A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining ‘success’ for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of ‘environmental scenarios’, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.     

Unmasking scenario planning: The colonization of the future in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program

In the Netherlands, the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program has been introduced by the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations in 2014, in the context of the ongoing transformation of the Dutch welfare state; more specifically, the transformation of the social care sector. Scenario planning is a major preoccupation in this program and two major reports have been published in this connection. In this article, the authenticity of the scenario planning of the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program is questioned. It is found that the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program’s scenario planning is not a real scenario planning but, instead, a continuation of the neoliberal discourse by hegemonic stakeholders that seek to ‘close’ the future. It is concluded in this article that in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program the future is colonized and presented as an impersonal trend in which governmental agency for creatively negating and transcending the neoliberal discourse is irrelevant.     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

Scenario projects in Japanese government: Strategic approaches for overcoming psychological and institutional barriers

Scenario planning in the public sector has significant differences from scenario planning in the corporate world. Scenario planning in the government not only tends to be focused on issues of higher complexity and significance to public policy, but also in comparison to people in the private business, public officials have fundamental psychological and institutional constraints in their scenario thinking. These constraints make it difficult for them to contemplate multiple ‘untidy’ futures and imagine the possibility of policy failure: skills which are essential for successful scenario projects. Based on specific characteristics of scenario planning in the Japanese government, this paper contributes on better understanding the challenges and strategic solutions in providing more successful scenario planning in the public sector. Specifically, this paper argues that possible solutions in overcoming these constraints may be to shake public bureaucrats out of their thinking by providing free and open venues of conversation and more importantly through ‘derailment’ exercises.     

Designing action based scenarios

Are scenarios carrying actors’ projects or on the contrary are they disconnected from action? To answer this question, the paper first outlines how action and actors’ projects structure foresight foundations. Such a perspective suggests to design scenarios as action processes to anticipate new rules to be played in prospective futures. In a second part, the results of two action research processes are discussed to analyse the interaction between actors’ projects and scenarios. These two case studies exert that actors have to navigate through rule shifts rather than to oppose alternative scenarios. To conclude, further research is discussed to introduce individual actions in scenarios, as well as the design of relations of dominance between actors in the analysis of rule shifts.     

Using signposts in future studies: Lessons from the Justice for tomorrow project

Within the field of future studies, the scenario method is frequently applied. In the literature it is often stressed that it is important to know as soon as possible which of several scenarios is closest to the course of history as it actually unfolds. However, tracking scenarios via early warning mechanisms or signposts, is not a common practice. A standard methodology seems to be absent. Within the context of the Justice for tomorrow project, a scenario project of the Dutch ministry of Justice, we developed and applied a signpost method. We used this method to answer the question of how actual developments relate to the development paths depicted in the scenarios. In this paper we evaluate our approach. We explain what lessons can be learned regarding the use of signposts in future studies.     

3D,SF and the future

This article assesses the use of ‘science fiction’ (SF) in visioning or prototyping the potential economic and social consequences of so-called 3D printing. What is becoming clear to many commentators as well as science fiction writers is how rapid prototyping, or 3D printing more generally, could permit many final objects to be made near to or even by consumers on just-in-time ‘printing’ machines. This revolution in making would have many implications for the economy-and-society in the future by seriously augmenting, or possibly replacing, current systems of manufactured production, long-distance transportation and consumption. These 3D technologies have featured in SF works, including Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age, Ian McDonald's Brasyl, Charles Stross's Rule 34 and Cory Doctorow's Makers. The article reports on current research seeking to understand the implications of what may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making. Some creative uses of SF are presented in a professional workshop setting. As well the article documents the use of SF as a methodological prototype in forecasting alternative scenarios of the future. SF prototyping could be a powerful tool in the social science repertoire when put into action in forecasting possible technology and business futures.     

Cosmopolitan risk community in a bowl: a case study of China’s good food movement

Abstract

Ulrich Beck fundamentally transformed our way of thinking about human interdependence through his three core theses on risk, individualisation and cosmopolitanisation. However, two commonly observed deficiencies in Beck’s grand theory were its Eurocentric orientation and a lack of empirical grounding. Based on 5 focus groups and 14 interviews with participants of the emerging Clean Food Movement in China, this paper extends the Beckian discussion outside Europe. Through examining how individuals understand both ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ risks associated with contemporary food consumption, this paper demonstrates that in the face of unpredictable and incalculable harms, risks are not seen as a ‘thing’, but are translated into ‘causal relations’. Subsequently, for Chinese stakeholders, the best way to safeguard food risks is to enact more visible and functioning interdependent relations in the food system. This in turn has given rise to new forms of communities which cut across conventional geographic, socio-economic and political boundaries. The paper deepens a Beckian theorisation in two ways. First, it demonstrates that the ‘enabling’ effect of risk towards a cosmopolitan society is not limited to obvious global crises, such as climate catastrophes and financial meltdown. In fact, the mundane yet intimate concern of putting ‘good’ food in one’s dinner bowl already presses actors to form new social solidarities that are cosmopolitan in nature. Second, it goes beyond Beck’s assertion that the risk society has culminated in a cosmopolitan moment, and explores how a performative cosmopolitan community reshapes the ‘relations of definition’ to mitigate risks on the ground.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.     

Narratives of the future: Suspending disbelief in forest-sector scenarios

Scenario analysis considers highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing plausible narratives of the future and evaluating them for a range of implications. The power of scenarios lies in creating and considering compelling stories about the future. Thus, narrative, defined as an account of a series of events, is central to the process and plays a pivotal role in engaging participants in a scenario analysis exercise. While a good scenario story can engage individuals and influence their suspension of disbelief, we know little about how participants actually respond to the scenarios so they can, and will, suspend disbelief in scenario outcomes.We explored the role of narrative in suspension of disbelief in a scenario-based study of the long-term future of Canada's forests and forest sector. We discovered that specific aspects of the scenario narratives themselves influenced participants’ suspension of disbelief. While interacting with the scenario narratives, participants actively worked to suspend disbelief by creating new narratives or accessing other existing ones, and by projecting themselves into the scenarios as characters in the stories. Our results may help scenario writers, practitioners, and researchers understand what, in one project, cued people's abilities to suspend disbelief and engage productively in discussions about possible futures.     

Accounting in Babel? Constructing social accounting as a multi-logical performance

All social practices reproduce certain taken-for-granteds about what exists. Constructions of existence (ontology) go together with notions of what can be known of these things (epistemology), and how such knowledge might be produced (methodology)—along with questions of value or ethics. Increasingly, reflective practitioners—whatever their practice—are exploring the assumptions they ‘put to work’ and the conventions they reproduce. Questions are being asked about how to ‘cope’ with change in a postmodern world, and ethical issues are gaining more widespread attention. If we look at these constructions then we often find social practices: (a) give central significance to the presumption of a single real world; (b) centre a knowing subject who should strive to be separate from knowable objects, i.e. people and things that make up the world; (c) a knowing subject who can produce knowledge (about the real world) that is probably true and a matter of fact rather than value (including ethics). Social practices of this sort often produce a right–wrong debate in which one individual or group imposes their ‘facts’ (and values) on others. Further they often do so using claims to greater or better knowledge (e.g. science, facts …) as their justifications.We use the term “relational constructionism” as a summary reference to certain assumptions and arguments that define our “thought style”. They are as follows: fact and value are joined (rather than separate); the knower and the known—self and other—are co-constructed; knowledge is always a social affair—a local–historical–cultural (social) co-construction made in conversation, in other kinds of action, and in the artefacts of human activities (‘frozen’ actions so to speak), and so; multiple inter-actions simultaneously (re)produce multiple local cultures and relations, this said; relations may impose one local reality (be mono-logical) or give space to multiplicity (be multi-logical). In this view, the received view of science is but one (socially constructed) way of world making, as is social constructionism, and different ways have different—and very real—consequences.In this paper, we take our relational constructionist style of thinking to examine differing constructions of foot and mouth disease (FMD)¹ in the UK. We do so in order to highlight the dominant relationship construction. We argue that this could be metaphorised as ‘accounting in Babel’—as multiple competing monologues—many of which remained very local and subordinated by a dominant logic. However, from a relational constructionist point of view, it is also possible to argue that social accounting can be done in a more multi-logical way that gives space to dialogue and multiplicity. In the present (relational constructionist) view, accounting is no longer ‘just’ a question of knowledge and methodology but also a question of value and power. To render accounting practices more ethical they must be more multi-voiced and enable ‘power to’ rather than ‘power over’.     

The Financial Modeling of Property-Casualty Insurance Companies

This paper describes a financial model currently being used by a major U.S. multiline property-casualty insurer. The model, which was first developed for solvency monitoring purposes, is now being employed for a variety of internal management purposes as well, including (1) the allocation of equity to corporate units, thereby allowing measurements of profitability by business segment and policy year, as well as analysis of the progression of “free surplus,” (2) the analysis of major risks–such as inflation risks, interest rate risks, and reserving risks–that have heretofore been difficult to quantify, and (3) consideration of varying scenarios on the company’s financial performance, both of macroeconomic conditions as well as of the insurance environment.

Many aspects of financial modeling do not differ significantly between life and property-casualty insurers, and these are not discussed in the paper. Rather, the paper focuses on the following topics:

1. Surplus allocation and profitability: how economic surplus and the returns on this surplus are determined by line of business, separately for new business and for the runoff of existing business, and how the progression of free surplus is viewed.

2. Multifaceted risks: how to model risks that affect multiple components of the insurer’s operations, such as economic risks and financial risks. The multiple effects of macroeconomic conditions and changing inflation rates on workers’ compensation claim frequencies and severities complicate the basic interest rate path modeling of life insurance products and annuity contracts.

3. Scenario building: how to construct scenarios of macroeconomic conditions or industry cyclical movements to test the resilience of the company to changing external conditions.     

Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025

As a process looking for alternative visions of environment and corporate futures, scenario planning challenges strategic paradigms. In that way, scenario planning is dealing with the different beliefs of the many actors who make the organization and its global and business environments. Among these beliefs, emerging ideologies are one of the main shaping factors for the construction of new visions of corporate environment and corporate futures. To analyse the interaction between scenario planning and emerging ideologies, this paper will first propose a conceptual framework based on the dynamics of strategic paradigms. Second, it will discuss Electricité de France 2025 scenarios longitudinal case study in the context of the diffusion process of the French so called prospective approach to show interests and traps of scenario planning to manage paradigm shifts.     

The Implementation and Use of Benchmarking in Local Government: A Case Study of the Translation of a Management Accounting Innovation

Benchmarking is a management accounting innovation (MAI) that can be used for performance measurement and management in both the private and the public sectors. Although public sector accounting researchers have reported some success with the use of benchmarking, frequently charged problems exist in implementing and using this management technique. To look beyond the technical and institutional explanations, this paper takes a translation approach and presents a case study of a local government benchmarking network. We conclude that there is a link between benchmarking implementation problems and initiators’ failure to build a strong network of benchmarking allies. Implementation is facilitated if actors, other than the initiators, recognize the possibility of making benchmarking more relevant and less cost focused. However, even when a network of actors has a favourable attitude towards benchmarking, benchmarking may still appear as an unruly ‘actant’. Furthermore, the perception of implementation failure and success is heterogeneous and connected to various actors’ adoption of benchmarking. We also conclude that there is a connection between the use of benchmarking and 1) actors’ possibilities to use benchmarking in the struggle for resources and 2) the perception of benchmarking information as ‘factual’ or ‘factual enough’. However, the perception of benchmarking information as ‘factual’ or ‘factual enough’ seems not only a matter of correct or incorrect ratios but also of whether such information serves actors’ interests. A final conclusion is that the use of benchmarking increases when actors other than the initiators complement the original idea and ‘counter interest’ the initiators.     

Scenarios and the art of worldmaking

In this exploratory paper we propose ‘worldmaking’ as a framework for pluralistic, imaginative scenario development. Our points of departure are the need in scenario practice to embrace uncertainty, discomfort and knowledge gaps, and the connected need to capture and make productive fundamental plurality among understandings of the future. To help respond to these needs, we introduce what Nelson Goodman calls worldmaking. It holds that there is no singular, objective world (or “real reality”), and instead that worlds are multiple, constructed through creative processes instead of given, and always in the process of becoming. We then explore how worldmaking can operationalise discordant pluralism in scenario practice by allowing participants to approach not only the future but also the present in a constructivist and pluralistic fashion; and by extending pluralism to ontological domains. Building on this, we investigate how scenario worldmaking could lead to more imaginative scenarios: worldmaking is framed as a fully creative process which gives participants ontological agency, and it helps make contrasts, tensions and complementarities between worlds productive. We go on to propose questions that can be used to operationalize scenario worldmaking, and conclude with the expected potential and limitations the approach, as well as suggestions for practical experimentation.     

The Third Policeman: ‘The true and fair view’, language and the habitus of accounting

This paper explores the role and context of the ‘true and fair view’ (‘TFV’) in accounting and auditing. Utilising the work of Bourdieu as a lens, the paper argues that the world of the TFV is a subjective world with which we think we are objectively familiar. Bourdieu's ‘practical theory’ of habitus suggests that the TFV is shaped by the practice of ‘native virtuosos’ who have a ‘feel for the game’. The paper argues that the conceptualisation of the TFV privileges practice and authenticates the accounting habitus. Hence, whilst language maintains and reinforces social structures, it is in turn created by the routines of practice. By dominating the declaration of the TFV, the auditor effectively reinforces the status quo and the constitution of hierarchy and inequity that exists in the accounting field: the TFV, in Bourdieu's terms, ‘becomes what they are’.     

Siting controversies analysis: framework and method for questioning the procedure

Siting controversies are commonplace, as well against the construction of roads, railways, nuclear waste disposals, as against windfarms. Local citizens resist against siting decisions taken by the authorities, following a dynamics often quoted as ‘Not In My Back Yard’. Yet contested for its lack of analytical value, NIMBY is still used strategically by actors to qualify citizens as irrational and egoistic. Beyond this labeling, many factors are investigated to understand the dynamics behind siting controversies. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the legal procedure structuring the implantation of windfarms in the Walloon Region (Belgium), and its translations within different decision-making processes in specific case studies. To that regard, we consider the legal procedure as a ‘public policy instrument’. It is neither neutral nor natural, and carry values and interests. It organizes interpersonal relations between actors, and is potentially catalyzer of frustrations. In addition, this legal procedure is the object of translations within different contexts, including different actors participating to specific decision-making processes. The empirical approach of this paper is based on case studies data and on the use of an innovative methodology called ‘Open Process Workshop’. This methodology consists of a structured workshop with key stakeholders, during which the legal procedure is questioned. Overall, we demonstrate that the focus on the legal procedure – and its translations within different decision-making processes – allows systemic analysis providing deep understandings of controversies and reaffirming the interlinks between ‘the social’ and ‘the technical’ in such controversies. In addition, we argue that the methodology used fosters the production of innovative knowledge, mutual understanding, and collective learning between the participants.     

Accounting and networks of corruption

This study examines the nature and role of accounting practices in a network of corruption in an influence-market setting. The study focuses on the Canadian government’s Sponsorship Program (1994–2003), a national unification scheme that saw approximately $50 million diverted into the bank accounts of political parties, program administrators, and their families, friends and business colleagues. Relying on the institutional sociology of Bourdieu, the study demonstrates the precise role of accounting practices in the organization of a corrupt network imbued with a specific telos and certain accounting tasks. The study illustrates how accounting is accomplished and by whom, and it shows how the ‘skillful use’ of accounting practices and social interactions around these practices together enable corruption. In so doing, the study builds on a growing body of work examining criminogenic networks and the contextual, collaborative and systemic uses of accounting in such networks.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

An updated scenario typology

Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diversity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the use of a shared understanding of the typical features of scenario development and of the relevant terminology. A broadly shared scenario typology can provide this common understanding but existing typologies do not capture the diversity of scenario types. To this end we propose an updated typology, the presentation of which is the focus of this paper. We also explain how the typology was tested for its robustness in a comparative analysis of recent scenario projects.