫做“非常道”了。余世存编著的《非常道》中,收集了一个多世纪里中国历史的“边角料”,带给了读者别样的惊奇。我不认识余世存,尽管早就读过他的文字,并且印象深刻。我一直认为这个使命意识超强的同时代人有着非同寻常的襟抱——这也是一种“非常道”。对他来说,     

Was wine a premier cru investment?

We investigate the case for Bordeaux and Rhone wine as an investment. The raw data analysed comprises of approx. 335,000 observations of wine sales prices and is analysed using the repeat sales regression method. General Red Bordeaux and Rhone wine indices are constructed for the period January 1996–January 2007, which are compared with each other, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and with a number of wine funds and finally with the Liv-Ex Fine Wine 100 (FW100) Index. The findings suggest that Rhone and Bordeaux wines can provide average returns in excess of risk-free investments with lower risk at index level. Individual wines and sub-regions carry higher risk than the general indices with varying return levels and so direct investment in such wine by inexperienced, low volume or individual investors carries a high level of risk. Returns on indirect investment via wine funds vary, however all average returns of funds analysed exceed the general Rhone and Bordeaux Index in this research. Volatility for some wine funds was particularly high and may not suit risk-averse investors. This is reinforced by inspection of the higher moments.     

2010年全国注册资产评估师考试工作会议召开

中评协于2010年3月11—12日在重庆召开2010年度全国注册资产评估师考试工作会议。各地方协会分管考试工作的秘书长和考试工作负责人共80余人参加会议。中评协副秘书长岳公侠出席会议并讲话,重庆市财政局党组成员、总会计师、重庆市评估协会会长祝轻舟发表致辞。     

国际评估准则委员会成功改组中评协副会长、秘书长刘萍当选管委会委员

2008年11月24日至29日,中评协与国际企业价值评估师分析师协会(IACVA)在北京联合举办了首期注册价值分析师(Certified Valuation Analyst,CVA)资格认证培训班,37名来自内地及港澳台地区机构的项目经理、评估经济、总评估师、副总经理参加了此次培训.     

资产评估准则专家讨论会召开

中国资产评估协会于2010年12月3～5日召开资产评估准则专家讨论会。会议议题是对即将发布的四项准则审议稿提出完善意见,对明年及今后一段时期的准则建设提出意见和建议。中国资产评估协会副会长兼秘书长刘萍出席会议并讲话,     

Was spricht eigentlich gegen eine private Arbeitslosenversicherung?

This article wants to base the current discussion about the privatization of unemployment insurance on a perspective of insurance economics. The arguments against private unemployment insurance are separated in two prospects: insurance technique and social policy. Therefore, the mixing of objective-technical and normative arguments, which is widely spread in the literature, is broken down. It is shown that the only criterion, which holds against private unemployment insurance, is that of “relative poorness”. Consequently, from a social policy perspective the monetary burden of actuarial premiums on people at high and medium risk is not acceptable. Arguments like positively correlated risks, moral hazard, insufficient differentiation of premiums and collectively underestimated individual unemployment risks appear to be poorly valid. As a solution of the problem of “relative poorness” a new outline for privatization of unemployment insurance is presented. The proposal focuses on a combination of private unemployment and pension insurance.     

厦门市评协组织业内人士参加厦门大学税基评估讲座

近日,厦门市资产评估协会组织厦门市资产评估行业专业人士参加了由厦门大学评估研究中心和厦门大学财政系举办的财产税基评估专题讲座。     

The Great Inflation Was Not Asymmetric: International Evidence

The rise and fall of inflation during the Great Inflation were events of approximately equal duration in developed economies. Relying on data-driven methods, this paper shows the American experience, in which inflation fell more quickly than it rose, was anomalous. This suggests that theories explaining the asymmetry in the American data may not be so applicable to a broader sample of countries.     

中评协惩戒委员会会议召开

中评协惩戒委员会会议于2010年1月23目在京召开。本次惩戒委员会会议主要议题：一是对2009年度特别团体会员资产评估执业质量自律检查拟惩戒意见进行审议;二是对财政部移交的有关专项案件进行审议。有关的检查人员、专案调查人员及相关工作人员列席会议。会议由中评协惩戒委员会主任委员张美灵主持。     

Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?

We present four stylized facts about the Dot Com Era: (1) there was a widespread belief in a Get Big Fast business strategy, (2) the increase and decrease in public and private equity investment was most prominent in the Internet and information technology sectors, (3) the survival rate of dot com firms is on par with or higher than other emerging industries, and (4) firm survival is independent of private equity funding. To connect these findings we offer a herding model that accommodates a divergence between the information and incentives of venture capitalists and their investors. A Get Big Fast belief cascade could have led to overly focused investment in too few Internet startups and, as a result, too little entry.     

ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?

Paul De Grauwe's Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi's “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries, but only during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.     

Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?

Not necessarily: a firm's fundamental value increases with uncertainty about average future profitability, and this uncertainty was unusually high in the late 1990s. After calibrating a stock valuation model that takes this uncertainty into account, we compute the level of uncertainty that is needed to match the observed Nasdaq valuations at their peak. The uncertainty we obtain seems plausible because it matches not only the high level but also the high volatility of Nasdaq stock prices. In general, we argue that the level and volatility of stock prices are positively linked through firm-specific uncertainty about average future profitability.     

资产评估行业巾帼建功表彰大会在京举办

前言：近年来,广大女评估师认真贯彻落实科学发展观,积极投身评估行业建设,解放思想,干事创业,充分发挥了“半边天”的作用,涌现出一大批先进集体和先进个人,她们立足岗位,不畏困难,勤奋工作,为促进行业发展、扩大行业影响做出了突出贡献。为表彰先进,树立榜样,经全国妇联同意,中国资产评估协会在全行业广大女评估师中开展了巾帼建功活动。经过层层选拔决定授予山西嘉正资产评估有限公司等33家资产评估机构“2008资产评估行业巾帼文明岗”荣誉称号,授予万伟等34名女注册资产评估师“2008资产评估行业巾帼建功标兵”荣誉称号．     

我国老年人与重疾患者对保单贴现的需求分析

保单贴现的出现,可以有效解决被保险人的资金需求,为年老且无劳动收入的保单持有人提供养老金。2012年6月发布的《化解国家资产负债中长期风险》研究报告预测:到2013年,中国养老金的缺口将达18.3万亿元。社保负担沉重,难以持续是一个全球性问题,届时很难指望政府解决养老问题,指望家庭也不现实。但在我国寿险快速发展的当下,建立保单贴现市场将有助于缓解社会及家庭的养老压力。另外,保单贴现还可以解决重症患者因昂贵医疗费用而无法及时得到治疗的问题。本文通过对老年人口数及30种疾病平均住院医药费用与退保金额的回归分析,说明老年人及重疾患者对保单贴现的需求,得出保单贴现在我国具有较大的潜在市场。因此,我国应尽快引入保单贴现业务。     

2009年度特别团体会员检查总结会暨培训班举办

中国资产评估协会2009年度特别团体会员资产评估执业质量自律检查总结会暨培训班于2010年1月21日至22日在北京举办.中评协副秘书长杨松堂到会并讲话,中评协监管部主任王永贞主持会议.     

全国知识产权资产评估状况调查工作汇报会在赣召开

为全面把握知识产权资产评估现状,深入分析知识产权资产评估中存在的共性问题,探寻知识产权资产评估发展举措,2009年3月30日,国家知识产权局和中国资产评估协会（以下简称中评协）在江西联合组织召开全国知识产权资产评估状况调查工作汇报会（以下简称汇报会）。国家知识产权局专利管理司司长马维野、中评协副秘书长杨松堂出席会议并讲话。     

Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period

In this paper, we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the United States, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant, we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates. We consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. One hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances (such as productivity shocks) may be a major source of exchange rate volatility.     

Was the Tax-Exempt Bond Market Inefficient or Were Future Expected Tax Rates Negative?

This paper shows that the sharp narrowing with maturity of the spread between taxable and tax-exempt yields leaves room for tax arbitrage. At times, tax-exempt forward rates have exceeded taxable forward rates. At such times, only expectations of higher taxes on Treasury than on municipal bonds would eliminate profit opportunities. The authors develop the idea of forward tax rates and compute forward tax rates for 1955 through 1984. They also outline tax-arbitrage mechanisms involving private forward sale of long municipal bonds or the use of the Municipal Bond Futures Contract and show the potential profits.     

湖北省评协召开知识产权资产评估座谈会

近日．湖北省评协召开了知识产权资产评估座谈会。会议由省评协秘书长杨晓峰主持。参加座谈会的有部分院校教授、资产评估执业人员、相关学术研究人员及协会工作人员。