How much should we trust life satisfaction data? Evidence from the Life in Transition Survey

We analyse responses to two similar life satisfaction questions asked at different points in the same wave of a major cross-country household survey covering the transition region, Turkey and five Western European countries. We show that while the answers to the two questions are broadly consistent for most people, the responses for some groups differ significantly. Respondents of a lower socio-economic status and with a more favourable parental background show systematically higher levels of self-reported satisfaction in the later question. We also find evidence that responses to the later question are influenced by preceding questions on social capital. Our results have important implications for the design and length of household surveys that contain subjective questions.     

Survival expectations,subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE

This article aims to assess how the risk perceptions of smokers affect survival expectations and subjective health. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, which include a numerical measure of subjective survival probability, are used to estimate a joint recursive system of equations that describe the relationships among survival expectations, subjective health status and smoking duration. A finite mixture model is used to address endogeneity and unobservable heterogeneity. This approach allows for two types of individuals with different observable characteristics to be identified in the examined population. We find that only in the population of the first type, current and former smokers incorporate the effects of smoking duration into their assessments of survival probabilities. For both types, quitting smoking affects current perceptions of smoking risks, causing the overestimation of both survival probability and subjective health.     

Anchors,endorsements, and preferences: A field experiment

This study investigates how access to political endorsements affects stated preferences for an environmental public good in Switzerland. We developed a contingent valuation survey questionnaire with two valuation questions, the first formulated as a (hypothetical) policy referendum, the second an open-ended WTP question. For the referendum question we solicited endorsements from a range of political parties and relevant interest groups. We then conducted a split-sample mail-survey experiment in which a table listing the endorsements was included with a subsample of the questionnaires. Access to the policy endorsements significantly affected the responses to the open-ended willingness-to-pay question.     

欧洲卫生技术评估网络发展概况

面对医疗技术更新、民众医疗服务需求提升和医疗投入有限等多重卫生系统压力,欧洲国家力图在其卫生政策制定、管理、报销或监管过程中利用卫生技术评估（Health Technology Assessment,HTA）方法,在充分进行医疗组织、经济、社会和伦理等方面论证的基础上,综合透明、科学和可靠的证据,确定卫生政策优先领域,推动卫生体系的健康可持续发展。欧洲在卫生技术评估方面的有益经验,对我国强化卫生技术评估理念和做法,支持卫生政策制定,具有积极的借鉴意义。     

Protesting and Justifying: A Latent Class Model for Contingent Valuation with Attitudinal Data

This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP) for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data to identify individuals with similar characteristics, such as WTP and protest attitudes. We find evidence that the answer to the CV question influences the responses to the attitudinal questions. In our case, this influence reflects rational behavior (budget constraint issues) and justification biases related to protest reasons, such as lack of trust in institutions or fairness issues with respect to the distribution of the burden of preservation. The results from our empirical application confirm the importance of accounting for those biases.     

Eliciting Stock Market Expectations: The Effects of Question Wording on Survey Experience and Response Validity

Expectations about stock market movements are an important factor in models of investments and savings. To better understand consumers' financial behavior, economic surveys such as the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) ask participants to report expectations about the stock market. However, readability statistics suggest that the HRS' stock market expectations questions use relatively complex wording, which may contribute to their relatively high rates of missing responses. Here, the authors build on survey design research to improve the readability of these questions. In 2 experiments using national online panels, they test whether revising stock market expectation questions to reduce their difficulty affects respondents' (1) survey experience, as measured by percent of missing answers and ratings of question clarity and difficulty, and (2) response validity, as assessed by respondents' confidence in their answer and comparisons between expectations and stock market outcomes. In both studies, the authors' revisions improved survey experience. Unfortunately, revisions also decreased the perceived (Study 1) and actual (Study 2) validity of responses. The authors discuss implications of question revisions for the design of economic surveys.     

Use of Contingent Valuation to Elicit Willingness-to-Pay for the Benefits of Developmental Health Risk Reductions

We report the results of several contingent valuation (CV) surveys to elicit willingness-to-pay values from the general public for risk reductions associated with decreases in exposure to a chemical, PCBs, in the environment. We also develop Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from the survey using both standard gamble and time-tradeoff elicitation methods to explore the relationship between QALYs and willingness-to-pay (WTP), and to develop QALY weights for subtle developmental effects. The results of the CV surveys are designed for incorporation into a case study of an integrated risk model to monetize the benefits of predicted risk reductions. Respondents showed a nearly proportional, positive relationship between decreasing the risk of a 6-point reduction in IQ (a standard measure of “intelligence”) and WTP, but showed a negative relationship between risk reduction and WTP for reading comprehension as an outcome. The range of mortality risks that respondents would accept on behalf of their (hypothetical) 10-year-old child is 2 in 10,000 to 9 in 1,000 per IQ point, and WTP per IQ point is $466 ($380, $520). QALY weights elicited via time tradeoff (reduction in life expectancy) were significantly different from QALY weights elicited via a standard gamble (p = 0.001). Respondents who answered questions about ecological endpoints first were willing to pay a small additional amount when asked about human health effects, but those respondents who answered questions about human health endpoints first were not willing to pay any additional amount when subsequently asked about ecological effects. This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Friends or family? Revisiting the effects of high school popularity on adult earnings

Recent evidence has suggested links between high school popularity and wages during mid-life using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. This article revisits this question by first replicating the results using an alternative dataset that is very similar in structure. Similar to previous results, the Add Health baseline effects suggest that an additional high school friendship nomination is linked to a 2% increase in earnings around age 30. However, leveraging the unique structure of the Add Health shows that sibling comparisons eliminate any associations between popularity and earnings. The findings suggest that families, rather than friends, may be the cause of the association.     

Experimental methods: Between-subject and within-subject design

In this article we explore the issues that surround within-subject and between-subject designs. We describe experiments in economics and in psychology that make comparisons using either of these designs (or both) that sometimes yield the same results and sometimes do not. The overall goal is to establish a framework for understanding which critical questions need to be asked about such experimental studies, what authors of such studies can do to ameliorate fears of confoundedness, and which scenarios are particularly susceptible to divergent results from the two approaches. Overall, we find that both designs have their merits, and the choice of designs should be carefully considered in the context of the question being studied and in terms of the practical implementation of the research study.     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

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Multivariate Mixed Models for Open-Ended Contingent Valuation Data: Willingness To Pay For Conservation of Monk Seals

Although dichotomous choice (DC) contingent valuation (CV) has been recommended by the US NOAA 'blue-ribbon' panel for large-scale contingent valuation studies, useful information can still be obtained from smaller, open-ended (OE) studies, often undertaken as a precursor to a DC survey. The CV study considered here was carried out in Greece and looked at willingness-to-pay (WTP) for protecting the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus-monachus) in the Aegean area. This is the most endangered seal in the world, and the application of the CV methodology was the first such application in Greece. The OE data consist of two responses: first, a binary response detailing whether or not respondents were in principle prepared to pay for the protection of this seal; secondly, those respondents who answered 'yes' to the first question were then asked to state their maximum WTP for such protection. A multivariate binomial – log-normal mixture model is used to develop a bid function including explanatory variables such as income, sex, age and education. Such a modelling approach provides an alternative to more commonplace tobit estimation. However, the model is extended to include further information which was collected on:(a) an increased WTP amount given in response to information that the initial WTP amount may not be enough to prevent the extinction of the seal;(b) respondents were asked to divide their final WTP amount between use, option and existence values, the latter requiring a multivariate model with four binary and four continuous responses per individual in the same model.The discussion focuses on the methodological issues raised with some comment on the substantive interpretation of results.     

Valuing low probability risk: survey and experimental evidence

This study uses a survey question and an economics experiment to elicit the value of a risk mitigation investment. For 93 subjects (48 males and 45 females) the responses to hypothetical questions are compared with a risk mitigation decision that has a salient outcome. We find no gender-differentiated responses to either the maximum accepted price in the economics experiment or hypothetical willingness to pay questions from the survey. In our design, the two procedures generate aggregate measures that were in close agreement, however individual decisions were seldom consistent.     

Bound and path effects in double and triple bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation

Dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions are relatively inefficient in that large sample sizes are required for a given level of estimation precision. An increasingly common approach to this problem is to supplement the initial question with subsequent dichotomous choice questions in a multiple-bound design. However, a number of commentators have suggested that such designs may generate responses which are internally inconsistent in that the distribution of underlying preferences implied by answers to the initial question may not be the same as that implied by the entire sequence of replies. We consider a variety of potential causes of such inconsistencies and use data from a contingent valuation study with two follow-ups and post survey debriefing focus groups to test both the effects caused by moving from one bound to another and those caused when respondents follow either the bid-increasing path generated by a positive response at a given bid amount, or the bid-decreasing path generated by negative responses. Results indicate that both bound and path effects are significant and generate a pattern corresponding to certain of the causes of inconsistency identified in the paper. Conclusions for the future application of such designs are presented.     

Ageing,cognitive abilities and retirement

We investigate the relationship between ageing, cognitive abilities and retirement using the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), a household panel that offers the possibility of comparing several European countries using nationally representative samples of the population aged 50+. The human capital framework suggests that retirement may cause an increase in cognitive decline, since after retirement individuals lose the market incentive to invest in cognitive repair activities. Our empirical results, based on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with the potential endogeneity of retirement, confirm this key prediction. They also indicate that education plays a fundamental role in explaining heterogeneity in the level of cognitive abilities.     

Convergent Validity of Attribute-Based,Choice Questions in Stated-Preference Studies

The application of attribute-based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature, but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation. Three design issues are investigated in this paper: (1) the placement of the monetary stimulus (policy cost to respondents) in the sequence of attributes, (2) the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions (two versus three), and (3) the inclusion, versus exclusion, of a status-quo alternative in choice questions. The data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value Maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program. Tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus, first versus last in the list of attributes, did not affect estimates of preference parameters, significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur, and the inclusion/exclusion of a status-quo alternative did not affect preference parameters.     

The dynamics of food insecurity and overall health: evidence from the Canadian National Population Health Survey

The paper explores whether the responses to household food insecurity questions in cycles two and three of the Canadian National Population Health Survey help explain the links between socioeconomic status and health at the individual level. Short-term transitions in food insecurity status are correlated with changes in health status. There is some evidence for females but not for males that conditional on current health, current household food insecurity can lead to lower future health status, even in the short run. There is stronger evidence for both males and females that conditional on current household food insecurity status, lower current health status can lead to an increased probability of future household food insecurity.     

Cooperation in collective action*

The ability to cooperate in collective action problems – such as those relating to the use of common property resources or the provision of local public goods – is a key determinant of economic performance. In this paper we discuss two aspects of collective action problems in developing countries. First, which institutions discourage opportunistic behaviour and promote cooperation? Second, what are the characteristics of the individuals involved that determine the degree to which they cooperate? We first review the evidence from field studies, laboratory experiments, and cross community studies. We then present new results from an individual level panel dataset of rural workers.     

Modelling the participation decision and duration of sporting activity in Scotland

Motivating individuals to actively engage in physical activity due to its beneficial health effects has been an integral part of Scotland's health policy agenda. The current Scottish guidelines recommend individuals participate in physical activity of moderate vigour for 30 min at least five times per week. For an individual contemplating the recommendation, decisions have to be made in regard of participation, intensity, duration and multiplicity. For the policy maker, understanding the determinants of each decision will assist in designing an intervention to effect the recommended policy. With secondary data sourced from the 2003 Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) we statistically model the combined decisions process, employing a copula approach to model specification. In taking this approach the model flexibly accounts for any statistical associations that may exist between the component decisions. Thus, we model the endogenous relationship between the decision of individuals to participate in sporting activities and, amongst those who participate, the duration of time spent undertaking their chosen activities. The main focus is to establish whether dependence exists between the two random variables assuming the vigour with which sporting activity is performed to be independent of the participation and duration decision. We allow for a variety of controls including demographic factors such as age and gender, economic factors such as income and educational attainment, lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, healthy eating and medical history. We use the model to compare the effect of interventions designed to increase the vigour with which individuals undertake their sport, relating it to obesity as a health outcome.