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1.
Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises
Abstract: This paper corroborates the finding of prior studies that managers avoid reporting earnings lower than analyst forecasts (i.e., negative earnings surprises) and provides new evidence of actions contributing to this phenomenon. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence of both (1) upward management of reported earnings and (2) downward 'management' of analysts' forecasts to achieve zero and small positive earnings surprises. Further analysis of the components of earnings management suggests that both the operating cash flow and discretionary accruals components of earnings are managed. 相似文献
2.
William Beaver Bradford Cornell Wayne R. Landsman Stephen R. Stubben 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2008,35(5-6):709-740
Abstract: We present a comprehensive analysis of the association between stock returns, quarterly earnings forecast errors, and quarter-ahead and year-ahead earnings forecast revisions. We find that forecast errors and the two forecast revisions have significant effects on stock prices, indicating each conveys information content. Findings also show that the fourth quarter differs from other quarters—the relative importance of the forecast error (quarter-ahead forecast revision) is lower (higher). We also find a marked upward shift over time in the forecast error and forecast revision coefficients, consistent with the I/B/E/S database reflecting an improved quality of both earnings forecasts and actual earnings. 相似文献
3.
Using data from the Chinese A-share market in 2004–12, we show how cognitive bias of individual analysts led to counterproductive effect in less-developed financial markets. We form an ex ante measure of analysts’ expectation error, a measure suitable for markets with a short history. We find that star analysts tend to be more optimistic than ordinary analysts, and their biased opinions influence other analysts because of analyst herding behavior. Two-stage least square regression results suggest that consistent expectation errors among analysts can lead to earnings management. These insights are valuable to investors and regulators. 相似文献
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We examine market reactions to contemporaneous announcements of current earnings and future earnings guidance for evidence
on how investors trade off relevance and reliability. Current earnings are more reliable than future earnings guidance, but
future earnings guidance may be more relevant for predicting future performance. We find that current earnings are more strongly
associated with announcement-period returns than concurrently disclosed future earnings guidance, consistent with investors’
relative preference for reliability. We find similar return reactions to stand-alone earnings and to earnings released with
guidance. In contrast, return reactions are lower for guidance announced simultaneously with current earnings than for stand-alone
guidance. 相似文献
6.
The Market Response to Beating After‐tax Earnings Targets Revisited using Analysts’ Pre‐tax Earnings Forecasts and Concurrent Tax Note Disclosures
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Kathleen Herbohn Irene Tutticci Zhi Tan 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2016,43(1-2):31-65
We investigate whether the premium for achieving after‐tax earnings targets is informed by the availability of pre‐tax and after‐tax earnings forecasts. We find evidence the premium is discounted for firms achieving only after‐tax earnings forecasts compared with firms achieving both forecast targets. This is likely due to the uncertainty about future profitability and earnings quality created by failing to attain pre‐tax earnings targets. For firms achieving only pre‐tax earnings forecasts, no premium is documented. Taken together, our results indicate that while pre‐tax earnings forecasts may not move the market, they have an informational role in providing a context for assessing the achievement of after‐tax earnings targets. We also consider the usefulness of the tax note disclosures of deferred tax assets from carry‐forward losses for assessing the premium for achieving after‐tax earnings targets. Reflecting the duality of this tax deferral, we find evidence that recognition of these tax assets conveys information about lower earnings quality when recognition is likely to be opportunistic (in the case of firms achieving only after‐tax forecasts), and provides a signal of future profitability (in the case of firms achieving only pre‐tax forecasts). 相似文献
7.
Douthett Edward B. Jung Kooyul Kwak Wikil 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2004,23(2):79-98
This study examines differences in the characteristics of analysts' forecasts of earnings for keiretsu and non-keiretsu firms in Japan. Japanese industrial organization is characterized by enterprise groupings, keiretsu, composed of firms in different industries, but interrelated through cross-holdings of ownership. The strong interrelations of the Japanese keiretsu have been shown to increase the monitoring of managerial performance. An alternative view of keiretsu stewardship suggests the exclusionary environment within a keiretsu creates an information monopoly, resulting in greater information asymmetry between inside and outside constituents. These two views provide opposing predictions on how keiretsu groupings potentially affect the characteristics of earnings forecasts made by analysts: increased monitoring will improve the forecast characteristics of earnings, while the opposite is true under an information monopoly.Our results suggest that forecast accuracy (dispersion) is higher (lower) for keiretsu firms than non-keiretsu firms, supporting a monitoring role by keiretsu. The results also show that keiretsu firms' forecast characteristics are related to the strength of the keiretsu relationship, providing further evidence that it is indeed the keiretsu relationship that increases the monitoring of management, which ultimately improves the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' forecast. 相似文献
8.
This paper examines the UK stock market's reaction to the appointment of outside (non‐executive) board members. Tests conducted using a sample of 714 appointments reported by EXTEL between 1 July, 1993 and 31 December, 1996, indicate a strong interaction between appointee characteristics and the magnitude of the agency problem: the share price reaction to outside director appointments is significantly more favourable when board ownership is low and the appointee possesses strong ex ante monitoring incentives. In contrast, the appointment of independent and manager‐affiliated outside directors does not appear to benefit shareholders on average, even in the presence of serious agency problems. 相似文献
9.
Flávio de Freitas Val Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo 《新兴市场金融与贸易》2018,54(11):2577-2595
This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index. 相似文献
10.
We condition security price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements on whether firms disclose supplementary balance
sheet and/or cashflow information that can be used to estimate the consequences of earnings management. Disclosure of supplementary
information is voluntary, and thus, we consider the possibility that firms that disclose balance sheet and/or cashflow information
differ systematically from firms that do not disclose. Results indicate that investors discount evidence of earnings management
at the disclosure date when supplementary information is disclosed. Such results indicate more informed earnings interpretations
of quarterly earnings when firms provide balance sheet and/or cashflow information concurrently.
相似文献
William R. BaberEmail: |
11.
Abhijit Barua Joseph Legoria Jacquelyn Sue Moffitt 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2006,33(5-6):653-670
Abstract: This study examines whether firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to meet or exceed earnings benchmarks when pre-managed earnings are below those benchmarks. We extend Brown (2001) by documenting that the differential propensity to achieve earnings benchmarks by profitable and nonprofitable firms results from differential accruals management behavior. We find that firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to have pre-managed earnings below both analysts' forecasts and prior period earnings and reported earnings above these benchmarks. 相似文献
12.
以我国2002~2008年期间A股上市公司为研究对象,延续Sloan的方法,利用mishkin检验来考察公司盈余持续性、审计师类型对盈余持续性的影响及股票市场反应。发现公司盈余中应计成分持续性低于现金流量成分;四大审计客户的盈余持续性要高于非四大审计的客户;与公司盈余中现金流量成分相比,四大审计师更显著提高公司盈余中应计成分的持续性;股票价格中所包含的公司盈余预期不能反映公司盈余中应计成分和现金流量成分持续性的差别;股票价格中包含的盈余预期可以总体上反映四大与非四大审计师对公司盈余持续性影响的差异,但股票价格中包含的盈余预期不能反映四大与非四大审计师对公司盈余中应计成分和现金流量成分持续性影响的不同,市场符合"幼稚投资者"假说。 相似文献
13.
Abstract: We provide evidence that the effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (the Act) of 1995 on analyst forecast properties is conditional on firm size and growth opportunities. We show that analyst coverage, frequency of forecast revisions, forecast errors and dispersion after the Act decreased for large firms and for firms with low growth opportunities but increased for small firms and for firms with high growth opportunities. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Act results in additional high quality disclosures in large firms, which face higher litigation risk and tighter scrutiny from investors but not in smaller firms. Our findings of increases in analyst coverage and revision but deterioration in accuracy and precision of analyst forecasts for firms with high growth opportunities after the Act suggest that in spite of increased corporate disclosures, the information environment for analysts deteriorated in those firms. 相似文献
14.
The Stock Market Reaction to Investment Announcements: The Case of Individual Capital Expenditure Projects 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bruce M. Burton A. Alasdair Lonie & David M. Power 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》1999,26(5&6):681-708
In this paper we provide novel evidence about the market reaction to capital expenditure announcements in the UK using a sample of nearly 500 disclosures made between 1989 and 1991. First, we show that the market reaction to joint venture announcements is significantly positive, whilst similar announcements from individual companies do not elicit any response. Second, we find that the market reaction to single company investments is positively related to the size of the expenditure, but only for projects which immediately generate cash. Finally, we report that the variability in the market response to announcements which follow large cash inflows is significantly lower than the variability in investors' reactions to announcements which are not preceded by such inflows. 相似文献
15.
We explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully, with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings. We generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings‐returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated. This parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results: reported losses are less persistent than reported gains, decision making diminishes the S‐shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by Basu [1997]. Furthermore, the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single‐peaked. Instead, it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by Burgstahler and Dichev [1997]. However, within our model, none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise, bias, or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior. They are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based. 相似文献
16.
Yeh Yin-Hua Lee Tsun-siou Pen Jen-fu 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2002,18(3):239-257
In most countries where firms list separate shares for trading by foreign and domestic investors, the prices of the foreign shares tend to be higher. In China, the reverse tends to be true. In this paper, we would like to focus on the information content in lagged premiums of Chinese A over B traded shares. The lagged premiums are found to have certain predictive power over the future returns and volatility of both A and B shares, with some interesting patterns. Specifically, an increase in the premium ratio of A shares will be followed by a rise in the return of A shares and a fall in the return of B shares. It is found that both of the investors in Chinese A- and B-share markets reveal positive feedback trading behavior. Moreover, the liquidity and information availability will affect the magnitude of such behavior especially in B-share markets. By using multivariate GARCH model, it is also demonstrated that the unexpected changes in the premium ratio of A-share price over B-share price contribute to the return volatility of both A shares and B shares. These patterns may provide foundations for the development of pricing models for equity shares under market segmentation. 相似文献
17.
Philipp M. Schlumpf Markus M. Schmid Heinz Zimmermann 《European Financial Management》2008,14(5):962-988
This paper empirically investigates the impact of both the first release of analysts' stock recommendations to a limited clientele and the subsequent dissemination of the same information in a major newspaper to a broader audience. For a sample of 1460 stock recommendations published in FuW, Switzerland's major financial newspaper, significant positive abnormal returns on the day of the original release of buy recommendations and on the day of publication in FuW are documented. Tests of the price pressure and information hypotheses reveal that analysts' recommendations contain new information, which is quickly incorporated in the stock prices on the first release of this information. In contrast, the statistically significant announcement effects associated with the subsequent publication can be primarily ascribed to price pressure in the underlying securities. 相似文献
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Recent corporate events have brought a heightened public awareness to corporate governance issues. Much work has been accomplished to date, but it is clear that much more remains to be done. This paper provides a review of empirical research in four relevant areas of corporate governance. Specifically, the paper provides an overview of (a) the role that outside directors play in monitoring managers, (b) the emerging literature on the impact of board diversity, (c) the existence of and incentives for corporate executives to manage firm earnings, and (d) managerial incentives to bear risk. 相似文献
20.
公司治理结构与企业的绩效是密不可分的。由于我国国有企业的产权结构畸形问题始终没有彻底得到解决,导致公司治理结构存在很大缺陷。根据我国的实际情况,完善公司治理结构的路径是多方面的,其中之一就是要充分协调与资本市场的关系。 相似文献