利率市场化视角下的货币政策风险承担渠道问题研究*

利率市场化进程的深入可能会对我国货币政策传导、金融稳定等产生不可忽视的影响。基于此,本文研究了利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响。结果表明：（1）我国存在货币政策风险承担渠道,且从利率市场化间接度量的维度来看,在考虑以直接效应来衡量的贷款利率市场化之后,银行的实际风险承担水平上升;但是在考虑以价格约束效应来衡量的存款利率市场化之后,其效果并不明显。（2）从利率市场化直接度量的方法来看,直接引入虚拟变量的研究发现贷款利率市场化会使得货币政策对银行风险承担水平的影响变得明显;进一步从利率市场化综合度量的维度,引入整体的利率市场化指数的方法则发现,随着利率市场化进程的深入,银行的实际风险承担水平会上升。（3）利率市场化对货币政策风险承担渠道的影响在不同类型银行间存在差异。     

Peer effects on risk behaviour: the importance of group identity

This paper investigates whether and to what extent group identity plays a role in peer effects on risk behaviour. We run a laboratory experiment in which different levels of group identity are induced through different matching protocols (random or based on individual painting preferences) and the possibility to interact with group members via an online chat in a group task. Risk behaviour is measured by using the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task and peer influence is introduced by giving subjects feedback regarding group members’ previous decisions. We find that subjects are affected by their peers when taking decisions and that group identity influences the magnitude of peer effects: painting preferences matching significantly reduces the heterogeneity in risk behaviour compared with random matching. On the other hand, introducing a group task has no significant effect on behaviour, possibly because interaction does not always contribute to enhancing group identity. Finally, relative riskiness within the group matters and individuals whose peers are riskier than they are take on average riskier decisions, even when controlling for regression to the mean.     

Index-linked bonds from an academic,market and policy-making standpoint

The view put forward in this paper is that the index-linking of long-term public debt today represents a financial instrument thatfostersa low average rate of inflation. In particular, bonds that are fully linked to the prices of a representative basket of goods and services permit a reduction in the inflation risk premium, which weighs significantly on the nominal cost of the public debt and,ex post, gives rise to substantial real costs that distort the mechanisms of allocation and distribution and, ultimately, could lead to the debt becoming unsustainable. After re-examining the reasons for the “orthodox ” aversion to index-linking —notably on the part of the monetary authorities of the more stable countries and especially the Bundesbank —the case is put for the leading industrial countries, and notably Italy, to issue index-linked government bonds. By issuing such bonds, the Treasuries of the various countries would send a strong stabilizing signal to the markets because recourse to the inflation tax in the future would no longer be advantageous, reduce the real cost of government borrowing by eliminating the inflation risk premium that currently has to be paid on issues with fixed nominal interest rates, benefit from the positive correlation between the quality of revenue and expenditure, and obtain valuable information on forward inflation rates and the real interest rates implicit in the prices of the bonds. The long-term real interest rate offered by index-linked bonds would act as a sort of “lighthouse ” set up by the monetary authorities to illuminate the path of economic growth and enable operators and markets to co-ordinate their actions more effectively.     

A general equilibrium pricing model with speculation,quantity risk,price risk and foreign exchange risk

This paper develops a general equilibrium model where prices and foreign exchange rates are endogenous and based upon more fundamental determinants. Speculative behavior leading to position taking in claims on foreign risky commodities is explained. It is shown that in a multicurrency environment with less than complete markets and sequential trading opportunities, heterogenous expectations instigate this behavior; speculation occurs only when news (new information) is anticipated to emerge which can lead to a revision in prices and foreign exchange rates. However, it is contended that although foreign exchange risk and price risk do exist in such a market, they are results of the underlying and inescapable quantity risk. Furthermore, in well functioning markets, the risk that emanates from position taking in state contingent claims on foreign commodities and which influences final consumption is quantity risk. The distinction drawn between the three types of risks and the hierarchy established among the three markets with which these risks are associated has implications for international financial management, especially as it pertains to multinational corporations' foreign exchange exposure management.     

The impact of regulation on the riskiness of electric utilities

The impact of regulation on public utility riskiness has been investigated using common stock systematic risk (stock beta). We show that the stock beta confounds the relevant risk arising out of regulation with the riskiness because of other factors. Our illustration with a sample of electric utilities underscores the importance of this distinction and, contrary to the literature, does not support Stigler's capture theory view of regulation.     

Sovereign bond markets with political risk and moral hazard

A model of interest rates on sovereign bonds with default risk is presented. The model accounts for interaction between interest rates and default risk. Multiple equilibria and stability issues are examined. The model explores the level of debt that markets will tolerate in a context where there is uncertainty about output growth, fiscal discipline, real exchange rates, and IMF intervention. The effect of likely IMF assistance on the debt ceiling is shown to be large.     

Financial opening, deposit insurance, and risk in a model of banking competition

We study the impact of competition on banks’ risk-taking behavior under different assumptions about deposit insurance and the dissemination of information. While financial opening increases banks’ riskiness, a risk-based deposit insurance or, alternatively, the public disclosure of financial information, are likely to mitigate this effect. Moreover, the limiting cases of uninsured but fully informed depositors, and risk-based full deposit insurance, yield the same equilibrium risk level. Although the welfare consequences of increased competition depend on its impact on risk, financial opening unambiguously improves welfare as we approach the limiting cases.     

Monetary transmission with income risk*

In periods of distress, observed and perceived income risk tends to rise. Does this heightened income risk affect monetary transmission? This paper first shows that in partial equilibrium, heightened income risk dampens the substitution effect of interest rate changes but amplifies the indirect income effect of wage changes. The effects are sizable in partial equilibrium. An increase in income risk consistent with heightened risk during recessions affects interest rate and wage responses by around one-third. However, because income risk dampens the effects of interest rate changes but amplifies the effects of wage changes, its effect is weaker in general equilibrium, dampening monetary transmissions to consumption by around 11 percent.     

Economic indices of absolute and relative riskiness

Following Aumann and Serrano (J Polit Econ 116:810–836, 2008) who characterize by axioms an index of riskiness defined on absolute returns, we characterize a new index of riskiness defined on relative returns. Both indices are characterized by a similar principle of duality between risk and risk aversion, but while the index of absolute riskiness refers to absolute risk aversion, the index of relative riskiness refers to relative risk aversion. The similarities and differences between the two indices are studied.     

A theorem on interest rate differentials,risk and anticipated inflation

This paper develops a theorem to the effect that the difference in nominal interest rates between two securities of the same maturity but different risk is an increasing linear function of the anticipated rate of inflation. Even when society's inflationary. A preliminary attempt is made to estimate the real risk premiums that finance paper, bankers's, acceptances, commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and Eurodollar deposits command over treasury bills. It is found, for example, that the real risk premium commanded by bankers’ acceptances over treasury bills is five basis points. This means that in a non-inflationary environment, bankers' acceptances would yeild five basis points more than treasury bills. This estimate and the other estimates obtained are not implausiable, but they are probably minimum estimates because of bias in the estimate of inflationary expectations.     

Corporate monopoly power and risk

The relationship between monopoly power and concentration may be influenced by the ‘riskiness’ of the firm. Two related issues are considered in this paper: the impact of market structure and conduct on the risk of the firm and the impact of risk upon the relationship between profitability and concentration. An a priori relationship between risk, market structure and profitability is derived within the mean-variance framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.     

DO PSYCHOLOGICAL SHOCKS AFFECT FINANCIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR? A STUDY OF U.S. VETERANS

Traditional economic theories assume that individuals are endowed with certain risk preferences that are unaltered by experiences. However, recent evidence indicates that macroeconomic shocks do have an effect on an individual's willingness to take financial risks. In the context of investment decisions, we examine empirically whether an individual's risk preferences are affected by other types of traumatic life experiences. Using a unique proprietary data set, we investigate whether personal traumatic experiences—such as the combat experiences of veterans—have long‐term effects on financial risk‐taking behavior. We find that having experienced combat decreases the probability of investing in risky assets. Key policy implications are noted. (JEL G11, D14)     

Interest rate convergence, capital controls, risk premia and foreign exchange market efficiency in the EMS

This paper examines interest rate convergence between Germany and the other EMS countries. We argue that earlier tests of convergence based on cointegration are not informative, because cointegration only implies that a linear combination of interest rates is stationary. We show that a conclusive judgment about convergence can be made if interest rate differentials exhibit a trend towards zero during the period when convergence occurred, and if the cointegrating vector has unit coefficients. We then establish that convergence has taken place in the “hard” EMS period. We also attempt to identify the sources of nonstationarities in interest differentials by examining the existence of stochastic or deterministic trends in the expected rate of depreciation and in the risk premium. Finally, the possibility of market inefficiencies is discussed.     

Are Dow Jones Islamic equity indices exposed to interest rate risk?

The Dow Jones Islamic Market indices (DJIMI) are constructed by screening out stocks that are incompatible with Islam's prohibition of interest and certain lines of business. However, as a blunt instrument, the interest rate can affect discounted cash flows of any firm, even a firm with no financial leverage. This study reveals that the aggregate portfolio of Islamic stocks is immune to interest rate risk. However, at the sectoral level some Islamic equity portfolios demonstrate exposure to interest rate risk. Overall, evidence of interest rate risk exposure is less pronounced among Islamic sector portfolios than that of their mainstream counterparts—the Dow Jones World sector indices. The results also hold when interest rate risk is assessed in terms of the sensitivity of the DJIMI return to changes in level, slope and curvature of the interest rate term structure.     

Invariant risk attitudes

Concepts of constant absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion have proved useful in the analysis of choice under uncertainty, but are quite restrictive, particularly when they are imposed jointly. A generalization of constant risk aversion, referred to as invariant risk aversion is developed. Invariant risk aversion is closely related to the possibility of representing preferences over state-contingent income vectors in terms of two parameters, the mean and a linearly homogeneous, translation-invariant index of riskiness. The best-known index with such properties is the standard deviation. The properties of the capital asset pricing model, usually expressed in terms of the mean and standard deviation, may be extended to the case of general invariant preferences.     

Do bank activities and funding strategies of foreign and state‐owned banks have a differential effect on risk‐taking in Central and Eastern Europe?

This paper explores the differential effects of the activity and funding strategies of foreign and state‐owned banks in Central and Eastern European countries on risk‐taking. Due to potentially beneficial external support, the disciplinary role of non‐deposit funding is completely ineffective for both foreign and state‐owned banks. Most likely, because of survival beliefs, non‐deposit financiers deposit their money even when state‐owned banks become riskier. Involvement in non‐interest‐income activities has no impact on the risk‐taking of foreign banks and worsens the risk of state‐owned institutions. However, both types of banks are risky when involved in trading, insurance income, rental and other non‐banking businesses.     

Sovereign default and the sustainability risk premium effect

We analyze the joint determination of interest rate risk and debt sustainability for governments with fiscal imbalances. Because higher interest rates imply increased debt services, they worsen the government's financial situation and increase the probability of sovereign default. Thus, higher interest rates eventually lead to a decrease in the real demand for government bonds, which imposes an additional constraint on government debt sustainability.     

Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations

What is the effect of non-tradeable idiosyncratic risk on asset-market risk premiums? Constantinides and Duffie [Constantinides, G.M., Duffie, D., 1996. Asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers. Journal of Political Economy 104, 219–240] and Mankiw [Mankiw, N.G., 1986. The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks. Journal of Financial Economics 17, 211–219] have shown that risk premiums will increase if the idiosyncratic shocks become more volatile during economic contractions. We add two important ingredients to this relationship: (i) the life cycle, and (ii) capital accumulation. We show that in a realistically-calibrated life-cycle economy with production these ingredients mitigate the ability of idiosyncratic risk to account for the observed Sharpe ratio on US equity. While the Constantinides–Duffie model can account for the US value of 41% with a risk-aversion coefficient of 8, our model generates a Sharpe ratio of 33%, which is roughly half-way to the complete-markets value of 25%. Almost all of this reduction is due to capital accumulation. Life-cycle effects are important in our model—we demonstrate that idiosyncratic risk matters for asset pricing because it inhibits the intergenerational sharing of aggregate risk—but their net effect on the Sharpe ratio is small.     

A Tax Paradox for Investment Decisions under Uncertainty

In this paper we use a real option model for assessing uncertain investment projects and we show that—due to a flexibility premium—taxes asymmetrically affect the option value of projects that differ in their riskiness. Hence, this may generate distortions. We analytically identify a set of neutral tax rates (a tax regime) that preserve the post‐tax investment threshold if taxes change, and determine normal and paradoxical settings for investments. Unlike other tax paradoxes neither depreciation rules nor loss offset restrictions cause these paradoxical reactions. Taxes affect each project individually, depending on the project risks involved. This implies that, for a variety of uncertain projects, taxes cannot be neutral on aggregate.