论我国住房保障制度的完善

随着我国住房制度改革的深入、房价的上涨和居民收入分化的加剧,中低收入阶层的住房保障问题日益突出,住房保障制度的完善成为一个亟待解决的问题     

我国城镇保障性住房制度分析

我国从2003年以来,房屋的价格持续上涨,大多的城市房屋销售价格呈现明显上涨趋势。不断上升的房价使中低收入家庭的住房需求得不到有效的保障,因此党的十八大报告正式提出要建立将市场配置和政府保障相结合的住房制度,进一步加强保障性住房的建设与管理,尽力满足困难家庭基本需求。在十八届三中全会上也再次强调了构建住房保障体系的重要性。本篇论文将从制度经济学以及其他经济学相关理论知识对我国现在的住房保障制度进行分析,并提出相关的对策建议。     

宏观调控下的“十一五”住房市场特点及问题分析

＂十一五＂期间宏观调控始终贯穿着我国的住房市场,近期我国住房市场快速发展,特点明显,住房市场在住房供应能力显著提高的同时、还改善了居民的居住条件和居住环境。此外,住房市场推动和带动了经济及相关产业发展。但由于城镇化的推进,保障性住房建设相对滞后,住房供不应求的矛盾没有得到真正缓解,导致房价快速上涨。本文对上述问题提出了相关对策建议。     

廉租住房和公共租赁住房实行REITs融资的可行性探讨

廉租住房和公共租赁住房是我国保障性住房的重要组成部分。积极探索适合我国国情的廉租住房和公共租赁房REITs融资途径,加大廉租住房和公共租赁房的融资支持力度,能够疏通民间投资渠道,促进房地产市场结构优化调整,遏制部分城市房价过快上涨。本文通过分析我国金融市场和住房市场发展状况,认为只要完善相关配套支持政策,在部分房价较高的城市通过REITs融资模式加快廉租住房和公共租赁房建设是完全可行的。     

保障性住房运行的现实困境与策略构建

随着城市化进程加快和房价高速上涨,住房需求与房屋供应、土地出现了巨大矛盾,导致房价直线上涨。根据我国实际国情,当前解决中低收入家庭的住房问题成为一项很重要的民生工程。本文通过对我国保障性住房运行过程中存在的现实困境,提出完善运行机制的相应策略。     

住房公积金制度改革研究——以洛阳市为例

经济学上的科斯定律提出,市场发生的问题只能由市场制度本身去解决,任何其他外部因素,如政策法规都不能起到决定性作用。这一理论也适用于我国目前的社会保障制度改革。我国从新加坡市公积金制度建立了住房公积金制度,在过去二十年的运行中,在我国的住房市场和住房保障制度改革中发挥着重要作用。但是也暴露了一些问题,特别是随着近期全国一些城市房价的上涨,老百姓买房成了一个不容忽视的社会问题。然而以解决住房保障为目的的住房公积金制度,却没有起到预期中作用。     

我国房价调控现状研究

处于快速城市化进程的中国,房地产市场得到快速发展本无可厚非,然而快速发展的房地产市场却伴随着不断上涨的房价,有些城市的房价甚至已达到让人不可思议的地步,地产泡沫危机着实让人担忧。在这样一场资产盛宴中,本应该用来满足人们基本生存发展的住房却成为了市场上争相炒作的对象。政府基于保障民生、保持经济增长和防范市场风险等目的,一直以来对房地产市场进行宏观调控,以遏制快速上涨的房价,促进房地产市场健康发展,然而这些调控政策却没能挡住房价持续上涨的趋势。本文正是结合了我国房地产市场关于房价调控历史的研究,分析我国在房价调控方面所存在的问题,以期有助于我国未来出台更加有效的调控政策,真正稳定房价、稳住市场,达到房地产行业持久健康发展的目的。     

我国现行房地产宏观调控政策存在的问题与对策建议

目前全国房价仍在不断上涨,一些热点城市,如北京、上海、广州等地房价仍在高位运行,其上涨速度还有所加快。这几年中央政府也出台了不少调控政策,但房地产领域的一些问题尚未根本解决。其原因主要是我国现行调控思路存在着很多问题,例如政府行政干预和房屋管制过多,"两房"制度问题多,住房社会保障的范围过于宽泛等。因此,现行调控思路需作调整。笔者提出了充分发挥市场作用,完善"两房"制度,建设国家商品租赁住房,引导消费者树立合理的住房消费观念等建议,希望能够对完善我国现行房地产宏观调控政策提供有益的参考。     

浅析中外住房保障制度

低收入群体的居住问题对任何国家来说都是一个十分重大的社会、经济和建设问题。在我国城市经济建设发展进程中,低收入群体的居住问题已经成为一个日益突出的重大社会问题。保证低收入群体的基本居住要求得以实现,完善我国住房保障制度,对于我国经济稳定、持续发展具有重大意义。通过介绍其他国家和地区住房保障制度,并对我国现行住房保障制度及其存在的问题进行分析,在借鉴其他国家和地区经验的基础上提出了我国住房保障制度的完善措施。     

"租购同权"政策对我国大中城市房价的影响研究

根据2014年1月至2019年12月我国35个大中城市的面板数据,运用双重差分模型考量了"租购同权"政策对房价的影响.结果显示:"租购同权"政策不仅能直接有效地抑制试点城市新建商品住房及二手住房房价的增长,还能通过降低房价上涨预期间接平抑房价增长速度,且该政策对不同属性的住房市场及不同建筑面积的住房影响也不同.鉴此,应继续落实"租购同权"政策,大力发展住房租赁市场,增加优质教育资源的供给.     

我国公共保障性住房价格机制研究

保障性住房价格是住房保障制度的重要组成部分,价格合理与否不仅关系到住房保障政策的实施效果,而且还是住房保障政策可持续发展的前提.从理论上看,保障性住房价格机制包括价格形成和价格运行机制,二者相互影响、相互制约而又相互促进.当前,我国保障性住房价格形成机制和运行机制都存在一些亟待解决的问题.本文在分析保障性住房价格形成机制、运行机制的基础上,构建一个科学合理的能指导住房保障工作实践的价格机制.     

Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

Price spreads and residential housing market liquidity

Most studies of housing market liquidity have measured liquidity in terms of time on the market (TOM), and have sought to explain TOM in terms of property characteristics and measures of market conditions. This paper departs from past studies of housing market liquidity by examining the spread between the listing and contract prices.We develop theory to explain the price spreads in the residential housing market. The model includes the list price of the home, the cost of the search, the standard deviation of offer prices, and TOM. Empirical tests using 3,597 sales for 25 months show a robust relationship of housing market spreads and these variables. Listing price and cost of search have the predicted positive coefficients, and the standard deviation of price offers is found to be negatively related to the price spread.     

Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market

Recent real estate literature has not only proposed a few theories to explain the puzzling macro feature of the positive correlation between price and transaction volume, but also attempted to identify the causal relationships between them. However, there is little empirical evidence to explicitly illustrate how housing price dynamics measured by both past price changes and price volatility at housing unit level affect housing turnovers. Using a unique housing transaction database from Singapore condominium market, this paper reveals an interesting housing turnover pattern in response to past housing price dynamics. The results illustrate that the rise and fall of a dwelling’s price can significantly affect housing turnovers in the same direction. Higher volatility reduces housing turnovers. The effects are stronger in the domain of losses and are weakening as the cumulative housing equity rises, implying that a seller withholds the sale in the downswing of a real estate cycle in the hope that the market will rebound. The findings offer some additional micro empirical evidence to the interactions between housing price and transaction volume and imply upwardly biased repeat sales indexes.     

中国一线城市房租形成机理和调控对策

房租是由房屋租赁市场的需求和供给两个方面决定的,而房屋租赁市场的需求和供给都受到房屋交易市场所形成的房价的影响。房价对房屋租赁市场需求的影响主要是由于房屋租赁市场和房屋交易市场的替代效应所导致,房价对房屋租赁市场供给的影响主要由房屋租售比和房价的上涨幅度决定。我国一线城市房价近十年的平均年上涨率为10%左右,这导致了我国一线城市的房屋租售比维持在极低的水平。随着房价的平稳,房租必然大幅上涨,故必须采取措施增加一线城市房屋租赁市场的供给,以供给量的大幅增加稳定房租。     

中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给

本文研究了自1980年代后期中国城镇住房商品化以来城镇居民住房的需求与供给。我们从耐用消费品需求与供给的标准理论出发,在联立方程框架下估计城镇住房的需求与供给方程,得到了需求的收入与价格弹性及供给的价格弹性的估计值。通过对1987～2006年全国城镇总体水平年度数据的分析,我们发现城镇住房价格的快速上涨主要可由需求与供给的作用解释,即人均收入和建筑成本的变化决定了房价的整体趋势。城镇住房需求的(长期)收入弹性约为1,需求的价格弹性在0.5到0.6之间。住房存量总供给的价格弹性约为0.83。     

房地产市场垄断、供给失灵及其治理

本文在考察我国房地产市场供求特征及其经济后果的基础上,构造了一个具有正反馈效应的概念模型。认为由房地产市场的垄断特性带来的供给失灵使得房地产潜在使用需求受到抑制,投资需求得到强化,而这两者又放大和强化了房地产供给失灵,从而解释了我国目前房地产市场房价高、房屋空置率高的矛盾现象,指出房地产问题的根源在于市场垄断下的供给失灵,并提出通过增加房屋供给和制度建设两个方面来治理供给失灵、改善房地产市场运行的政策建议。     

Spatial Autocorrelations and Urban Housing Market Segmentation

This paper seeks to let data define urban housing market segments, replacing the conventional administrative or any pre-defined boundaries used in the previous housing submarket literature. We model housing transaction data using a conventional hedonic function. The hedonic residuals are used to estimate an isotropic semi-variogram, from which residual variance–covariance matrix is constructed. The correlations between hedonic residuals are used as identifier to assign housing units into clusters. Standard submarket identification tests are applied to each cluster to examine the segmentation of housing market. The results are compared with the prevailing structure of market segments. Weighted mean square test shows that the defined submarket structure can improve the precision of price prediction by 17.5%. This paper is experimental in the sense that it represents one of the first attempts at investigating market segmentation through house price spatial autocorrelations.     

我国商品房价格地区差异的分析及启示

近年来,随着房地产市场的快速发展,商品房价格持续快速上涨,房价成为政府和民众高度关注的一个问题。然而,商品房价格呈现明显的地区差异。文章以商品房价格运行理论为基础,分析了商品房价格的现状,通过建立商品房价格影响因素的实证模型分析地区差异的影响。提出在国家调控房地产市场和商品房价格的过程中,不仅局限于金融政策、财税政策、土地政策等,更要从根本上统筹安排,注重实施资源的均衡配置和差异化的调控政策,推进地区之间、城乡之间的一体化发展战略。     

The spatial demand for housing with uncertain quality

This article extends the models of household location and the spatial housing market to examine the impact of uncertain housing quality on the demands for housing and location and the spatial characteristics of the housing price and consumption gradients. The well-known basic predictions of the certainty models remain qualitatively unaltered: equilibrium housing price is still decreasing convex, and (planned) housing consumption increases with commuting distance. Quality risk by itself, though, is seen to reduce the demand for housing and increase the demand for CBD proximity in the location choice model and decrease the equilibrium housing price at all locations in the competitive spatial housing market. The effect of quality risk on the consumption gradient comprises two offsetting effects arising from the increase in risk and the decrease in equilibrium housing price.