FISCAL POLICY IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH PUBLIC CAPITAL AND POLLUTION

This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model with public capital and environmental pollution. I assume that pollution is due to aggregate production, and that it does not have a direct effect on production but only reduces household utility. I study the growth effects of fiscal policy for the model on the balanced growth path, taking transition dynamics into account. I then analyse the welfare effects of fiscal policy along the balanced growth path. Finally, I show how the fiscal parameters must be set so that the competitive economy replicates the social optimum.     

Fiscal policy under a minimum‐time objective

In an endogenous growth model, we characterize the fiscal policy driven by a minimum‐time objective of economic development. We find that in equilibrium government should levy the highest possible consumption taxes, reduce public expenditures to the lowest possible level, and keep labor income tax rate and capital income tax rate satisfy a substitution relationship at the balanced budget constraint. We also identify the condition under which income tax rate should be set to zero. We further find that the equilibrium fiscal policy is equivalent to the growth‐maximizing fiscal policy, whereas it generally deviates from the welfare‐maximizing fiscal policy. We hence identify a circumstance where setting the policy goal of reaching an economic‐performance target as soon as possible cannot be justified in the sense of maximizing the welfare of households.     

Longevity and environmental quality in an OLG model

Whereas existing OLG models with endogenous longevity neglect the impact of environmental quality on mortality, this paper studies the design of the optimal public policy in a two-period OLG model where longevity is influenced positively by health expenditures, but negatively by pollution due to production. It is shown that if agents, when choosing how much to spend on health, do not internalize the impact of their decision on environmental quality (i.e. the space available for each person), the decentralization of the social optimum requires a tax not only on capital income (to internalize the pollution externality), but, also, on health spending (to internalize the congestion externality). We also examine the second-best policy under a limited set of taxation instruments, and explore its sensitivity to the pollution process and to individual preferences.     

Environment,public debt,and epidemics

We study whether fiscal policies, especially public debt, can help to curb the macroeconomic and health consequences of epidemics. Our approach is based on three main features: we introduce the dynamics of epidemics in an overlapping generations model to take into account that old people are more vulnerable; people are more easily infected when pollution is high; public spending in health care and public debt can be used to tackle the effects of epidemics. We show that fiscal policies can promote convergence to a stable disease-free steady state. When public policies are not able to permanently eradicate the epidemic, public debt, and income transfers could reduce the number of infected people and increase capital and GDP per capita. As a prerequisite, pollution intensity should not be too high. Finally, we define a household subsidy policy that eliminates income and welfare inequalities between healthy and infected individuals.     

Less Government—More Wealth? On the Macroeconomics of a Smaller Public Sector in Europe

In this paper, we analyze the reactions of European economies to a fiscal policy strategy aiming at diminishing the public sector. Within the framework of the MSG3 model, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, we perform several simulation experiments to explore the effects of reducing government expenditures permanently in different phases of the business cycle. For this purpose, we combine the fiscal contraction with negative and positive, Euro Area-wide and global, supply and demand shocks. It turns out that adverse Keynesian effects on output and employment tend to be mostly weak and short-lived, whereas long-run effects on output and employment are favorable. Due to these long-run effects, the fiscal contraction policy raises welfare as measured by an asymmetric quadratic objective function. The size of these welfare effects depends on the initial situation in a non-trivial manner.     

Environmental Degradation,Longevity, and the Dynamics of Economic Development

I construct a two-period overlapping generations model in which longevity is positively affected by public spending on health services and negatively affected by pollution. It is shown that the parameters which determine the extent of environmental degradation (i.e., emission rate and pollution abatement) may also represent additional factors affecting the dynamics of the economy, the likelihood of multiple (non-trivial) steady-state equilibria and the emergence of poverty traps. The distribution of public spending between public health care and pollution abatement that maximizes equilibrium income is also derived. This distribution of spending minimizes the threshold which the economy needs to surpass in order to avoid a poverty trap while, under certain circumstances, it can maximize equilibrium welfare as well.     

PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE IN MONETARY BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS

This paper assesses the transmission of fiscal policy shocks in a New Keynesian framework where government expenditures contribute to aggregate production. It is shown that even if the impact of government expenditures on production is small, this assumption helps to reconcile the models' predictions about fiscal policy effects with recent empirical evidence. In particular, it is shown that government expenditures can lead to a rise in private consumption, real wages, and employment if the government share is not too large and public finance does not solely rely on distortionary taxation. When government expenditures are partially financed by public debt, unit labor costs fall in response to a fiscal expansion, such that inflation tends to decline. Households are willing to raise consumption if monetary policy is active, i.e. ensures that the real interest rate rises with inflation. Otherwise, private consumption can also be crowded out, as in the conventional case where government expenditures are not productive.     

中国地方公共支出规模的膨胀性、成因及其控制

各国公共支出规模膨胀过程中的潜在问题,特别是欧洲一些国家的财政危机引起了人们的广泛关注。所以,研究在调整社会福利的同时降低政府公共支出规模的问题,就显得非常重要。根据中国省级政府的面板数据研究,结果发现:城市化对于政府支出规模具有明显的扩张效应,公共教育需求却具有明显的规模经济效应。基于实证分析的结果,未来中国的地方财政必须要优化支出结构、强化支出管理,在"有增有减、减大于增"的政策取向上进行改革。     

Optimal monetary policy in the presence of food price subsidies

Food price subsidies are a prevalent means by which fiscal authorities may counteract food price volatility in middle-income countries (MIC). We develop a DSGE model for a MIC that captures this key channel of a policy induced price smoothing mechanism that is different to, yet in parallel with, the classic Calvo price stickiness approach, which can have consequential effects for monetary policy. We then use the model to address how the joint fiscal and monetary policy responds to an increase in inflation driven by a food price shock can affect welfare. We show that, in the presence of credit constrained households and households with a significant share of food expenditures, a coordinated reaction of fiscal and monetary policies via subsidized price targeting can improve aggregate welfare. Subsidies smooth prices and consumption, especially for credit constrained households, which can consequently result in an interest rate reaction less intensely with subsidized price targeting compared with headline price targeting.     

Fiscal Consolidations: A Theoretical Essay with a Heterogeneous-Agent Model

Since the emergence of the financial crisis, most of the EU countries have promoted impressive public interventions to support financial institutions, contributing to a significant rise in general government gross debt-to-GDP ratios. As such, the issue of how to best pursue a fiscal consolidation will become crucial regarding the fiscal policy stance. This paper aims at characterizing four different stylized debt consolidation strategies extensively identified in the literature (one pure revenue-based and three expenditure-based) in order to assess welfare affects and, in particular, the inequality effects involved. For this purpose, we built a general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model capable of exploring the relationship between fiscal policy and the endogenous cross-section distribution of income and wealth. Moreover, we decompose the impacts on welfare criteria in order to distinguish pure efficiency effects from insurance and inequality effects. According to our simulations, the adjustment based on the reduction of unproductive expenditures came out to be the most welfare-enhancing compared to those based on tax increases or on social transfer reductions.     

Fiscal Policy and Equitable Growth

This paper continues the study of optimal fiscal policy in a growing economy by exploring a case in which the government simultaneously provides three main categories of expenditures with distortionary tax finance: public production services, public consumption services, and state-contingent redistributive transfers. The paper shows that in a general-equilibrium model with given exogenous fiscal policy, a nonmonotonic relation exists between the suboptimal long-run growth rate in a competitive economy and distortionary tax rates. When fiscal policy is endogenously chosen at a social optimum, the relation between the rate of growth and tax rates is always negative. These two properties suggest that an alternative set of government policy instruments affects the response of private sector investment to fiscal policy. Moreover, the different properties of exogenous and endogenous fiscal policy theoretically account for the difference in the relation between economic growth and fiscal policy in empirical studies.     

The impact of decentralization of health services on health outcomes: evidence from Canada

This article contributes to the limited empirical literature on the impact of decentralization on economic welfare by investigating the hypothesis that shifts towards more fiscal decentralization in health services would be accompanied by improvements in population health. Building on a conventional public finance model applied to health care, this hypothesis is tested on a panel data of the highly decentralized Canadian provinces during the period 1979 to 1995. The results of the exploratory empirical analysis presented in this article suggest that fiscal decentralization of health services in Canada has had a positive and substantial influence on the effectiveness of public policy in improving a population's health over the period studied.     

Tax Expenditures on Health in Australia: 1960–61 to 1988–89

Commonwealth government tax expenditures arise because departures from the tax structure produce favourable tax treatment of particular types of activities or taxpayers. Such tax concessions can be used in the same way as direct expenditures to give effect to government policies, and in fact are often used as substitutes for direct expenditures. Although estimates of tax expenditures on health in more recent times are readily available, this form of subsidisation of the health sector has not been used heavily since the introduction of Medicare in 1984. It is for the period spanning the 1960s and the 1970s, when tax expenditures were a much more important source of health care finance, that consistent estimates are lacking. This article presents estimates of the revenue cost of income tax concessions for health in Australia over the period 1960–61 to 1988–89 and integrates these estimates into the currently available health expenditure statistics. It is concluded that failure to allow for tax expenditures on health when analysing public expenditures on health in Australia can lead to misleading conclusions about the net fiscal impact of changes in the Commonwealth's health expenditure policy. In particular, the fiscal effect of introducing Medihank in 1975 is significantly lower if account is taken of changes to tax concessions on health occurring at the same time. Likewise, the net cost of the introduction of Medicare in 1984 is overstated by measures based on direct outlays alone.     

A political foundation of public investment and welfare spending

This paper develops a political economy model to examine the implications of political selection under an authoritarian regime. We formalize the fiscal policy choice of local governments, focusing on two political selection mechanisms and their implications for public investment and welfare spending. A growth-oriented promotion system induces local officials to increase public investment, which may increase output but crowd out welfare transfers. This mimics the recent investment-driven growth in China and relatively low effort to tackle high inequality. Under a broader incentive structure, we show that it is possible for an authoritarian regime to attain the social welfare of a democracy.     

Tax Reform with Useful Public Expenditures

We examine the effects of tax reform in an endogenous growth with two types of useful public expenditures. The optimal fiscal policy shifts the tax base to private consumption and generally requires a change in the size of government. If a tax reform holds the size of government fixed to satisfy a revenue‐neutrality constraint, then the reform will be suboptimal; theory alone cannot tell us if welfare will be improved. For some model calibrations, we find that a revenue‐neutral consumption tax reform can result in large welfare gains. For other quite plausible calibrations, the exact same reform can result in tiny or even negative welfare gains as the revenue‐neutrality constraint becomes more severely binding. Overall, our results highlight the uncertainty surrounding the potential welfare benefits of fundamental tax reform.     

To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-cyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity and consumption habits, as the particular market failures justifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and allow policy instruments to react to the output gap and the debt-to-output ratio. A welfare analysis reveals that the most effective instrument-target combination is to use public consumption to stabilize the output gap. Moreover, welfare gains from counter-cyclical fiscal policy are much stronger in the presence of wage rigidities compared with consumption habits. Finally, since active policy and automatic stabilizers are substitutes, it is possible that relatively undistorted economies may be in need of countercyclical fiscal action due to inadequate automatic stabilizers.     

Stabilization policy,infrastructure investment,and welfare in a small open economy

Using a two-sector neoclassical growth model in an open economy setting with heterogeneous agents, this paper studies the distributional effects and welfare implications of a joint monetary and fiscal policy response to public infrastructure expansion in emerging market economies. The results show that fiscal stabilization policy is critical for achieving fiscal sustainability and price stability. With joint support of monetary and fiscal policy, government infrastructure investment provides significant welfare gains to the economy, and the choice of fiscal instruments has major distributional effects across agents: saving households accrue the highest welfare gains with new bond issuance, while hand-to-mouth consumers are better off when non-distorting taxes are adjusted. These potential tradeoffs in welfare due to households’ differing responses to infrastructure expansion have important implications for policy making.     

The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures

This paper analyses how the functional components and sub-components of government expenditures are affected by fiscal consolidations. A fixed-effects estimator is employed over a panel of 15 European Union countries during the period 1990–2012. The results show that spending on public services increases during fiscal consolidations, while spending on defence, public order, health, education and social protection is significantly cut. A more disaggregated analysis proves that fiscal consolidations are harmful for important social expenditures, in particular, for those related to citizens’ safety, health assistance, social protection and investment in human capital. This evidence is even stronger in a particular group of countries, known in the literature as PIIGS. Hence, fiscal consolidations can have important implications on the living standards of the more economically vulnerable citizens.     

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidation and Welfare Composition of Spending on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections between 1978 and 2006

This study attempts to make a contribution to the field of spending aspects of fiscal policy and their impacts on electoral outcome. Due to varying degrees of financial responsibilities and commitments to provide public goods and services, US state governments serve as a perfectly natural laboratory to test the electoral significance of fiscal policies. We adopt a probit model, with several specifications, to determine significant impacts of fiscal consolidation and increases in welfare spending on US gubernatorial elections from 1978 to 2006. The analyses show that voters are more concerned about the increase in debt than current budget deficits. An increase in welfare spending is negatively associated with reelection. Moreover, the impact of taxation on gubernatorial elections turns out to be insignificant. In particular, findings suggest that the political business cycle model does not hold true in US gubernatorial elections. Expansionary fiscal policy right before the election may not have crucial impacts on the chances of an incumbent winning the election.     

The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.