The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

Transforming teachers’ temporalities: Futures in an Australian classroom

There is much rhetoric in education about the ways in which students are prepared for ‘the future’. The notion of the future in Australian education is dominantly singular, vague and abstract. This paper describes research which investigates changes which occur within teacher practices, enacted curriculum and student learning. The case study at the centre of this research focuses on a primary school south-east of Melbourne, Australia, which is internationally acknowledged as ‘innovative and leading’ in ‘educating for the future’. Initially, it was apparent that this notion of the future was assumed, and these specific teachers had given little thought to what that future looked like, or how that related to students’ learning requirements. As a result of professional learning, the teachers underwent temporal transformation, in integrating explicit futures dimensions within their curriculum. Arising from this research were significant key findings which highlight the need for a reconceptualisation of the ways in which curriculum and pedagogy are enacted in regards to notions of multiple futures. Furthermore, it generates renewed calls for futures perspectives to be addressed explicitly within education. Importantly it highlights a deficit in current teacher thinking about their roles in ‘educating for the future’.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

Ethical dilemmas: Teaching futures in schools

Educational policy is implicitly futures oriented, yet in most instances fails to engage learners with explicit futures tools and concepts at a school level. Futures studies in education, or futures education has the potential to reposition learning as purposeful and mobilizes the lives of participants by connecting the curriculum of schools with the multifaceted futures of learners. This is a complex task within the tensions often existing between: the cultural role of a school, the expectations of a society, the expertise of teachers, and the increasingly diverse needs of learners (Bateman, 2012). It is between the tensions of these things that the ‘ethical’ issues of what is taught, or omitted as content in a classroom and the consequences of these choices are evident.This paper highlights ethical and moral dilemmas, as they were apparent in two futures education projects. In the first study, the teachers discuss the inherent limitations of offering a broader and more futures oriented curriculum. In the second study, teachers reflect upon their students’ anxiety with regards to futures images as they are interrogated within a curriculum study. Each of these studies highlights the ethical challenges that arise, when possible, preferable and probable futures are developed as part of learning in school settings, which are culturally and demographically diverse.Tirri and Husu (2002) highlight the ethical dilemmas, which emerge in classrooms around the world, based on conflicts in values and competing intentions between key stakeholders. In the studies which contribute to this discussion, there is evidence to suggest that futures thinking causes conflict within an individual's perception of how the world should be, or their worldview as a result of futures imagining which goes beyond what is taken for granted, or is an assumed future eventuality. In the same way, Carrington, Deppeler, and Moss (2010) argue that all curriculum choices about what is taught (or not taught) in a classroom reflect an ethical decision made by a teacher, with regards to what is foregrounded for learning and what is omitted.It is crucial to re-examine the role of a school in educating students for their futures, as opposed to educating students with an aim of furthering governmental agendas. More significantly, however, as this paper highlights, it is exploring the boundaries of what is acceptable or unacceptable, appropriate or inappropriate to teach in a classroom, given the changing diversities of schools and education systems throughout the world.     

Beyond medicine : Health challenges and strategies in the 21st century

The future of health involves much more than the future of medical care since the major factors affecting health are environmental, social and economic ones. Health has generally improved in the past century, but the continuation of this trend is threatened by population growth, urbanization environmental change, poverty, inequity, war, existing communicable and chronic diseases, and possible new ones. New policies and strategies emerging to deal with these challenges include the formulation of healthy public policy, investing in health, and the development of new structures and processes of governance. Integrated national studies focused on human well-being and environmental health are one means through which the futures field could contribute to the improvement of health in 21st century. Visioning workshops and other participatory futures activities are equally important, since they enable people and communities to take part in the definition and achievement of their preferred health futures.     

The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options

European science policy (so-called Horizon 2020) is guided by Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) with the explicit aim of shaping the future. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to the analysis and critique of Europe’s GSCs. The aim is to explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising ‘futures’, that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020. We identify six ways in which filmic and literary representations can be considered creative foresight methods (i.e. through: creative input, detail, warning, reflection, critique, involvement) and can provide alternative perspectives on these central challenges, and warning signals for the science policy they inform. The inquiry involved the selection of 64 novels and movies engaging with notions of the future, produced over the last 150 years. Content analysis based on a standardised matrix of major themes and sub-domains, allows to build a hierarchy of themes and to identify major patterns of long-lasting concerns about humanity’s future. The study highlights how fiction sees oppression, inequality and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature’s dignity as central to, and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. It concludes identifying warning signals in four major domains, arguing that these signals are compelling, and ought to be heard, not least because elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience. It identifies areas poorly defined or absent from Europe's science agenda, and argues for the need to increase research into human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours.     

The Resourceful Earth: optimism and confrontation

The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000, edited by Julian Simon and the late Herman Kahn, is a recent contribution to the continuing debate over ‘optimistic’ v ‘pessimistic’ futures and how projections about the future should be made. This article is concerned more with issues of methodology, fact and philosophy raised by The Resourceful Earth than with assessing its Tightness or wrongness. The intention of the article is to move beyond the debate not to perpetuate it.     

A systemic evaluation framework for futures research

Evaluation of futures studies is a topic that has frequently aroused discussion. Futures studies often deal with great societal or strategic business issues, and thus the validity and reliability of the results is of great interest to stakeholders. Existing literature contains discussions of such important issues as ethics of futures studies, the nature of knowledge about the future, and futures methodology, which together contribute to the quality, validity and credibility of futures studies, but discussion on the evaluation of futures studies is more scant.Thus, the main research question that guides our study is: “how should we evaluate futures studies to ensure the reliability and credibility of the results?” We answer the question by deriving a systemic framework for evaluation following the input-process-output schema to ensure that the whole chain from the data to reporting and implementation contributes to the quality and impact of the study.The main contribution is the systemic evaluation framework. The framework will contribute to the evaluation of existing and ongoing studies by offering guidelines for evaluation, and as a net effect, we propose, it will increase the impact of futures studies by making the practices more transparent and thus generating more confidence in the results.     

Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

Foresight and long-term policy-making: An analysis of anticipatory boundary work in policy organizations in The Netherlands

Public policy is founded on analysis and knowledge. However, knowledge – and especially knowledge about the future – is not a self-evident element of public policy-making. This paper conceptualizes the problematic relationship between anticipatory policy-making and anticipatory knowledge. Our study identifies possible key-variables in the linkage between foresight and policy, such as positioning, timing interfaces, professional background, instrument usage, procedures and leadership. We describe the organization and flow of policy and futures knowledge. Furthermore, we generalize these findings toward a theory concluding how ‘goodness of fit’ between knowledge about the future and policy can be achieved, so that the likelihood of informed future-oriented policies might increase.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

Computational cognitive assistants for futures studies: Toward vision based simulation

Many foresight researchers believe that quantitative simulations have a very restricted contribution in futures studies due to their simplicity and lack of creativity. While qualitative methods, taking advantage of the human cognitive system, have a great potential in addressing a wide range of problems in futures studies, this potential is mostly due to the human visual logic that can handle the task of imagining future scenarios much better than mathematical logic.On the other hand, computational methods benefit from the advantages of silicon-based systems namely speed, large memory, rapid networking, and communication. Hence, it would be extremely beneficial to come up with a solution that combines the positive sides of both qualitative and computational approaches. Cognitive artificial agents are computational units that make use of the human cognitive system. Their interaction with foresight and futures researchers can result in promising solutions for the problems addressed in futures studies. In addition, these agents can serve as a great source of inspiration for taking the first step towards vision based computers that can simulate humans’ imaginations of the future.This paper reviews some of the previous attempts in this field and finally sheds light on the main issues where methods in futures studies can play a key role in the future of Human Computer Interaction systems. Our suggested architecture for a future studies interactions-based system along with its justifications and specifications is provided in the form of a request for proposal.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

Gender in futures: A study of gender and feminist papers published in Futures, 1969-2009

This paper reviews and discusses papers related to women's studies, gender or feminist perspectives, published in the scientific journal Futures. The aim is to provide new understandings and remapping of futures studies by capturing how gender is created and understood in this field. The gender/feminist criticism of futures studies mainly relates to the field being male-dominated and male biased, which means that the future is seen as already colonised by men. When synthesising the insights from all 78 papers focusing on futures studies and feminism, gender or women, four conclusions are especially striking: (1) Women and non-Westerners are generally excluded from professional futures studies activities and so are feminist issues or issues of particular relevance for women. (2) Futures studies usually make no attempts to reveal underlying assumptions, i.e. often lack a critical and reflexive perspective, which is needed in order to add a critical feminist perspective and envision feminist futures. (3) Feminist futures are needed as a contrast to hegemonic male and Western technology-orientated futures. Feminist futures are diverse, but focus the well-being of all humans. (4) Futures studies often view women as victims, rather than as drivers for change, which means that their alternative futures are often ignored.     

Retrieving the dream: How students envision their preferable futures

This article begins by recalling the crucial role that popular images of the future play in societal development. It notes the apparent dearth of positive images as we approach the millennium and highlights the value of futures workshops as a procedure for enabling participants to envision the future more clearly. In particular attention is drawn to the work of Elise Boulding and her findings in this field. A pilot-study is then described which used the process developed by Boulding to help students identify the key features of their preferable futures. Some support is found for her contention that a ‘baseline’ future often emerges from such work.     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

Diversifying and de-growing the circular economy: Radical social transformation in a resource-scarce world

Programmes and policies for a Circular Economy (CE) are fast becoming key to regional and international plans for creating sustainable futures. Framed as a technologically driven and economically profitable vision of continued growth in a resource-scarce world, the CE has of late been taken up by the European Commission and global business leaders alike. However, within CE debates and documentation, little is said about the social and political implications of such transformative agendas. Whilst CE proponents claim their agenda is ‘radical’, this paper outlines its inability to address many deeply embedded challenges around issues of consumption and the consumer, echoing as it does the problematic (and arguably failed) agendas of sustainable consumption/lifestyles. Using the Sharing Economy as an example, we argue here that the ontological and sociological assumptions of the CE must be open to more ‘radical’ critique and reconsideration if this agenda is to deliver the profound transformations that its advocates claim are within our collective reach.     

A comparison of environmental visions of university students in Israel and Palestine

Young people's complex and contradictory understandings of the future are inevitably influenced by their past experiences and the environment in which they currently live. Where this environment is itself particularly complex or contradictory then the understandings young people hold of the future will be affected. This paper, based on foresighting workshops held at three Israeli/Palestinian universities, examines the differing environmental attitudes and understandings of the future that young people hold in Israel and Palestine, before analysing the implications of these for achieving more sustainable development in the region. Despite the very real challenges the region is facing, these foresighting workshops showed that young people think systematically and rationally about the future. They are not filled with pessimism but recognise the challenges they face and can identify realistic solutions to those problems which they see as being of the greatest importance. The foresighting workshops showed that there was some common understanding of the participants about the key future environmental challenges that they face together with possible means for tackling these challenges.     

A futures perspective in Dutch geography education

Geography education offers many possibilities for futures education. In The Netherlands, a future perspective is obvious in the vision behind the curriculum for secondary education, but this perspective becomes thinner and less open when elaborated in the syllabus, textbooks and examinations. From an intended ideal curriculum with challenging future relevant issues and a call for scenario thinking, it changes into a presentation of a fixed and often negative future in the perceived implemented curriculum. In a focus group meeting with stakeholders of the geography educators’ community, there is recognition of the importance of a futures perspective. But there is also uncertainty and unfamiliarity, when it comes to implementing a futures perspective in geography education. Moreover, the institutional constraints, with an output testing regime, prevent the geography educators from making substantial room in their implemented curriculum for futures education. To enable geography teachers to implement or improve a futures perspective in their education, more clarity about the function and form is necessary. By researching and supporting good teaching practice, the expertise needed can be built, extended and used to empower a lobby advocating a more supportive national policy.