临港新城：房价快速飙升

当自贸区的概念出现后,临港这个上海仅存的房价洼地也成为了历史。     

经济发展和房价飙升令中国人两难

路透社近日刊文指出,经济发展和房价飙升令中国居民面临两难处境。中国人普遍都将房产视为生活稳定和社会地位的象征,然而许多城市房价攀高的     

读懂中国房价

正近年来,中国的房价增长速度过快,远远超过人均国民的年平均收入增速,不仅极大影响到城市居民的生活质量,也是整个国民经济持续平稳发展的不稳定因素,房价问题已经成为引起广泛关注的重要经济和社会问题。影响房价的因素,总体可以概括为:资金、供求、利率、政策、投机性、预期和人为操控。     

房价上涨的冲动与政府调控房价的能力

国务院总理温家宝在前不久主持召开国务院常务会议,温家宝在会议上一再重申继续房地产调控绝不丝毫动摇,一定要让房价回归到合理的价格。2012年以来,一些媒体包括一些权威媒体又连接不断地刊文畅论房价。但笔者以为,使房价下降到合理价位还应从经济学、政治学方面进行观察和分析。     

决定房价的不仅仅只是自贸区

从表面看来,自贸区周边房价在短期内的飞涨,在一定程度上透支了自贸区的概念,但一切却没有表面上看起来这么简单。     

高房价凶猛——房价必跌49个理由

高房价凶猛。 实现“居有其屋”的梦想，高价房是一座无法逾越的山峰。 在高房价的市场旗帜下，“房奴”开始成为中国2006年的一个新潮时尚的词汇。 面对数以上千万的房奴以及更多持币观望、排队等候的准房奴，开发商、地方政府、银行信托、投机炒客与上下游50多个相关联行业共同架设的“房奴生产线”，可谓产能无限。 当一个社会大面积架起奴隶生产线的时候，当夯实现代城市化进程根基的大多数城市居民无可避免地沦为奴隶的时候，这显然是已告别千年奴隶制桎梏的现代政府所不能容忍的。因此，当市场无形之手失灵的时候，也正是政府有形之手出击的日子。[编按]     

房价走势:未来会更糟吗

泡沫破灭的风险正在不断积聚,房价泡沫的破裂对全球经济复苏绝对不是一个好消息     

稳定房价的“组合拳”解析

今年3月，央行出台了提高住房货款利率和首付比例政策，财政部官员也表示，将开征房地产税，以调节房价。近日，国务院办公厅出台了名为“关于切实稳定住房价格的通知”的文件。房地产公共政策的调整和可能的调整引起了各方利益主体的博弈。究竟该如何解读这些房地产政策?政府该不该调控房价?它对现存利益格局会产生怎样的影响?房地产市场如何实现健康发展?本期话题中，武汉大学经济学博士孙兴全、段永红、吴传清就此进行了分析。     

新国八条对房价影响的有效性分析

房价飞涨,政府为了有效地调控好房地产市场,继去年出台"国十条"之后,今年又颁布了新的调控政策措施即"新国八条"。本文主要研究相关调控措施能否有效地影响房价,哪些措施最有效。     

House Price Booms,Current Account Deficits,and Low Interest Rates

Domestic factors, such as credit and preference shocks, can explain the negative correlation between house prices and the current account in the U.S. and several other countries before the recent crisis. These shocks, however, cannot account for the fall of world real interest rates observed in the data. Expansionary monetary policy shocks in the U.S., coupled with exchange rate pegs to the dollar in emerging economies, are crucial to understanding the evolution of the real interest rate. Yet, monetary policy factors play virtually no role for house prices and the current account.     

The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes

We develop a life-cycle model that explicitly incorporates the dual feature of housing as both a consumption good and an investment asset. Our analysis indicates that the consumption and welfare consequences of house price changes on individual households vary significantly. In particular, the non-housing consumption of young and old homeowners is much more sensitive to house price changes than that of middle-aged homeowners. More importantly, while house price appreciation increases the net worth and consumption of all homeowners, it only improves the welfare of old homeowners. Renters and young homeowners are worse off due to higher lifetime housing consumption costs.     

Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

信贷约束条件下的房价波动分析

本文在信贷约束条件下,基于微观主体的住房消费在其生命周期中需进行多期调整的假设,构建了房地产市场波动的动态模型。理论分析结果表明,存在信贷约束的条件下,信贷约束越强,房价波动相对于收入波动的弹性越大;而未预期到的短期收入冲击在短视的信贷约束下引起的房价波动比具有完美前瞻性的情况下引起的房价波动更大。以此为基础,本文采用1998年我国开始建立市场化住房体制以来的相关数据对研究结果进行进一步的分析,亦表明前瞻性地对贷款供给进行充分调整,将有助于减少房价的波动。因此,我国应根据对房价波动的预期来调节贷款供给,建立健全征信系统,实施差别化的首付款比例制度,以此来抑制房价的过度波动,维护经济与金融稳定。     

货币供应量对居民消费价格指数与房屋销售价格指数的影响——基于1978-2009年中国经验数据的分析

本文利用结构VAR模型分析了我国货币供应量对居民消费价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的影响,并通过1978年至2009年的经验检验,发现我国货币供应量对居民消费价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的影响较为显著,居民消费价格指数与房屋销售价格指数会此消彼长,并且,货币供应量对居民消费价格指数的影响存在半年到一年的滞后期。基于此,我们认为,在当前货币供应量持续处于高位、房地产价格被严格控制的背景下,要加倍警惕2010年下半年至2011年上半年居民消费价格指数上涨,从而产生通货膨胀局面的形成。     

House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults

The transaction price of identical housing units can vary widely due to heterogeneity in buyer and seller preferences, matching, and search costs, generating what we term “markups” above or below the average market price. We measure markups for 3.4 million purchase-money mortgages and show that they can predict mortgage defaults and credit losses conditional on default even after accounting for collateral coverage (loan-to-value ratio) and a comprehensive set of other covariates. The findings suggest that standard collateral coverage estimation may be inaccurate, with implications for both individual and portfolio-level credit risk assessment.     

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

We model liquidity in housing markets. The model provides a simple characterization for the joint process of prices, sales, and inventory. We compare the implications of the model to certain properties of housing markets. The model can generate the large price changes and the positive correlation between prices and sales that we see in the data. Unlike the data, prices are negatively autocorrelated and high inventory predicts price appreciation. We investigate several amendments to the model. Informational frictions show promise.     

房价宏观风险度量方法研究

房地产市场对宏观经济、金融稳定具有重要影响,但目前国内外没有关子基于宏观经济运行的房地产市场风险的定量度量工具和方法.本文从宏观经济风险管理和金融系统风险管理的角度,借鉴金融风险度量工具VaR的概念提出HP-at-Risk的概念,建立了度量基于宏观经济运行的房地产价格波动风险的分析框架,通过基于产出的风险和基于物价指数的风险两个指标,分别度量其超出实体支撑的风险和市场局部失衡的风险.     

Controlling for Quality in House Price Indices

Given the importance of house prices it is not surprising that house price indices are used for many purposes. One of the factors that differentiates these indices is the house price determinants (such as structural characteristics and neighborhood quality) that are accounted for—that is, held constant. Indices are usually generated from house price regressions. It is shown that, regardless of the desired level of accounting, it is necessary to control for all significant determinants of house prices in these regressions to obtain unbiased estimates of the growth in house prices. An empirical example shows that not controlling for neighborhood quality can lead to substantial biases in estimates of house price appreciation rates even if the index does not account for this factor.