美国经常项目赤字的可持续性研究

近年来,美国巨额经常项目赤字和美元持续贬值引起了经济学界的强烈关注,一些经济学家发出了美元和国际货币体系崩溃的警告。在现行国际货币体系即以资产为本位的泛布雷顿森林体系下,中心国家美国和外围亚洲国家形成了双赢的局面。该体系与布雷顿森林体系相比具有更大的安全性和稳定性,美国能够承受更大规模的经常项目赤字,并由此获得了更为灵活的政策操作空间。在某种程度上,美国巨额经常项目赤字是其雄厚的金融和经济实力的体现。     

国际有机食品市场及我国有机食品的发展

人们对食品质量的关注和对食品安全标准的担忧，决定着食品的消费和国际农业贸易的发展。国际有机农业和食品生产正是在这种情况下发展起来的，其目的是为了解决农产品化学污染和品质下降问题，减轻农业生产对资源和生态环境的压力。目前，国际有机农业和有机农产品的法规与管理体系主要分为联合国、国际性非政府组织和国家3个层次。我国有机食品的组织管理体系和标准体系尚不健全，国内有机食品的认证必须与国外的认证组织合作完成。     

The Current Arab Work Ethic: Antecedents,Implications, and Potential Remedies

This article begins with the premise that market-oriented development strategies require more than the free movement of the factors of production from one use to another; they also require a positive work ethic and an energetic and committed workforce. However, the existing Arab work ethic does not seem conducive to␣development and change. This article assesses some antecedents that might have led to the emergence of the existing work ethic. First, we address the potential role of religion in developing a value system that is not conducive to growth and development. We also tackle family dynamics in the Arab world and the impact of family structures on personal and group development. Then, we move our attention to the educational system in the Arab world trying to uncover any common patterns in the various educational approaches in the Arab world that could have had lasting impressions on power dynamics in␣Arab societies. We also address power and leadership relationships and focus our attention on how groups actually function in the Arab world. Thereafter, we tackle what has emerged out of these societal institutions and relationships, and offer some implications marking out paths for international managers.     

美国经常项目持续逆差的原因分析

本文从世界对美元资产需求的角度分析了美国经常项目持续逆差的原因.根据Frenkel和Mussa(1985)的经常项目决定模型对美国近20年的历史数据进行实证研究,结果表明:美国利率长期偏高的倾向以及贸易伙伴国对美元资产及美元储备需求是造成美国经常项目出现持续逆差的重要原因.     

Merchanting and Current Account Balances

Merchanting is goods trade that does not cross the border of the firm's country of residence. Merchanting grew strongly in the last decade in several European economies and has become an important determinant of these countries’ current account. Because merchanting firms reinvest their earnings abroad to expand their international activities, this practice raises national savings in the home country without increasing domestic investment. This paper examines the empirical linkages between merchanting and the current account balance. Using a sample of 53 countries during 1980–2011, it shows that merchanting activity is a determinant of the medium‐term current account balance.     

As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries

This paper extends the study of current account (CA) reversals by considering the implications for the composition of output and employment. It is shown that decreases in CA deficits imply increases in tradable relative to non‐tradable output and/or declines in investment. The impact of CA ‘rebalancing’ should therefore be expected to vary considerably across sectors of an economy. This intersectoral variation is studied by examining the dynamics of output, employment and prices using data for 55 sectors of the economy during 14 industrial country reversal episodes. The output and employment declines associated with CA reversals are most clearly evident in investment‐related sectors, while sectors related to primary commodities generally perform relatively well following reversals. Reversals are also followed by increases in relative inflation for tradable goods sectors.     

美国巨额贸易逆差能维持吗

20世纪90年代以来,美国经常项目赤字不断膨胀,而美国出现的私人投资、消费高潮与高额财政赤字是其产生的主要原因。通过对基本因素与短期因素的考察,综合分析美国经济状况以及美元地位等因素后,得出的结论是近期美国经常项目赤字将保持增加趋势。     

On Current Account Imbalances

Over the years, low wage and price increases in Germany amounted to a currency devaluation in real terms against the other eurozone countries and led to a continuous improvement in the German economy’s price competitiveness relative to its fellow eurozone members.     

What Do Current Account Reversals in OECD Countries Tell Us About the US Case?

This study examines macroeconomic developments around reversals in current account deficits in 29 OECD countries over four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase the likelihood of a current account reversal in the following year. For the US each of these three indicators of a reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in the OECD area were followed by a recession in the countries concerned.     

现行预算会计系统的信息“赤字”及改进策略分析

政府会计信息的需求机制是一项客观的要求,影响到会计信息披露的范围和质量要求;而会计信息的供给机制则存在一定的主观性,并且受到技术和规范上的限制。我国现行的预算会计在信息供求层面上,呈现出明显的信息披露不足,存在着“信息赤字”问题。分析经济、政治、社会环境以及国际新公共管理运动的要求,改革预算会计体系,建立政府会计体系已经成为必然的趋势,这是减少信息赤字、有效地评价政府和进行决策的前提和基础。     

The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits and Tourism Receipts in Turkey

Current Account Deficits (CAD) in Turkey have reached significantly high levels in the recent years and discussions around the sustainability of these deficits continue. On the other hand, thanks to its rapid development within the same period, the tourism sector is observed to increase its positive contribution to the current accounts balances. This study is an initiative to highlight the contribution of the tourism sector to the sustainability of the CAD in Turkey. Unit root and Cointegration tests have been used to this end. This approach is applied to the long-run relationship between Exports + Tourism Receipts (X + TR) and Imports + Tourism Expenditures (M + TE) for the period of 1980Q1–2005Q2. We question the weak sustainability hypothesis where the cointegrating vector is (X + TR)_t = a + b(M + TE)_t + η _t . In this vector, if b equals to one and η_t is stationary, then the current account deficits are strongly sustainable, if b is between 0 and 1(0 < b < 1) and η_t is stationary or b = 1 but η_t is non-stationary, then the current account deficits are weakly sustainable and lastly, if there is no cointegration or b = 0, then the current account deficits are unsustainable. The empirical results indicate that CAD in Turkey are unsustainable in spite of the rising shares of tourism receipts in current account balances. Therefore, in Turkey, where exports are exceedingly depended on imports, which makes it not very easy to reduce imports, the only way to ensure that CAD are sustainable is to seek options to further increase the tourism receipts.     

Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.     

欧美对华实施贸易救济的思考

入世以来,美国和欧盟对华贸易快速增长,同时对我国产品的限制越来越苛刻,实施了反倾销调查、保障措施调查等贸易救济措施,对我国的对外贸易产生了很大的负面影响。本文在分析我国与美国和欧盟双边贸易及欧美对我国实施贸易救济措施的基础上,提出了我国反救济的策略。     

The Global Productivity Slowdown: Diagnosis,Causes and Remedies

This paper addresses the long-term slowdown in labour productivity for a panel of 25 countries. First, we look at productivity shifts and trends based on structural break tests and modern filtering techniques. The productivity slowdown is evident in almost all countries we investigate. Second, we deepen the analysis by decomposing labour productivity growth. Third, we use dynamic models to test for Granger causality in the trends and find that there is strong evidence that a slow GDP growth trend causes the subsequent productivity trend. We conclude that the productivity slowdown is a global phenomenon and should therefore be tackled at the international level.     

The Current Status of Women in US Department Store Retailing: 2004

This study replicates the work of Gable, Fiorito and Topol () that examined the status of women in managerial ranks of department store organizations. Women now constitute 67% of all lower-level management positions, approximately 45% of middle-level positions, and 24% of those positions at upper levels. While some progress has been made since the 1994 study, females are not close to parity with males at the highest level positions. Further, a comparison was made of the gender composition of the boards of directors of the 25 largest industrial organizations (in annual sales volume) with that of the 25 department store organizations.     

Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative

In this paper I develop a model to investigate the connection between debt relief and current account sustainability. This model can be used as a key input in assessing whether a HIPC country's real exchange rate is ‘overvalued,’ and will thus need to go through devaluation. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest external debt to GDP ratios: almost 300 per cent. Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere (after Haiti), and for the last decade has relied very heavily on foreign assistance and aid. Moreover, in the last few years Nicaragua has run extremely large current account deficits in excess of 37 per cent of GDP during 1997‐2001 largely financed by grants, donations and migrant remittances.     

美国巨额经常项目赤字及其持续性探析

通过分析美国巨额经常项目赤字的构成,探讨了美国经常项目赤字是否将持续的问题。从某一时点上看,如果没有相关的外国资本流入以及负的国际投资净额导致消费、投资、利率和汇率等经济变量的变化,美国经常项目赤字仍将持续。一旦美国经常项目出现持续性巨额赤字,无论美国经济还是世界经济都将面临不可预期的风险。     

金融约束:经常项目失衡分析的新思路

国际收支中的经常项目长期大量顺差,这种失衡状态对宏观经济产生了诸多不利影响.本文从金融约束理论出发,分析经常项目顺差的根本原因在于金融约束导致的投资和储蓄关系不协调;因此,本文提出以金融深化为调整思路来实现经常项目的相对平衡,以促进国民经济的可持续性发展.