NEGOTIATING A RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ROLE OF BIOLOGICAL EMISSIONS

Researchers have attributed 15 percent of global methane releases to emissions of methane from enteric fermentation in animals (wild and domestic). Bovines contribute approximately two-thirds of this amount. Since methane is a potent greenhouse gas, this source frequently is a target for emission reductions. However, the existing literature overstates the importance of bovine methane as a greenhouse gas by as much as 800 percent. Estimates to date have focused solely on gas emissions, ignoring the biological and chemical cycling that removes carbon from the atmosphere. The analysis presented here demonstrates the importance of these cycles in assessing the overall greenhouse effect of biological methane sources such as rice production, termites, and bovine animals. Ignoring this cycling results in overemphasizing the role of developing countries' total contributions to climate change. In economic terms, the analysis shows that reducing CO2 emissions from energy use in industrialized countries is more efficient than reducing net greenhouse methane from animal sources.     

Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives

Up to date, collective efforts in greenhouse gas mitigation made by the international community have been rather ineffective. A major reason of the unsuccessfulness may be attributed to imprecise comprehension on the sources of greenhouse gas pollution and their changing dynamics. Utilizing the LMDI decomposition method, this paper investigates the time- and spatial-dynamics of drivers governing global carbon emissions. We decompose and quantify the effects of different drivers, that is, population, affluence, energy intensity and carbon intensity, across time on global carbon emissions. Next based on country-level decomposition, we also calculate and track the spatial gravity centers of the effects of the drivers. Our results show that energy intensity effect is the leading contributor for carbon emission mitigation, whereas economic development, carbon emission intensity and population serve as factors accelerating carbon emissions. We also find significant heterogeneities in the spatial dynamics of the contribution of different drivers, implying that differentiated climate change policies should be made at different countries to effectively curb global carbon emissions.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Embodied Carbon Tariffs

In this paper, we investigate the economic and environmental impacts of tariffs on carbon embodied in trade. We find that carbon tariffs do reduce foreign emissions, but their ability to improve global cost‐effectiveness of unilateral climate policy is quite limited – even if tariff rates are based on more sophisticated second‐best considerations. If carbon tariffs are levied on the full carbon content of traded goods, they can even increase rather than decrease the global cost of emission reduction. The main effect of carbon tariffs is to shift the economic burden of developed‐world climate policies to the developing world.     

Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND

FUND is an integrated assessment model of the interactions between climate and economy. Nine world regions emit greenhouse gases, and suffer damages from climate change. A number of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are compared, including optimal and cost-effective strategies, strategies with early and late abatement, and strategies with and without international co-operation. The analyses confirm that co-operation matters, resulting in substantially lower costs or higher welfare. The real commitments of policy targets based on an absolute level (e.g., 1990 emissions) are hard to estimate because of the uncertainties in the baseline. Postponing action conflicts with minimising costs and maximising welfare, but so does sharp emission reduction at the short-term as proposed in the Kyoto Protocol.     

应对气候变化挑战的全球合作框架思考——写在哥本哈根会议开幕之际

在过去的一个世纪里,地球平均气温上升了0.74摄氏度,导致海平面在20世纪末加速上升。科学家提出证明,来自交通、工业和农业排放的二氧化碳、甲烷及其他温室气体在大气中会阻碍热量释放,使全球温度上升,造成气候变化,带来干旱、洪水、海平面上升等潜在破坏。有鉴于此,本文通过建立一个全球合作框架来解决这个问题就变得极为重要而且迫切。合作框架的设计不仅要尽量做到公平和公正,而且要考虑合作框架的便利性,降低实施的难度,力争做到可持续、可发展。     

低碳经济综述

随着气候变化影响的日益显著,全球变暖问题越来越多的受到国际关注,由于全球对化石燃料的过度依赖,工业和人们生活中的废气排放日益增加,由此导致的空气污染和温室效应,使得碳排放已经成为人类生存环境的最大威胁。基于全球变暖和环境的日益恶化对人类生存和发展的严重挑战,低碳经济模式将成为未来经济发展的必然选择。     

Economic Impacts of Multiple Agro-Environmental Policies on New Zealand Land Use

This paper investigates the implications of policy on farm income, land use, and the environment when New Zealand landowners face multiple environmental constraints. It also looks at the interaction between climate and nutrient reduction policy and the extent to which one policy can be used to meet the other’s objectives. We use a non-linear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use to assess the economic impacts of climate and water policies at the New Zealand territorial authority level. The spatially explicit agro-environmental economic model estimates changes in land use, agricultural output, land management, and environmental impacts. The policies investigated include a range of carbon prices on land-based emissions ($0–30/tCO\(_{2\mathrm{e}}\)) as well a range of prices on nitrogen leaching from diffuse sources ($0–30/kgN). We estimate that implementing stand-alone greenhouse gas and nutrient emissions reduction policies for the agricultural and forestry sectors will create environmental benefits outside the scope of the policy. However, not all environmental outputs improve, and net farm revenue declines by between 0 and 11%. Simultaneously implementing the two policies results in the desired goals of reductions in nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions with a marginal economic burden on landowners (i.e. 1–2% additional loss in farm profit relative to a stand-alone policy).     

Greening Asia's Economic Development

Asia is facing serious environmental challenges including urban air pollution and the effects of global climate change. As a major source of greenhouse gases, what happens in Asia will play a crucial role in determining the extent to which the world warms over coming decades. This paper reviews key environmental challenges faced by the region and the growing opportunities for a transition to a cleaner economy powered by zero‐emission energy sources. Economic mechanisms – including emissions pricing, reverse auctions, and renewable portfolio standards with green certificate schemes – have the potential to underpin a much greener development model for the Asian Century.     

Incorporating methane into ecological footprint analysis: A case study of Ireland

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) accounting is important to global ecological footprint analysis. However methane (CH₄), with a global warming potential (GWP) 25 times that of CO₂, should not be neglected as an environmental indicator for informed environmental management. While this is a significant component, the CH₄ associated with imported embodied energy should also be included in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. This study proposes an initial method for incorporating methane into ecological footprint analyses and hopes to inform future debate on its inclusion. In order to account for differences in methane intensities from exporting countries, methane intensities for OECD countries were calculated using emission and energy consumption estimates taken directly from National Inventory Reports (NIR), published in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For other countries the methane intensities were estimated using energy balances published by the International Energy Association (IEA) and IPCC default emission factors. In order to estimate embodied organic methane, material imports and exports were translated into units (such as live animals) capable of conversion into methane emissions. A significant increase in Ireland's footprint results from the inclusion of the GWP of methane is included within the footprint calculation.     

Global impacts of the Kyoto agreement: results from the MS-MRT model

This paper analyzes the economic impacts on different regions of the world of a global agreement to limit carbon emissions. A multi-sector, multi-region trade model (MS-MRT) is developed that focuses on the international trade aspects of climate change policy. These include the distribution of impacts on economic welfare, international trade and investment across regions, the spillover effects of carbon emission limits in Annex 1 countries on non-Annex 1 countries, carbon leakage, changes in terms of trade and industry output, and the effects of international emissions trading. Our central estimates are presented with a set of sensitivity tests to assess the extent to which our conclusions depend on elasticity and baseline assumptions. A technical appendix presents algebraic details of the model structure and calibration.     

International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy

ne of the major obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement on global warming is the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for individual countries. Long-standing tensions between industrialized and developing countries have raised the issue of equity in burden-sharing. Moreover, individual industrialized nations have pleaded special circumstances and have sought differentiation in their obligations. This paper analyzes alternative rules for distributing tradable carbon dioxide emissions permits. A non-linear programming model, which distinguishes between allocation-based and outcome-based rules, is used to analyze the relative welfare outcomes. The model is applied to the world body of nations and yields several important policy implications.     

OFFSETTING NEW CO2 EMISSIONS: A RATIONAL FIRST GREENHOUSE POLICY STEP

This paper describes and assesses a policy to slow the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere. Policy governing new CO₂ sources would either prevent emissions, procure compensating emissions reductions, or sequester emissions in sinks. The paper uses electric power plants to demonstrate the mechanics of the policy and the control or offset choices. Offset options include scrubbing, fuel switching, investments in energy conservation and efficiency, and afforestation.
Costs per ton ofC0₂ sequestered range from $1.35 for planting shade trees to $59.41 for scrubbing. All options except scrubbing cost less than $11.00, and the median cost is around $6.00 per ton removed. Planting trees on erodible cropland in conjunction with the Conservation Reserve Program combines the goals of reduced erosion, surplus agricultural production, and greenhouse warming. This policy is a first sane step toward reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Having an international framework for managing emissions is most desirable. In the interim, however, the United States can demonstrate environmental leadership, generate substantial conservation benefits, and spark ingenuity in searching for alternatives, broadening the options, and lowering the ultimate costs of reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Border carbon adjustments and unilateral incentives to regulate the climate

It is suggested that trade measures should be used to induce exporters to adopt more ambitious climate policy and reduce global emissions. However, a tariff and the exporter's emission tax are likely substitutes, which would undermine the rationale for these trade measures. This paper examines incentives to regulate the climate under border carbon adjustment (BCA), defined as an import duty of a magnitude determined by the difference in emission taxes between trade partners. Unlike a tariff, a BCA can induce the exporter to adopt a higher tax, suggesting that the BCA and tariff are not equally effective at targeting global emission levels and that the features of the border measure matter in assessing the effectiveness of trade policy in targeting global emissions.     

Games of Climate Change with International Trade

We analyse games of greenhouse gas emission reduction in which the emissions and the emission reduction costs of one country depend on other countries' emission abatement. In an analytically tractable model, we show that international trade effects on costs and emissions can either increase or decrease incentives to reduce emissions and to cooperate on emission abatement; in some specifications, optimal emission reduction is unaffected by trade. We therefore specify the model further, calibrating it to larger models that estimate the costs of emission reduction, trade effects, and impacts of climate change. If trade effects are driven by total emission reduction costs of other countries cooperation is slightly more difficult than in the case without trade effects. If trade effects are determined by relative emission reduction efforts in other countries, cooperation becomes easier. Carbon leakage does not affect our qualitative insights, although it does change the numbers.     

Getting Cars Off the Road: The Cost-Effectiveness of an Episodic Pollution Control Program

Ground-level ozone remains a serious problem in the United States. Because ozone non-attainment is a summer problem, episodic rather than continuous controls of ozone precursors are possible. We evaluate the costs and emissions reductions of a program that requires people to buy permits to drive on high-ozone days. We estimate the demand function for permits based on a survey of 1,300 households in the Washington, DC, metropolitan area. Assuming that all vehicle owners comply with the scheme, the permit program would reduce nitrogen oxides ( $\text{ NO }_{\mathrm{x}}$ ) by 42 tons per Code Red day at a permit price of $75. Allowing for non-compliance by 15 % of respondents reduces the effectiveness of the scheme to 33 tons of $\text{ NO }_{\mathrm{x}}$ per day. The cost per ozone season of achieving these reductions is approximately $9 million (2008 USD). Although year-round measures, such as the Tier II emissions standards, might be preferred on benefit-cost grounds, an episodic permit system might be considered as an interim measure before the Tier II emissions standards are fully reflected in the vehicle fleet.     

论温室气体排放管制的政治学根据

温室气体排放管制的政治学根据包括绿色政治和政治合法性两个方面。在绿色政治的大背景下,国际政治和国内政治都将温室气体排放管制问题放到了一个非常重要的位置。政府对温室气体排放行为进行管制是实现和维护其政治合法性的重要途径。温室气体排放管制本身是政府作为公共权力主体应当提供的一种特殊公共产品。温室气体排放管制是政府履行其社会职能的重要方面。温室气体排放管制的目的是为社会提供环境公共产品——安全的气候。作为地球村的一员,每个国家应当积极采取相关法律政策措施促进温室气体减排。     

生物碳汇类型的特性研究

温室气体增加被认为是全球变暖的主要原因,CO2是大气中最重要的温室气体,在对温室效应和全球气候变暖的贡献中,占70％。为应对全球变暖,各国采取多种措施致力于温室气体的减排增汇。减少二氧化碳温室效应,除人工减排增汇外,自然界生态系统的生物碳汇功能起着主导作用。生物碳汇主要类型有森林等陆生植物碳汇、水生高等植物和低等植物碳汇、水生高等动物碳汇等等,各种类型生物碳汇功效不尽相同,各具特性。     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

欧盟碳排放交易发展最新趋势及其启示

欧盟碳排放交易体系是目前全球最完备、影响面最大的温室气体排放权交易市场,对其发展历程、有关经验教训的深入剖析,有助于指导我国的碳市场建立实践。通过对欧盟碳市场的发展历程、主要特点、市场效果等进行系统梳理,特别是对其最新动向与发展趋势进行了深入分析,并探讨欧盟碳市场的成功经验与不足之处,在此基础上,给出了对中国建立和发展碳排放交易体系的几点启示。