Search, mismatch and unemployment

This paper explores the efficiency of the equilibrium allocation in a matching model with heterogeneous workers and jobs. In the basic setup there are two types of workers with different skill levels. Both types can perform the simple tasks of unskilled jobs, while the complex tasks of skilled jobs require a high-ability worker. We demonstrate that the equilibrium outcome with random search and ex-post bargaining is never efficient. Under the Hosios condition, the average wage is correct, but bargaining compresses the wage distribution relative to workers’ shadow values. This feature distorts the relative profits of jobs, making it too attractive for firms to create skilled jobs. Furthermore, due to the low-skill premium, the high-ability workers may accept too many jobs. Finally, in an extension, we show that the introduction of separate markets for the two types of jobs is not sufficient to guarantee efficiency.     

Horizontal mismatch and vocational education

ABSTRACT

Recent literature suggests that vocational education and training (VET) provides individuals with smoother transitions into the labour market but lower wages over the lifecycle, compared to general education. A possible mechanism explaining lower wages is horizontal mismatch, defined as a mismatch between the type of qualifications acquired by individuals and those required for their current job. Some studies have found higher mismatch wage penalties when individuals’ education is more specific, suggesting higher penalties for workers with VET. Therefore, we analyse horizontal mismatch in Switzerland, the country with the highest proportion of firm-based VET in the OECD. We use two measures from the Swiss Household Panel that cover different aspects of horizontal mismatch. While we find sizable mismatch wage penalties in OLS estimations, effects are small or insignificant in fixed-effects regressions. This holds for workers with vocational and general education background alike. We conclude that VET is more transferable than often assumed. We finish with recommendations on concept and methods for future analyses of horizontal mismatch.     

市场经济·信用体系·征信行业

我国加入世界贸易组织作出了遵守规则、开放市场的承诺,同时,我国社会信用体系发育程度低和普遍的信用失衡问题却日益突出.在我国经济进入"十五"计划的重要发展时期,信用问题已成为制约经济持续健康发展和完善社会主义市场经济体制的突出问题.加快社会信用体系的建设已成为举国关注的重点之一,追究信用体系的种种问题,人们发现我国作为"非征信国家",征信行业发展严重滞后,影响社会信用体系的建立和完善.因此,加快我国征信行业的规范发展,已成为建立我国社会信用体系,完善我国市场经济体制的重要课题.     

社会信用环境治理与信用卡安全

信用卡市场具有信贷信息不对称特征,潜在信用风险与欺诈风险.信用卡安全问题引发了一系列金融、经济风险.社会信用环境劣化在实践中加剧了二者关联效应.治理之策在于:以金融信用立法体系化、规范化为目标,构建金融信用环境正式制度框架;以金融信用信息市场统一化为导向,确立信用信息资源交易与传递机制;以信用意识行为化、信用行为常规化为宗旨,改善社会信用非正式制度环境.     

Dynamic signaling and market breakdown

We consider the effects a public revelation of information (e.g. rating, grade) has on trading in a dynamic signaling model. Competing buyers offer prices to a privately informed seller who can reject them and delay trade. Delay is costly and the seller has no commitment to its duration. The external public information allows for signaling in equilibrium. More interestingly, we characterize the dynamics of trade and prices. If signals are noisy, no trade takes place just before the revelation of external information. If signals are fully revealing, then trade occurs even close to revelation, however, transaction prices are discontinuous.     

信用的生态学诠释与信用生态链的构建

生态学有逐渐与经济学相渗透、相融合的趋势，从而扩展了经济学的研究边界。本文从生态学的视角对信用加以研究，首先介绍了信用生态的理论内涵，其次研究了良好的社会信用生态环境的评价标准，最后对构建和谐的社会信用生态链提出了具体的对策措施。     

加强企业信用建设 建立行业信用体系——中国市场学会副会长兼信用工作委员会主任赵凤梧访谈录

2007年10月，党的十七大号召全党全国人民高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜、为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗。     

农村信贷失衡、非正式信贷市场与垂直联结

实践表明,发展中国家(包括中国)的正式信贷市场上出现了严重的信贷失衡现象,中小农户从正式信贷机构获得贷款相当困难。本文对比分析了正式信贷和非正式信贷的水平替代和垂直联结两种情况,指出给予非正式信贷机构以信贷支持,有利于为农村中的弱势农户提供更好的信贷条件,也有助于缓解农村中的信贷失衡和“金融抑制”状况。     

健全信贷管理与防范消费信贷风险

一、消费信贷风险低的分析 我国消费信贷风险主要体现在五个方面:一是借款人的偿债能力;二是借款人借款后是否会发生道德风险;三是贷款抵押物的保证程度,抵押物的保值能力和流通性都影响到贷款的安全;四是银行对消费信贷风险的及时监控及监控力度;五是外部经济环境变化带来的影响,主要是指经济的周期性变化或者借款人所在的行业发生变化而影响就业、收入和资产的价值所造成的风险.     

信用违约互换与中小企业信贷风险的分散

2007年以来,我国产业转型的压力逐渐增加,对转变增长模式的需求也越加迫切.在这样的背景下,一方面,我国需要支持和发展中小企业,利用其在科技创新方面的优势来推动产业转型;另一方面,银行又必须注意中小企业风险的防范与防控,以保持金融系统的稳定和信贷资产的安全.因此,银行信贷与产业转型要求之间便产生了矛盾:本需要支持的中小企业却更难获得银行的信贷支持.本文正是针对这一矛盾,从金融制度和业务创新的角度出发,利用信用违约互换这一重要的金融衍生工具,创新性地重构了信用违约互换的交易模式,以求缓解银行风控要求与中小企业融资需求之间的矛盾.     

Credit and Business Cycles

This paper presents two dynamic models of the economy in which credit constraints arise because creditors cannot force debtors to repay debts unless the debts are secured by collateral. The credit system becomes a powerful propagation mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist and amplify through the interaction between collateral values, borrowers' net worth and credit limits. In particular, when fixed assets serve as collateral, I show that relatively small, temporary shocks to technology or wealth distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E44     

Credit unions and risk

The structure of the credit union industry has been transformed by regulatory changes and the subsequent switch by many credit unions to community and multiple-bond fields of membership. This study explores the impact of these trends by testing for differences in risk across credit unions with different field-of-membership types. In tests for differences in risk of bankruptcy and of breaching regulatory standards, risk is found to be greater for credit unions with broader field-of-membership types. These differences in risk appear to derive from greater earnings volatility and lower ROA and net-worth ratios at community and multiple-bond credit unions. These differences in risk decline with greater asset size. Evidence is also presented that credit unions that switched from single-bond institutions to broader field-of-membership types now operate with greater risk.     

信用与农村资产流动

本文以数据畏示了农村正规信贷不足的实际,在分析正规信贷不足的原因时,批驳了交易费用论和财产缺乏论,认为农村正规信贷不足的根本还在于农村自然信用与城市金融机构商业信用的错位,引起错位的原因是经济发展形态、法律对农民财产的过度保护和农村深层的乡土情缘束缚.通过理论分析和对中国实践的观察,主张从正规制度包括农村专业合作组织信用扩展和信用意识教育两方面着手对接上述两种信用.     

Credit limits and bankruptcy

Credit cards offer a limit, rather than a specific loan size, at a pre-approved interest rate. This paper studies the determination of these credit limits jointly with default in the presence of one-period debt. I adapt the standard incomplete markets macroeconomic model of one-period unsecured debt with the optimal choice of credit limit. Endogenous limits and positive default coexist. A numerical exercise illustrates the consequences of various factors for indebtedness, credit limits, and bankruptcy.     

Macroeconomics and Credit Markets

The extent to which freedom should prevail continues to be a lingering question in the economic discipline. The article focuses on how freedom is conceptualized. The question addressed is whose freedoms are being served through economic self-governance. The profit seeking microeconomic objective of capitalists, as addressed by Karl Marx, must lead to structural change resulting in unemployment. But unemployment has disastrous social costs. So the promotion of freedom for capitalists comes at a high cost toward society. Thus it is argued that the concept of freedom is itself a paradox. Freedom itself must be constrained to be viable.     

论信用概念的本质内涵与信用建设的基本途径

在时下的信用问题研究背景中,经济学一家独语的状况非常明显;即便是在伦理学研究背景下,信用也仅被作为一个关键概念局限于经济伦理领域。但是,要建立一个科学的社会信用制度体系,信用就应该首先被还原出它的作为一个一般伦理学概念的内涵,即它的本质内涵。当代的中国信用建设,仅仅局限于经济学或经济伦理领域来讨论具体的制度建构,无疑要走很多弯路。信用这个概念,正如诚信概念一样,不仅存在于人的经济活动领域,也存在于人的其他重大活动领域。在这些人的种种活动领域中广泛存在的信用概念是紧密联系和互动的,并且存在一定的同步性需求,这种需求的理论化,就是信用概念在一般伦理学语境下的充分讨论。     

构建个人信用制度打造社会信用基石

个人信用是整个社会信用的基石,个人信用制度是规范市场经济秩序,完善社会主义市场经济体制的重要条件。因此,建立以个人信用联合征信体系为基础,以信用评估为核心内容,以信用风险控制作保证的个人信用制度,是现阶段社会经济发展的迫切需要,也是社会发展到一定阶段的必须要求。     

产业结构升级对金融发展的影响——来自中部地区的证据

通过双向固定效应模型,实证分析了产业结构升级对金融发展的影响。实证结果显示,以第三产业快速发展和产业技术升级为特征的产业结构升级是推动中部地区金融发展的有利因素。因此,为了改善金融发展的产业基础,应加快发展新兴产业和注重市场机制调节作用。     

Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown

Using a DSGE-model with interbank market frictions, calibrated to match the frequency of financial crises, I investigate central banks' ability to prevent credit-related recessions by following an interest rate rule which accounts for financial conditions —an approach called ‘leaning against the wind’. The model's key feature is that boom-bust cycles emerge as a result of a savings glut and moral hazard in the banking sector. Although financial conditions predict crises, the policy maker cannot break the boom-bust cycle and reduce the crisis-frequency. When crises become more likely, low inflation forces the central bank to decrease the interest rate despite its intention to do otherwise. Responding to crisis-predictors eventually dilutes the primary objective of stabilizing inflation and leads to higher inflation volatility. The results suggest that central banks should refrain from leaning against the wind.