Structural change in China: the role of factor market distortions

This paper proposes a systematic accounting framework to decompose the reallocation of labour out of agriculture into factor market distortions and market-driven forces. The findings are twofold. First, the removal of factor market distortions is a dominant driving force of the structural change in China in the last decades, which contributes 50.52%, and market-driven forces account for the rest 49.48%. Second, the contribution of market-driven forces has been increasing with the deepening of market-oriented reforms, while the impact of the removal of factor market distortions has been decreasing especially along with the slowdown of labour market reforms after China joined the WTO in 2001. The results imply that further reforms that aim at correcting factor market distortions could still be an important impetus of structural change in the future.     

Labor market adjustment under transition in Laos

Laos has engaged in an ambitious program of economic reforms, the New Economic Mechanism. Yet little attention has been devoted to the impact of the reform process on the functioning of the labour market and to the role of the labour market in mobilizing human resources. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of reform policy on the labor market and to show how a better adjustment of the labor market can facilitate the success of the New Economic Mechanism. The purpose of the paper is also to show how a better use of the information generated in the labor market can contribute to transforming the reform process into a process of sustained economic growth in Laos.     

The sequencing of agricultural market reforms in Malawi

The paper analyses the welfare impacts of alternative sequencingscenarios of agricultural input and output market reforms inMalawi using a profit maximisation approach. After a reviewof the literature on the sequencing of agricultural market reforms,the agricultural sector in Malawi is described and its historyof market reforms is summarised. Subsequently, a normalisedquadratic profit function, with maize and groundnuts as themain competing outputs and fertiliser and labour as the majorvariable inputs, is estimated. The simulation results usingthe coefficients of the estimated normalised quadratic profitfunction show that, contrary to the sequencing path adoptedin the 1980s, Malawi's government should have liberalised themaize sector first, followed by the groundnut export sector,and once a supply response was generated, input subsidies couldhave been phased out. This sequence would have minimised theadjustment costs of smallholder farmers and would have reducedthe negative impact on maize productivity and food security.     

Setting It Right: Employment Protection,Labour Reallocation and Productivity

This paper provides a critical review of the recent empirical evidence on the links between regulations affecting the hiring and firing of workers, labour reallocation and productivity growth. It also reviews how workers affected by labour mobility fare and discusses policy options to support them. The upshot is that stringent employment protection has a sizeable negative effect on labour market flows and, through this channel, hinders productivity growth. At the same time, the evidence also shows that while greater labour market reallocation benefits many workers through higher real wages and better careers, some displaced workers lose out via longer unemployment durations and/or lower real wages in post-displacement jobs. In this context, reforms of employment protection should be considered as part of a comprehensive package that also includes an adequate safety net for the unemployed and effective re-employment services.     

劳动力就业困境的制度因素分析

现存就业制度的特点已经暴露其与市场经济体制难以融合的弊端,严重阻碍了市场经济条件下劳动市场的统一性和流动性。在这一制度下,劳动市场呈现出二元制和多元体形态,作为生产要素的人力资源和人力资本被多种就业壁垒所限制,并产生众多领域的就业不平等。政府部门仍然会继续通过对外来劳动力就业的限制来缓解本地劳动力就业的压力,这必然使得城镇劳动力市场的分割现象在一定时期内继续存在。     

中国劳动力市场发育的制度经济学分析

本文分析了中国劳动力市场发育的结构特征,并对转型期中国劳动力市场分割的制度变迁和制度均衡进行了分析,认为制度非均衡已成为中国劳动力市场发育的一种“常态”。中国劳动力市场的制度非均衡又成为该市场制度变迁的诱致因素,它的轨迹也就是劳动力市场制度变迁的轨迹。     

How regulatory changes affect IPO underpricing in China

This paper examines the underpricing of IPOs in the Chinese A-share market during the period 1992–2006. Since its inception, the Chinese IPO market has transformed from a tightly-controlled system to a more market-oriented system. Reforms include the abolishment of listing quotas and fixed issue price determination; allowing for more market participation in IPO pricing. The regulatory changes of Chinese IPO market, though improving over time, actually are not monotonic. The regulatory framework started from over-restrictive to over-unrestrictive, then fine-tuned with additional restrictions. This study documents the regulatory reforms during the sample period and investigates how these regulatory changes affect IPO underpricing in China. During this period, we find that Chinese IPOs exhibit a huge underpricing. The size of the underpricing, however, decreases over the sample period. This study further finds that the IPO pricing method before the regulatory changes, which was based on a fixed P/E ratio pre-determined by the regulators, contributed significantly to the IPO underpricing in China. After adopting a series of regulatory reforms allowing underwriters discretion in the determination of issue price, this regulatory underpricing component vanishes. This study has policy implications in demonstrating the impacts of regulatory frameworks on IPO underpricing.     

Regulation,Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper investigate the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also sheds light on the existence of non-linear effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) on the capital stock. Several alternative testing methods show that the negative influence of EPL is considerably stronger at higher levels. Finally, and importantly, the paper uncovers important policy interactions between product and labour market policies. Higher levels of product market regulations (covering state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment) tend to amplify the negative relationships between EPL and the capital stock and ETCR and the capital stock. Equally important is the finding that the rule of law and the quality of (legal) institutions alters the overall impact of regulations on capital deepening: better institutions reduce the negative effect of more stringent product and labour market regulations on the capital stock, possibly through the reduction of uncertainty as regards the protection of property rights. This result also implies that the benefit from product and labour market reforms may be smaller in countries with weaker institutions.     

Causes of labour supply and demand mismatches in the Dutch building trades

Summary In this paper the significance of some hypotheses on possible causes of labour supply and demand mismatches is tested on data of the Dutch building trades by means of a UV analysis. In contrast with most other UV research this study does not refer to a search-theoretical framework, but focuses on skill differences between labour supply and demand. Three significant causes of labour market frictions appear to be: the development of the skill composition of labour demand, the apprenticeship possibilities and the relatively high wages of older workers. Some other hypotheses show weakly significant results: bumping-down processes, reschooling of unemployed older workers and the development of secondary labour market segments.At the moment of writing this paper the author was working at the Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.The author would like to thank Professor J.A.M. Heijke, dr. N. van Hulst, Professor J.G. Knot, Professor J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor A.J. Vermaat for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper and G.A. van Pruissen for his assistance in computer work.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

A Flexicurity Labour Market in the Great Recession: The Case of Denmark

Flexicurity labour markets are characterised by flexible hiring/firing rules, a generous social safety net, and active labour market policies. How can such labour markets cope with the consequences of the Great Recession? This paper takes a closer look at this question considering the case of Denmark. It is found that employment adjustment is not particularly large in international comparison, but a larger burden of adjustment is along the extensive (number of employees) rather than the intensive (hours) margin. The level of job creation is high, and remains so despite the crisis, although job creation is pro-cyclical and job-separation counter-cyclical. As a consequence most unemployment spells remain short. Comparative evidence does not suggest that flexicurity markets are more prone to persistence. Crucial for this is the design of the social safety net and in particular the active labour market policy. However, it is a challenge to maintain the efficiency of the activation system in a period with high unemployment.     

Is Structural Change Speeding Up? The Case of Sweden, 1850–2000

Abstract

This article focuses on the importance of structural change on productivity growth and conditions in the labour market. From a productivity perspective, a positive relation is found between structural change and productivity growth from the industrial breakthrough until the first oil crisis. From the early 1970s, this positive relation weakened and eventually became negative as labour moved from high to low productive industries. From a labour market perspective, it is found that extent of sectoral reallocation of labour has become more intense over the twentieth century. The extent of job gains and losses seems to have been more intense during the postwar period than during the industrialization phase.     

Labour market performance in developing countries: A survey

Malfunctioning of labour markets is often given as a principal explanation of the widespread poverty in developing countries. Open urban unemployment and disguised unemployment in agriculture are generally considered symptoms of the poor performance of the decentralized system of allocation of labour time and skills in these countries.This survey leads us to a much less pessimistic view of labour market performance per se, though obviously imperfections do exist. On the one hand, the shifts of the labour force in response to shifts in demand have been noteworthy and suggest, at an aggregate level, rather impressive performance. On the other, a closer look at open unemployment, disguised unemployment, and other possible types of labour market malfunctions suggests that they may be less serious misallocations than they appear, and that only in part can such misallocations be attributed to poor labour market functioning.Though the labour market is the immediate locus of the problem of low and stagnant incomes of workers at the bottom of the distribution, the evidence suggests no causality in this association. There is no reason to presume that poverty is a manifestation of labour market failure.     

Ethnic group returns to education during the early post‐colonial period in Malaysia

The paper examines the returns to education for ethnic groups in the Malaysian labour market during the early 1960s' post‐colonial period. The analysis is based on data from the West Malaysia Family Survey of 1966–67. It is found that individual returns to education were positive during the period examined. However, the returns to education of particular ethnic groups differed. The findings suggest that ‘equal education for all’ does not guarantee that each ethnic group will receive equal wages unless there are other interventions in the labour market.     

Narrowing the development divide in ASEAN: the role of policy

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is divided. Most striking is the development divide that separates the newer members (the Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Vietnam countries) from the original ones (ASEAN‐6). More rapid growth in the CLV since the 1990s, driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms, has reduced these income differences. While the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. Further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the speed and the breadth of policy reforms. A gaping hole in the policy landscape in ASEAN is the failure to address labour mobility adequately. Ongoing demographic transitions will result in greater labour outflow. The current policy void on labour migration not only limits the benefits from trade and investment liberalisation but also increases the cost of structural adjustment. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence between countries, it has increased polarisation within countries. This can threaten social cohesion, as well as the sustainability of future growth. In order to make growth more inclusive, there is a need to invest more in education and health and to institute land reform. Apart from directly reducing social and asset inequities, such policies will produce a workforce more able to participate in the growth process and adapt to structural change.     

Towards an analysis of tax effects on labour market and allocation: A micro/macro approach

Summary Tax effects on labour market and allocation are analysed with a sectoral model which is based on the microeconomic theory of the behaviour of economic agents. The model contains a highly disaggregated household sector, an enterprise sector, equilibrium unemployment on the labour market and a detailed modelling of institutional aspects of the tax and social security system. The model is calibrated for 1985. Simulation results show that temporary increases of world trade and higher value-added tax rates do not affect the equilibrium unemployment rate in the long run. A higher replacement rate of unemployment benefits increases unemployment and a tax reform containing lower marginal and average tax rates reduces unemployment.The authors thank F.J.H. Don, C.J.J. Eijgenraam, F.H. Huizinga and R.M. van Opstal for assistance on the household model, the cumulated production structure approach, the wage model and the model of firm behaviour respectively, and other colleagues of the Central Planning Bureau for useful comments.See Shoven and Whalley (1984) and Borges (1986) for reviews, and Keller (1980) for an application to The Netherlands.See, for instance, Abel (1980), Summers (1981), Bruno and Sachs (1985), Van de Klundert and Peters (1986).Ginsburgh and Mercenier (1988) review AGE modelling and the disequilibrium approach.     

The Unintended Consequences of Education Policies on South African Participation and Unemployment

In the late 1990s, the South African Department of Education implemented two policies that were meant to reduce the large number of over‐aged learners in the school system: schools were no longer allowed to accept students who were more than two years older than the correct grade age, and students could not be held back more than once in each of four schooling phases. Our analysis uses school administrative data and household survey data to show that these policies coincided with a decrease in school enrolment of at least 400,000 and possibly more than 900,000 learners. These policies appear to have pushed many students into the labour market at earlier ages than was observed for previous generations, which explains much of the sudden increase in labour force participation and unemployment during this period. However, since these individuals would probably have entered the labour market sooner if not for their poor employment prospects, we argue that the resulting increase in unemployment signifies a more accurate reflection of disguised unemployment that already existed in the mid‐1990s rather than a deterioration of labour market conditions.     

China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model

This paper estimates open-economy macroeconomic models of the Chinese economy allowing for the structural change caused by the 1992 reforms. Unrestricted vector autoregressions, VARs, and cointegrating vector error correction models, VECMs, are estimated on quarterly data for the early reform period 1980–1992, and the late reform period, 1993–2018. Two long-run cointegrating vectors are identified, which can be interpreted as a long-run, money demand function and a long-run IS type income equation driven by export demand. The 1992 reforms involved a move to a more market oriented system and a transformation of financial institutions and this seems to be responsible for a change in the direction of effect of interest rates in both the IS and LM relationships.     

Outward investment, employment, and wages in Swedish multinationals

Examining detailed data for the home-country operations in Swedishmultinationals during the period 1986-94, this paper shows thatthere are signs of very notable structural changes in the home-countryoperations of these corporations. It also shows that the effectsvary according to economic conditions in the home country. Inthe 1980s, when the Swedish economy was characterized by hightaxes, high inflation rates, and a tight labour market, relativelyattractive jobs within the multinational corporations (MNCs)were relocated from Swedish plants to foreign affiliates. Inthe 1990s, by contrast, when the financial crisis had necessitateda host of micro- and macroeconomic reforms, the location decisionof the MNCs were more favourable for the Swedish economy. Newjobs created by the multinationals were found in activitieswith high productivity and wages. Thus, home-country effectsof foreign direct investment seem, to a large extent, to bedetermined by the home countries' economic environment.     

EEN Actief Arbeidsniarktbeleid

Summary The period following the second world war was characterised in The Netherlands by full employment. As a result, the policy with regard to the labour market underwent some remarkable changes. Before the war, the principal aim of that policy had been the prevention of unemployment. Now far more stress is being laid on the creation of a state of equilibrium between the various parts of the market. At the same time, because people became more aware of the fact that economic policy in general should be directed towards attaining a high rate of economic growth, another new element was introduced into labour market policy. It was felt to an increasingly strong extent that such policy should also be made to serve the purpose of attaining an optimal use of the available and potential labour force.The author is of opinion that labour market policy should be a matter of co-operation between government and socialeconomic organisations, and the entrepreneurs. It should start at the level of general and professional education, and take into account that the present phase of economic development shows important shifts. Agricultural employment in The Netherlands is narrowing down from 8% of the total working population at present, to probably 6% in 1970. Employment in manufacturing is levelling off at a percentage of around 42. This means that employment in the tertiary sector is surpassing 50%. An active labour market policy should be part of a program of general economic planning at middle-long term, and include a policy, directed towards establishing a higher rate of mobility of labour. Co-ordination of an active labour market policy with other sectors of socio-economic policy could be reached by the creation of governmental or semi-governmental bodies, designed to give special attention to the optimal use of the labour force as a factor of production, with due regard to the human element.Referaat gehouden voor de jaarlijkse bijeenkomst van de Vereniging van Afgestudeerden der N.E.H. te Rotterdam, op 17 Mei 1967.