The impact of exchange rate risk on international asset pricing under various market structures

This article derives international equity pricing relations by taking into account inflationary exchange risk under various forms of market segmentation/integration. In a mean-variance framework, a two-country, two-period, two-goods model is analyzed under three different market structures: segmented, mildly segmented and integrated. It is found that as long as investors are consuming imported goods, in the presence of market frictions, inflationary exchange risk is an important determinant of real equity prices. This is the case because inflationary exchange rate affects the real purchasing power of investors.

Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market

Based on a three-factor international capital asset pricing model, we examine whether the world market, the local market and the currency risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data collected from 2003 to 2010. As the dataset also includes the period of global financial crisis, we examine the issue of risk pricing in the full sample as well as in before and after global financial crisis periods. Unlike most existing studies, the empirical results presented in this paper are based on (i) the quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) based multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and (ii) the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. Our empirical analysis based on weekly data on 58 largest Canadian firms indicates that the currency as well as the local and the world market risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. This result holds for all exchange currency rates proxies and in all sample periods. We find that the price of the world market, the local market and the currency risks is time-varying and the Canadian equity market is partially segmented.     

Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns

We examine the relation between the cross-section of US stock returns and foreign exchange rates during the period from 1973 to 2002. We find that stocks most sensitive to foreign exchange risk (in absolute value) have lower returns than others. This implies a non-linear, negative premium for foreign exchange risk. Sensitivity to foreign exchange generates a cross-sectional spread in stock returns unexplained by existing asset-pricing models. Consequently, we form a zero-investment factor related to foreign exchange-sensitivity and show that it can reduce mean pricing errors for exchange-sensitive portfolios. One possible explanation for our findings includes Johnson's [2004. Forecast dispersion and the cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance, 59, 1957–1978] option-theoretic model in which expected returns are decreasing in idiosyncratic cashflow volatility.     

The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets

This paper studies whether sentiment is rewarded with a significant risk premium in the European stock markets. We examine several sentiment proxies and identify the Economic Sentiment Indicator from the EU Commission as the most relevant sentiment proxy for our sample. The analysis is performed for the contemporaneous excess returns of EA-11 stock markets in the period from February 1999 to September 2015. We apply a conditional multi-beta pricing model in order to track the variation of the sentiment risk premium over time. The results demonstrate a positive significant relationship between sentiment and contemporaneous excess returns which is consistent with previous studies. The calculated sentiment risk premium is significant as well but negative implying that an investment in EA-11 countries over the examined time period – that is bearing sentiment risk – would have been unattractive to the investors on average.     

Market segmentation and the valuation of closed-end country funds: An empirical analysis

This article examines the role of market segmentation on the valuation of the U.S. stock exchange-listed closed-end country funds and analyzes the determinants of net fund premia in a multivariate context. It is shown that fund returns are generally sensitive to both national and U.S. market factors, but only national factors are priced. Cross-section and time series estimation of net fund premia indicates the importance of market segmentation as a determinant of net fund premia. There is some evidence that exchange rate changes may exert an additional influence. However, market expectation variables such as economic growth of the country or relative capitalization rates are insignificant.     

Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets

This paper examines the relationship between beta risk and realized stock index return in the presence of oil and exchange rate sensitivities for 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region using the international factor model. Thirteen of the 15 countries have the expected beta signs and show significant sensitivity to domestic risk when the world stock market is in both up and down modes. In terms of oil sensitivity, only the Philippines and South Korea are oil-sensitive to changes in the oil price in the short run, when the price is expressed in local currency only. Basically no country shows sensitivity to oil price measured in US dollar regardless whether the oil market is up or down. Nine countries are affected by changes in the exchange rate. In terms of relative factor sensitivity distribution, one is willing to conclude that these stock markets are more conditionally sensitive to local currency oil price changes than to beta risk wherever the relationships are significant.     

Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa

This work is the first to investigate simultaneously the occurrence of unconditional currency risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa’s major stock markets. The multi-factor asset pricing theory provides the theoretical framework for our model. We find strong evidence suggesting that Africa’s equity markets are partially segmented. However, we find insufficient evidence to reject the hypothesis that foreign exchange risk is not unconditionally priced in Africa’s stock markets. This result is robust to alternative foreign exchange rate-adjusted return measures. These findings suggest that international investors can diversify into Africa’s equity markets without worrying about unconditional risks associated with foreign exchange rate fluctuations.     

The effect of market segmentation on stock prices: The China syndrome

China has an A-share market that is open only to local investors and a B-share market that is open only to foreign investors. Contrary to what has been observed in other markets with a similar segmented structure, the China B shares trade at a discount relative to the A shares. We show that the phenomenon can still be explained by basic economic principles. Specifically, the existence of the H-share and the “red-chip” markets in Hong Kong provide good substitutes for the B-share market. We find that when more H shares and red chips are listed in Hong Kong, the B-share discount becomes larger. This is consistent with the model of differential demand elasticity proposed by Stulz and Wasserfallen (Stulz, R., Wasserfallen, W., 1995. Review of Financial Studies 8, 1019–1057).     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

The pricing of volatility risk in the US equity market

We analyze whether the pricing of volatility risk depends on the asset pricing framework applied in the tests, the specified volatility proxies, and the portfolio sorts used for spanning the asset universe. For this purpose, we compare the results using a macroeconomic and fundamental based asset pricing model using three proxies of volatility and uncertainty, using size/value sorted and industry sector portfolios. Our results reveal that the marginal pricing effect of the VIX volatility factor is strong and statistically significant throughout the models and specifications, while the effect of an EGARCH-based volatility factor is mixed, mostly smaller but with the correct sign. In most cases, the EGARCH factor does not impair the pricing effect of the VIX. The portfolio sorts have a substantial impact on the volatility premiums in both model frameworks. The size of the volatility risk premium is more uniform across the models if the industry sector portfolio sort is used. Finally, the size/value portfolio sort generates larger volatility risk premiums for both models.     

关于境内商业银行外币资金汇率风险管理的思考

文章试图为化解商业银行的客户外币融资需求持续旺盛与外币存款余额常年低位徘徊之间的矛盾提供办法和思路,即商业银行可以通过构建一个外汇组合提高自有外汇资金的收益,主动管理自有外币资本金汇率风险。这需要明确以下三个问题：构建此外汇组合的目的、评价此组合的标准和构建组合的方法。在此过程中,要注意兼顾风险和收益的均衡,确定收益核算口径和收益评价标准。     

The pricing of adjustable rate mortgage contracts

This article analyzes the structure of ARM contracts and the pricing of their component features, based on the view of ARMs as a complex bundle. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on option-based simulation techniques, our analysis specifies a microeconomic model of the lender as a profit-maximizer which is then tested using firm-specific data. The empirical results, which are consistent with the microeconomic model, indicate that the lender acts as a profit-maximizing firm in pricing the features of the ARM contract. Furthermore, the results suggest that while the interest-rate cap parameters dominate in the pricing of ARMs, other features are also important. Thus, theoretical and empirical ARM pricing models should embrace other features of the contract besides the cap parameters.     

High-temperature exposure risk,corporate performance and pricing efficiency of the stock market

Using the daily temperature data of the national meteorological stations, we measure the high-temperature exposure risk of Chinese A-share listed enterprises, investigate the impact of high-temperature exposure risk on corporate prime operating revenue and performance, and further discuss securities analysts' forecasts for this risk. We find that increased exposure to high temperature reduces corporate prime operating revenue, and the response of enterprises to high-temperature risk will lead to a rise in management expenses and the deterioration of business performance. Further evidence suggests that securities analysts generally underestimate or ignore the impact of high-temperature exposure risk, and our results are robust to different measures and samples.     

Tax strategy control: The case of transfer pricing tax risk management

This paper examines how a functional tax strategy impacts the management control system (MCS) in a multinational enterprise (MNE) facing transfer pricing tax risks. Based on case study findings it is argued that the MCS in a multinational setting is contingent upon the MNE's response to its tax environment. Moreover, the paper extends existing contingency-based theory on MCS by illustrating the role of inter-organisational network collaboration across MNE transfer pricing tax experts. This collaboration, caused by a widely dispersed tax knowledge base, fuels the formal interactive control system and reduces tax uncertainty. The paper adopts an interdisciplinary approach for explaining findings, using contingency-based theory and network theory at the inter-organisational level.     

The pricing of foreign exchange risk around the Asian financial crisis: evidence from Taiwan's stock market

The volatile exchange rate movement during the Asian financial crisis has led global investors to re-evaluate the importance of currency exposures in Asian stock markets. In this paper, we examine industry-level currency risk of Taiwan's stock market around the Asian financial crisis. The results show that most export-oriented industries, except for the electronics industry, are positively affected by the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) against the US Dollars (USD). We also find that the magnitude of currency risk is less for banking and electronics industries in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) than for those in the over-the-counter (OTC) security exchange. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chow et al. (J. Financial Res. 2 (1997b) 191) and have important implications for international investors with exposures in Taiwan's stock market.     

Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model

In this paper, we investigate existence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the aggregate stock price, industrial production, real exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation in the United States. Applying Johansen's cointegration analysis to monthly data for the 1974:01-1998:12 period, we find that the S&P 500 stock price is positively related to the industrial production but negatively to the real exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation. Analysis of error correction mechanism reveals that the stock price, industrial production, and inflation adjust to correct disequilibrium among the five variables, while variance decompositions indicate that the stock price is driven to a considerable extent by innovations in the interest rate. Structural stability tests show that the parameters of the cointegrating system and the error correction term are stationary.     

Explaining the accounting disclosure index of stock exchanges by foreign exchange market activity

In this article, researcher-created accounting disclosure index of 23 stock exchanges for the year 1992 and its relationship with variables including foreign exchange turnover, economic and financial indicators were investigated. The accounting disclosure index of global stock exchanges crafted by Adhikari and Tondkar (1992) was regressed on foreign market turnover which was utilized as a proxy for foreign exchange market activity. The OLS results supported that along with the activity of foreign exchange market; GNI per capita, market capitalization, energy and electric consumption, number of listed companies were significantly related with the accounting disclosure index. The foreign market turnover was found to be positively influencing the accounting disclosure index. The models explained about 73% of the variation in the index with an F-ratio of 26.56 indicating the overall significance of the model.     

Market competitiveness and Big 5 pricing: Evidence from China's binary market

Big 5 auditors enjoy a worldwide audit fee premium that is believed to be attributable primarily to their reputation for providing high-quality services to clients. This study finds that the fee premium is also attributable to a lack of competition in the market. Taking advantage of the binary structure of the audit market in China, we compare the pricing practices of the Big 5 in the competitive statutory market and the less competitive supplementary market. Although the Big 5 have a reputation for high-quality audits in both markets, the degree of competition in the two markets is very different. Using audit fee data from the period 2000 to 2003, we find that the Big 5 earn a significant fee premium in the less competitive supplementary market, but not in the competitive statutory market. Although our results do not completely rule out reputation as an explanation, they are consistent with the notion that the audit fee premium that is earned by the Big 5 is more likely to be attributable to their dominant market position than to their reputation in the emerging Chinese markets, in which the usual audit-quality benefits for investors and managers are either absent or minimal.     

International market segmentation and Eurodebt issues

Implications of capital market segmentation for international capital structure (ICS)—capital structure consisting of equity issued in one country and debt issued in another—are examined. Necessary conditions for the emergence of ICS are analyzed under two options for debt issues (foreign debt and Eurodebt) and comparisons are made. It is shown that in cases where the project cannot support an ICS including foreign debt Eurobonds can be issued and would be profitable.     

The impact of exchange rates on stock market returns: new evidence from seven free-floating currencies

This paper provides evidence of a significant exchange rate effect on stock index returns using data from seven selected countries practicing free-floating exchange rate regimes. This research uses parity and asset pricing theories, thus placing it within the monetary-cum-economics framework for international asset pricing. In this study, we apply a system of seemingly unrelated regression to control for unobserved heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The findings constitute evidence of a statistically significant exchange rate impact on stock index returns across selected countries. These findings can be considered as falling under the arbitrage pricing approach of the international capital asset pricing model of Solnik who also used the parity-theoretical framework on exchange rate determination.